<p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>重大考验可能在 2027 年到来</p>
<p>新任美联储主席凯文·沃什通过对通胀的强硬表态，帮助降低国债收益率。</p>
<p>在新任主席凯文·沃什的领导下，美联储对恢复 2% 的通胀目标显得非常认真。</p>
<p>这种谨慎的语气似乎足以在目前缓解 30 万亿美元国债市场的紧张情绪。尽管 5 月份的通胀数据显示当前通胀率超过美联储目标的两倍。</p>
<p>“他的强硬表态有所帮助，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨周五表示。沃什暗示他不会为了取悦白宫而降息，也不会让通胀失控，这有助于拉低国债收益率，布利茨说。“这差别很大。”</p>
<p>美联储偏好的通胀指标周四达到了 4.1%，是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。这与两周前的消费者价格指数的读数相近。</p>
<p>利率市场对这一读数没有比预期更糟的情况感到些许安慰，Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的投资组合策略师加雷特·梅尔森表示。随着油价回到伊朗战争开始前的水平，他表示，市场对通胀可能见顶感到乐观。</p>
<p>尽管伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击了一艘船，突显了停火的脆弱性，但美国和全球的油价（CL00）（BRN00）周五接近每桶 70 美元。</p>
<p>相关：一个拒绝 OPEC 控制的世界可能会迎来每桶低于 50 美元的油价</p>
<p>自沃什在 6 月首次以美联储主席身份召开新闻发布会以来，2026 年加息的可能性上升。他提到市场在指导利率、通胀和经济走向方面应有更大的发言权。</p>
<p>毕竟，自美联储在 2024 年 9 月开始降息以来，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 一直在上升，而不是下降，如下图所示。</p>
<p>10 年期国债收益率对家庭来说非常重要，因为它是新 30 年期抵押贷款的起点。它也支撑着企业和经济的融资。周五收益率降至 4.38%，为 5 月底以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>财政部一直控制长期政府债券的发行，以控制供应和成本，因为它借款以资助巨额的美国赤字。美联储或财政部失去债券市场信心将是危险的。</p>
<p>与此同时，家庭在今年大幅消耗储蓄的同时继续消费。股票市场的牛市 SPX 帮助了拥有资产的家庭，尽管不断上升的通胀侵蚀了工资。</p>
<p>根据布利茨的说法，沃什的反通胀言论本周在债券市场中消除了部分通胀溢价。“他在一开始就赢得了公关战，” 他说。这为未来几个月让较低的油价在通胀数据中逐渐显现争取了一些时间，但这并不保证斗争已经结束。</p>
<p>政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 周五降至 4.09%。但这仍远高于美联储政策利率的上限 3.75%。较高的国债收益率与美联储 6 月的 “点阵图” 相对应，后者也指向今年的加息。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，沃什拒绝提供自己的点阵图，表示他不喜欢向公众传达这样的指导。尽管白宫本周表示支持沃什采取独立的方法来管理通胀和经济，但此前曾多次催促沃什的前任杰罗姆·鲍威尔降息。</p>
<p>“我认为凯文·沃什不想在他领导的前六个月内就负责加息，” 富国银行投资研究所全球固定收益策略负责人布莱恩·瑞林说。“但如果他真的致力于 2% 的通胀，而经济仍然强劲，他可能会被逼入绝境。”</p>
<p>亚特兰大联储周五的追踪数据显示，加息的概率为 67%，虽然低于近期高点，但较两个月前的 31% 有所上升。这反映了中央银行政策范围上调 25 个基点的概率。</p>
<p>仅仅是加息的威胁可能有助于在今年年底之前抑制收益率。但如果经济因人工智能支出繁荣而强劲增长，通胀上升，可能在 2027 年需要的不仅仅是言辞。</p>
<p>“到明年，” 布利茨说，“除非股市崩盘，否则他们将会加息。”</p>
<p>周五股市上涨，但标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 都面临周度亏损，而道琼斯指数 DJIA 上涨 0.8%，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
<p>现在阅读：第一季度 GDP 大幅提升，但这并不是真正的好消息</p>
<p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>

<p>美联储主席凯文·沃什对通胀的强硬立场正在帮助降低国债收益率，尽管 5 月份的通胀数据表明通胀率为 4.1%，远高于 2% 的目标。市场对沃什致力于价格稳定的承诺反应积极，10 年期国债收益率降至 4.38%。尽管油价已经稳定，减轻了一些通胀压力，但由于经济强劲和持续的通胀风险，未来加息的可能性仍然很大</p>

<p>By Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>The big test might come in 2027</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重大考验可能在 2027 年到来</p>
</div><p>Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, is helping coax Treasury yields lower by talking tough on inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新任美联储主席凯文·沃什通过对通胀的强硬表态，帮助降低国债收益率。</p>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh, sounds serious about getting back to 2% inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在新任主席凯文·沃什的领导下，美联储对恢复 2% 的通胀目标显得非常认真。</p>
</div><p>The guarded tone seems to be enough - for now - to ease nerves in the $30 trillion Treasury market. This comes despite inflation data for May showing the current rate is more than double the Fed's target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种谨慎的语气似乎足以在目前缓解 30 万亿美元国债市场的紧张情绪。尽管 5 月份的通胀数据显示当前通胀率超过美联储目标的两倍。</p>
</div><p>&#34;His tough talk helps,&#34; Steven Blitz, chief economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, said on Friday. Warsh signaled that he won't cut rates to please the White House or let inflation fly, which is helping pull Treasury yields lower, Blitz said. &#34;That makes a big difference.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他的强硬表态有所帮助，” GlobalData TS Lombard 的首席经济学家史蒂文·布利茨周五表示。沃什暗示他不会为了取悦白宫而降息，也不会让通胀失控，这有助于拉低国债收益率，布利茨说。“这差别很大。”</p>
</div><p>The Fed's preferred inflation gauge reached 4.1% on Thursday, the highest reading since April 2023. That's in the same ballpark as the reading of the consumer-price index two weeks ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储偏好的通胀指标周四达到了 4.1%，是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。这与两周前的消费者价格指数的读数相近。</p>
</div><p>The rates market took some solace in that reading not coming in any worse than feared, said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. With oil prices back near where they were before the start of the Iran war, there's optimism that inflation may be peaking, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率市场对这一读数没有比预期更糟的情况感到些许安慰，Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 的投资组合策略师加雷特·梅尔森表示。随着油价回到伊朗战争开始前的水平，他表示，市场对通胀可能见顶感到乐观。</p>
</div><p>U.S. and global oil (CL00) (BRN00) prices were down close to $70 a barrel on Friday, despite an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz that underscored the fragile nature of the cease-fire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡袭击了一艘船，突显了停火的脆弱性，但美国和全球的油价（CL00）（BRN00）周五接近每桶 70 美元。</p>
</div><p>Related: A world rejecting OPEC controls could usher in oil below $50 a barrel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相关：一个拒绝 OPEC 控制的世界可能会迎来每桶低于 50 美元的油价</p>
</div><p>Since Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair in June, the odds of a rate hike in 2026 have climbed. He spoke of markets having a bigger voice in guiding the path of rates, inflation and the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自沃什在 6 月首次以美联储主席身份召开新闻发布会以来，2026 年加息的可能性上升。他提到市场在指导利率、通胀和经济走向方面应有更大的发言权。</p>
</div><p>After all, 10-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y have pushed higher, not lower, since the Fed started cutting short-term rates in September 2024, as the below chart shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，自美联储在 2024 年 9 月开始降息以来，10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 一直在上升，而不是下降，如下图所示。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yield is important to households because it's a starting point for new 30-year mortgage loans. It also underpins financing for businesses and the economy. It dipped to 4.38% on Friday, its lowest since late May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期国债收益率对家庭来说非常重要，因为它是新 30 年期抵押贷款的起点。它也支撑着企业和经济的融资。周五收益率降至 4.38%，为 5 月底以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The Treasury Department has kept a lid on issuing longer-duration government bonds to control supply and costs as it borrows to fund the large U.S. deficit. It would be dangerous for the Fed or the Treasury Department to lose the confidence of the bond market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部一直控制长期政府债券的发行，以控制供应和成本，因为它借款以资助巨额的美国赤字。美联储或财政部失去债券市场信心将是危险的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, households have dramatically depleted their savings this year while continuing to spend. The bull market in stocks SPX has helped families who own assets, even as rising inflation has eroded wages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，家庭在今年大幅消耗储蓄的同时继续消费。股票市场的牛市 SPX 帮助了拥有资产的家庭，尽管不断上升的通胀侵蚀了工资。</p>
</div><p>Warsh's anti-inflation rhetoric took some of the inflation premium out of the bond market this week, according to Blitz. &#34;He won the PR battle out of the gate,&#34; he said. That buys some time to let lower oil prices filter through inflation data in the coming months, he said, but it doesn't guarantee the fight is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据布利茨的说法，沃什的反通胀言论本周在债券市场中消除了部分通胀溢价。“他在一开始就赢得了公关战，” 他说。这为未来几个月让较低的油价在通胀数据中逐渐显现争取了一些时间，但这并不保证斗争已经结束。</p>
</div><p>The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD02Y fell to 4.09% Friday. But that's still well above the Fed's 3.75% upper limit for its policy rate. A higher Treasury yield corresponds with the Fed's June &#34;dot plot,&#34; which also pointed to hikes this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策敏感的 2 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD02Y 周五降至 4.09%。但这仍远高于美联储政策利率的上限 3.75%。较高的国债收益率与美联储 6 月的 “点阵图” 相对应，后者也指向今年的加息。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Warsh declined to offer his own dots, saying he is not a fan of telegraphing such guidance to the public. The White House this week signaled support for Warsh taking an independent approach to managing inflation and the economy, despite having repeatedly badgered Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell, to cut rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，沃什拒绝提供自己的点阵图，表示他不喜欢向公众传达这样的指导。尽管白宫本周表示支持沃什采取独立的方法来管理通胀和经济，但此前曾多次催促沃什的前任杰罗姆·鲍威尔降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't think Kevin Warsh wants to come in and within his first six months of leadership be responsible for a rate hike,&#34; said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed-income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. &#34;But if he's truly committed to 2% [inflation] and the economy remains robust, he may be backed into a corner.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我认为凯文·沃什不想在他领导的前六个月内就负责加息，” 富国银行投资研究所全球固定收益策略负责人布莱恩·瑞林说。“但如果他真的致力于 2% 的通胀，而经济仍然强劲，他可能会被逼入绝境。”</p>
</div><p>The Atlanta Fed's tracker on Friday put the probability of a rate hike at 67%, off recent highs but up from 31% two months ago. That reflects the probability of the central bank's policy range moving up by 25 basis points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚特兰大联储周五的追踪数据显示，加息的概率为 67%，虽然低于近期高点，但较两个月前的 31% 有所上升。这反映了中央银行政策范围上调 25 个基点的概率。</p>
</div><p>Just the threat of rate hikes might help keep a lid on yields through the end of this year. But a stronger economy, fed by the artificial-intelligence spending boom, and an uptick in inflation could require more than talk in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅仅是加息的威胁可能有助于在今年年底之前抑制收益率。但如果经济因人工智能支出繁荣而强劲增长，通胀上升，可能在 2027 年需要的不仅仅是言辞。</p>
</div><p>&#34;By next year,&#34; Blitz said, &#34;they're going to be hiking&#34; unless the equity market crashes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“到明年，” 布利茨说，“除非股市崩盘，否则他们将会加息。”</p>
</div><p>Stocks were higher Friday, but both the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq composite COMP were set for weekly losses, while the Dow DJIA was up 0.8%, according to FactSet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周五股市上涨，但标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数 COMP 都面临周度亏损，而道琼斯指数 DJIA 上涨 0.8%，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
</div><p>Now read: First-quarter GDP gets big boost, but it's not really great news</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在阅读：第一季度 GDP 大幅提升，但这并不是真正的好消息</p>
</div><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joy Wiltermuth</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>06-26-26 1339ET</p>
</div>

Bond yields are falling as inflation pops. The Fed's tough talk under Warsh is helping.

Dow Jones

标普 500 指数

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纳斯达克综合指数

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WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT NCUM PFD CL A DD

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 7.5% PERP CONV PRF CLS 'A' SERIES 'L'

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 INT PER PFD SER Y A

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WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 4.75% DEP SHS 1/1000 NCUM PFD CL A SR Z

WELLS FARGO & COMPANY DEP SHS REP 1/1000TH INT PFD SR AA (CLA)

随着通货膨胀的上升，债券收益率正在下降。在沃什的领导下，美联储的强硬言论正在产生效果