<p>在备受期待的 7 月 4 日假期前的就业报告中，美国经济在 6 月份新增了季节性调整后的 57,000 个就业岗位，约为经济学家预期的一半。</p>
<p>失业率降至 4.2%，平均时薪较上月上升 0.3%，符合预期。</p>
<p>截至下午 12:44，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约 347 点，而标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数则略微下跌。</p>
<p>这份报告有些喜忧参半。一方面，它偏离了表明劳动力市场已经复苏的叙述。</p>
<p>另一方面，疲软的数据也给美联储在利率轨迹上提供了更多灵活性。</p>
<p>以下是投资者需要关注的要点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="3840" height="2560" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>坏消息</h2>
<p>在负面方面，经济在经历了连续三份显示稳健增长的就业报告后，出现了这样的情况。</p>
<p>投资者一直担心劳动力市场，因此一系列积极的报告表明经济可能处于更好的状态。</p>
<p>不仅 6 月份新增的就业岗位远低于预期，而且 5 月份的就业预测也下调至 129,000，表明情况并没有一些人希望的那么乐观。</p>
<p>此外，尽管失业率降至 4.2%，但主要原因是劳动力参与率下降，降幅为 0.3%，降至 61.5%，为 2021 年 3 月以来的最低水平。</p>
<p>这意味着工作或积极寻找工作的人数减少，因此这并不一定是个好兆头。</p>
<h2>好消息</h2>
<p>由于高通胀，主要是由于伊朗战争推动，经济正走向一个看起来美联储可能别无选择只能再次加息的境地。</p>
<p>这也使得经济处于一个坏消息再次变成好消息的局面。</p>
<p>疲软的劳动力市场可能表明通胀将放缓，因为需求通常由健康的劳动力市场驱动，人们有可支配收入可供消费。</p>
<p>此外，这份报告为美联储提供了更多的利率灵活性，特别是继续保持利率稳定的能力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的美国非农就业人数月度数据</p>
<p>“对于美联储来说，这个数字是可以接受的，”<strong>Jefferies</strong> 高级经济学家 Thomas Simons 在一份研究报告中写道，引用自 CNBC。“就业增长的速度足够强劲，可以维持稳定的失业率，平均时薪也很稳健，但没有加速。他们没有必要立即对利率采取任何行动，而就业增长速度的放缓表明，今年很可能不需要加息。”</p>
<p>昨天，市场对美联储在 9 月会议上保持利率不变的可能性估计约为 36%。截至目前，美联储在 9 月保持利率不变的可能性已上升至 46% 以上。</p>
<p>较高的利率通常对股票不太利好。最终，这对美联储来说是个好消息，他们可能希望尽量避免加息。</p>
<p>然而，我认为这份报告的影响并不大。主要指数无疑受到其他因素的影响，而今天的整体交易量可能较弱。</p>
<p>通胀仍然是一个问题，而劳动力市场依然是个谜。</p>

道琼斯指数

道琼斯指数 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做多道指 30 ETF - ProShares

做空道指 ETF - ProShares

3 倍做空道指 30 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空道琼斯 30 指数 ETF - ProShares

<p>美国在六月仅新增了 57,000 个就业岗位，只有预期的一半，而失业率因劳动参与率下降降至 4.2%。这一疲软的数据减轻了美联储加息的压力，增加了市场对九月份利率保持稳定的预期。因此，道琼斯指数小幅上涨，但主要指数仍然表现不一，因为投资者在持续的通胀与放缓的劳动市场之间进行权衡</p>

<p>In a highly anticipated jobs report ahead of the July 4th holiday weekend, the U.S. economy added a seasonally adjusted 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half of what economists expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在备受期待的 7 月 4 日假期前的就业报告中，美国经济在 6 月份新增了季节性调整后的 57,000 个就业岗位，约为经济学家预期的一半。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from the prior month, in line with estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率降至 4.2%，平均时薪较上月上升 0.3%，符合预期。</p>
</div><p>As of 12:44 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded roughly 347 points higher, while both the S&amp;P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite were slightly in the red.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至下午 12:44，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约 347 点，而标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数则略微下跌。</p>
</div><p>The report is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, it strays from the narrative suggesting the labor market has rebounded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这份报告有些喜忧参半。一方面，它偏离了表明劳动力市场已经复苏的叙述。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the soft data also gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility regarding the trajectory of interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，疲软的数据也给美联储在利率轨迹上提供了更多灵活性。</p>
</div><p>Here’s the takeaway for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是投资者需要关注的要点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2Nkbi5jb250ZW50LmZvb2xjZG4uY29tL2ltYWdlcy8xdW1uOXFlaC9wcm9kdWN0aW9uL2VkMTEwZGY1ZDA2NGYwZjE1OWZiOTI3YzVlNjBmOWJiN2EyYWE2YjktNjcyMHg0NDgwLmpwZz93PTY3MjAmaD00NDgwJnE9NzUmYXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmdz0zODQw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.content.foolcdn.com%2Fimages%2F1umn9qeh%2Fproduction%2Fed110df5d064f0f159fb927c5e60f9bb7a2aa6b9-6720x4480.jpg%3Fw%3D6720%26h%3D4480%26q%3D75%26auto%3Dformat&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The bad news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>坏消息</h2>
</div><p>On the negative side of the spectrum, the economy had been coming off three consecutive jobs reports showing solid gains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在负面方面，经济在经历了连续三份显示稳健增长的就业报告后，出现了这样的情况。</p>
</div><p>Investors had been worried about the labor market, so the string of positive reports suggested that the economy may be on better footing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者一直担心劳动力市场，因此一系列积极的报告表明经济可能处于更好的状态。</p>
</div><p>Not only did the economy add far fewer jobs in June than expected, but the May jobs forecast got revised down to 129,000, indicating the picture hadn’t been as rosy as some had hoped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不仅 6 月份新增的就业岗位远低于预期，而且 5 月份的就业预测也下调至 129,000，表明情况并没有一些人希望的那么乐观。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the main driver was a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell by 0.3% to 61.5%, the lowest level since March 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，尽管失业率降至 4.2%，但主要原因是劳动力参与率下降，降幅为 0.3%，降至 61.5%，为 2021 年 3 月以来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>This means the number of people working or actively seeking work declined, so it isn’t necessarily a good sign.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着工作或积极寻找工作的人数减少，因此这并不一定是个好兆头。</p>
</div><h2>The good news</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好消息</h2>
</div><p>Due to high inflation, largely driven by the Iran war, the economy was getting to a point where it looked like the Fed may have no choice but to hike interest rates again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于高通胀，主要是由于伊朗战争推动，经济正走向一个看起来美联储可能别无选择只能再次加息的境地。</p>
</div><p>This also put the economy in a position where bad news once again became good news.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也使得经济处于一个坏消息再次变成好消息的局面。</p>
</div><p>A weaker labor market can suggest inflation will slow because demand is often driven by a healthy labor market, where people have disposable income to spend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲软的劳动力市场可能表明通胀将放缓，因为需求通常由健康的劳动力市场驱动，人们有可支配收入可供消费。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, this report gives the Fed added flexibility with interest rates, specifically the ability to continue holding them steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，这份报告为美联储提供了更多的利率灵活性，特别是继续保持利率稳定的能力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe4022191ff971d3ea8ea9dd48d7dc49.png"/></p>
<p>US Nonfarm Payrolls MoM data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的美国非农就业人数月度数据</p>
</div><p>“For the Fed, this number is fine,” <strong>Jefferies</strong> Senior Economist Thomas Simons wrote in a research note, according to CNBC. “The pace of job growth is plenty strong enough to maintain a steady unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are solid, but not accelerating. There is no imperative on their part to do anything with rates immediately, and the softening in the pace of job growth suggests that rate hikes are very unlikely to be necessary this year.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“对于美联储来说，这个数字是可以接受的，”<strong>Jefferies</strong> 高级经济学家 Thomas Simons 在一份研究报告中写道，引用自 CNBC。“就业增长的速度足够强劲，可以维持稳定的失业率，平均时薪也很稳健，但没有加速。他们没有必要立即对利率采取任何行动，而就业增长速度的放缓表明，今年很可能不需要加息。”</p>
</div><p>Yesterday, the market placed a roughly 36% chance on the Fed keeping rates steady at its September meeting. As of this writing, the likelihood of the Fed holding rates steady in September increased to over 46%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天，市场对美联储在 9 月会议上保持利率不变的可能性估计约为 36%。截至目前，美联储在 9 月保持利率不变的可能性已上升至 46% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Higher interest rates tend not to be as bullish for stocks. Ultimately, this is good news for the Fed, which likely wanted to avoid rate hikes if possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>较高的利率通常对股票不太利好。最终，这对美联储来说是个好消息，他们可能希望尽量避免加息。</p>
</div><p>However, I don’t see this as an overly impactful report. The major indexes are most certainly being impacted by other factors on a day likely characterized by weak overall trading volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我认为这份报告的影响并不大。主要指数无疑受到其他因素的影响，而今天的整体交易量可能较弱。</p>
</div><p>Inflation is still an issue, while the labor market remains a mystery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀仍然是一个问题，而劳动力市场依然是个谜。</p>
</div>

The U.S. Economy Added an Underwhelming 57,000 Jobs in June. Here's the Takeaway for Investors.

- 美国经济在 6 月新增 57,000 个就业岗位，低于预期。  
- 失业率降至 4.2%，但劳动参与率下降至 61.5%。  
- 报告给美联储在利率政策上提供了更多灵活性。

美国经济在六月仅新增了 57,000 个工作岗位，这一数字令人失望。以下是投资者需要关注的要点