<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>特朗普任命的美联储主席可能希望加息威胁足够有效。但如果他这样做，股票可能会获得上涨空间。过去的加息周期可以作为参考。</p>
<p>根据凯文·沃什的说法，美联储正在发生变化。</p>
<p>凯文·沃什希望为美联储书写一个 “新篇章”，在这个篇章中，市场的声音比中央银行更响亮，甚至加息的威胁也可能有助于赢得抗击通胀的斗争。</p>
<p>美联储的指导减少可能会引入更多市场波动，但华尔街似乎已经开始接受这一想法。</p>
<p>&#34;我确实认为美联储说得少一点是件好事，&#34; SoFi 的首席市场策略师莉兹·托马斯表示。&#34;是的，这将是一个变化，&#34;她说，但这将让市场关注其他事情，而不是美联储的声明和前瞻性指引，这些只是最佳猜测，往往不准确，&#34;她补充道。</p>
<p>美联储在 6 月会议结束时保持利率不变，发布了一份简短声明，并为今年的加息留出了可能性。会后股票下跌，但它们仍然录得了周度涨幅。</p>
<p>政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在本周结束时为 4.177%，为 2025 年 2 月以来的最高水平，依据道琼斯市场数据。这表明投资者正在认真对待美联储加息的威胁，而通胀率超过 4%。</p>
<p>沃什在周三担任美联储主席的首次新闻发布会上重申了美联储将通胀降至 2% 的目标。更引起轰动的是他建议金融市场的定价应当主导，而不是美联储，来发出经济、利率和通胀可能走向何方的信号。</p>
<p>&#34;我喜欢沟通，&#34;富国银行投资研究所的高级全球市场策略师斯科特·伦说，并补充说在他作为货币交易员的 1980 年代，美联储的沟通太少了。</p>
<p>然而，华尔街的工作是&#34;对经济和通胀做出预测，&#34;伦说。&#34;我们的工作不是坐在那里猜测&#34;美联储可能会对此说些什么。</p>
<p>&#34;美联储往往是反应性的，&#34;伦补充道。&#34;他们跟随市场可能更好，而不是引领市场。&#34;他仍然不相信美联储需要加息，因为看起来只是暂时的油价冲击。</p>
<p>相反，他团队的预测是美联储将在当前的 3.5%-3.75% 区间内保持利率不变，直到 2027 年底，这将为比许多人在今年初预期的更长时间内提供更高的利率背景。</p>
<p>股票与过去的加息周期</p>
<p>现在还为时已早，无法判断美国与伊朗之间最新的、已经不稳定的 60 天停火是否会变成持久和平。油价 (CL00)(BRN00) 已经暴跌，但尚不清楚它们是否会保持在足够低的水平，以快速降低通胀，从而避免今年的美联储加息。</p>
<p>从积极的一面看，历史数据显示，过去的加息周期并没有使股市陷入困境。自 1990 年代初以来，标普 500 指数 SPX 在过去五个加息周期中有四个期间上涨，如下图所示。</p>
<p>关于人工智能经济</p>
<p>尽管借贷成本上升，经济却出乎意料地表现出韧性。在某些时候，对更强经济增长的乐观情绪帮助了牛市超越了科技领导地位。</p>
<p>但其主要的强劲来源也可能转变为弱点。企业借贷激增以推动人工智能竞赛。但美国家庭的储蓄率也急剧下降，这推动了消费，尽管实际收入与一年前相比已经收缩，如下图所示。</p>
<p>法国外贸银行指出，如果美国的储蓄率停止下降，消费者支出将与收入同步增长，而收入正在下降。</p>
<p>随着人工智能驱动的牛市持续，家庭感到更加富裕，&#34;这很好，直到资产价格再次下跌，&#34;法国外贸银行的全球策略师阿尔伯特·爱德华兹在周四的客户报告中表示。</p>
<p>&#34;因此，消费和投资都依赖于人工智能 ‘泡沫’ 不破裂，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>SoFi 的托马斯表示，如果美联储因为高通胀而需要加息，那对股票来说并不好。&#34;这可能有助于美联储的信誉，表明他们认真对待降低通胀，即使这会造成痛苦，&#34;她说。</p>
<p>&#34;但人工智能的推动需要继续，&#34;托马斯说。&#34;这就是支撑我们牛市的很多原因，&#34;她说。人们对人工智能提高生产力、降低通胀以及公司支出能够保持经济活力的热情也在增加，&#34;没有这个表演，就没有表演。&#34;</p>
<p>根据 FactSet，标普 500 指数在假期缩短的一周上涨了 0.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 上涨了 0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 上涨了 2.4%。所有三个指数距离其之前的历史最高点均不超过 2.1%。</p>
<p>Tomi Kilgore 和 Ken Jimenez 作出了贡献。</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），特朗普任命的美联储主席，主张减少中央银行的指导，建议金融市场应主导经济信号的传递。尽管这一转变可能会增加市场波动性，但华尔街分析师对此持积极态度，因为这使市场能够更专注于预测而非美联储的声明。历史数据显示，自 1990 年代以来，过去的加息周期并不一定会结束牛市，标普 500 指数在五个此类周期中有四个实现了上涨。然而，目前市场的韧性在很大程度上依赖于持续的人工智能驱动的乐观情绪和企业借贷</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>Trump-selected Fed chair may hope the threat of rate hikes is enough. But stocks might gain ground if he does. Past rate-hike cycles can be a guide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普任命的美联储主席可能希望加息威胁足够有效。但如果他这样做，股票可能会获得上涨空间。过去的加息周期可以作为参考。</p>
</div><p>Charges are afoot at the Federal Reserve, according to Kevin Warsh.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据凯文·沃什的说法，美联储正在发生变化。</p>
</div><p>Kevin Warsh wants to write a &#34;new chapter&#34; for the Federal Reserve, where markets talk louder than the central bank, and even the threat of rate hikes might help win the inflation fight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯文·沃什希望为美联储书写一个 “新篇章”，在这个篇章中，市场的声音比中央银行更响亮，甚至加息的威胁也可能有助于赢得抗击通胀的斗争。</p>
</div><p>Less Fed guidance risks introducing more volatility into markets, but Wall Street seems to be warming to the idea already.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储的指导减少可能会引入更多市场波动，但华尔街似乎已经开始接受这一想法。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I do think it's a good thing for the Fed to say a little less,&#34; said Liz Thomas, chief market strategist at SoFi. &#34;Yes, it would be a change,&#34; she said, but it would let markets focus on other things, instead of Fed statements and forward guidance, which are just a best guess and often incorrect, she added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我确实认为美联储说得少一点是件好事，&#34; SoFi 的首席市场策略师莉兹·托马斯表示。&#34;是的，这将是一个变化，&#34;她说，但这将让市场关注其他事情，而不是美联储的声明和前瞻性指引，这些只是最佳猜测，往往不准确，&#34;她补充道。</p>
</div><p>Fed officials wrapped up their June meeting by holding rates steady, issuing a brief statement and leaving the door open to rate hikes this year. Stocks fell afterward, but they posted weekly gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在 6 月会议结束时保持利率不变，发布了一份简短声明，并为今年的加息留出了可能性。会后股票下跌，但它们仍然录得了周度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y reacted by ending the week at 4.177%, the highest since February 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That signals investors are taking the threat of Fed rate hikes seriously, with inflation above 4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 在本周结束时为 4.177%，为 2025 年 2 月以来的最高水平，依据道琼斯市场数据。这表明投资者正在认真对待美联储加息的威胁，而通胀率超过 4%。</p>
</div><p>Warsh reiterated the Fed's goal of getting inflation down to 2%, during his first press briefing at the helm of the central bank on Wednesday. What caused more of a stir was his suggestion that pricing in financial markets should take the lead - not the Fed - in terms of signaling where the economy, rates and inflation could be headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什在周三担任美联储主席的首次新闻发布会上重申了美联储将通胀降至 2% 的目标。更引起轰动的是他建议金融市场的定价应当主导，而不是美联储，来发出经济、利率和通胀可能走向何方的信号。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I do like communication,&#34; said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, adding that there was too little Fed communication in the 1980s, when he was a currency trader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我喜欢沟通，&#34;富国银行投资研究所的高级全球市场策略师斯科特·伦说，并补充说在他作为货币交易员的 1980 年代，美联储的沟通太少了。</p>
</div><p>Yet Wall Street's job is to &#34;make projections on the economy and inflation,&#34; Wren said. &#34;Our job is not to sit there and wonder&#34; what the Fed might say about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，华尔街的工作是&#34;对经济和通胀做出预测，&#34;伦说。&#34;我们的工作不是坐在那里猜测&#34;美联储可能会对此说些什么。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed tends to be reactive,&#34; Wren added. &#34;It's probably better they follow the market, rather than lead.&#34; He still isn't convinced the Fed needs to hike rates, because of what looks to be a temporary oil shock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;美联储往往是反应性的，&#34;伦补充道。&#34;他们跟随市场可能更好，而不是引领市场。&#34;他仍然不相信美联储需要加息，因为看起来只是暂时的油价冲击。</p>
</div><p>Instead, his team's call is for the Fed to hold rates steady in the current 3.5%-to-3.75% range through the end of 2027, which would set the stage for a higher rate backdrop for much longer than many anticipated at the start of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他团队的预测是美联储将在当前的 3.5%-3.75% 区间内保持利率不变，直到 2027 年底，这将为比许多人在今年初预期的更长时间内提供更高的利率背景。</p>
</div><p>Stocks and past hiking cycles</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票与过去的加息周期</p>
</div><p>It's too early to tell if the latest, and already shaky, 60-day cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran turns into a lasting peace. Oil prices (CL00) (BRN00) have tumbled, but it's unclear that they will stay low enough to coax inflation down fast enough to avoid a Fed rate hike this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在还为时已早，无法判断美国与伊朗之间最新的、已经不稳定的 60 天停火是否会变成持久和平。油价 (CL00)(BRN00) 已经暴跌，但尚不清楚它们是否会保持在足够低的水平，以快速降低通胀，从而避免今年的美联储加息。</p>
</div><p>On the positive side, a historical look at the stock market shows that past rate-hike cycles didn't doom the stock market. Since the early 1990s, the S&amp;P 500 SPX rose during four of the five past hiking periods, as the below chart shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从积极的一面看，历史数据显示，过去的加息周期并没有使股市陷入困境。自 1990 年代初以来，标普 500 指数 SPX 在过去五个加息周期中有四个期间上涨，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p>About the AI economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于人工智能经济</p>
</div><p>The economy has been surprisingly resilient, even with higher borrowing costs in the background. At times, optimism around stronger economic growth has helped the bull market broaden out beyond its tech leadership.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管借贷成本上升，经济却出乎意料地表现出韧性。在某些时候，对更强经济增长的乐观情绪帮助了牛市超越了科技领导地位。</p>
</div><p>But its main source of strength could also turn into weakness. Corporate borrowing has been surging to fuel the artificial-intelligence race. But the savings rate of U.S. households also has plunged, which has helped drive consumption, even though real incomes have contracted from a year ago, as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但其主要的强劲来源也可能转变为弱点。企业借贷激增以推动人工智能竞赛。但美国家庭的储蓄率也急剧下降，这推动了消费，尽管实际收入与一年前相比已经收缩，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p>Société Générale notes that if the U.S. saving ratio stops falling, consumer spending will grow in line with income, which is falling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国外贸银行指出，如果美国的储蓄率停止下降，消费者支出将与收入同步增长，而收入正在下降。</p>
</div><p>Households are feeling wealthier as the AI-driven bull market continues, which is &#34;all well and good until asset prices go back down,&#34; said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, in a Thursday client note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着人工智能驱动的牛市持续，家庭感到更加富裕，&#34;这很好，直到资产价格再次下跌，&#34;法国外贸银行的全球策略师阿尔伯特·爱德华兹在周四的客户报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Hence both consumption and investment are dependent on the AI 'bubble' not bursting,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;因此，消费和投资都依赖于人工智能 ‘泡沫’ 不破裂，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>Thomas at SoFi said that if the Fed ends up needing to raise rates because of high inflation, that wouldn't be great for stocks. &#34;It may help the credibility of the Fed, showing they're serious about getting inflation back down, even if it creates pain,&#34; she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SoFi 的托马斯表示，如果美联储因为高通胀而需要加息，那对股票来说并不好。&#34;这可能有助于美联储的信誉，表明他们认真对待降低通胀，即使这会造成痛苦，&#34;她说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;But the AI push needs to keep going,&#34; Thomas said. &#34;That's a lot of what's holding us up,&#34; she said of the bull market. There's also enthusiasm around AI increasing productivity, bringing inflation down and hope that company spending can keep the economy humming, she said. &#34;Without that show, there is no show.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;但人工智能的推动需要继续，&#34;托马斯说。&#34;这就是支撑我们牛市的很多原因，&#34;她说。人们对人工智能提高生产力、降低通胀以及公司支出能够保持经济活力的热情也在增加，&#34;没有这个表演，就没有表演。&#34;</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 gained 0.9% in the holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP gained 2.4%, according to FactSet. All three indexes ended 2.1% or less away from their previous record highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet，标普 500 指数在假期缩短的一周上涨了 0.9%，道琼斯工业平均指数 DJIA 上涨了 0.7%，纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 上涨了 2.4%。所有三个指数距离其之前的历史最高点均不超过 2.1%。</p>
</div><p>Tomi Kilgore and Ken Jimenez contributed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Tomi Kilgore 和 Ken Jimenez 作出了贡献。</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-21-26 1842ET</p>
</div>

This bull market isn't going to end because of Fed rate hikes under Warsh

- 美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 计划改变市场与美联储的沟通方式。  
- 历史数据显示，过去的加息周期并未导致股市崩溃。  
- 美股在短假周涨幅显著，S&P 500 上涨 0.9%。

在沃什的领导下，这个牛市不会因为美联储的加息而结束