<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +1.38%）将在七月初公布其第二季度的汽车交付量——这将使人们的注意力从其更具雄心的项目，如机器人出租车和类人机器人，转移开来。生产和交付更新中最重要的数字可能是交付量的同比增长率。</p>
<p>这一更新时机恰到好处，因为交付量是衡量特斯拉汽车需求是否在经历 2025 年艰难时期后恢复的最直接指标——而本季度是检验这种恢复是否具有持续性的首次重要测试。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，特斯拉 交付了 1,636,129 辆汽车，比 2024 年的近 180 万辆下降了 8.6%。2026 年第一季度恢复了增长，交付量同比增长 6.3%，达到 358,023 辆。但出现了一个复杂情况：特斯拉生产的汽车数量比交付的多出约 50,000 辆——这在供需之间造成了比平常更大的差距，可能让一些投资者感到担忧。</p>
<p>那么，特斯拉能否报告出足够强劲的同比增长率，以说服投资者相信公司的汽车业务正在经历可持续的复苏？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>特斯拉 Cybercab。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉需要跨越的门槛</h2>
<p>华尔街的共识预计第二季度交付量约为 406,000 辆。一些更为乐观的预测则更高，约为 420,000 辆。无论哪种情况，都将超过最重要的比较：特斯拉在 2025 年第二季度交付的 384,122 辆汽车。</p>
<p>回升至去年同期水平以上意味着特斯拉已经连续两个季度实现增长。</p>
<p>因此，这里有一个简单的框架来解读报告：406,000 辆或更高的数字可以说是表明有意义的复苏正在进行中。接近或超过 420,000 辆的数字则表明势头正在比预期更快地增长。但如果结果回落至去年的 384,122 辆，则支持空头观点，显示出第一季度的反弹是暂时的，需求仍未跟上特斯拉的生产。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$380.30</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.4 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>2.2 百万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>56.8 百万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<h2>数字决定的地方</h2>
<p>虽然特斯拉在季度生产和交付更新中并未细分地区交付量，但地区表现将是整体数字的关键。</p>
<p>据报道，欧洲最近已从一个薄弱环节转变为公司的增长来源；特斯拉在欧洲的新车注册在 5 月份同比增长超过一倍，较 2025 年的大幅下降形成了鲜明对比。特斯拉的第二大市场中国也表现良好，得益于更新后的 Model Y。</p>
<p>然而，拖累因素可能是美国。由于税收抵免在 2025 年第三季度末到期，美国的需求已经降温，注册量据报道今年迄今下降了中十几个百分点。因此，第二季度的数字可能归结为一个问题：欧洲和中国的强劲表现是否足以抵消国内的疲软？</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉交付量的同比增长率将是一个重要的观察指标，但显然投资者购买该股票的原因远不止于其汽车业务。毕竟，这也是唯一能解释其天文数字估值的原因。特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 345 倍——这一倍数只有在投资者为自动驾驶软件和机器人而非单纯的电动汽车买单时才有意义。</p>
<p>但汽车业务仍然占特斯拉大部分收入，因此交付量疲软将提醒人们公司距离实现其疯狂估值还有多远。</p>
<p>特斯拉的股票在 2026 年迄今下跌约 16%，交易价格远低于去年 12 月接近 490 美元的高点。因此可以肯定，投资者希望能有一些好消息。话虽如此，更重要的更新可能会在七月晚些时候到来，当时公司将公布完整的第二季度财报，其中将包括收入和现金流等财务数据，以及公司在重要的机器人出租车业务和类人机器人等长期目标上的进展。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

1 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉计划在七月初公布第二季度的汽车交付量，年同比增长率将是关键指标。华尔街预计交付量约为 406,000 辆，这将标志着连续两个季度的增长，并显示出从 2025 年下降中的复苏。欧洲和中国的强劲表现可能会抵消美国市场的疲软，因为税收抵免已到期。尽管投资者看重特斯拉的自动驾驶雄心，但强劲的汽车销售对于证明其高估值至关重要</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA +1.38%) is set to report its second-quarter vehicle deliveries in the first days of July -- something that will draw attention away from its more aspirational ventures like robotaxis and humanoid robots. The most important figure from the production and delivery update will likely be the year-over-year growth rate in deliveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA +1.38%）将在七月初公布其第二季度的汽车交付量——这将使人们的注意力从其更具雄心的项目，如机器人出租车和类人机器人，转移开来。生产和交付更新中最重要的数字可能是交付量的同比增长率。</p>
</div><p>The update will be timely, as deliveries are the most direct measure of whether demand for Tesla's cars is recovering after a difficult 2025 -- and this quarter is the first meaningful test of whether that recovery has staying power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一更新时机恰到好处，因为交付量是衡量特斯拉汽车需求是否在经历 2025 年艰难时期后恢复的最直接指标——而本季度是检验这种恢复是否具有持续性的首次重要测试。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles, down 8.6% from nearly 1.8 million in 2024. The first quarter of 2026 brought a return to growth, with deliveries rising 6.3% year over year to 358,023. But there was a complication: Tesla produced about 50,000 more vehicles than it delivered -- a larger-than-usual gap between supply and demand that likely worried some investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，特斯拉 交付了 1,636,129 辆汽车，比 2024 年的近 180 万辆下降了 8.6%。2026 年第一季度恢复了增长，交付量同比增长 6.3%，达到 358,023 辆。但出现了一个复杂情况：特斯拉生产的汽车数量比交付的多出约 50,000 辆——这在供需之间造成了比平常更大的差距，可能让一些投资者感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>So, can Tesla report a strong enough year-over-year growth rate to convince investors that a sustainable rebound in the company's automotive business is underway?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，特斯拉能否报告出足够强劲的同比增长率，以说服投资者相信公司的汽车业务正在经历可持续的复苏？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY2NzUvdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stdHNsYS5wbmcmdz0zODQw" alt="The interior of a Tesla Cybercab. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876675%2Ftesla-stock-tsla.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉 Cybercab。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Here's the threshold Tesla needs to cross</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉需要跨越的门槛</h2>
</div><p>Wall Street's consensus calls for about 406,000 deliveries in the second quarter. Some of the more bullish forecasts run higher, at about 420,000. Either would clear the comparison that matters most: the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的共识预计第二季度交付量约为 406,000 辆。一些更为乐观的预测则更高，约为 420,000 辆。无论哪种情况，都将超过最重要的比较：特斯拉在 2025 年第二季度交付的 384,122 辆汽车。</p>
</div><p>Climbing back above that year-ago level would mean Tesla has put together two straight quarters of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回升至去年同期水平以上意味着特斯拉已经连续两个季度实现增长。</p>
</div><p>So, here's a simple way to frame the report: A number around 406,000 or higher would arguably signal that a meaningful recovery is on track. A figure near or above 420,000 would suggest momentum is building faster than expected. But a result that slips back toward last year's 384,122 would support the bear case, showing that the first-quarter bounce was temporary and that demand still isn't keeping pace with Tesla's production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这里有一个简单的框架来解读报告：406,000 辆或更高的数字可以说是表明有意义的复苏正在进行中。接近或超过 420,000 辆的数字则表明势头正在比预期更快地增长。但如果结果回落至去年的 384,122 辆，则支持空头观点，显示出第一季度的反弹是暂时的，需求仍未跟上特斯拉的生产。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.38%) $5.18</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$380.30</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$380.30</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$368.60 - $387.81</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2.2 百万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>56.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>56.8 百万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><h2>Where the number gets decided</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数字决定的地方</h2>
</div><p>While Tesla doesn't break out regional deliveries in its quarterly production and deliveries update, regional performance will be key to the overall figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然特斯拉在季度生产和交付更新中并未细分地区交付量，但地区表现将是整体数字的关键。</p>
</div><p>Europe has reportedly recently turned from a weak spot into a source of growth for the company; Tesla's new-car registrations there more than doubled year over year in May, a sharp reversal from the steep declines that weighed on 2025. China, Tesla's second-largest market, has also reportedly held up well, helped by the refreshed Model Y.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据报道，欧洲最近已从一个薄弱环节转变为公司的增长来源；特斯拉在欧洲的新车注册在 5 月份同比增长超过一倍，较 2025 年的大幅下降形成了鲜明对比。特斯拉的第二大市场中国也表现良好，得益于更新后的 Model Y。</p>
</div><p>The drag, however, may be the United States. With the tax credit having expired at the end of the third quarter of 2025, U.S. demand has cooled, and registrations there have reportedly tracked down by the mid-teens so far this year. So the second-quarter number probably comes down to one question: Is the strength in Europe and China enough to more than offset any domestic softness?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，拖累因素可能是美国。由于税收抵免在 2025 年第三季度末到期，美国的需求已经降温，注册量据报道今年迄今下降了中十几个百分点。因此，第二季度的数字可能归结为一个问题：欧洲和中国的强劲表现是否足以抵消国内的疲软？</p>
</div><p>Still, even though the reported year-over-year growth rate for Tesla's deliveries will be an important figure to watch, it's clear that investors buy the stock for far more than its automotive business. After all, that's the only thing that could explain its astronomical valuation. Tesla stock trades at about 345 times earnings -- a multiple that only makes sense if investors are paying for self-driving software and robots rather than for simply electric cars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉交付量的同比增长率将是一个重要的观察指标，但显然投资者购买该股票的原因远不止于其汽车业务。毕竟，这也是唯一能解释其天文数字估值的原因。特斯拉股票的市盈率约为 345 倍——这一倍数只有在投资者为自动驾驶软件和机器人而非单纯的电动汽车买单时才有意义。</p>
</div><p>But the car business still generates the majority of Tesla's revenue, so a soft delivery number would be a reminder of how far the company is from growing into its wild valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但汽车业务仍然占特斯拉大部分收入，因此交付量疲软将提醒人们公司距离实现其疯狂估值还有多远。</p>
</div><p>Tesla shares are down about 16% so far in 2026, trading well below their December high near $490. So you can bet investors are hoping for some good news. With that said, the more important update will probably come later in July, when the company reports its full second-quarter results, which will include financials like revenue and cash flow, as well as the company's progress on its important Robotaxi operation and its longer-term ambitions, such as humanoid robots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票在 2026 年迄今下跌约 16%，交易价格远低于去年 12 月接近 490 美元的高点。因此可以肯定，投资者希望能有一些好消息。话虽如此，更重要的更新可能会在七月晚些时候到来，当时公司将公布完整的第二季度财报，其中将包括收入和现金流等财务数据，以及公司在重要的机器人出租车业务和类人机器人等长期目标上的进展。</p>
</div>

Tesla Reports Q2 Deliveries in a Matter of Days. Here's the Number That Matters.

- 特斯拉预计将在 7 月初公布第二季度交付数据，关注年增长率。  
- 2025 年交付同比下降 8.6%，2026 年第一季度回升 6.3%。  
- 预测第二季度交付量为 406,000 至 420,000 辆，需关注国内外市场表现。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

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2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - T-Rex

南方两倍做多特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

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TSLA 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

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TSLA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

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XI二南特斯-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

特斯拉将在几天内公布第二季度的交付数据。以下是关键数字