<p>这两家公司显然有很多共同点，超出了埃隆·马斯克作为首席执行官的身份。现实是，它们今天的股票价值和购买并不是基于当前的收益，而是基于它们未来可能成为的样子。</p>
<p>然而，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.13%）和 <strong>太空探索技术公司</strong>（SPCX +0.69%），更广为人知的是 SpaceX，在投资特征上存在关键差异，这使得它们适合不同类型的投资者，并且挑战了将特斯拉并入 SpaceX 的想法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉与 SpaceX 之间的三大关键差异</h2>
<p>需要考虑的主要因素如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>特斯拉的项目（电动车、机器人出租车和 Optimus 机器人）体现了人工智能（AI）。与此同时，SpaceX 在很大程度上依赖于对 AI 的最终需求，尤其是其 xAI 业务和轨道数据中心的雄心。</li>
<li>尽管马斯克曾表达过延迟和过于乐观的假设，特斯拉的长期经常性收入驱动因素，即机器人出租车和 Optimus，实际上比 SpaceX 更接近于近期实现。</li>
<li>这两家公司在中期资本支出需求和现金流特征上有着巨大的不同，SpaceX 需要的投资显著更多。</li>
</ul>
<p>综合这些观点，很明显，尽管两者都是成长型股票并以此定价，但特斯拉的风险低于 SpaceX，并且在开始扩大收益和现金流之前的时间跨度更短。这并不是说特斯拉一定是更好的股票，而是指出它们适合不同类型的投资者。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$381.10</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.4 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>343.9K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>57.5M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>资本支出需求和现金流</h2>
<p>下图显示了华尔街对资本支出的共识。这意味着到 2026 年，SpaceX 的资本支出将超过其收入，并且到 2030 年仍将占收入的 40%。</p>
<p>与此同时，特斯拉的相对资本支出预计将随着收入的增长而下降，其在 确保供应链的重大投资阶段 将逐渐减弱。特斯拉目前正在大力投资建设锂精炼厂和锂电池生产厂，并开始生产 Cybercab、Semi 和 Optimus。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence。华尔街共识。图表由作者制作。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的催化剂是近期的</h2>
<p>考虑到特斯拉的关键举措（机器人出租车/Cybercab 和 Optimus）的时机，投资者可能会感到不安；现实是，它们比轨道数据中心更接近实现。</p>
<p>例如，特斯拉在推进机器人出租车的推出时采取了非常谨慎的态度。在上一次财报电话会议上，马斯克明确表示：“在我们知道有软件改进在路上可以提高安全性时，去进行大规模的无监督 FSD 是不对的。” 这些改进可能会在其全自动驾驶（FSD）软件的 v15 版本中于 2026 年底或 2027 年初推出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>那时，投资者可以开始期待一个显著的 “非常大规模” 的推出。然而，这仍然比 SpaceX 的轨道数据中心要近得多。SpaceX 预计将在 2028 年部署它们，但在首次公开募股（IPO）注册文件中明确指出，“涉及未经验证或新创新的某些举措的时间表，包括我们目标在轨道上部署 100 千兆瓦的年度计算能力……可能很难或不可能确定。”</p>
<h2>一种不同类型的 AI 公司</h2>
<p>如前所述，特斯拉的解决方案体现了 AI，使其成为参与 AI 能力增长的最激动人心的方式之一。虽然 SpaceX 也受益于这些趋势，但它在很大程度上依赖于 AI 应用的增长。如果需求放缓，可能会 “导致现有的地面数据中心足以满足这种需求，从而减少我们轨道 AI 计算基础设施的需求，” 根据 SpaceX 的文件。</p>
<h2>哪只股票更好？</h2>
<p>最终，决定取决于你的风险偏好、对 AI 应用增长的信心程度，以及愿意等待每家公司增长催化剂实现的程度。</p>
<p>这些投资特征的差异也使得潜在的合并变得有些问题，因为特斯拉的投资者将会用机器人出租车和 Optimus 带来的经常性现金流的增长可能性，来交换这些现金流被再投资以支持 SpaceX 现有业务的长期增长的前景。除非收购价格是显著的溢价，否则这可能不适合大多数特斯拉投资者。</p>

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉

SPCX

<p>这篇文章比较了特斯拉和 SpaceX，认为尽管两者有共同的领导层，但它们适合不同的投资者类型。主要区别在于，特斯拉的短期人工智能催化剂如机器人出租车，而 SpaceX 则依赖长期的轨道数据中心。特斯拉被认为风险较低，现金流潜力更早，而 SpaceX 则需要更高的资本支出。文章最后得出结论，由于这些不同的风险和时间特征，合并是有问题的</p>

<p>The two companies obviously have a lot in common, and it goes beyond having Elon Musk as their CEO. The reality is that they are both stocks valued and bought today, not for their current earnings, but for what they could become in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两家公司显然有很多共同点，超出了埃隆·马斯克作为首席执行官的身份。现实是，它们今天的股票价值和购买并不是基于当前的收益，而是基于它们未来可能成为的样子。</p>
</div><p>However, there are key differences between the investment profiles of <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 0.13%) and <strong>Space Exploration Technologies</strong>( SPCX +0.69%), better known as SpaceX, that make them suitable for different types of investors and also challenge the notion that folding Tesla into SpaceX is a good idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 0.13%）和 <strong>太空探索技术公司</strong>（SPCX +0.69%），更广为人知的是 SpaceX，在投资特征上存在关键差异，这使得它们适合不同类型的投资者，并且挑战了将特斯拉并入 SpaceX 的想法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvcmVsYXhlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci13YXRjaGluZy1zdG9ja3MtYW5hbHlzdC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="An investor at a desk." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2Frelaxed-investor-watching-stocks-analyst-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Three key differences between Tesla and SpaceX</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉与 SpaceX 之间的三大关键差异</h2>
</div><p>The major factors to consider are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要考虑的主要因素如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Tesla's projects (electric vehicles, robotaxis, and Optimus robots) embody artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, SpaceX is largely dependent on end demand for AI, not least for its xAI business and its orbital data center ambitions.</li>
<li>The scaling of Tesla's long-term recurring income drivers, namely robotaxis and Optimus are, despite the delays and previously over-optimistic assumptions articulated by Musk, much closer to near-term fruition than SpaceX's.</li>
<li>The two companies have vastly different medium-term capital expenditure requirements and cash flow profiles, with SpaceX requiring significantly more investment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>特斯拉的项目（电动车、机器人出租车和 Optimus 机器人）体现了人工智能（AI）。与此同时，SpaceX 在很大程度上依赖于对 AI 的最终需求，尤其是其 xAI 业务和轨道数据中心的雄心。</li>
<li>尽管马斯克曾表达过延迟和过于乐观的假设，特斯拉的长期经常性收入驱动因素，即机器人出租车和 Optimus，实际上比 SpaceX 更接近于近期实现。</li>
<li>这两家公司在中期资本支出需求和现金流特征上有着巨大的不同，SpaceX 需要的投资显著更多。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Putting these points together, it's clear that, while both are growth stocks and priced as such, Tesla is less risky than SpaceX and has a shorter time horizon before it starts scaling earnings and cash flow. That's not to argue that Tesla is necessarily the better stock, but rather to point out that they will suit different types of investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合这些观点，很明显，尽管两者都是成长型股票并以此定价，但特斯拉的风险低于 SpaceX，并且在开始扩大收益和现金流之前的时间跨度更短。这并不是说特斯拉一定是更好的股票，而是指出它们适合不同类型的投资者。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.13%) $-0.51</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$381.10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$381.10</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$378.73 - $384.56</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>343.9K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>343.9K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>57.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>57.5M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Capital expenditure requirements and cash flow</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>资本支出需求和现金流</h2>
</div><p>The chart below shows the Wall Street consensus on capital spending. It implies that SpaceX will put more into capital expenditures than it generates in revenue in 2026 and will still be at a whopping 40% of revenue in 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图显示了华尔街对资本支出的共识。这意味着到 2026 年，SpaceX 的资本支出将超过其收入，并且到 2030 年仍将占收入的 40%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Tesla's relative capital spending is expected to decline as revenue grows and its phase of significant investment in securing its supply chain moderates. Tesla is investing heavily right now to build a lithium refinery and a lithium battery production plant, and is beginning to produce the Cybercab, Semi, and Optimus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，特斯拉的相对资本支出预计将随着收入的增长而下降，其在 确保供应链的重大投资阶段 将逐渐减弱。特斯拉目前正在大力投资建设锂精炼厂和锂电池生产厂，并开始生产 Cybercab、Semi 和 Optimus。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvc3BhY2V4LWFuZC10ZXNsYS1jYXBpdGFsLWV4cGVuZGl0dXJlcy1zaGFyZS1vZi1yZXZlbnVlLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="SpaceX and Tesla capital expenditures as a share of revenue." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2Fspacex-and-tesla-capital-expenditures-share-of-revenue.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Data source: S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence. Wall Street consensus. Chart by the author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence。华尔街共识。图表由作者制作。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's catalysts are near-term</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的催化剂是近期的</h2>
</div><p>Investors can be forgiven for growing restless given the timing of Tesla's key initiatives (robotaxis/Cybercab and Optimus); the reality is that they are much closer to fruition than orbital data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到特斯拉的关键举措（机器人出租车/Cybercab 和 Optimus）的时机，投资者可能会感到不安；现实是，它们比轨道数据中心更接近实现。</p>
</div><p>For example, Tesla is taking a very cautious approach to ramping the robotaxi rollout. On the last earnings call, Musk made it clear that &#34;it wouldn't be right for us to go to like very large scale unsupervised FSD when we know that there are software improvements in the pipeline that would improve safety.&#34; Those improvements are likely to come with v15 of its full self-driving (FSD) software due in late 2026 or early 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，特斯拉在推进机器人出租车的推出时采取了非常谨慎的态度。在上一次财报电话会议上，马斯克明确表示：“在我们知道有软件改进在路上可以提高安全性时，去进行大规模的无监督 FSD 是不对的。” 这些改进可能会在其全自动驾驶（FSD）软件的 v15 版本中于 2026 年底或 2027 年初推出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzM1MjMvNC10ZXNsYXMtaW4tYS1wYXJraW5nLWxvdC1hdC1hLWNoYXJnZXItc3RhdGlvbi0xLnBuZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Four Tesla EVs in a row. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F873523%2F4-teslas-in-a-parking-lot-at-a-charger-station-1.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>That's when investors can start to expect a significant and &#34;very large scale&#34; rollout. Still, it's a lot closer than SpaceX's orbital data centers. SpaceX expects to deploy them in 2028, but as clearly stated in the initial public offering (IPO) registration filing, &#34;the timeline for certain of our initiatives involving unproven or new innovations, including our goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of annual compute power to orbit ... may be difficult or impossible to determine.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那时，投资者可以开始期待一个显著的 “非常大规模” 的推出。然而，这仍然比 SpaceX 的轨道数据中心要近得多。SpaceX 预计将在 2028 年部署它们，但在首次公开募股（IPO）注册文件中明确指出，“涉及未经验证或新创新的某些举措的时间表，包括我们目标在轨道上部署 100 千兆瓦的年度计算能力……可能很难或不可能确定。”</p>
</div><h2>A different kind of AI company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一种不同类型的 AI 公司</h2>
</div><p>As previously discussed in more detail, Tesla's solutions embody AI, making it one of the most exciting ways to play on the growth of AI capability. While SpaceX also benefits from these trends, it's much more dependent on the growth in AI applications. If demand slows, it could &#34;result in existing terrestrial data centers sufficiently meeting such demand, thereby reducing the need for our orbital AI compute infrastructure,&#34; according to SpaceX filings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，特斯拉的解决方案体现了 AI，使其成为参与 AI 能力增长的最激动人心的方式之一。虽然 SpaceX 也受益于这些趋势，但它在很大程度上依赖于 AI 应用的增长。如果需求放缓，可能会 “导致现有的地面数据中心足以满足这种需求，从而减少我们轨道 AI 计算基础设施的需求，” 根据 SpaceX 的文件。</p>
</div><h2>Which stock is better?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪只股票更好？</h2>
</div><p>Ultimately, the decision boils down to your risk profile, level of confidence in the growth of AI applications, and willingness to wait for each company's growth catalysts to come to fruition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，决定取决于你的风险偏好、对 AI 应用增长的信心程度，以及愿意等待每家公司增长催化剂实现的程度。</p>
</div><p>Those differences in investment profiles also make a potential merger somewhat problematic, as Tesla investors will be swapping the likelihood of a ramp in recurring cash flows from robotaxis and Optimus for the prospect of those cash flows being reinvested to support long-term growth in SpaceX's existing businesses. That might not suit most Tesla investors unless the acquisition price is a significant premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些投资特征的差异也使得潜在的合并变得有些问题，因为特斯拉的投资者将会用机器人出租车和 Optimus 带来的经常性现金流的增长可能性，来交换这些现金流被再投资以支持 SpaceX 现有业务的长期增长的前景。除非收购价格是显著的溢价，否则这可能不适合大多数特斯拉投资者。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Tesla and Buy SpaceX Instead?

- 特斯拉与 SpaceX 在投资特征上存在关键差异。
- 特斯拉的盈利驱动力较近，风险更低；而 SpaceX 则需更大投资。
- 两者适合不同类型的投资者，合并存在挑战。

你是否应该放弃特斯拉而选择投资 SpaceX？