<p>美银证券发布研究报告称，重新出现的对美国加息潜在风险的担忧引发了香港房地产股票的近期调整。尽管该券商预计市场对一到两次加息的定价情景不会导致香港房价下跌，但也承认更激进的加息路径将带来风险。再加上来自中国大陆新出台的对外直接投资（ODI）法规的不确定性以及恒生指数的疲软表现，美银证券预计 2026 年下半年住宅销售势头将放缓，房价仅会温和增长（与年初至今累计 10% 的增长相比）。它略微下调了 2027 年香港房价增长预测，从 5% 的增长修正为持平至 5% 的增长。</p>
<p>基于更为温和的房价展望，以及对一些开发商每股净资产值预测的轻微下调和更广泛的目标折扣，该券商将香港房地产开发商的目标价平均下调了 9%。然而，美银证券预计温和的美国加息对房东的影响有限。</p>
<p>在股票偏好方面，美银证券偏好 LINK REIT（00823.HK）-0.200（-0.560%）短期卖空 219.76 百万；比例 25.920% 作为房东（预计股票回购将很快恢复），以及 SWIREPROPERTIES（01972.HK）-0.800（-3.781%）短期卖空 52.89 百万；比例 18.987% 和香港置地（受益于中环办公楼租金增长）。在开发商中，它更倾向于现金充裕的 CK ASSET（01113.HK）+0.020（+0.045%）短期卖空 32.20 百万；比例 10.659% 和 SINO LAND（00083.HK）-0.390（-3.562%）短期卖空 182.89 百万；比例 49.393%。该券商对 NEW WORLD DEV（00017.HK）+0.010（+0.142%）短期卖空 8.54 百万；比例 11.978%（受高杠杆影响）和 MTR CORPORATION（00066.HK）-0.600（-1.904%）短期卖空 349.31 百万；比例 67.668%（受高资本支出影响）维持了表现不佳的评级。</p>
<p>开发商的目标价和评级修订详情如下：</p>
<p>CK ASSET（01113.HK）+0.020（+0.045%）短期卖空 32.20 百万；比例 10.659% | 买入 | HKD53.5 -&gt; HKD53</p>
<p>HENDERSON LAND（00012.HK）-0.460（-1.780%）短期卖空 96.68 百万；比例 29.244% | 买入 | HKD34.4 -&gt; HKD31.7</p>
<p>SHK PPT（00016.HK）+0.600（+0.532%）短期卖空 497.39 百万；比例 21.469% | 中性 | HKD136 -&gt; HKD122</p>
<p>SINO LAND（00083.HK）-0.390（-3.562%）短期卖空 182.89 百万；比例 49.393% | 买入 | HKD13.5 -&gt; HKD12.2</p>
<p>NEW WORLD DEV（00017.HK）+0.010（+0.142%）短期卖空 8.54 百万；比例 11.978% | 表现不佳 | HKD5.2 -&gt; HKD4.9</p>
<p>WHARF HOLDINGS（00004.HK）-0.720（-3.846%）短期卖空 14.86 百万；比例 18.350% | 中性 | HKD26 -&gt; HKD21</p>
<p>KERRY PPT（00683.HK）-0.290（-1.568%）短期卖空 3.47 百万；比例 6.721% | 买入 | HKD26.2 -&gt; HKD23</p>
<p>关于行业展望，美银证券指出，中环办公市场可能受益于潜在的税收激励。渠道调查显示，香港正在考虑免除基金经理的投资利润税，这已经引发了对办公空间的对冲基金扩张需求。这预计将支持核心中环资产（如国际金融中心）的租金上行，并为香港置地和 SWIREPROPERTIES（01972.HK）-0.800（-3.781%）短期卖空 52.89 百万；比例 18.987% 等优质投资组合产生正的估值溢价。该券商将 2026 年中环办公租金预测从同比增长 5% 上调至 5%-10% 的增长。</p>
<p>在零售领域，强势美元可能削弱香港对东南亚游客的吸引力，但年初至今人民币的升值有助于支持大陆需求。同时，大众市场零售表现持续稳定，反映在 LINK REIT 和超市运营商的趋势中。（广告/数据）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短期卖空数据截至 2026-06-18 16:25。）</p>

新世界发展

信和置业

长实集团

香港置地控股

太古地产

<p>BofAS 将香港房地产开发商的目标价格平均下调了 9%，理由是预计由于美国加息担忧、内地 ODI 法规以及恒生指数表现疲弱，主要住宅销售势头将放缓，房地产价格增长温和。该券商偏好现金充裕的开发商，如长实集团和信和置业，同时对新世界发展维持 “跑输大市” 的评级。此外，BofAS 将 2026 年中央办公租金预测上调至同比增长 5%-10%，这将使太古地产和香港置地控股等房东受益</p>

<p>BofAS published a research report stating that renewed concerns over potential US rate hikes have triggered a recent correction in Hong Kong property stocks. While the broker expects the market’s priced-in scenario of one to two rate hikes will not lead to a decline in Hong Kong property prices, it acknowledged that a more aggressive interest rate path would pose risks. Coupled with uncertainties arising from new outbound direct investment (ODI) regulations in mainland China and the weak performance of the HSI, BofAS expects primary residential sales momentum to slow in 2H26, with property prices seeing only mild growth (compared with a cumulative 10% increase year-to-date). It slightly revised its 2027 Hong Kong property price growth forecast from a 5% increase to flat to 5% growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美银证券发布研究报告称，重新出现的对美国加息潜在风险的担忧引发了香港房地产股票的近期调整。尽管该券商预计市场对一到两次加息的定价情景不会导致香港房价下跌，但也承认更激进的加息路径将带来风险。再加上来自中国大陆新出台的对外直接投资（ODI）法规的不确定性以及恒生指数的疲软表现，美银证券预计 2026 年下半年住宅销售势头将放缓，房价仅会温和增长（与年初至今累计 10% 的增长相比）。它略微下调了 2027 年香港房价增长预测，从 5% 的增长修正为持平至 5% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>Based on a more moderate property price outlook, along with slight downward revisions to some developers’ net asset value per share forecasts and wider target discounts, the broker cut TPs for Hong Kong property developers by an average of 9%. However, BofAS expects moderate US rate hikes to have limited impact on landlords.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于更为温和的房价展望，以及对一些开发商每股净资产值预测的轻微下调和更广泛的目标折扣，该券商将香港房地产开发商的目标价平均下调了 9%。然而，美银证券预计温和的美国加息对房东的影响有限。</p>
</div><p>In terms of stock preferences, BofAS favors LINK REIT (00823.HK) -0.200 (-0.560%)  Short selling $219.76M; Ratio 25.920%  among landlords (expecting share buybacks to resume soon) and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) -0.800 (-3.781%)  Short selling $52.89M; Ratio 18.987%  and Hongkong Land (benefiting from rental growth in Central offices). Among developers, it prefers cash-rich CK ASSET (01113.HK) +0.020 (+0.045%)  Short selling $32.20M; Ratio 10.659%  and SINO LAND (00083.HK) -0.390 (-3.562%)  Short selling $182.89M; Ratio 49.393%  . The broker maintains an Underperform rating on NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) +0.010 (+0.142%)  Short selling $8.54M; Ratio 11.978%  (affected by high leverage) and MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK) -0.600 (-1.904%)  Short selling $349.31M; Ratio 67.668%  (impacted by high capital expenditure).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票偏好方面，美银证券偏好 LINK REIT（00823.HK）-0.200（-0.560%）短期卖空 219.76 百万；比例 25.920% 作为房东（预计股票回购将很快恢复），以及 SWIREPROPERTIES（01972.HK）-0.800（-3.781%）短期卖空 52.89 百万；比例 18.987% 和香港置地（受益于中环办公楼租金增长）。在开发商中，它更倾向于现金充裕的 CK ASSET（01113.HK）+0.020（+0.045%）短期卖空 32.20 百万；比例 10.659% 和 SINO LAND（00083.HK）-0.390（-3.562%）短期卖空 182.89 百万；比例 49.393%。该券商对 NEW WORLD DEV（00017.HK）+0.010（+0.142%）短期卖空 8.54 百万；比例 11.978%（受高杠杆影响）和 MTR CORPORATION（00066.HK）-0.600（-1.904%）短期卖空 349.31 百万；比例 67.668%（受高资本支出影响）维持了表现不佳的评级。</p>
</div><p>Details of the revised TPs and ratings for developers are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开发商的目标价和评级修订详情如下：</p>
</div><p>CK ASSET (01113.HK) +0.020 (+0.045%)  Short selling $32.20M; Ratio 10.659%  | Buy | HKD53.5 -&gt; HKD53</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CK ASSET（01113.HK）+0.020（+0.045%）短期卖空 32.20 百万；比例 10.659% | 买入 | HKD53.5 -&gt; HKD53</p>
</div><p>HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) -0.460 (-1.780%)  Short selling $96.68M; Ratio 29.244%  | Buy | HKD34.4 -&gt; HKD31.7</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>HENDERSON LAND（00012.HK）-0.460（-1.780%）短期卖空 96.68 百万；比例 29.244% | 买入 | HKD34.4 -&gt; HKD31.7</p>
</div><p>SHK PPT (00016.HK) +0.600 (+0.532%)  Short selling $497.39M; Ratio 21.469%  | Neutral | HKD136 -&gt; HKD122</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SHK PPT（00016.HK）+0.600（+0.532%）短期卖空 497.39 百万；比例 21.469% | 中性 | HKD136 -&gt; HKD122</p>
</div><p>SINO LAND (00083.HK) -0.390 (-3.562%)  Short selling $182.89M; Ratio 49.393%  | Buy | HKD13.5 -&gt; HKD12.2</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SINO LAND（00083.HK）-0.390（-3.562%）短期卖空 182.89 百万；比例 49.393% | 买入 | HKD13.5 -&gt; HKD12.2</p>
</div><p>NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) +0.010 (+0.142%)  Short selling $8.54M; Ratio 11.978%  | Underperform | HKD5.2 -&gt; HKD4.9</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NEW WORLD DEV（00017.HK）+0.010（+0.142%）短期卖空 8.54 百万；比例 11.978% | 表现不佳 | HKD5.2 -&gt; HKD4.9</p>
</div><p>WHARF HOLDINGS (00004.HK) -0.720 (-3.846%)  Short selling $14.86M; Ratio 18.350%  | Neutral | HKD26 -&gt; HKD21</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WHARF HOLDINGS（00004.HK）-0.720（-3.846%）短期卖空 14.86 百万；比例 18.350% | 中性 | HKD26 -&gt; HKD21</p>
</div><p>KERRY PPT (00683.HK) -0.290 (-1.568%)  Short selling $3.47M; Ratio 6.721%  | Buy | HKD26.2 -&gt; HKD23</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KERRY PPT（00683.HK）-0.290（-1.568%）短期卖空 3.47 百万；比例 6.721% | 买入 | HKD26.2 -&gt; HKD23</p>
</div><p>On sector outlook, BofAS noted that the Central office market could benefit from potential tax incentives. Channel checks indicate that Hong Kong is considering exempting fund managers from investment profit tax, which has already triggered expansion demand from hedge funds for office space. This is expected to support rental upside for core Central assets (such as IFC) and generate positive valuation premiums for quality portfolios such as Hongkong Land and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) -0.800 (-3.781%)  Short selling $52.89M; Ratio 18.987%  . The broker raised its 2026 Central office rental forecast from a YoY 5% increase to a 5%-10% increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于行业展望，美银证券指出，中环办公市场可能受益于潜在的税收激励。渠道调查显示，香港正在考虑免除基金经理的投资利润税，这已经引发了对办公空间的对冲基金扩张需求。这预计将支持核心中环资产（如国际金融中心）的租金上行，并为香港置地和 SWIREPROPERTIES（01972.HK）-0.800（-3.781%）短期卖空 52.89 百万；比例 18.987% 等优质投资组合产生正的估值溢价。该券商将 2026 年中环办公租金预测从同比增长 5% 上调至 5%-10% 的增长。</p>
</div><p>In the retail segment, a strong USD may weaken Hong Kong’s appeal to tourists from SE Asia, but the appreciation of RMB year-to-date helps support mainland demand. Meanwhile, mass-market retail performance continues to stabilize, as reflected in trends seen at LINK REIT and supermarket operators. (ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-18 16:25.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售领域，强势美元可能削弱香港对东南亚游客的吸引力，但年初至今人民币的升值有助于支持大陆需求。同时，大众市场零售表现持续稳定，反映在 LINK REIT 和超市运营商的趋势中。（广告/数据）（香港股票报价延迟至少 15 分钟。短期卖空数据截至 2026-06-18 16:25。）</p>
</div>

BofAS Expects Property Price Growth to Slow, Cuts TP on Hong Kong Developers by Avg 9%

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新鸿基地产-R

九龙仓集团(ADR)

美银证券预计房价增长将放缓，并将香港开发商的目标价平均下调 9%