<p>当一位新任首席执行官接管公司时，他们有时会尝试立即做出高影响力的声明，比如埃隆·马斯克在 2022 年将一个瓷水槽带入推特总部并发推文：“进入推特总部——让这一点深入人心！”</p>
<p>虽然新任美联储主席凯文·沃什的首次举动没有马斯克那么引人注目，但他在第一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上确实引起了很大反响。他毫不掩饰自己对 “照常营业” 并不感兴趣的态度。相反，他明确表示了要对抗通货膨胀的意图。</p>
<p>以下是沃什所说的话，以及这可能对华尔街造成的麻烦。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>超出范围</h2>
<p>十六年前，美联储正式将其长期通胀目标设定为每年温和的 2%。这个数字自 1996 年以来一直是非正式的，但直到 2012 年才公开。自那次公告后的近十年里，美联储基本上将通胀保持在 2% 的目标以下。</p>
<p>不幸的是，近年来情况并非如此。根据消费者价格指数（CPI）衡量的通胀率，自 2021 年 2 月以来就没有低于 2%，那时正值 COVID-19 疫情的高峰期。2022 年 6 月，通胀率达到了 9% 的峰值，然后急剧下降。自 2023 年 7 月以来，通胀率一直徘徊在 2.3% 到 3.8% 之间。</p>
<p>直到上个月，通胀率飙升至 4.2%，是 18 个月以来的最高水平。大问题是新任美联储主席凯文·沃什将对此采取什么措施。</p>
<h2>钉子落下</h2>
<p>美联储遏制通胀的主要工具是提高基准联邦基金利率，目前该利率在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间。沃什的批评者担心，他会屈从于唐纳德·特朗普总统明确希望美联储降低利率以刺激经济增长的愿望，尽管这可能会带来更高的通胀风险。</p>
<p>但沃什明确表示他没有意图这样做。“委员会将实现价格稳定，” FOMC 在上周的一份一致声明中表示。这似乎保证了在年底之前至少会有一次加息，但 <strong>美国银行</strong> 认为这足够明确，暗示在 2027 年之前可能会有_三次_加息。市场对此并不太喜欢：<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 在消息公布后下跌了 1.2%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>沃什主席在 2026 年 6 月 17 日的 FOMC 新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
<p>美联储在 2023 年 8 月至 2024 年 8 月期间将利率提高至 5.3%，但通胀仍顽固地高于美联储的 2% 目标。如果沃什认真想要将通胀降回 2%——而他显然是认真的——美联储可能需要将利率推得更高。</p>
<p>较高的利率往往有利于银行和保险公司，因为它们可以对贷款收取更高的费用。但成长型股票，尤其是那些依赖债务融资扩张的小型股票，可能会在借贷成本上升的情况下难以保持强劲增长。同样，承诺进行大规模人工智能资本支出的公司可能会推迟这些项目，这可能导致它们的股票——以及人工智能基础设施提供商的股票——出现下滑。</p>
<p>投资者在未来需要确保他们的投资组合保持平衡，如果高增长股票在他们的投资组合中占据了过大的比例，考虑进行再平衡可能是明智的。</p>

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<p>新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）发出了鹰派信号，以应对上个月达到 4.2% 的通胀上升。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）一致承诺维持价格稳定，这暗示可能会加息，令市场感到不安，导致标普 500 指数下跌 1.2%。更高的利率可能有利于银行，但对成长型股票和人工智能资本项目造成伤害，促使投资者重新调整投资组合</p>

<p>When a new CEO takes the reins at a company, they sometimes try to make an immediate high-impact statement, like Elon Musk carrying a porcelain sink into Twitter's headquarters in 2022 and tweeting, &#34;Entering Twitter HQ-let that sink in!&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当一位新任首席执行官接管公司时，他们有时会尝试立即做出高影响力的声明，比如埃隆·马斯克在 2022 年将一个瓷水槽带入推特总部并发推文：“进入推特总部——让这一点深入人心！”</p>
</div><p>And while new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first move wasn't quite as flashy as Musk's, he certainly made a big splash at his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting. He left no doubt that he wasn't interested in &#34;business as usual.&#34; Instead, he clearly signaled his intention to bring down the hammer on inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然新任美联储主席凯文·沃什的首次举动没有马斯克那么引人注目，但他在第一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上确实引起了很大反响。他毫不掩饰自己对 “照常营业” 并不感兴趣的态度。相反，他明确表示了要对抗通货膨胀的意图。</p>
</div><p>Here's what Warsh said and why it could spell trouble for Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是沃什所说的话，以及这可能对华尔街造成的麻烦。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQyMTQ1MzU4Ny0xMjAweDc2OS00NWJhNDQ0LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875267%2Fgettyimages-1421453587-1200x769-45ba444.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Outside the range</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>超出范围</h2>
</div><p>Sixteen years ago, the Fed officially established its long-term inflation target as a modest 2% per year. That number had been unofficial since 1996, but it wasn't made public until 2012. For almost a decade after that announcement, the Fed largely kept inflation below that 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十六年前，美联储正式将其长期通胀目标设定为每年温和的 2%。这个数字自 1996 年以来一直是非正式的，但直到 2012 年才公开。自那次公告后的近十年里，美联储基本上将通胀保持在 2% 的目标以下。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case in recent years. The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hasn't been below 2% since February 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. In June 2022, it peaked at 9% before dropping sharply. It's been hovering between 2.3% and 3.8% since July 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，近年来情况并非如此。根据消费者价格指数（CPI）衡量的通胀率，自 2021 年 2 月以来就没有低于 2%，那时正值 COVID-19 疫情的高峰期。2022 年 6 月，通胀率达到了 9% 的峰值，然后急剧下降。自 2023 年 7 月以来，通胀率一直徘徊在 2.3% 到 3.8% 之间。</p>
</div><p>That is, until last month, when it shot up to 4.2%, the highest level in 18 months. And the big question was what the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, was going to do about it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到上个月，通胀率飙升至 4.2%，是 18 个月以来的最高水平。大问题是新任美联储主席凯文·沃什将对此采取什么措施。</p>
</div><h2>The hammer is dropping</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>钉子落下</h2>
</div><p>The Fed's primary tool for curbing inflation is raising its benchmark federal funds interest rate, which currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. Warsh's critics worried that he would acquiesce to President Donald Trump's clear desire for the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, despite the risk of higher inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储遏制通胀的主要工具是提高基准联邦基金利率，目前该利率在 3.5% 到 3.75% 之间。沃什的批评者担心，他会屈从于唐纳德·特朗普总统明确希望美联储降低利率以刺激经济增长的愿望，尽管这可能会带来更高的通胀风险。</p>
</div><p>But Warsh made clear he had no intention of doing that. &#34;The Committee will deliver price stability,&#34; the FOMC said in a unanimous statement last week. That seems to guarantee at least one interest rate hike before the end of the year, but <strong>Bank of America</strong> thought it was emphatic enough to suggest <em>three</em> rate hikes before 2027 rolls around. The market didn't like that idea much: The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> dropped 1.2% on the news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沃什明确表示他没有意图这样做。“委员会将实现价格稳定，” FOMC 在上周的一份一致声明中表示。这似乎保证了在年底之前至少会有一次加息，但 <strong>美国银行</strong> 认为这足够明确，暗示在 2027 年之前可能会有_三次_加息。市场对此并不太喜欢：<strong>标普 500 指数</strong> 在消息公布后下跌了 1.2%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzUyNjcvNTUzNDE2NDA1NDRfNWM0OGQ5MDdkY19iLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875267%2F55341640544_5c48d907dc_b.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Chairman Warsh answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on June 17, 2026. Image source: Official Federal Reserve Photo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什主席在 2026 年 6 月 17 日的 FOMC 新闻发布会上回答记者提问。图片来源：美联储官方照片。</p>
</div><p>The Fed raised interest rates to 5.3% between August 2023 and August 2024, but inflation still stayed stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target. If Warsh is serious about getting inflation back down to 2% -- and he certainly sounds serious -- the Fed might have to push rates even higher than that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在 2023 年 8 月至 2024 年 8 月期间将利率提高至 5.3%，但通胀仍顽固地高于美联储的 2% 目标。如果沃什认真想要将通胀降回 2%——而他显然是认真的——美联储可能需要将利率推得更高。</p>
</div><p>Higher rates tend to benefit banks and insurance companies, which benefit from the higher fees they can charge on loans. But growth stocks, especially smaller ones that rely on debt to finance expansion, will likely struggle to maintain robust growth as borrowing becomes more expensive. Similarly, companies that have committed to big AI capital expenditures may end up delaying those projects, which could cause their stocks -- and those of AI infrastructure providers -- to falter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的利率往往有利于银行和保险公司，因为它们可以对贷款收取更高的费用。但成长型股票，尤其是那些依赖债务融资扩张的小型股票，可能会在借贷成本上升的情况下难以保持强劲增长。同样，承诺进行大规模人工智能资本支出的公司可能会推迟这些项目，这可能导致它们的股票——以及人工智能基础设施提供商的股票——出现下滑。</p>
</div><p>Investors will want to make sure their portfolio is balanced moving forward, and if high-growth stocks have grown to outsize positions in their portfolio, it may be wise to think about rebalancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在未来需要确保他们的投资组合保持平衡，如果高增长股票在他们的投资组合中占据了过大的比例，考虑进行再平衡可能是明智的。</p>
</div>

Kevin Warsh Just Suggested the Fed May Bring Down the Hammer on Inflation. Could It Spell Trouble for Wall Street?

- 新任主席凯文·沃什在美联储的首次会议上明确表达降通胀意图。  
- 通胀率自 2021 年 2 月以来未低于 2%，2026 年 5 月达到 4.2%。  
- 加息将影响经济增长，尤其是高成长股票与 AI 投资项目。

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凯文·沃什刚刚暗示美联储可能会对通胀采取严厉措施。这是否会对华尔街造成困扰？