<p>精明的股市投资者知道，没有什么能像通货膨胀一样扼杀牛市。</p>
<p>在 2022 年，商品价格飙升使疫情期间的牛市降温，并迫使美联储提高利率，导致股票在那一年大幅下跌。同样，1970 年代因通货膨胀而被广泛认为是一个失落的十年，部分原因是油价上涨。</p>
<p>投资者正面临另一个能源危机，这源于霍尔木兹海峡的对峙，再次推高了价格。个人消费支出（PCE）报告，即美联储首选的通货膨胀指标，显示价格以三年来最快的速度上涨。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>PCE 通货膨胀报告说了什么？</h2>
<p>根据 PCE 价格指数，通货膨胀在 5 月份上涨了 0.4%，与 4 月份持平，超出预期的 0.5% 增长。核心通货膨胀（不包括食品和能源）上涨了 0.3%，而 4 月份为 0.2%。按年计算，PCE 指数上涨了 4.1%，高于 4 月份的 3.8%，而核心 PCE 上涨了 3.4%。</p>
<p>自伊朗战争开始以来，通货膨胀率显然发生了变化，尽管核心通货膨胀因不包括能源价格而增长较慢。</p>
<p>投资者对这些数字不以为然，因为 <strong>标普 500</strong> 在今天中午时分几乎持平。市场似乎更关注 <strong>美光</strong> 昨晚发布的另一份超预期的财报后，内存短缺的影响，而 <strong>苹果</strong> 股票在宣布涨价以转嫁更高的内存和存储成本后下跌。</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
<p>投资者通常关注 PCE，因为美联储会监测它以做出利率决策。</p>
<p>在本月早些时候的 “点阵图” 预测中，美联储表示现在预计今年将加息一次，而不是 3 月份预测的降息一次。它还表示预计 PCE 通货膨胀将在年底达到 3.3%。</p>
<p>目前，通货膨胀和利率走向都存在很大的不确定性。</p>
<p>油价作为通货膨胀的主要驱动因素，自特朗普总统本月早些时候宣布结束战争以来开始下跌，尽管霍尔木兹海峡的状况仍不确定。布伦特原油价格现在处于战争爆发以来的最低点，交易价格约为每桶 72 美元，这表明交易员对战争即将结束和海峡将重新开放充满信心。</p>
<p>如果这是真的，那么这也意味着通货膨胀的担忧比通常情况下要小，因为根据克利夫兰联储的预测，预计 6 月份通货膨胀将适度下降。</p>
<p>通货膨胀往往使加息的可能性增加，但由于新任美联储主席凯文·沃什对预测的需求有所降低，并认为美联储应该少说话，因此加息也存在额外的不确定性。沃什甚至拒绝给出他自己对点阵图的预测。</p>
<p>总体而言，通货膨胀值得投资者关注，但考虑到油价的下降和美联储缺乏明确性，它的影响力比通常情况下要小。不过，如果中东局势发生变化，油价再次上涨，不要惊讶未来的 PCE 报告会影响市场。</p>

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<p>最新的个人消费支出（PCE）通胀报告显示，价格以三年来最快的速度上涨，年度指数上升至 4.1%。尽管出现这一激增，投资者仍然大致保持冷静，标普 500 指数保持平稳，反而将注意力集中在科技公司财报和内存短缺上。尽管由于地缘政治发展，油价有所下降，但关于美联储在新领导下未来利率决策的不确定性依然存在</p>

<p>Savvy stock market investors know that nothing can kill a bull market like inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>精明的股市投资者知道，没有什么能像通货膨胀一样扼杀牛市。</p>
</div><p>In 2022, soaring prices for goods cooled off the pandemic-era bull market, and pushed the Fed to jack up interest rates, sending stocks swooning that year. Similarly, the 1970s are widely considered a lost decade due to inflation, in part driven by rising oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2022 年，商品价格飙升使疫情期间的牛市降温，并迫使美联储提高利率，导致股票在那一年大幅下跌。同样，1970 年代因通货膨胀而被广泛认为是一个失落的十年，部分原因是油价上涨。</p>
</div><p>Investors are facing another energy crisis stemming from the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which is driving up prices again. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rising at their fastest pace in three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正面临另一个能源危机，这源于霍尔木兹海峡的对峙，再次推高了价格。个人消费支出（PCE）报告，即美联储首选的通货膨胀指标，显示价格以三年来最快的速度上涨。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uLzcxNGIzOWE3NjRiZTA0MWU5NTJkYjRlN2Q1OGNjNTI5MzYyYTU3NzUtMTIwMHg4MDAuanBnP3c9MTIwMCZoPTgwMCZxPTc1JmF1dG89Zm9ybWF0Jnc9Mzg0MA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2F714b39a764be041e952db4e7d58cc529362a5775-1200x800.jpg%3Fw%3D1200%26h%3D800%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>What did the PCE inflation report say?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>PCE 通货膨胀报告说了什么？</h2>
</div><p>Inflation, as measured by the PCE price index, rose 0.4% in May, matching April and beating expectations of 0.5% growth. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in April. On an annual basis, the PCE index was up 4.1%, increasing from 3.8% in April, while core PCE rose 3.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 PCE 价格指数，通货膨胀在 5 月份上涨了 0.4%，与 4 月份持平，超出预期的 0.5% 增长。核心通货膨胀（不包括食品和能源）上涨了 0.3%，而 4 月份为 0.2%。按年计算，PCE 指数上涨了 4.1%，高于 4 月份的 3.8%，而核心 PCE 上涨了 3.4%。</p>
</div><p>The inflation rate has clearly inflected since the war in Iran began, though core inflation has grown less slowly since it excludes energy prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自伊朗战争开始以来，通货膨胀率显然发生了变化，尽管核心通货膨胀因不包括能源价格而增长较慢。</p>
</div><p>Investors shrugged off the numbers as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was near flat around noon today. The market seemed focused instead on the impact of the memory shortage after <strong>Micron</strong> delivered another blowout earnings report last night, and <strong>Apple</strong> stock was down after announcing price hikes to pass on higher memory and storage costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者对这些数字不以为然，因为 <strong>标普 500</strong> 在今天中午时分几乎持平。市场似乎更关注 <strong>美光</strong> 昨晚发布的另一份超预期的财报后，内存短缺的影响，而 <strong>苹果</strong> 股票在宣布涨价以转嫁更高的内存和存储成本后下跌。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Investors tend to keep an eye on the PCE because the Federal Reserve monitors it to make interest rate decisions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者通常关注 PCE，因为美联储会监测它以做出利率决策。</p>
</div><p>In its “dot plot” forecast earlier this month, the Fed said it now expects one rate hike this year, up from a forecast in March of one rate cut. It also said that it expected PCE inflation to end the year at 3.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本月早些时候的 “点阵图” 预测中，美联储表示现在预计今年将加息一次，而不是 3 月份预测的降息一次。它还表示预计 PCE 通货膨胀将在年底达到 3.3%。</p>
</div><p>Right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty in both inflation and where interest rates are headed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，通货膨胀和利率走向都存在很大的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices, which have been the primary driver of inflation, have started to come down since President Trump announced an end to the war earlier this month, though the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Brent crude prices are now at their lowest since the war broke out, trading around $72 a barrel, suggesting traders are confident the war is winding down, and the Strait will reopen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价作为通货膨胀的主要驱动因素，自特朗普总统本月早些时候宣布结束战争以来开始下跌，尽管霍尔木兹海峡的状况仍不确定。布伦特原油价格现在处于战争爆发以来的最低点，交易价格约为每桶 72 美元，这表明交易员对战争即将结束和海峡将重新开放充满信心。</p>
</div><p>If that’s true, it also means that inflation is less of a concern than it normally would be, since it’s expected to come down modestly in June, according to forecast from the Cleveland Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这是真的，那么这也意味着通货膨胀的担忧比通常情况下要小，因为根据克利夫兰联储的预测，预计 6 月份通货膨胀将适度下降。</p>
</div><p>Inflation tends to make an interest rate hike more likely, but there’s also additional uncertainty around rate hikes due to new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has tamped down the need for forecasts and believes the Fed should say less about what it thinks. Warsh even refused to give his own forecast for the dot plot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通货膨胀往往使加息的可能性增加，但由于新任美联储主席凯文·沃什对预测的需求有所降低，并认为美联储应该少说话，因此加息也存在额外的不确定性。沃什甚至拒绝给出他自己对点阵图的预测。</p>
</div><p>Overall, inflation deserves monitoring from investors, but given the decline in oil prices and the Fed’s lack of clarity, it’s less of a factor than it normally would be. Still, if the situation in the Middle East changes and oil prices start rising again, don’t be surprised if future PCE reports swing markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，通货膨胀值得投资者关注，但考虑到油价的下降和美联储缺乏明确性，它的影响力比通常情况下要小。不过，如果中东局势发生变化，油价再次上涨，不要惊讶未来的 PCE 报告会影响市场。</p>
</div>

PCE Inflation Reached Its Highest Level in 3 Years. Here’s What Investors Need to Know.

- 2022 年，通货膨胀导致美联储加息，打击股市。
- PCE 报告显示，5 月通胀同比上涨 4.1%，核心通胀上涨 3.4%。
- 油价回落令通胀预期减弱，但中东局势仍需关注。

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PCE 通胀率达到三年来的最高水平。以下是投资者需要知道的信息