<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）刚刚发布了历史上最强劲的第二季度交付量，股东们的反应是单日股价下跌约 7.5%——这是近一年来的最糟糕表现。周四，这家 电动车制造商 表示，第二季度交付了 480,126 辆汽车，同比增长 25%，比分析师预测的约 406,000 辆多出约 74,000 辆。</p>
<p>从任何正常的角度来看，这都是一个巨大的成功。那么，为什么股价会如此大幅下跌呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>特斯拉网络出租车。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>市场对此创纪录的季度反应冷淡</h2>
<p>特斯拉的交付量不仅是与去年相比的跃升。它比特斯拉在第一季度交付的 358,023 辆汽车增长了 34%。</p>
<p>简而言之，交付量从一年前的下降转变为第二季度的创纪录——正是牛市所期待的转变。</p>
<p>那么，原因是什么呢？</p>
<p>部分原因是投资者早已预见到这一点。在报告发布前的几周，特斯拉的股价上涨了约 12%，因此当数据公布时，许多好消息已经被市场消化。这样的 “卖消息” 反应在股票在催化剂前上涨时很常见。</p>
<p>但市场持谨慎态度的更深层原因与特斯拉交付了多少辆汽车关系不大。</p>
<h2>市场实际上在定价什么</h2>
<p>投资者可能担心几个潜在问题。</p>
<p>首先，仍然存在一个悬而未决的问题，即这些销售中有多少是由于油价短期上涨所驱动，因为一些消费者可能寻求通过转向电动车来节省交通成本。</p>
<p>然后还有迹象表明，交付量的增加是以牺牲为代价的。生产的 451,758 辆汽车比交付量低了约 28,000 辆，这意味着特斯拉是通过减少现有库存来达到这一数字，而不是增加生产。这引发了一个合理的问题，即本季度有多少是由于季度末的激励措施驱动的。</p>
<p>最后，一些投资者可能担心公司推出更具竞争力定价车型的举措可能会损害利润。在第一季度，特斯拉的整体毛利率为 21.1%，不包括监管信用的汽车毛利率接近 19%。如果第二季度的创纪录交付量是由更具竞争力定价的车型驱动的，那么这些数字可能会进一步下滑。对于一只以这种方式定价的股票来说，这可能比交付量更为重要。</p>
<p>这种担忧是有先例的。特斯拉在过去两年中花费了大量时间降价以保持工厂满负荷运转，而每次降价都会削弱每辆车的利润。汽车毛利率已经远低于其峰值。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<p>特斯拉</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$394.04</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.5 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>3.8 百万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>55.5 百万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>19.07%</p>
<p>而且这只股票的定价非常激进。特斯拉的市盈率约为 360 倍，像是一家将未来押注于自动驾驶和软件的公司（当然，它确实在这样做），而不是在本季度销售更多汽车。因此，这样的估值依赖于利润的飙升，因此市场希望证明交付量是盈利的，而不是总是依赖于更具投机性和长期的商业计划。</p>
<p>当然，创纪录的季度显示出需求比熊市预期的要健康。但这里的牛市论点并不真正关乎特斯拉今年卖出了多少辆汽车。相反，它依赖于将 自动驾驶软件 和初步的机器人出租车车队转变为高利润、经常性收入。</p>
<p>我们真正需要的数字和管理层的评论将于 7 月 22 日到来，届时特斯拉将公布完整的第二季度财务结果。</p>
<p>就个人而言，我不会将周四的下跌视为对本季度的裁决——这更像是市场推迟判断，股价在大幅上涨后进行喘息。报告需要显示特斯拉在不牺牲利润的情况下交付了 480,000 辆汽车。而且，更重要的是，特斯拉需要再次向投资者保证其高利润项目正在取得进展。</p>

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

<p>特斯拉报告了创纪录的第二季度交付量，达到 480,126 辆，超出预期 74,000 辆。尽管表现强劲，TSLA 股票仍下跌 7.5%，创下近一年来的最大单日跌幅。此次下跌反映了投资者的担忧，即这一交付量是由短期因素驱动的，如油价和库存减少，而非有机需求，这可能会影响利润率。此外，许多积极消息已经被市场消化。投资者现在正等待 7 月 22 日的完整财务结果，以评估盈利能力和高利润项目的进展</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 7.35%) just posted its strongest second-quarter deliveries in its history, and shareholders responded by knocking about 7.5% off the stock in a single session -- its worst day in nearly a year. On Thursday, the electric-car maker said it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up 25% year over year, about 74,000 more than the 406,000 or so analysts had modeled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）刚刚发布了历史上最强劲的第二季度交付量，股东们的反应是单日股价下跌约 7.5%——这是近一年来的最糟糕表现。周四，这家 电动车制造商 表示，第二季度交付了 480,126 辆汽车，同比增长 25%，比分析师预测的约 406,000 辆多出约 74,000 辆。</p>
</div><p>By any normal reading, that is a blowout. So why did the stock fall so hard?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从任何正常的角度来看，这都是一个巨大的成功。那么，为什么股价会如此大幅下跌呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXkucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="The Tesla Cybercab." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877448%2Fis-tesla-stock-a-buy.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Tesla Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉网络出租车。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>A record quarter the market shrugged off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场对此创纪录的季度反应冷淡</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's deliveries were not just a jump from a year earlier. They marked a 34% leap from the 358,023 vehicles Tesla delivered in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的交付量不仅是与去年相比的跃升。它比特斯拉在第一季度交付的 358,023 辆汽车增长了 34%。</p>
</div><p>In short, deliveries have swung from declining a year ago to a second-quarter record -- exactly the kind of turn the bulls have been waiting for.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简而言之，交付量从一年前的下降转变为第二季度的创纪录——正是牛市所期待的转变。</p>
</div><p>So what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，原因是什么呢？</p>
</div><p>Part of the answer is that investors saw it coming. Tesla shares had climbed about 12% in the weeks before the report, so by the time the figure landed, much of the good news was already priced in. A sell-the-news reaction like this is common when a stock runs up into a catalyst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>部分原因是投资者早已预见到这一点。在报告发布前的几周，特斯拉的股价上涨了约 12%，因此当数据公布时，许多好消息已经被市场消化。这样的 “卖消息” 反应在股票在催化剂前上涨时很常见。</p>
</div><p>But there is a deeper reason the market held back, and it has little to do with how many cars Tesla delivered.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但市场持谨慎态度的更深层原因与特斯拉交付了多少辆汽车关系不大。</p>
</div><h2>What the market is actually pricing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场实际上在定价什么</h2>
</div><p>There are a few underlying problems that investors may be concerned about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能担心几个潜在问题。</p>
</div><p>First and foremost, there's a lingering question about how many of these sales were driven by a short-term spike in gas prices, as some consumers likely sought ways to save on transportation costs by switching to electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，仍然存在一个悬而未决的问题，即这些销售中有多少是由于油价短期上涨所驱动，因为一些消费者可能寻求通过转向电动车来节省交通成本。</p>
</div><p>Then there are hints that the volume came at a cost. Production of 451,758 vehicles ran about 28,000 units below deliveries, meaning Tesla drew down existing inventory to hit the headline number rather than building stock. That raises a fair question about how much of the quarter was driven by end-of-quarter incentives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后还有迹象表明，交付量的增加是以牺牲为代价的。生产的 451,758 辆汽车比交付量低了约 28,000 辆，这意味着特斯拉是通过减少现有库存来达到这一数字，而不是增加生产。这引发了一个合理的问题，即本季度有多少是由于季度末的激励措施驱动的。</p>
</div><p>Finally, some investors may worry that the company's push to introduce more aggressively priced models could be hurting margins. In the first quarter, Tesla's overall gross margin was 21.1%, with automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits closer to 19%. If the second quarter's record volume was driven by more aggressively priced vehicles, those figures could slip even further. And for a stock priced the way this one is, that may matter more than the delivery count.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，一些投资者可能担心公司推出更具竞争力定价车型的举措可能会损害利润。在第一季度，特斯拉的整体毛利率为 21.1%，不包括监管信用的汽车毛利率接近 19%。如果第二季度的创纪录交付量是由更具竞争力定价的车型驱动的，那么这些数字可能会进一步下滑。对于一只以这种方式定价的股票来说，这可能比交付量更为重要。</p>
</div><p>There is precedent for the worry. Tesla spent much of the past two years cutting prices to keep its factories full, and each cut chipped away at the profit on every car sold. Automotive gross margin has already fallen well off its peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种担忧是有先例的。特斯拉在过去两年中花费了大量时间降价以保持工厂满负荷运转，而每次降价都会削弱每辆车的利润。汽车毛利率已经远低于其峰值。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-7.35%) $-31.26</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$394.04</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$394.04</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.5T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.5 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$389.31 - $432.35</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$288.77 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>3.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3.8 百万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>55.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>55.5 百万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>19.07%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>19.07%</p>
</div><p>And the stock is priced aggressively. At about 360 times earnings, Tesla trades like a company betting its future on autonomy and software (of course, it ultimately is doing this), not on selling more cars this quarter. A valuation like that, therefore, relies on soaring profits, so the market wants proof that the volume was profitable rather than always leaning on more speculative, longer-term business initiatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且这只股票的定价非常激进。特斯拉的市盈率约为 360 倍，像是一家将未来押注于自动驾驶和软件的公司（当然，它确实在这样做），而不是在本季度销售更多汽车。因此，这样的估值依赖于利润的飙升，因此市场希望证明交付量是盈利的，而不是总是依赖于更具投机性和长期的商业计划。</p>
</div><p>Of course, a record quarter shows demand is healthier than the bears feared. But the bull case here isn't really about how many cars Tesla sells this year. Instead, it rests on turning self-driving software and a nascent robotaxi fleet into high-margin, recurring revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，创纪录的季度显示出需求比熊市预期的要健康。但这里的牛市论点并不真正关乎特斯拉今年卖出了多少辆汽车。相反，它依赖于将 自动驾驶软件 和初步的机器人出租车车队转变为高利润、经常性收入。</p>
</div><p>The figures and management commentary we really need will arrive on July 22, when Tesla reports full second-quarter financial results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们真正需要的数字和管理层的评论将于 7 月 22 日到来，届时特斯拉将公布完整的第二季度财务结果。</p>
</div><p>Personally, I wouldn't read Thursday's drop as a verdict on the quarter -- it looks more like the market deferring judgment and the stock taking a breather after a big run-up. The report needs to show that Tesla moved 480,000 cars without sacrificing margin. And, even more, Tesla will need to once again reassure investors that its higher-margin initiatives are making progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就个人而言，我不会将周四的下跌视为对本季度的裁决——这更像是市场推迟判断，股价在大幅上涨后进行喘息。报告需要显示特斯拉在不牺牲利润的情况下交付了 480,000 辆汽车。而且，更重要的是，特斯拉需要再次向投资者保证其高利润项目正在取得进展。</p>
</div>

Tesla Beat Delivery Estimates by 74,000 Vehicles -- and the Stock Had Its Worst Day in Nearly a Year. Here's Why.

- 特斯拉第二季度交付 480,126 辆，创历史新高，同比增长 25%。  
- 尽管交付量增加，股价却下跌约 7.5%，市场对此反应冷淡。  
- 投资者担心销量增长可能损害利润，并期待后续财报确认盈利能力。

Motley Fool

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - T-Rex

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

Yieldmax Tsla Option Income ETF

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多特斯拉

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

Proshares Ultra TSLA

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd TSLAMnETF

1 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

TSLA 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

TSLA 期权收益策略 ETF - GraniteShares

xETFs TSLA Daily Income ETF

TSLA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Tesla TSLA ETF

XI二南特斯-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

特斯拉交付量超出预期 74,000 辆，但其股价却经历了近一年来最糟糕的一天。这是原因