<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC +2.59%）支付非常丰厚的月度股息。该房地产投资信托基金（REIT）的收益率超过 13.5%。这比 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 1.1% 收益率高出 10 倍以上。</p>
<p>该 抵押贷款 REIT 自 2020 年重新设定水平以来，一直维持其 月度股息。然而，在美联储最近暗示可能开始加息而不是降息之后，这可能会变得更加困难。以下是这种潜在逆风可能对其股息产生的影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>潜在的政策转变</h2>
<p>自 2024 年 9 月以来，美联储一直在缓慢降低联邦基金利率。到去年年底，该关键借贷利率已降低 175 个基点，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间。大多数美联储观察者预计，今年将继续降低利率，可能在年底前将利率接近 3%。</p>
<p>然而，由于伊朗战争的影响，美联储今年迄今为止保持不变，这给通胀带来了上行压力。上个月，核心通胀（美联储偏爱的衡量标准）达到了 3.4%，是自 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。因此，美联储从其政策声明中删除了表明未来降息倾向的关键措辞，同时暗示可能加息。</p>
<p>这种情绪的转变影响了机构 MBS 市场（AGNC Investment 的唯一关注点）。首席执行官彼得·费德里科在 第一季度电话会议 上表示，进入今年时，市场假设机构 MBS 供应约为 2500 亿美元，抵押贷款利率略低于 6%。然而，随着抵押贷款利率现在在 6.5% 左右，MBS 供应可能比今年减少 500 亿到 700 亿美元。新 MBS 的更高收益率对低收益率的旧 MBS 的价值施加了下行压力。如果美联储确实加息，抵押贷款利率可能会进一步上升，进一步压低 MBS 的价值。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="AGNC Investment Corp. 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
<p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$10.89</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$120 亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>110 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1490 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>100.00%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>13.56%</p>
<h2>仍然保持溢价</h2>
<p>今年 MBS 市场开局良好，因为特朗普政府专注于降低利率波动和改善住房可负担性。然而，随着伊朗战争的爆发，3 月份情绪转为负面，波动性增加。这影响了 AGNC 的 MBS 投资组合的价值，其有形账面价值下降了 5.6%，降至每股 8.38 美元。</p>
<p>然而，尽管其账面价值下降，该 REIT 的股价仍继续以高于账面价值的溢价交易，利用这一点在此期间发行了 4 亿美元的新股。它能够以约 16% 的杠杆回报率部署这些资本，使这些新投资相较于当时的 13.5% 股息收益率具有增值效应。由于其股价目前高于每股 10.50 美元，该 REIT 可以继续以高于其账面价值的溢价出售股票，以进行增值的新投资。</p>
<h2>高风险、高收益的股息股票</h2>
<p>利率变化影响 AGNC Investment 的 MBS 投资组合的价值。该 REIT 与大多数美联储观察者一样，预计今年利率会下降，从而增加低利率 MBS 的供应。然而，美联储最近暗示，可能会在战争驱动的通胀上升的情况下恢复加息。虽然这将对其投资组合的价值施加更多下行压力，但该 REIT 仍然可以以高于账面价值的溢价发行股票，以购买更高收益的 MBS，这可能使其能够继续维持股息。即便如此，这是一种高风险、高收益的收入来源，收入投资者可能无法在未来始终依赖。</p>

美国资本代理公司

AGNC Investment Corp存托优先股F

AGNC Investment-存托优先股E

AGNCM

AGNCN

<p>AGNC Investment 面临新的挑战，因为美联储暗示由于持续的通胀可能会加息，这与之前的降息预期相悖。这一变化给机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）价值带来了压力，影响了 AGNC 的投资组合。尽管如此，AGNC 通过以高于账面价值的溢价发行股票来资助增值投资，从而维持其高股息收益率，但变化的利率环境增加了收入投资者的风险</p>

<p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>( AGNC +2.59%) pays a very lucrative monthly dividend. The real estate investment trust (REIT) yields over 13.5%. That's more than 10 times higher than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s 1.1% yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AGNC Investment</strong>（AGNC +2.59%）支付非常丰厚的月度股息。该房地产投资信托基金（REIT）的收益率超过 13.5%。这比 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的 1.1% 收益率高出 10 倍以上。</p>
</div><p>The mortgage REIT has maintained its monthly dividend since resetting the level in 2020. However, that could be harder to do after the Federal Reserve recently hinted that it might start raising rates instead of lowering them. Here is how this potential headwind could impact its dividend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该 抵押贷款 REIT 自 2020 年重新设定水平以来，一直维持其 月度股息。然而，在美联储最近暗示可能开始加息而不是降息之后，这可能会变得更加困难。以下是这种潜在逆风可能对其股息产生的影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzU1NjYvYWduYy1pbnZlc3RtZW50LWNvcnAtbG9nby1vbi1zbWFydHBob25lLXdpdGgtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtYmFja2dyb3VuZC1hZ25jLmpwZWcmdz0zODQw" alt="AGNC Investment's logo on a mobile phone." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F875566%2Fagnc-investment-corp-logo-on-smartphone-with-stock-chart-background-agnc.jpeg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A potential policy shift</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>潜在的政策转变</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve has been slowly reducing the Federal Funds Rate since September 2024. It had lowered that key borrowing rate by 175 basis points by the end of last year to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Most Fed watchers anticipated that it would continue lowering rates this year, likely moving the rate closer to 3% by year's end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2024 年 9 月以来，美联储一直在缓慢降低联邦基金利率。到去年年底，该关键借贷利率已降低 175 个基点，降至 3.5% 至 3.75% 的区间。大多数美联储观察者预计，今年将继续降低利率，可能在年底前将利率接近 3%。</p>
</div><p>However, the Fed has stood pat so far this year amid the war in Iran, which has put upward pressure on inflation. Core inflation, the Fed's preferred measurement, reached 3.4% last month, its highest reading since October 2023. As a result, the Fed has removed key language from its policy statement that indicated a bias toward future rate cuts, while hinting at the possibility of hikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，由于伊朗战争的影响，美联储今年迄今为止保持不变，这给通胀带来了上行压力。上个月，核心通胀（美联储偏爱的衡量标准）达到了 3.4%，是自 2023 年 10 月以来的最高水平。因此，美联储从其政策声明中删除了表明未来降息倾向的关键措辞，同时暗示可能加息。</p>
</div><p>This sentiment shift has impacted the Agency MBS market (AGNC Investment's sole focus). CEO Peter Federico stated on the first-quarter conference call that, heading into the year, the market assumption was that there would be about $250 billion of Agency MBS supply, with mortgage rates just below 6%. However, with mortgage rates now in the 6.5% range, MBS supply could be $50 billion to $70 billion lower this year. The higher yields on new MBS put downward pressure on the value of legacy MBS with lower yields. If the Fed does raise rates, mortgage rates would likely rise more, further pressuring MBS values.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种情绪的转变影响了机构 MBS 市场（AGNC Investment 的唯一关注点）。首席执行官彼得·费德里科在 第一季度电话会议 上表示，进入今年时，市场假设机构 MBS 供应约为 2500 亿美元，抵押贷款利率略低于 6%。然而，随着抵押贷款利率现在在 6.5% 左右，MBS 供应可能比今年减少 500 亿到 700 亿美元。新 MBS 的更高收益率对低收益率的旧 MBS 的价值施加了下行压力。如果美联储确实加息，抵押贷款利率可能会进一步上升，进一步压低 MBS 的价值。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FHTkMucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="AGNC Investment Corp. Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAGNC.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AGNC</h2>
</div><p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AGNC Investment Corp.</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(2.59%) $0.28</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$10.89</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10.89</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$12B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$120 亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$10.59 - $10.90</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$9.08 - $12.19</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>110 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>14.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1490 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>100.00%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>100.00%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>13.56%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>13.56%</p>
</div><h2>Still commanding a premium</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍然保持溢价</h2>
</div><p>This year started positively for the MBS market as the Trump administration focused on reducing interest rate volatility and improving housing affordability. However, the war with Iran turned sentiment negative in March amid increased volatility. This impacted the value of AGNC's MBS portfolio, as its tangible book value declined by 5.6% to $8.38 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年 MBS 市场开局良好，因为特朗普政府专注于降低利率波动和改善住房可负担性。然而，随着伊朗战争的爆发，3 月份情绪转为负面，波动性增加。这影响了 AGNC 的 MBS 投资组合的价值，其有形账面价值下降了 5.6%，降至每股 8.38 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, while its book value declined, the REIT's stock price continued to trade at a premium to book, which it capitalized on by issuing $400 million in new shares during the period. It was able to deploy that capital at a levered return of around 16%, making these new investments accretive compared to its 13.5% dividend yield at the time. With its share price currently above $10.50 apiece, the REIT can continue to sell stock at a premium to its book value to make accretive new investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管其账面价值下降，该 REIT 的股价仍继续以高于账面价值的溢价交易，利用这一点在此期间发行了 4 亿美元的新股。它能够以约 16% 的杠杆回报率部署这些资本，使这些新投资相较于当时的 13.5% 股息收益率具有增值效应。由于其股价目前高于每股 10.50 美元，该 REIT 可以继续以高于其账面价值的溢价出售股票，以进行增值的新投资。</p>
</div><h2>A higher risk, high-yielding dividend stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高风险、高收益的股息股票</h2>
</div><p>Changes in interest rates impact the value of AGNC Investment's MBS portfolio. The REIT, like most Fed watchers, expected that rates would fall this year, increasing the supply of lower-rate MBS. However, the Fed recently hinted that it might resume rate hikes amid the war-driven inflationary uptick. While that would put more downward pressure on the value of its portfolio, the REIT can still issue stock at a premium to buy higher-yielding MBS, which could enable it to continue maintaining its dividend. Even still, it's a higher risk, high-yielding income stream that income investors might not always be able to bank on in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率变化影响 AGNC Investment 的 MBS 投资组合的价值。该 REIT 与大多数美联储观察者一样，预计今年利率会下降，从而增加低利率 MBS 的供应。然而，美联储最近暗示，可能会在战争驱动的通胀上升的情况下恢复加息。虽然这将对其投资组合的价值施加更多下行压力，但该 REIT 仍然可以以高于账面价值的溢价发行股票，以购买更高收益的 MBS，这可能使其能够继续维持股息。即便如此，这是一种高风险、高收益的收入来源，收入投资者可能无法在未来始终依赖。</p>
</div>

AGNC Investment's More Than 13.5% Yield Just Got a New Headwind From the Fed

- AGNC Investment 的月度股息超过 13.5%，远高于标普 500 的 1.1% 收益率。  
- 美联储可能加息对其股息持续性构成挑战，MBS 市场受到压力。  
- 尽管账面价值下降，AGNC 仍能以溢价发行股票进行新投资。

AGNC Investment 超过 13.5% 的收益率刚刚面临来自美联储的新阻力