<p><strong>闪迪</strong>（SNDK +11.54%）自 2025 年初从 <strong>西部数据</strong> 分拆以来，已经实现了自我重塑。这个曾经专注于便携式存储的消费品牌，现在已转向人工智能的企业存储解决方案。</p>
<p>这一转变使闪迪成为华尔街上最热门的交易之一。在过去一年中，股价上涨超过 4800%，投资者开始超越传统的人工智能硬件公司，如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong>，将资金投入到内存芯片行业。</p>
<p>以下是投资者应该了解的关于这只人工智能基础设施股票的信息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzOTYvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0zLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2880" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzOTYvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0zLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>华尔街的中位目标价暗示闪迪股票有 22% 的下行空间</h2>
<p>一些华尔街分析师认为闪迪股票在未来一年将会上涨。Susquehanna 的 Mehdi Hosseini 最近 将其目标价提高至每股 3250 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 2185 美元的价格有 49% 的上涨空间。但大多数分析师认为该股票价格过高。</p>
<p>在 28 位分析师中，闪迪的中位目标价为每股 1702 美元。这意味着有 22% 的下行空间。一些分析师预计将会出现重大损失。<strong>晨星</strong> 的 William Kerwin 和 RBC Capital 的 Srini Pajjuri 将目标定在每股 1000 美元，这意味着相较于当前价格有 54% 的下行空间。</p>
<h2>闪迪受益于前所未有的内存芯片供应短缺</h2>
<p>闪迪设计和制造基于 NAND 闪存技术的存储产品，包括用于消费电子的嵌入式存储、便携式存储卡和用于企业数据中心的固态硬盘（SSD）。闪迪通过与日本内存芯片制造商 Kioxia 的合资企业实现了成本节约和供应链安全，这帮助它与三星和 SK 海力士等更大竞争对手竞争。</p>
<p>NAND 闪存被用作 人工智能 训练数据和模型的长期存储，人工智能基础设施的需求导致了严重的供应短缺。反过来，NAND 价格在第一季度几乎翻倍，并在过去一年中上涨了三倍，因为 超大规模云计算公司 争相确保人工智能数据中心的存储能力。价格飙升为闪迪带来了非常强劲的财务业绩。</p>
<p>在 2026 财年第三季度（截至 4 月），销售额增长 251%，达到 59 亿美元，较上季度 61% 的增长速度大幅加快，主要得益于数据中心部门的特别强劲表现。闪迪还报告了每稀释股非 GAAP（调整后）收益为 23.41 美元，而去年同期为每稀释股亏损 0.30 美元。</p>
<h2>空头认为历史会重演，当内存芯片需求崩溃时</h2>
<p>空头认为闪迪及其竞争对手又一次陷入了周期性的繁荣与萧条，这一直是内存芯片行业的一个显著特征。例如，疫情期间的需求激增后，2022 年出现了崩溃。制造商们通过减少生产来应对，但这使他们未能为生成式人工智能时代做好准备，导致了另一次繁荣。</p>
<p>支持这一看跌观点的是：尽管最近一个季度销售增长显著，闪迪在 NAND 市场的市场份额仅保持不变。内存芯片与逻辑芯片（CPU 和 GPU）不同，内存芯片大多是可互换的，这意味着闪迪的产品并不特别独特。因此，该公司表现良好并不是因为它具有竞争优势，而是因为高涨的潮水提升了所有船只。</p>
<p>&#34;我们不认为闪迪拥有 经济护城河&#34;，晨星的 William Kerwin 写道。&#34;我们认为闪存芯片是商品，没有定价权，而是由市场供需动态决定价格。&#34;</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1NOREsucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="闪迪股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1NOREsucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: SNDK</h2>
<p>闪迪</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>（11.54%）$225.95</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$2184.75</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$3240 亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$2029.00 - $2191.69</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$40.10 - $2191.69</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1220 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1480 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>56.04%</p>
<h2>多头认为当前内存周期不同，但华尔街并不信服</h2>
<p>闪迪的多头认为当前的内存芯片周期可能不同。超大规模云计算公司非常渴望确保供应可见性，因此与内存芯片制造商签署了多年采购协议。这与历史规范有所不同，客户合同通常是以月为单位，而不是以年为单位。</p>
<p>确实，闪迪在上个季度宣布了五个多年合作伙伴关系。&#34;这些合作伙伴关系支持闪迪的持久、结构性更高的收益，以及显著更可预测和不那么周期性的业务，&#34;首席执行官 David Goeckeler 告诉分析师。&#34;我们认为这标志着我们业务的根本演变，集中在更深层次的客户对齐、增强的可见性和长期价值创造上。&#34;</p>
<p>华尔街对多头叙述表示怀疑。毕竟，告诉自己 “这次会有所不同” 通常是危险的。分析师预计当前的内存周期将在 2029 年崩溃。因此，普遍预期闪迪的调整后收益将在 2029 财年之前每年增长 25%。这使得当前 70 倍的市盈率看起来昂贵。股东应考虑削减他们的持仓。</p>

闪迪

SNDG

SNDQ

SNDU

SNXX

<p>Sandisk (SNDK) 股票在过去一年中飙升了 4800%，这主要得益于人工智能驱动的 NAND 闪存需求。尽管 2026 财年第三季度销售额增长了 251%，华尔街仍然保持谨慎，给出的中位目标价为 1,702 美元，暗示有 22% 的下行空间。分析师指出，尽管 Sandisk 新签订了多年的客户合同以稳定收益，但仍对存储芯片的周期性特征和缺乏竞争护城河表示担忧</p>

<p><strong>Sandisk</strong>( SNDK +11.54%) has reinvented itself since being spun off from <strong>Western Digital</strong> in early 2025. The company, once a sleepy consumer brand focused on portable storage, has reoriented around enterprise storage solutions for artificial intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>闪迪</strong>（SNDK +11.54%）自 2025 年初从 <strong>西部数据</strong> 分拆以来，已经实现了自我重塑。这个曾经专注于便携式存储的消费品牌，现在已转向人工智能的企业存储解决方案。</p>
</div><p>That evolution has made Sandisk one of the hottest trades on Wall Street. The stock added more than 4,800% in the past year as investors diversified beyond traditional AI hardware companies like <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Broadcom</strong>, pouring capital into the memory chip industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一转变使闪迪成为华尔街上最热门的交易之一。在过去一年中，股价上涨超过 4800%，投资者开始超越传统的人工智能硬件公司，如 <strong>英伟达</strong> 和 <strong>博通</strong>，将资金投入到内存芯片行业。</p>
</div><p>Here's what investors should know about this AI infrastructure stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是投资者应该了解的关于这只人工智能基础设施股票的信息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUzOTYvYnVsbC1hbmQtYmVhci0zLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Golden bull and bear figurines stand on top of a smartphone." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875396%2Fbull-and-bear-3.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Wall Street's median target price implies 22% downside in Sandisk stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>华尔街的中位目标价暗示闪迪股票有 22% 的下行空间</h2>
</div><p>A few Wall Street analysts think Sandisk stock is headed higher during the next year. Mehdi Hosseini at Susquehanna recently raised his target price to $3,250 per share. That implies 49% upside from the current share price of $2,185. But most analysts think the stock is too expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些华尔街分析师认为闪迪股票在未来一年将会上涨。Susquehanna 的 Mehdi Hosseini 最近 将其目标价提高至每股 3250 美元。这意味着相较于当前每股 2185 美元的价格有 49% 的上涨空间。但大多数分析师认为该股票价格过高。</p>
</div><p>Among 28 analysts, Sandisk has a median target price of $1,702 per share. That implies 22% downside. And some analysts expect substantial losses. William Kerwin at <strong>Morningstar</strong> and Srini Pajjuri at RBC Capital have set their targets at $1,000 per share, which implies 54% downside from the current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 28 位分析师中，闪迪的中位目标价为每股 1702 美元。这意味着有 22% 的下行空间。一些分析师预计将会出现重大损失。<strong>晨星</strong> 的 William Kerwin 和 RBC Capital 的 Srini Pajjuri 将目标定在每股 1000 美元，这意味着相较于当前价格有 54% 的下行空间。</p>
</div><h2>Sandisk is benefiting from an unprecedented memory chip supply shortage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>闪迪受益于前所未有的内存芯片供应短缺</h2>
</div><p>Sandisk designs and manufactures storage products based on NAND flash technology, including embedded storage for consumer electronics, portable memory cards, and solid-state drives (SSD) for enterprise data centers. Sandisk realizes cost savings and supply chain security through its joint venture with Japanese memory chipmaker Kioxia, which helps it compete with larger rivals like Samsung and SK Hynix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪迪设计和制造基于 NAND 闪存技术的存储产品，包括用于消费电子的嵌入式存储、便携式存储卡和用于企业数据中心的固态硬盘（SSD）。闪迪通过与日本内存芯片制造商 Kioxia 的合资企业实现了成本节约和供应链安全，这帮助它与三星和 SK 海力士等更大竞争对手竞争。</p>
</div><p>NAND flash memory is used as long-term storage for artificial intelligence training data and models, and demand for AI infrastructure has led to a severe supply shortage. In turn, NAND prices nearly doubled in the first quarter and tripled in the past year as hyperscalers clamored to ensure sufficient storage capacity for AI data centers. Skyrocketing prices have led to very strong financial results for Sandisk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NAND 闪存被用作 人工智能 训练数据和模型的长期存储，人工智能基础设施的需求导致了严重的供应短缺。反过来，NAND 价格在第一季度几乎翻倍，并在过去一年中上涨了三倍，因为 超大规模云计算公司 争相确保人工智能数据中心的存储能力。价格飙升为闪迪带来了非常强劲的财务业绩。</p>
</div><p>In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended in April), sales rose 251% to $5.9 billion, an extreme acceleration from 61% growth in the previous quarter, driven by especially strong results in the data center segment. Sandisk also reported non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $23.41 per diluted share, up from a loss of $0.30 per diluted share in the same period last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 财年第三季度（截至 4 月），销售额增长 251%，达到 59 亿美元，较上季度 61% 的增长速度大幅加快，主要得益于数据中心部门的特别强劲表现。闪迪还报告了每稀释股非 GAAP（调整后）收益为 23.41 美元，而去年同期为每稀释股亏损 0.30 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Bears argue history will repeat when memory chip demand collapses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>空头认为历史会重演，当内存芯片需求崩溃时</h2>
</div><p>Bears argue Sandisk and its competitors are caught in yet another boom-and-bust cycle, which has been a defining quality of the memory chip industry over time. For instance, booming demand during the pandemic was followed by a collapse in 2022. Manufacturers responded by scaling back production, but that left them unprepared for the generative AI era, which has led to another boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>空头认为闪迪及其竞争对手又一次陷入了周期性的繁荣与萧条，这一直是内存芯片行业的一个显著特征。例如，疫情期间的需求激增后，2022 年出现了崩溃。制造商们通过减少生产来应对，但这使他们未能为生成式人工智能时代做好准备，导致了另一次繁荣。</p>
</div><p>Supporting that bearish point of view: Despite tremendous sales growth in the most recent quarter, Sandisk merely maintained its market share in NAND. Memory chips, unlike logic chips ( CPUs and GPUs), are mostly interchangeable, meaning Sandisk's products are not especially unique. So, the company is not doing well because it has a competitive edge, but rather because a high tide has lifted all ships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持这一看跌观点的是：尽管最近一个季度销售增长显著，闪迪在 NAND 市场的市场份额仅保持不变。内存芯片与逻辑芯片（CPU 和 GPU）不同，内存芯片大多是可互换的，这意味着闪迪的产品并不特别独特。因此，该公司表现良好并不是因为它具有竞争优势，而是因为高涨的潮水提升了所有船只。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We don't believe Sandisk holds an economic moat,&#34; writes William Kerwin at Morningstar. &#34;We view flash memory chips as commodities that don't command any pricing power, instead being governed by market supply/demand dynamics that determine pricing.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们不认为闪迪拥有 经济护城河&#34;，晨星的 William Kerwin 写道。&#34;我们认为闪存芯片是商品，没有定价权，而是由市场供需动态决定价格。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1NOREsucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Sandisk Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FSNDK.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: SNDK</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: SNDK</h2>
</div><p>Sandisk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪迪</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(11.54%) $225.95</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（11.54%）$225.95</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$2184.75</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2184.75</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$324B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3240 亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$2029.00 - $2191.69</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2029.00 - $2191.69</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$40.10 - $2191.69</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$40.10 - $2191.69</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>12.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1220 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>14.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1480 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>56.04%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>56.04%</p>
</div><h2>Bulls argue the current memory cycle is different, but Wall Street isn't convinced</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>多头认为当前内存周期不同，但华尔街并不信服</h2>
</div><p>Sandisk bulls argue the current memory chip cycle may be different. Hyperscalers are so eager to ensure supply visibility that they are signing multiyear purchase agreements with memory chip manufacturers. That represents a deviation from historical norms, where customer contracts were measured in months rather than years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪迪的多头认为当前的内存芯片周期可能不同。超大规模云计算公司非常渴望确保供应可见性，因此与内存芯片制造商签署了多年采购协议。这与历史规范有所不同，客户合同通常是以月为单位，而不是以年为单位。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Sandisk announced five multiyear partnerships last quarter. &#34;These partnerships support durable, structurally higher earnings and a significantly more predictable and less cyclical business for Sandisk,&#34; CEO David Goeckeler told analysts. &#34;We believe this marks a fundamental evolution of our business centered on deeper customer alignment, enhanced visibility, and long-term value creation.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实，闪迪在上个季度宣布了五个多年合作伙伴关系。&#34;这些合作伙伴关系支持闪迪的持久、结构性更高的收益，以及显著更可预测和不那么周期性的业务，&#34;首席执行官 David Goeckeler 告诉分析师。&#34;我们认为这标志着我们业务的根本演变，集中在更深层次的客户对齐、增强的可见性和长期价值创造上。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Wall Street doubts the bull narrative. After all, it's usually dangerous to tell yourself, &#34;This time will be different.&#34; Analysts expect the current memory cycle to collapse in 2029. So, the consensus estimate says Sandisk's adjusted earnings will increase at 25% annually through fiscal 2029. That makes the current valuation of 70 times earnings look expensive. Shareholders should consider trimming their positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街对多头叙述表示怀疑。毕竟，告诉自己 “这次会有所不同” 通常是危险的。分析师预计当前的内存周期将在 2029 年崩溃。因此，普遍预期闪迪的调整后收益将在 2029 财年之前每年增长 25%。这使得当前 70 倍的市盈率看起来昂贵。股东应考虑削减他们的持仓。</p>
</div>

This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Is Up 4,800% in the Past Year. Wall Street Says This Will Happen Next.

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西部数据

英伟达

博通

晨星信息

加拿大皇家银行

三星电子

Sandisk - WI

Western Digital - WI

NVIDIA Corporation

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

这只人工智能（AI）股票在过去一年中上涨了 4800%。华尔街预测接下来会发生什么