<p>在棒球比赛中，如果一名球员在上场时击球成功的概率为 30%，他或她就被认为是一个杰出的天才。基于此，让我们为美国的顶级贷款机构热烈而持久地鼓掌。</p>
<p>他们值得欢呼，因为今年接受年度美联储（Fed）压力测试的 32 家银行和其他金融机构都以优异的成绩通过了测试。继续阅读，了解哪些公司在美联储的严格审视下表现最佳，为什么这些结果对我们的经济如此利好，以及这将如何影响这些公司的股东。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2709" height="1106" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>超级压力测试</h2>
<p>标题中的 “压力” 有些轻描淡写。美联储的检查目的是确定国家最重要的银行（以及我们将看到的与银行相关的企业）在面对不利经济情景时的应对能力。</p>
<p>这些假设情景中充满了噩梦般的情节。今年，美联储的 “严重不利” 情景包括商业房地产价值崩溃 39%，而房价也不甘示弱，暴跌 30%。我们有时会担心失业率以基点为单位的上升，那突然、剧烈地飙升至 10% 又如何？</p>
<p>华尔街也未能幸免。美联储想要模拟——可怕的是！——股价下跌 58%。如果这还不够糟糕，他们还让银行经历企业债券利差的严重扩大，以及恐慌指数飙升至 72%。在显微镜下的公司还必须 “忍受” 全球通缩情景，其中美元迅速而剧烈地升值。</p>
<h2>那么，他们表现如何？</h2>
<p>这种承受经济和金融冲击的能力正是我们应该如此热烈鼓掌的原因。这 32 家公司不仅 “生存” 了这些情景，而且表现出色。用技术术语来说，对于那些感兴趣的人，每一家在最严峻的虚构情况下都保持在其最低普通股一级资本要求之上。</p>
<p>换句话说，根据美联储对测试的事后新闻稿，“大型银行在应对严重衰退方面处于良好状态，并能够继续向家庭和企业提供贷款。” 总的来说，他们有足够的资本来吸收近 7080 亿美元的损失——无论从哪个标准来看，这都是一个巨大的数字。</p>
<p>在最不利的灾难组合下，所有贷款机构都保持了足够的资本以有效运营。其中的赢家是经纪公司 <strong>嘉信理财</strong>（Charles Schwab）（SCHW +0.64%），其 “压力比率”——股本资本与风险加权资产之比——超过 32%。考虑到被认为高且安全的范围是 9% 到 12%，这尤其令人印象深刻。</p>
<p>三家在美国有重要存在的国际贷款机构紧随其后。这些是 <strong>瑞银集团</strong>（UBS）（UBS +1.88%）美洲（15.3%）、<strong>德意志银行</strong>（Deutsche Bank）（DB +1.82%）美国（14.4%）和 <strong>多伦多道明银行</strong>（Toronto-Dominion Bank）（TD +1.37%）的 TD 集团。至于我们国家的四大银行，<strong>摩根大通</strong>（JPMorgan Chase）（JPM +2.91%）的得分为 12.6%，<strong>花旗集团</strong>（Citigroup）（C +2.70%）为 10.3%，<strong>美国银行</strong>（Bank of America）（BAC +2.12%）得分为 9.9%，而 <strong>富国银行</strong>（Wells Fargo）（WFC +2.25%）以 9.2% 垫底。</p>
<h2>期待一些股息增加</h2>
<p>对于喜欢深入了解银行的人来说，还有许多其他指标（补充杠杆比率，任何人都可以吗？）。毕竟，测试结果是相当全面的报告。</p>
<p>对我来说，结论是：尽管宏观经济出现波动，消费者和企业对价格上涨和潜在利率上升感到担忧，但经济仍在稳步前进，而这些非常健康的机构是其中的关键原因。他们在提供资本、提供信贷、建立存款基础等方面做得很好。换句话说，做着所有优秀贷款机构应该做的事情。</p>
<p>对于投资者来说，这可能意味着在接下来的几天里，银行股价至少会有所上涨。更重要的是（在我看来），美联储目前已冻结 “压力资本缓冲” 要求，这决定了银行资本配置措施的范围。由于许多银行在过去一年中显著增加了资本基础，他们有更多资金用于大幅增加股息和新的或扩展的股票回购计划。事实上，就在测试结果在周四登上头条后，他们中的几家宣布了两位数的股息增长。</p>
<p>总之，银行表现极为出色，投资者即将从中获得丰厚的回报。准备好迎接吧！</p>

德意志银行

瑞银集团

嘉信理财

<p>所有 32 家银行和金融机构均通过了美联储的年度压力测试，显示出在严重假设经济情境下的韧性。嘉信理财以超过 32% 的压力比率领先，其次是瑞银美洲、德意志银行美国和 TD 集团。结果表明，大型银行在应对经济衰退方面处于良好位置。因此，投资者可能会看到股价上涨以及显著的股息增加或回购，因为银行利用了多余的资本缓冲</p>

<p>In baseball, if a player smacks a hit 30% of the time they come to the plate, he or she is considered to be an exceptional talent. Given that, let’s give a hearty, sustained round of applause to America’s top lenders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在棒球比赛中，如果一名球员在上场时击球成功的概率为 30%，他或她就被认为是一个杰出的天才。基于此，让我们为美国的顶级贷款机构热烈而持久地鼓掌。</p>
</div><p>They deserve their hurrahs because each of the 32 banks and other financial institutions subjected to this year’s annual Federal Reserve (Fed) stress tests passed with the proverbial flying colors. Read on for which companies did the best under the Fed’s watchful eye, why the results are such good news for our economy, and how this will impact the shareholders of these companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们值得欢呼，因为今年接受年度美联储（Fed）压力测试的 32 家银行和其他金融机构都以优异的成绩通过了测试。继续阅读，了解哪些公司在美联储的严格审视下表现最佳，为什么这些结果对我们的经济如此利好，以及这将如何影响这些公司的股东。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2M4OGI4NmQ0MjU0ZTlkNThmZmViNzNlNjliMTg4ZTYyNjBlYzZhMGQtMjcwOXgxMTA2LmpwZz93PTI3MDkmaD0xMTA2JnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Fc88b86d4254e9d58ffeb73e69b188e6260ec6a0d-2709x1106.jpg%3Fw%3D2709%26h%3D1106%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Super stressed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超级压力测试</h2>
</div><p>The “stress” of the title is something of an understatement. The point of the Fed’s examination is to determine how effectively the nation’s most important banks (and, as we’ll see, bank-adjacent enterprises) would be able to cope with adverse economic scenarios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标题中的 “压力” 有些轻描淡写。美联储的检查目的是确定国家最重要的银行（以及我们将看到的与银行相关的企业）在面对不利经济情景时的应对能力。</p>
</div><p>There’s plenty of nightmare fuel in these hypothetical situations. This year, the Fed’s “severely adverse” scenario included a 39% collapse in commercial property values and, not to be outdone, a 30% dive in home prices. We sometimes fret about upticks in the unemployment rate measured in basis points, so how about a sudden, vicious spike in the indicator to 10%?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些假设情景中充满了噩梦般的情节。今年，美联储的 “严重不利” 情景包括商业房地产价值崩溃 39%，而房价也不甘示弱，暴跌 30%。我们有时会担心失业率以基点为单位的上升，那突然、剧烈地飙升至 10% 又如何？</p>
</div><p>Wall Street isn’t spared, either. The Fed wanted to model — perish the thought! — a 58% drop in equity prices. If that wasn’t bad enough, they also put the banks through the paces of a severe widening of corporate bond spreads, and a fear index that climbed to 72%. The companies under the microscope also had to “endure” events such as a global deflationary scenario in which the U.S. dollar appreciated quickly and violently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街也未能幸免。美联储想要模拟——可怕的是！——股价下跌 58%。如果这还不够糟糕，他们还让银行经历企业债券利差的严重扩大，以及恐慌指数飙升至 72%。在显微镜下的公司还必须 “忍受” 全球通缩情景，其中美元迅速而剧烈地升值。</p>
</div><h2>So, how did they do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>那么，他们表现如何？</h2>
</div><p>This ability to take such economic and financial hits is why we should be applauding so vigorously. The 32 companies tested not only “survived” these scenarios, they aced them. In technical terms, for those so inclined, every one stayed above its minimum common equity tier 1 capital requirements even in the most dire fictional circumstances.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种承受经济和金融冲击的能力正是我们应该如此热烈鼓掌的原因。这 32 家公司不仅 “生存” 了这些情景，而且表现出色。用技术术语来说，对于那些感兴趣的人，每一家在最严峻的虚构情况下都保持在其最低普通股一级资本要求之上。</p>
</div><p>Put in a more workmanlike way, per the Fed’s post-mortem press release on the tests, “large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession and able to continue to lend to households and businesses.” All told, they have enough capital to absorb almost $708 billion in losses — a massive amount by any yardstick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，根据美联储对测试的事后新闻稿，“大型银行在应对严重衰退方面处于良好状态，并能够继续向家庭和企业提供贷款。” 总的来说，他们有足够的资本来吸收近 7080 亿美元的损失——无论从哪个标准来看，这都是一个巨大的数字。</p>
</div><p>Under the most adverse combination of disasters, all lenders maintained sufficient capital to operate effectively. The winner among them was brokerage <strong>Charles Schwab</strong>(SCHW +0.64%), with a “stressed ratio” — equity capital divided by risk-weighted assets — over 32%. That’s especially impressive given that the range considered high and safe is 9% to 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最不利的灾难组合下，所有贷款机构都保持了足够的资本以有效运营。其中的赢家是经纪公司 <strong>嘉信理财</strong>（Charles Schwab）（SCHW +0.64%），其 “压力比率”——股本资本与风险加权资产之比——超过 32%。考虑到被认为高且安全的范围是 9% 到 12%，这尤其令人印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>Three international lenders with significant presence in the U.S. trailed Schwab. These were <strong>UBS</strong>(UBS +1.88%) Americas (15.3%), <strong>Deutsche Bank</strong>(DB +1.82%) USA (14.4%), and <strong>Toronto-Dominion Bank</strong>’s (TD +1.37%) TD Group. As for our country’s Big Four, <strong>JPMorgan Chase</strong>(JPM +2.91%) clocked a 12.6% score, <strong>Citigroup</strong>’s (C +2.70%) was 10.3%, <strong>Bank of America</strong>(BAC +2.12%) scored 9.9%, and <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>(WFC +2.25%) brought up the rear with 9.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三家在美国有重要存在的国际贷款机构紧随其后。这些是 <strong>瑞银集团</strong>（UBS）（UBS +1.88%）美洲（15.3%）、<strong>德意志银行</strong>（Deutsche Bank）（DB +1.82%）美国（14.4%）和 <strong>多伦多道明银行</strong>（Toronto-Dominion Bank）（TD +1.37%）的 TD 集团。至于我们国家的四大银行，<strong>摩根大通</strong>（JPMorgan Chase）（JPM +2.91%）的得分为 12.6%，<strong>花旗集团</strong>（Citigroup）（C +2.70%）为 10.3%，<strong>美国银行</strong>（Bank of America）（BAC +2.12%）得分为 9.9%，而 <strong>富国银行</strong>（Wells Fargo）（WFC +2.25%）以 9.2% 垫底。</p>
</div><h2>Let’s look forward to some dividend raises</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>期待一些股息增加</h2>
</div><p>There are plenty of other metrics for folks who like to get granular with their banks (supplementary leverage ratio, anyone?). The test results are fairly comprehensive report, after all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于喜欢深入了解银行的人来说，还有许多其他指标（补充杠杆比率，任何人都可以吗？）。毕竟，测试结果是相当全面的报告。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway, for me anyway, is this: despite macroeconomic hiccups and consumer/business worries about rising prices and potentially higher interest rates, the economy is motoring along, and these very healthy institutions are a key reason why. They’re lending capital, they’re providing credit, they’re building deposit bases, etc. In other words, doing everything good lenders do.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对我来说，结论是：尽管宏观经济出现波动，消费者和企业对价格上涨和潜在利率上升感到担忧，但经济仍在稳步前进，而这些非常健康的机构是其中的关键原因。他们在提供资本、提供信贷、建立存款基础等方面做得很好。换句话说，做着所有优秀贷款机构应该做的事情。</p>
</div><p>For investors, this will likely mean at least a bump in bank share prices over the next few days. More impactful (in my opinion), the Fed has, for now, frozen the &#34;stress capital buffer” requirements that determine banks’ scope for capital allocation measures. Since many have grown their capital bases significantly over the past year, they have more greenbacks for robust dividend raises and new or expanded share buyback programs. In fact, just after the test results hit the headlines on Thursday, several of them announced double-digit dividend hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于投资者来说，这可能意味着在接下来的几天里，银行股价至少会有所上涨。更重要的是（在我看来），美联储目前已冻结 “压力资本缓冲” 要求，这决定了银行资本配置措施的范围。由于许多银行在过去一年中显著增加了资本基础，他们有更多资金用于大幅增加股息和新的或扩展的股票回购计划。事实上，就在测试结果在周四登上头条后，他们中的几家宣布了两位数的股息增长。</p>
</div><p>In short, the banks did exceedingly well, and investors are about to reap some nice rewards from this. Batter up!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，银行表现极为出色，投资者即将从中获得丰厚的回报。准备好迎接吧！</p>
</div>

All Banks Crushed the Fed's Stress Tests This Year, and Some Truly Excelled

- 今年的联储压力测试中，32 家大型银行全部顺利通过。  
- 这些银行在经济恶化情境下保持充足资本，吸纳近 7080 亿美元损失。  
- 投资者可能会迎来股价上涨和丰厚的分红。

Motley Fool

Toronto Dominion Bank

摩根大通

花旗

美国银行

富国银行

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 5.95% DEP SHS REP 1/40 NON CUM PERP PF D

SCHWAB(CHARLES)CORP 4.450% DEP SHS REP 1/40TH N-CUM PFD SERJ

Deutsche Bank AG Subscription Rights

Deutsche Postbank AG

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.20% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER MM

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 6%NON CUM DEP SHS REP 1/400TH PFD SER EE

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. DEP REP 1/400TH (5.75% NON CUM PFD DD)

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.625% DEP SH RE 1/400TH INT NO CU PF LL

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.55% DEP SHS REPSTG 1/400TH PFD SER JJ

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 4.75 DEP SHS REP 1/400 NCUM PFD SR GG

CITIGROUP INC 6.250 NON CUM SER II PFD WI

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NON CUM PFD QQ

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '5'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 7.25% NON-CUM PERP CONV PFD SER L

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.875%NON CUM DEP SHS REP1/1000TH SER HH

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200TH PRF SERIES '2'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5% DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD LL

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHARES REP 1/1000TH PERP PFD SER 'E'

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION INCOME CAPITAL OBLIG NTS DUE 15/12/2066

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.375% DP SH RP 1/1000TH IN NON CU PF NN

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SH REP 1/1200TH PRF SER 1 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 5.375%DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM SR KK

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 6%NON CUM DEP SHS EACH REP 1/1000 SER GG

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1200 PFD SER 4 USD25

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH NON CUM PFD SER SS

BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION 4.125%DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER PP USD25

Bank of America Corp

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A CC

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

今年所有银行都顺利通过了美联储的压力测试，其中一些银行的表现尤为突出