<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.42%）制造了大多数人工智能（AI）建设背后的芯片，其股东的回报非常可观。但最近出现了一种新的担忧：如果 AI 支出接近峰值怎么办？这个问题使得股价自 5 月中旬的高点下跌了约 18%，尽管英伟达的业务仍在加速发展。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，现在是时候屏蔽短期噪音，专注于长期了。那么，股票在 2030 年可能会在哪里呢？</p>
<p>不幸的是，可能的结果范围很广——不仅因为在快速变化的行业中其业务的不可预测性，还因为其股票的高估值。英伟达可能会继续全速执行，但从这里开始仍然只能为投资者带来普通的回报。或者，AI 支出可能比怀疑者预期的更具韧性，让公司在今天的价格基础上继续增长。</p>
<p>这两种结果都是合理的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NjcvbnZpZGlhLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NjcvbnZpZGlhLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>看涨案例：需求仍在激增</h2>
<p>需求显然不是问题。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为整个看涨案例都依赖于此。</p>
<p>英伟达最近一个季度没有显示出放缓的迹象。在其 2027 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日），收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，而其以 AI 为重点的数据中心部门增长 92%，达到 752 亿美元。</p>
<p>此外，管理层预计 2027 财年第二季度的收入约为 910 亿美元。</p>
<p>英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司 2027 财年第一季度的财报中表示：“AI 工厂的建设——人类历史上最大的基础设施扩张——正在以惊人的速度加速。”</p>
<p>支撑这一需求的支出令人震惊。<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 预计将在 2026 年共同花费约 7250 亿美元用于资本项目——比去年增长约 77%，其中大部分指向 AI 基础设施。</p>
<p>当然，并不是所有这些资金都流向英伟达。但 图形处理单元（GPU） 仍然是建设的核心部分，而英伟达仍然提供大多数 GPU。</p>
<p>一个新的产品周期也即将到来。英伟达下一代 Vera Rubin 平台预计将在 2026 年下半年由合作伙伴推出。如果这次建设被证明是一个多年的转变，而不是一次性的激增，英伟达可以在 2030 年之前继续增长。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英伟达</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-1.42%) $-2.77</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$192.97</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.7 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$191.22 - $195.54</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$151.49 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>480 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1.616 亿</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.14%</p>
<h2>看跌案例：峰值与竞争加剧</h2>
<p>但在这里，空头有一个值得认真对待的观点。</p>
<p>那 7250 亿美元的支出越来越多地依赖于债务（在某些情况下是股权，这稀释了股东），自由现金流受到压力，对于一些客户来说，支出甚至可能变为负数。因此，以这种速度进行的支出可能不会持续加速，当支出放缓时，英伟达的增长也可能随之放缓。</p>
<p>芯片业务一直是周期性的，没有理由认为这次不会如此。</p>
<p>竞争是另一个压力点。</p>
<p>英伟达最大的客户也是其新兴竞争对手。Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和 Meta 都在设计内部芯片，以减少对英伟达的依赖并降低 AI 计算 的成本——亚马逊和谷歌制造的硅芯片已经为像 Anthropic 这样的 AI 开发者提供了大量工作负载。<strong>超微半导体</strong> 也在推动自己的加速器。</p>
<p>当然，英伟达仍然是主导者。但在几年内，可信的替代品可能会侵蚀其定价能力——而英伟达大约 75% 的毛利率远高于典型芯片制造商。如果该毛利率在增长放缓时缩小，英伟达的财务业绩可能会在两个方面同时令人失望。</p>
<p>唯一对股票有利的因素是估值已经下降。英伟达的市盈率约为 30 倍——远低于过去两年大部分时间的 40 倍以上的倍数。显然，市场对周期何时达到峰值已经有些不安，这一点已经反映在股价中。</p>
<p>那么，这将股票在 2030 年置于何处？</p>
<p>英伟达很可能到那时会成为一个更大、更有利可图的企业。但股票的结果范围异常广泛。如果建设持续进行且毛利率保持，股票可能以高单位数到低双位数的年增长率复合——从今天约 193 美元起，到 2030 年可能达到高 200 美元到低 300 美元。如果 AI 支出在一两年内达到峰值且竞争压低价格，股票可能会在收入增长的同时多年停滞不前。</p>
<p>考虑到今天股票的估值倍数更为合理，以及基础业务的非凡动能，我个人倾向于在这个范围内稍微偏向乐观的一方。</p>

英伟达

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

南方两倍做多英伟达

<p>英伟达股票面临关于人工智能支出高峰和科技巨头设计自家芯片的竞争加剧的不确定性。尽管主要云服务提供商的资本支出仍然强劲，但潜在的利润压缩和周期性放缓带来了风险。分析师对 2030 年的预期结果范围广泛，乐观情景预测年增长率为高单位数到低双位数，而悲观观点则警告如果支出放缓或定价能力下降，可能会出现停滞</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.42%) makes the chips behind most of the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, and the payoff for its shareholders has been enormous. But lately a new worry has surfaced: What if AI spending is near its peak? That question has pushed the stock down about 18% from its mid-May high as of this writing, even as Nvidia's business keeps accelerating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.42%）制造了大多数人工智能（AI）建设背后的芯片，其股东的回报非常可观。但最近出现了一种新的担忧：如果 AI 支出接近峰值怎么办？这个问题使得股价自 5 月中旬的高点下跌了约 18%，尽管英伟达的业务仍在加速发展。</p>
</div><p>Given this backdrop, it's a good time to tune out the near-term noise and focus on the long-term. So, where could the stock realistically be in 2030?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，现在是时候屏蔽短期噪音，专注于长期了。那么，股票在 2030 年可能会在哪里呢？</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately, the possible outcomes are wide -- not just because of the unpredictable nature of its business in a fast-changing industry, but also because of its stock's premium valuation. Nvidia could keep executing at full speed and still deliver only ordinary returns to investors from here. Or AI spending could prove more durable than skeptics expect, letting the company grow into and beyond today's price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，可能的结果范围很广——不仅因为在快速变化的行业中其业务的不可预测性，还因为其股票的高估值。英伟达可能会继续全速执行，但从这里开始仍然只能为投资者带来普通的回报。或者，AI 支出可能比怀疑者预期的更具韧性，让公司在今天的价格基础上继续增长。</p>
</div><p>Both outcomes are plausible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两种结果都是合理的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NjcvbnZpZGlhLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="The Nvidia logo outside of Nvidia headquarters." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876667%2Fnvidia-nvda-stock.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>The bull case: demand is still booming</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看涨案例：需求仍在激增</h2>
</div><p>Demand certainly isn't a problem. And this is great news for investors, because the entire bull case rests on it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求显然不是问题。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为整个看涨案例都依赖于此。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's most recent quarter showed no sign of a slowdown. In its fiscal first quarter of 2027 (the period ended April 26, 2026), revenue rose 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, and its AI-focused data center segment grew 92% to $75.2 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达最近一个季度没有显示出放缓的迹象。在其 2027 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日），收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，而其以 AI 为重点的数据中心部门增长 92%，达到 752 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, management guided for about $91 billion in revenue for fiscal Q2.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，管理层预计 2027 财年第二季度的收入约为 910 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The buildout of AI factories -- the largest infrastructure expansion in human history -- is accelerating at extraordinary speed,&#34; said Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang in the company's fiscal first-quarter earnings release.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋在公司 2027 财年第一季度的财报中表示：“AI 工厂的建设——人类历史上最大的基础设施扩张——正在以惊人的速度加速。”</p>
</div><p>The spending behind that demand is staggering. <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> are together on track to spend about $725 billion on capital projects in 2026 -- up about 77% from last year, with most of it pointed at AI infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支撑这一需求的支出令人震惊。<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>微软</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 预计将在 2026 年共同花费约 7250 亿美元用于资本项目——比去年增长约 77%，其中大部分指向 AI 基础设施。</p>
</div><p>Of course, not all of those dollars flow to Nvidia. But graphics processing units (GPUs) remain a central piece of the build-out, and Nvidia still supplies the large majority of them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，并不是所有这些资金都流向英伟达。但 图形处理单元（GPU） 仍然是建设的核心部分，而英伟达仍然提供大多数 GPU。</p>
</div><p>A fresh product cycle is coming, too. Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform is due from partners in the second half of 2026. If this build-out turns out to be a multiyear shift rather than a one-time surge, Nvidia can keep growing well into 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个新的产品周期也即将到来。英伟达下一代 Vera Rubin 平台预计将在 2026 年下半年由合作伙伴推出。如果这次建设被证明是一个多年的转变，而不是一次性的激增，英伟达可以在 2030 年之前继续增长。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-1.42%) $-2.77</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.42%) $-2.77</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$192.97</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$192.97</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.7 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$191.22 - $195.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$191.22 - $195.54</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$151.49 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$151.49 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>4.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>480 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>161.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.616 亿</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.14%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.14%</p>
</div><h2>The bear case: a peak, and rising competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看跌案例：峰值与竞争加剧</h2>
</div><p>But here is where the bears have a point worth taking seriously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在这里，空头有一个值得认真对待的观点。</p>
</div><p>That $725 billion is increasingly funded with debt (and, in some cases, equity, which dilutes shareholders), and free cash flow is under pressure and, for some of these customers, may even turn negative as they spend. So, spending at this pace may not keep accelerating, and when it slows, Nvidia's growth would likely slow with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那 7250 亿美元的支出越来越多地依赖于债务（在某些情况下是股权，这稀释了股东），自由现金流受到压力，对于一些客户来说，支出甚至可能变为负数。因此，以这种速度进行的支出可能不会持续加速，当支出放缓时，英伟达的增长也可能随之放缓。</p>
</div><p>The chip business has always moved in cycles, and there's little reason to think this one won't.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>芯片业务一直是周期性的，没有理由认为这次不会如此。</p>
</div><p>Competition is the other pressure point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争是另一个压力点。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's biggest customers are also its emerging rivals. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are all designing in-house chips to cut their dependence on Nvidia and lower the cost of AI computing -- and Amazon- and Google-built silicon already powers large workloads at AI developers like Anthropic. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> is pushing its own accelerators as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达最大的客户也是其新兴竞争对手。Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和 Meta 都在设计内部芯片，以减少对英伟达的依赖并降低 AI 计算 的成本——亚马逊和谷歌制造的硅芯片已经为像 Anthropic 这样的 AI 开发者提供了大量工作负载。<strong>超微半导体</strong> 也在推动自己的加速器。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Nvidia is still the dominant player. But over several years, credible alternatives could erode its pricing power -- and Nvidia's roughly 75% gross margin sits far above a typical chipmaker's. If that margin narrows while growth cools, Nvidia's financial results could disappoint on two fronts at once.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，英伟达仍然是主导者。但在几年内，可信的替代品可能会侵蚀其定价能力——而英伟达大约 75% 的毛利率远高于典型芯片制造商。如果该毛利率在增长放缓时缩小，英伟达的财务业绩可能会在两个方面同时令人失望。</p>
</div><p>The one thing working in the stock's favor is that the valuation has already come down. Nvidia trades at about 30 times earnings -- well below the 40-plus multiple it carried for much of the past two years. Clearly, there's some unease about when the cycle may peak already priced into the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一对股票有利的因素是估值已经下降。英伟达的市盈率约为 30 倍——远低于过去两年大部分时间的 40 倍以上的倍数。显然，市场对周期何时达到峰值已经有些不安，这一点已经反映在股价中。</p>
</div><p>So, where does that leave the stock in 2030?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，这将股票在 2030 年置于何处？</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is very likely to be a larger and more profitable business by then. But the range of outcomes for the stock is unusually wide. If the build-out keeps running and margins hold, the shares could compound at a high-single-digit to low-double-digit annual rate -- which from about $193 today would put them somewhere in the high-$200s to low-$300s by 2030. If AI spending peaks within a year or two and competition softens pricing, the stock could spend years going nowhere, even as revenue grows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达很可能到那时会成为一个更大、更有利可图的企业。但股票的结果范围异常广泛。如果建设持续进行且毛利率保持，股票可能以高单位数到低双位数的年增长率复合——从今天约 193 美元起，到 2030 年可能达到高 200 美元到低 300 美元。如果 AI 支出在一两年内达到峰值且竞争压低价格，股票可能会在收入增长的同时多年停滞不前。</p>
</div><p>Given the stock's more reasonable valuation multiple today and the extraordinary underlying business momentum, I'm personally leaning modestly toward the optimistic side of that range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到今天股票的估值倍数更为合理，以及基础业务的非凡动能，我个人倾向于在这个范围内稍微偏向乐观的一方。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 2030?

- Nvidia 的 AI 芯片需求强劲，首季营收同比增长 85%。  
- AI 基础设施建设预计迅速增长，未来可能影响市场格局。  
- 竞争加剧和债务增加可能抑制公司发展和利润空间。

英伟达的股票在 2030 年会达到什么水平？