<p><strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 如果美联储不加息，可能会迎来反弹，Bitwise 首席投资官 <strong>Matt Hougan</strong> 表示。</p>
<p>自 2 月底伊朗冲突开始以来，美国股市上涨了大约 9%，而比特币下跌了 1%，黄金则下跌了 20%。</p>
<p>在 6 月 22 日的 &#34;The Stack&#34; 帖子 中，Grayscale 研究主管 <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> 指出，随着投资者越来越多地考虑到因通胀担忧而可能收紧货币政策的可能性，市场出现了分歧。</p>
<p>Hougan 指出，一年期美联储利率预期上升了约 60 个基点，而大约一半的美联储官员认为在 2026 年加息是合适的。</p>
<p>欧洲中央银行已经开始加息。</p>
<p>由于比特币和黄金不产生收益，更高的利率增加了持有这些资产相对于现金和债券的机会成本，从而抑制了需求。</p>
<p>在过去一个月中，比特币价格下跌了约 19%，其三个月的跌幅扩大至约 13%。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币可能受益的原因</strong></h2>
<p>Hougan 认为市场可能高估了未来加息的可能性。</p>
<p>尽管美联储将当前基准 联邦基金利率保持不变，维持在 3.5% 到 3.75% 的区间内，但美国银行 预测利率将在 2026 年底前提高 75 个基点。</p>
<p>“我们的基本假设是美联储将暂停加息，” 他说。“如果我们是对的，比特币的价格可能会追赶股票。”</p>
<p>尽管与人工智能相关的支出推动了股市的上涨，但比特币和黄金的表现滞后，部分原因是人们担心中央银行需要进一步收紧政策以应对通胀。</p>
<p>如果这些担忧减轻，资金可能会重新流入比特币等替代资产。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币的双重角色</strong></h2>
<p>与黄金不同，Hougan 认为比特币在投资组合中发挥着两种功能。</p>
<p>他将比特币描述为一种稀缺的数字商品，既是长期价值储存工具，也是一个公共区块链网络，提供对更广泛加密经济增长的曝光。</p>
<p>这种组合赋予比特币既有黄金的特性，又有成长型股票的特性，可能使其成为一个有吸引力的投资组合多样化工具。</p>
<p>“比特币可以作为一个投资组合多样化工具，目前的价格看起来具有吸引力，” Hougan 说。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

GBTC

ARKB

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<p>Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 表示，如果美联储维持利率不变且通胀担忧减轻，比特币可能会反弹。他认为市场高估了紧缩政策，并指出比特币因潜在加息带来的更高机会成本而落后于股票。如果美联储维持当前利率水平，资金可能会重新流入比特币，Hougan 认为比特币是一个具有吸引力的投资组合多样化工具，结合了价值储存和增长特性</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) may be positioned for a catch-up rally if the Federal Reserve refrains from raising interest rates, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer <strong>Matt Hougan</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 如果美联储不加息，可能会迎来反弹，Bitwise 首席投资官 <strong>Matt Hougan</strong> 表示。</p>
</div><p>Since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, U.S. equities have gained roughly 9%, while Bitcoin has slipped 1% and gold has fallen 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2 月底伊朗冲突开始以来，美国股市上涨了大约 9%，而比特币下跌了 1%，黄金则下跌了 20%。</p>
</div><p>In a &#34;The Stack&#34; post on June 22, Grayscale Head of Research <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> noted that the divergence comes as investors increasingly price in the possibility of tighter monetary policy amid inflation concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月 22 日的 &#34;The Stack&#34; 帖子 中，Grayscale 研究主管 <strong>Zach Pandl</strong> 指出，随着投资者越来越多地考虑到因通胀担忧而可能收紧货币政策的可能性，市场出现了分歧。</p>
</div><p>One-year Fed rate expectations have risen about 60 basis points, while roughly half of Federal Reserve officials believe rate hikes could be appropriate in 2026, Hougan noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hougan 指出，一年期美联储利率预期上升了约 60 个基点，而大约一半的美联储官员认为在 2026 年加息是合适的。</p>
</div><p>The European Central Bank has already moved to raise rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲中央银行已经开始加息。</p>
</div><p>Because Bitcoin and gold do not generate yield, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding those assets relative to cash and bonds, weighing on demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于比特币和黄金不产生收益，更高的利率增加了持有这些资产相对于现金和债券的机会成本，从而抑制了需求。</p>
</div><p>Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price has fallen roughly 19%, extending its three-month decline to about 13%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个月中，比特币价格下跌了约 19%，其三个月的跌幅扩大至约 13%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why Bitcoin Could Benefit</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币可能受益的原因</strong></h2>
</div><p>Hougan argued that markets may be overestimating the likelihood of future rate hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hougan 认为市场可能高估了未来加息的可能性。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed left its current benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, Bank of America predicts rates to be raised by 75 basis points before the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管美联储将当前基准 联邦基金利率保持不变，维持在 3.5% 到 3.75% 的区间内，但美国银行 预测利率将在 2026 年底前提高 75 个基点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Our base case is for the Fed to hold off on rate hikes,” he said. “If we’re right, Bitcoin’s price may catch up with stocks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的基本假设是美联储将暂停加息，” 他说。“如果我们是对的，比特币的价格可能会追赶股票。”</p>
</div><p>While AI-related spending has fueled gains in equities, Bitcoin and gold have lagged partly due to fears that central banks will need to tighten policy further to combat inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管与人工智能相关的支出推动了股市的上涨，但比特币和黄金的表现滞后，部分原因是人们担心中央银行需要进一步收紧政策以应对通胀。</p>
</div><p>If those concerns ease, capital could rotate back into alternative assets such as Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这些担忧减轻，资金可能会重新流入比特币等替代资产。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin’s Dual Role</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币的双重角色</strong></h2>
</div><p>Unlike gold, Hougan views Bitcoin as serving two functions within portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与黄金不同，Hougan 认为比特币在投资组合中发挥着两种功能。</p>
</div><p>He described Bitcoin as both a scarce digital commodity that acts as a long-term store of value and a public blockchain network that provides exposure to growth in the broader crypto economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他将比特币描述为一种稀缺的数字商品，既是长期价值储存工具，也是一个公共区块链网络，提供对更广泛加密经济增长的曝光。</p>
</div><p>That combination gives Bitcoin characteristics of both gold and growth equities, potentially making it an attractive portfolio diversifier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种组合赋予比特币既有黄金的特性，又有成长型股票的特性，可能使其成为一个有吸引力的投资组合多样化工具。</p>
</div><p>“Bitcoin can act as a portfolio diversifier that, at current levels, appears attractively priced,” Hougan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“比特币可以作为一个投资组合多样化工具，目前的价格看起来具有吸引力，” Hougan 说。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Could Start A Catch-Up Rally—But The Fed Has To Play Ball, Bitwise's Matt Hougan Says

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比特币可能会启动一场追赶式反弹——但美联储需要配合，Bitwise 的 Matt Hougan 表示