<p><strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能更接近找到其底部，但 CryptoQuant 研究主管 <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> 警告称，链上需求尚未确认一个持久的底部。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币拒绝关键阻力位</strong></h2>
<p>Moreno 在 6 月 23 日的 Milk Road Show 上表示，比特币近期在 $80,000 附近的拒绝与熊市反弹一致，而不是新牛市阶段的开始。</p>
<p>比特币从低于 $60,000 到约 $80,000 的涨幅缺乏支撑牛市突破所需的基础现货需求。</p>
<p>Moreno 指出，200 日移动平均线是比特币未能重新夺回的关键阻力位。比特币随后重新测试了 2 月的低点，短暂交易接近 $59,000。</p>
<p>Moreno 强调，他偏爱的底部指标之一是比特币的实现价格，衡量的是币最后移动的平均价格，目前接近 $53,000。这使得该资产相对接近他所称的 “价值区”。</p>
<p>“对我来说，这大约是实现价格，” Moreno 说。“我们真的很接近。”</p>
<p>然而，他警告说，接近底部并不意味着市场不能先进一步下跌。</p>
<p>在撰写本文时，比特币价格跌破 $62,000，使其七天的损失约为 5%。</p>
<h2><strong>需求仍然疲软</strong></h2>
<p>更大的担忧是比特币需求仍在收缩。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的显性需求指标，结合了链上现货需求和永续期货活动，最近以自 2022 年 1 月以来最快的速度下降。这是因为早期向 $80,000 的反弹主要是由投机性期货需求驱动的。</p>
<p>Moreno 还强调，比特币 ETF 的需求在年基础上首次趋于平稳，自现货比特币 ETF 推出以来。</p>
<p>他提醒道，ETF 持有量在牛市阶段迅速增长，但随后急剧放缓，出现了一些净卖出期。</p>
<p>截至 6 月 23 日，现货比特币 ETF 录得 $25 亿的净流出，而现货以太坊 ETF 报告净流出 $3.464 亿，根据 SoSoValue 数据。</p>
<h2><strong>放弃信号尚不明确</strong></h2>
<p>Moreno 跟踪另一个指标，即实现损失，衡量的是以亏损价格转移的比特币数量。</p>
<p>历史上，主要的熊市底部通常与实现损失的大幅激增相吻合，表明卖方疲惫。但最新的修正尚未产生与之前周期底部相同水平的放弃。</p>
<p>“我们还没有看到那么大的损失实现，” Moreno 说。</p>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

GBTC

FBTC

IBIT

<p>CryptoQuant 的 Julio Moreno 表示，比特币可能接近其实现价格 53,000 美元的熊市底部，但警告称持久的需求尚未出现。链上活动依然疲软，ETF 资金流入停滞，最近出现了净流出，关键的投降信号如显著的实现损失也缺失。最近上涨至 80,000 美元缺乏现货需求，表明这可能是熊市反弹，而非牛市的开始</p>

<p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) may be closer to finding its floor, but CryptoQuant Head of Research <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> warns that on-chain demand has not yet confirmed a durable bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能更接近找到其底部，但 CryptoQuant 研究主管 <strong>Julio Moreno</strong> 警告称，链上需求尚未确认一个持久的底部。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin Rejects Key Resistance</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币拒绝关键阻力位</strong></h2>
</div><p>Speaking on June 23 at Milk Road Show, Moreno said Bitcoin’s recent rejection near $80,000 was consistent with a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 在 6 月 23 日的 Milk Road Show 上表示，比特币近期在 $80,000 附近的拒绝与熊市反弹一致，而不是新牛市阶段的开始。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s move from the low $60,000s to around $80,000 lacked the underlying spot demand needed to sustain a bull-market breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币从低于 $60,000 到约 $80,000 的涨幅缺乏支撑牛市突破所需的基础现货需求。</p>
</div><p>Moreno pointed to the 200-day moving average as a key resistance level that Bitcoin failed to reclaim. Bitcoin has since retested the February lows, briefly trading near $59,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 指出，200 日移动平均线是比特币未能重新夺回的关键阻力位。比特币随后重新测试了 2 月的低点，短暂交易接近 $59,000。</p>
</div><p>Moreno highlighted that one of his preferred bottom indicators BTC’s realized price, measuring the average price at which coins last moved, currently sits near $53,000. This puts the asset relatively close to what he calls the “value zone.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 强调，他偏爱的底部指标之一是比特币的实现价格，衡量的是币最后移动的平均价格，目前接近 $53,000。这使得该资产相对接近他所称的 “价值区”。</p>
</div><p>“For me, it’s around the realized price,” Moreno said. “We’re really close.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对我来说，这大约是实现价格，” Moreno 说。“我们真的很接近。”</p>
</div><p>However, he cautioned that being close to the floor does not mean the market cannot move lower first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，他警告说，接近底部并不意味着市场不能先进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, BTC prices slipped below $62,000 taking its seven-day loss to around 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在撰写本文时，比特币价格跌破 $62,000，使其七天的损失约为 5%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Demand Still Weak</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>需求仍然疲软</strong></h2>
</div><p>The bigger concern is that Bitcoin demand is still contracting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更大的担忧是比特币需求仍在收缩。</p>
</div><p>CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric, which combines on-chain spot demand with perpetual futures activity, recently fell at its fastest pace since January 2022. This is because the earlier rally toward $80,000 was driven mainly by speculative futures demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的显性需求指标，结合了链上现货需求和永续期货活动，最近以自 2022 年 1 月以来最快的速度下降。这是因为早期向 $80,000 的反弹主要是由投机性期货需求驱动的。</p>
</div><p>Moreno also highlighted that Bitcoin ETF demand has flattened on an annual basis for the first time since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 还强调，比特币 ETF 的需求在年基础上首次趋于平稳，自现货比特币 ETF 推出以来。</p>
</div><p>He reminded how ETF holdings grew rapidly during the bull phase but have since slowed sharply, with some periods of net selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他提醒道，ETF 持有量在牛市阶段迅速增长，但随后急剧放缓，出现了一些净卖出期。</p>
</div><p>Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.5 billion in net outflows as of June 23 while Spot Ethereum ETFs reported a $346.4 million net outflow, according to SoSoValue data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 6 月 23 日，现货比特币 ETF 录得 $25 亿的净流出，而现货以太坊 ETF 报告净流出 $3.464 亿，根据 SoSoValue 数据。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Capitulation Signal Not Yet Clear</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>放弃信号尚不明确</strong></h2>
</div><p>Moreno tracks another metric which is realized losse measuring how much Bitcoin is moved at a loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Moreno 跟踪另一个指标，即实现损失，衡量的是以亏损价格转移的比特币数量。</p>
</div><p>Historically, major bear-market bottoms have coincided with large spikes in realized losses, signaling seller exhaustion. But the latest correction has not yet produced the same level of capitulation seen in prior cycle bottoms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，主要的熊市底部通常与实现损失的大幅激增相吻合，表明卖方疲惫。但最新的修正尚未产生与之前周期底部相同水平的放弃。</p>
</div><p>“We haven’t seen that big of a loss realization,” Moreno said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们还没有看到那么大的损失实现，” Moreno 说。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Plunges To $62,000: What Is Going On?

benzinga_article

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

ETC Holdings Ltd. (Guernsey)

博时比特币

华夏比特币

MBC比特币

比特币跌至 62,000 美元：究竟发生了什么？