<p><strong>霍尼韦尔国际</strong>（HON +2.27%）将在 6 月 29 日剥离霍尼韦尔航空航天业务，这是其拆分企业集团结构以加速增长的最后阶段。5 月时，我曾预测（I predicted）霍尼韦尔的剥离将引发 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>（^DJI +0.35%）的震荡，为 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 0.36%）（GOOGL 0.33%）加入该指数打开完美窗口。</p>
<p>这一预测在 6 月 23 日成真，当时标准普尔道琼斯指数宣布，虽然精简后的霍尼韦尔科技将继续留在道琼斯中，但 Alphabet 将在 6 月 29 日交易开始前取代 <strong>威瑞森通信</strong>（VZ 2.23%）。</p>
<p>这条消息对道琼斯和 Alphabet 投资者意味着什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU5NzEvYS1nb29nbGUtbG9nby1oYW5naW5nLWZyb20tYS1jaGFpbi1pbi1hLWRpbm9zYXVyLXNrZWxldG9ucy1tb3V0aC1vdXRzaWRlLW9mLWEtZ29vZ2xlLWNhbXB1cy5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU5NzEvYS1nb29nbGUtbG9nby1oYW5naW5nLWZyb20tYS1jaGFpbi1pbi1hLWRpbm9zYXVyLXNrZWxldG9ucy1tb3V0aC1vdXRzaWRlLW9mLWEtZ29vZ2xlLWNhbXB1cy5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Alphabet。</p>
<h2>Alphabet 多年来一直在敲击道琼斯的大门</h2>
<p>道琼斯在今年早些时候 满 130 岁。在其历史上，该指数是按价格加权的，意味着公司股票的单股成本。这与 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>（^IXIC 0.43%）和 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）不同，后者是按公司的市值加权。</p>
<p>有很多标准普尔 500 公司的投资表现糟糕，甚至长达数年，仍然留在指数中，仅仅是因为它们的市值仍高于指数的门槛。但道琼斯只有 30 个成分股，基本代表了股市的领导地位，因此选择性更强。如果一个曾经的行业领导者表现不佳太久，就很有可能被踢出指数。</p>
<p>这正是威瑞森所经历的。引用标准普尔道琼斯指数在 6 月 23 日的新闻稿：“由于其较低的股价，威瑞森仅占道琼斯工业平均指数的 0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数是一个按价格加权的指数，因此持续低价股票对该指数的影响微乎其微。” 总之，威瑞森变得如此微小——截至 6 月 24 日，其股票交易价格约为 45 美元——以至于其股价的波动对道琼斯几乎没有影响，这并不是该指数的目的。</p>
<p>Alphabet 曾经面临相反的问题——截至 2022 年 7 月，其股价已飙升至 2200 美元以上。但在那个夏天进行的 20 比 1 股票拆分为该公司成为道琼斯潜在成分股铺平了道路。自拆分以来，Alphabet 的股价大幅上涨，但仍在可接受的范围内。截至目前，Alphabet 的股价为 346.13 美元，这使其成为道琼斯的第六大成分股，仅次于 <strong>安进</strong>，高于 <strong>美国运通</strong>，在指数中的权重为 4.1%。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Alphabet 股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
<p>Alphabet</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-0.33%) $-1.16</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$344.98</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.2 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$341.92 - $353.44</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$169.94 - $408.61</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>210 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>3040 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>60.43%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.25%</p>
<h2>Alphabet 符合现在购买股票的所有条件</h2>
<p>尽管 Alphabet 是一家以技术为中心的公司，但它在技术上属于通信行业，这就是为什么取代同为通信股票的威瑞森显得合情合理。然而，近年来道琼斯变得更加注重科技。<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>国际商业机器公司</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong> 占道琼斯的 15.3%。再加上 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（消费品可选行业）和 Alphabet（假设权重为 4.1%），这就占到了道琼斯的 22.2%。</p>
<p>Alphabet 早该被纳入道琼斯。它是全球第三大最有价值的公司，仅次于英伟达和苹果。它在互联网服务领域占据主导地位，谷歌搜索是其核心。仅 YouTube 在 Alphabet 2026 年第一季度的收入就达到了 99 亿美元。作为对比，<strong>奈飞</strong> 的收入为 123 亿美元——这意味着 YouTube 在未来几年可能会超过奈飞的收入。</p>
<p>谷歌云是全球第三大云基础设施提供商，仅次于亚马逊网络服务和微软 Azure。但 Alphabet 还拥有领先的大型语言模型 Gemini。此外，Alphabet 在人工智能芯片生产方面 领先于亚马逊和微软，今年早些时候推出了第八代张量处理单元芯片（一个用于 AI 训练，一个用于 AI 推理）。Alphabet 还拥有 Android，制造谷歌 Pixel 和其他设备，是量子计算的领导者，并通过 Waymo 参与自动驾驶汽车的研发。</p>
<p>总之，Alphabet 在多样化和高利润增长之间取得了独特的平衡，这在其规模的公司中是极为罕见的组合。Alphabet 在 2024 年实施了首次股息。除了亚马逊和 <strong>波音</strong>，道琼斯的所有股票都支付股息。更重要的是，Alphabet 的市盈率为未来 12 个月的 24.3 倍，相较于标准普尔 500 的 20.8 倍前瞻市盈率，考虑到 Alphabet 的质量远高于典型的标准普尔 500 成分股，这一溢价是合理的。</p>

谷歌-C

威瑞森

道琼斯指数

<p>在 6 月 29 日，Alphabet 取代了 Verizon 成为道琼斯工业平均指数的一部分，此次变动是在霍尼韦尔分拆之后进行的。作为一个价格加权指数，道琼斯因 Verizon 的股价较低和影响微小而将其剔除。受股票拆分的推动，Alphabet 以 4.1% 的权重成为第六大成分股。这一举措反映了该指数日益增强的科技焦点以及 Alphabet 在搜索、云计算和人工智能领域的市场领导地位</p>

<p><strong>Honeywell International</strong>( HON +2.27%) is spinning off Honeywell Aerospace on June 29 as the final phase of breaking up its conglomerate structure to accelerate growth. In May, I predicted that Honeywell's spin-off would trigger a shake-up of the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>( ^DJI +0.35%) that would open the perfect window for <strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 0.36%)( GOOGL 0.33%) to join the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>霍尼韦尔国际</strong>（HON +2.27%）将在 6 月 29 日剥离霍尼韦尔航空航天业务，这是其拆分企业集团结构以加速增长的最后阶段。5 月时，我曾预测（I predicted）霍尼韦尔的剥离将引发 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>（^DJI +0.35%）的震荡，为 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 0.36%）（GOOGL 0.33%）加入该指数打开完美窗口。</p>
</div><p>The prediction came true on June 23, when S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced that while the streamlined Honeywell Technologies would remain in the Dow, Alphabet would replace <strong>Verizon Communications</strong>( VZ 2.23%) before the start of trading on June 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一预测在 6 月 23 日成真，当时标准普尔道琼斯指数宣布，虽然精简后的霍尼韦尔科技将继续留在道琼斯中，但 Alphabet 将在 6 月 29 日交易开始前取代 <strong>威瑞森通信</strong>（VZ 2.23%）。</p>
</div><p>Here's what the news means for the Dow and for Alphabet investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这条消息对道琼斯和 Alphabet 投资者意味着什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU5NzEvYS1nb29nbGUtbG9nby1oYW5naW5nLWZyb20tYS1jaGFpbi1pbi1hLWRpbm9zYXVyLXNrZWxldG9ucy1tb3V0aC1vdXRzaWRlLW9mLWEtZ29vZ2xlLWNhbXB1cy5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875971%2Fa-google-logo-hanging-from-a-chain-in-a-dinosaur-skeletons-mouth-outside-of-a-google-campus.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Alphabet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Alphabet。</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet has been knocking on the Dow's door for years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 多年来一直在敲击道琼斯的大门</h2>
</div><p>The Dow turned 130 years old earlier this year. Throughout its history, the index has been weighted by price, meaning the cost of a single share of a company's stock. This is in contrast with the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>( ^IXIC 0.43%) and the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>( ^GSPC 0.10%), which are weighted by a company's market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道琼斯在今年早些时候 满 130 岁。在其历史上，该指数是按价格加权的，意味着公司股票的单股成本。这与 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>（^IXIC 0.43%）和 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong>（^GSPC 0.10%）不同，后者是按公司的市值加权。</p>
</div><p>There are plenty of S&amp;P 500 companies that have been terrible investments for years, or even decades, that have remained in the index simply because they have stayed above the index's market-cap threshold. But the Dow, with just 30 components roughly representing stock market leadership, is much more selective. And if a former industry leader underperforms for too long, it stands a good chance of getting booted from the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有很多标准普尔 500 公司的投资表现糟糕，甚至长达数年，仍然留在指数中，仅仅是因为它们的市值仍高于指数的门槛。但道琼斯只有 30 个成分股，基本代表了股市的领导地位，因此选择性更强。如果一个曾经的行业领导者表现不佳太久，就很有可能被踢出指数。</p>
</div><p>This is exactly what happened to Verizon. To quote the June 23 press release by S&amp;P Dow Jones indexes: &#34;Verizon represents only one-half of one percentage point of the DJIA due to its lower share price. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price weighted index, and thus persistently lower-priced stocks have an immaterial impact on the index.&#34; In sum, Verizon had become so small -- its stock was trading around $45 as of June 24 -- that moves in its stock price had a negligible impact on the Dow, which isn't the index's purpose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这正是威瑞森所经历的。引用标准普尔道琼斯指数在 6 月 23 日的新闻稿：“由于其较低的股价，威瑞森仅占道琼斯工业平均指数的 0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数是一个按价格加权的指数，因此持续低价股票对该指数的影响微乎其微。” 总之，威瑞森变得如此微小——截至 6 月 24 日，其股票交易价格约为 45 美元——以至于其股价的波动对道琼斯几乎没有影响，这并不是该指数的目的。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet used to have the opposite problem -- as of July 2022, its share price had soared over $2,200. But a 20-for-1 stock split that summer set the stage for the company to become a top prospect in the Dow pipeline. Alphabet is up big since its split, but it is still within the bounds of an acceptable addition. At the time of this writing, Alphabet's share price of $346.13 would make it the Dow's sixth-largest component, just behind <strong>Amgen</strong> and ahead of <strong>American Express,</strong> with a 4.1% weighting in the index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 曾经面临相反的问题——截至 2022 年 7 月，其股价已飙升至 2200 美元以上。但在那个夏天进行的 20 比 1 股票拆分为该公司成为道琼斯潜在成分股铺平了道路。自拆分以来，Alphabet 的股价大幅上涨，但仍在可接受的范围内。截至目前，Alphabet 的股价为 346.13 美元，这使其成为道琼斯的第六大成分股，仅次于 <strong>安进</strong>，高于 <strong>美国运通</strong>，在指数中的权重为 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Alphabet Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FGOOGL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-0.33%) $-1.16</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.33%) $-1.16</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$344.98</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$344.98</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.2T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.2 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$341.92 - $353.44</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$341.92 - $353.44</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$169.94 - $408.61</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$169.94 - $408.61</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>210 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>30.4M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3040 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>60.43%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>60.43%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.25%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.25%</p>
</div><h2>Alphabet checks all the boxes for a stock to buy now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Alphabet 符合现在购买股票的所有条件</h2>
</div><p>Although Alphabet is a tech-focused company, it is technically in the communications sector, which is why replacing fellow communications stock Verizon made perfect sense. However, the Dow has become significantly more tech-focused in recent years. <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple,</strong> <strong>International Business Machines</strong>, <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Salesforce</strong>, and <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> account for 15.3% of the Dow. Throw in <strong>Amazon</strong> (consumer discretionary sector) and Alphabet (assuming a 4.1% weighing), and that's 22.2% of the Dow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Alphabet 是一家以技术为中心的公司，但它在技术上属于通信行业，这就是为什么取代同为通信股票的威瑞森显得合情合理。然而，近年来道琼斯变得更加注重科技。<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>国际商业机器公司</strong>、<strong>英伟达</strong>、<strong>Salesforce</strong> 和 <strong>思科系统</strong> 占道琼斯的 15.3%。再加上 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（消费品可选行业）和 Alphabet（假设权重为 4.1%），这就占到了道琼斯的 22.2%。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet was long overdue for inclusion in the Dow. It is the third-most-valuable company in the world, behind Nvidia and Apple. It dominates internet services with Google Search. YouTube alone generated $9.9 billion in revenue in Alphabet's first quarter of 2026. For context, <strong>Netflix</strong> did $12.3 billion -- meaning YouTube could surpass Netflix in revenue in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 早该被纳入道琼斯。它是全球第三大最有价值的公司，仅次于英伟达和苹果。它在互联网服务领域占据主导地位，谷歌搜索是其核心。仅 YouTube 在 Alphabet 2026 年第一季度的收入就达到了 99 亿美元。作为对比，<strong>奈飞</strong> 的收入为 123 亿美元——这意味着 YouTube 在未来几年可能会超过奈飞的收入。</p>
</div><p>Google Cloud is the third-largest global cloud infrastructure provider, behind Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. But Alphabet also has a leading large language model with Gemini. And Alphabet is ahead of Amazon and Microsoft in artificial intelligence chip production, rolling out its eight-generation Tensor Processing Unit chips (one for AI training and one for AI inference) earlier this year. Alphabet also owns Android, makes the Google Pixel and other devices, is a leader in quantum computing, and is involved in self-driving cars through Waymo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谷歌云是全球第三大云基础设施提供商，仅次于亚马逊网络服务和微软 Azure。但 Alphabet 还拥有领先的大型语言模型 Gemini。此外，Alphabet 在人工智能芯片生产方面 领先于亚马逊和微软，今年早些时候推出了第八代张量处理单元芯片（一个用于 AI 训练，一个用于 AI 推理）。Alphabet 还拥有 Android，制造谷歌 Pixel 和其他设备，是量子计算的领导者，并通过 Waymo 参与自动驾驶汽车的研发。</p>
</div><p>In sum, Alphabet has a unique balance of diversification and high-margin growth, an exceptionally rare combination for a company of its size. Alphabet implemented its first-ever dividend in 2024. Every Dow stock except for Amazon and <strong>Boeing</strong> pays dividends. And to top it all off, Alphabet trades at 24.3 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, which is a reasonable premium to the S&amp;P 500's 20.8 forward price-to-earnings ratio considering Alphabet is a much higher-quality company than the typical S&amp;P 500 component.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，Alphabet 在多样化和高利润增长之间取得了独特的平衡，这在其规模的公司中是极为罕见的组合。Alphabet 在 2024 年实施了首次股息。除了亚马逊和 <strong>波音</strong>，道琼斯的所有股票都支付股息。更重要的是，Alphabet 的市盈率为未来 12 个月的 24.3 倍，相较于标准普尔 500 的 20.8 倍前瞻市盈率，考虑到 Alphabet 的质量远高于典型的标准普尔 500 成分股，这一溢价是合理的。</p>
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I Correctly Predicted Alphabet Would Join the Dow Jones Industrial Average in June. Here's What the Index Shake-Up Means for Investors.

- 霍尼韦尔将于 6 月 29 日拆分航空航天部门，以加速增长。  
- 标普道琼斯指数宣布，Alphabet 将取代 Verizon 成为道指成分股。  
- Alphabet 是全球第三大公司，具备多元化与高盈利增长的独特平衡。

Motley Fool

谷歌-A

1 倍做空谷歌 ETF - Direxion

Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay ETF

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - Direxion

道琼斯指数 ETF - SPDR

YieldMax GOOGL Option Income Strategy ETF

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

做空道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空道指 30 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空道琼斯 30 指数 ETF - ProShares

GraniteShares 2x Long GOOGL Daily ETF

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - T-Rex

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Google GOOGL ETF

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

霍尼韦尔

纳斯达克综合指数

标普 500 指数

微软

苹果

英伟达

赛富时

思科

亚马逊

安进

美国运通

奈飞

波音

Honeywell International - WI

NVIDIA Corporation

Boeing Company

我在六月正确预测了 Alphabet 将加入道琼斯工业平均指数。这次指数调整对投资者意味着什么