<p><strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN +8.44%）刚刚给投资者带来了令人印象深刻的更新。周四，这家 电动车 制造商表示，在第二季度交付了 12,194 辆汽车，远超其自身预期的 9,000 到 11,000 辆，并将全年交付目标上调至 65,000 到 70,000 辆，之前的目标为 62,000 到 67,000 辆。</p>
<p>消息发布后，股价上涨超过 8%。而这一时机更是突显了对比：<strong>特斯拉</strong> 在同一天的交付报告后股价下跌约 7.5%。</p>
<p>Rivian 的股价现在已从 52 周低点上涨约 60%，尽管仍略低于年初的水平。那么，这个黑马是否终于在更多投资组合中占有一席之地，还是市场对其保持怀疑态度是正确的？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzUvcml2bi5wbmcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzUvcml2bi5wbmcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<h2>上调实际上意味着什么</h2>
<p>第二季度的更新开始回答一个困扰 Rivian 一整年的问题：公司能否在生产和销售其新款低价 R2 的同时，继续生产其他所有车型？还是会侵蚀公司其他车型的销售，最终伤害其业务？</p>
<p>R2 比 Rivian 制造的任何其他车型都更为重要。公司的 R1 卡车和 SUV 是高端定价的车型，自然受众有限。R2 是 Rivian 争取销量的尝试，而在 ramp 的第一季度就上调预期表明早期需求存在。</p>
<p>但看起来这款车型将对其业务产生积极影响。Rivian 在第一季度交付了 10,365 辆汽车，第二季度交付了 12,194 辆，总计 22,559 辆。这意味着，即使是新的全年目标的低端，也需要在下半年交付约 42,000 辆——几乎是上半年速度的两倍。这一波下半年交付的激增将是 Rivian 历史上最陡峭的增长，且是在公司同时扩展全新车型的六个月内完成的。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1JJVk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Rivian 汽车股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1JJVk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: RIVN</h2>
<p>Rivian Automotive</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(8.44%) $1.45</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$18.63</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$230 亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$17.81 - $19.79</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$11.57 - $22.69</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>7830 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>3050 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>-441.39%</p>
<h2>经济状况仍需追赶</h2>
<p>股票的表现是否良好，可能更依赖于每次交付的收益，而不是交付数量。而这一情况仍然复杂。</p>
<p>在第一季度，Rivian 的 收入 同比增长 11%，达到 13.8 亿美元，公司产生了 1.19 亿美元的毛利润，毛利率为 9%。但组成部分讲述了更完整的故事。软件和服务部门产生了 1.81 亿美元的毛利润，而汽车部门则出现了 6200 万美元的毛亏损，主要受到汽车监管信用销售同比下降 1 亿美元和生产量降低的影响。简而言之，汽车本身仍在亏损，而软件和服务则保持了整体毛利为正。</p>
<p>与此同时，公司总亏损仍然很大。</p>
<p>Rivian 第一季度的运营亏损从去年同期的 6.55 亿美元扩大至 8.81 亿美元，原因是毛利润降低和运营费用增加，因为公司正在为 R2 时代做准备。</p>
<p>这一切对于 Rivian 这个阶段的公司来说并不构成障碍。规模正是 R2 所应带来的，而更高的产量可以将固定成本分摊到更多的车辆上。</p>
<p>乐观的观点是，下半年的增长推动汽车毛利润向正值靠拢，并将讨论从生存转向增长。当然，目前尚不清楚公司是否能做到这一点。</p>
<p>但最近的资本运作显著改善了增长的前景。在第一季度的更新中，Rivian 表示将其乔治亚州工厂的初始生产能力提高了 50%，达到每年 30 万辆，得到了高达 45 亿美元的能源部贷款支持。而在 3 月份完成的测试里程碑解锁了来自 <strong>大众集团</strong> 的 10 亿美元投资。这样的支持使得陡峭的增长风险大大降低。</p>
<p>然而，股票最近的上涨创造了一个新问题。该股票现在的 市值 约为 250 亿美元——而这对于一家每卖出一辆车仍在亏损的公司来说，显得不小。</p>
<p>那么，Rivian 终于值得购买了吗？交付更新无疑是公司多年中最令人鼓舞的消息，并显著降低了 R2 对整体业务不会产生实质性贡献的风险。但在购买之前，我希望看到一件具体的事情：随着 R2 产量的增加，汽车毛利润的改善。第二季度报告将于 7 月 30 日发布，这是第一个检查点。在此之前，Rivian 仍在我的观察名单上，作为比三个月前强得多的运营，但在这个价格仍然是一个需要证明的股票。</p>

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

特斯拉

RIVN

<p>Rivian 将其全年交付预期上调至 65,000-70,000 辆，因为第二季度交付量达到 12,194 辆，超出预期，导致股价上涨 8%。这与特斯拉最近的下滑形成对比。尽管 R2 型号显示出早期需求，但 Rivian 在汽车销售方面仍未盈利，且运营亏损严重。尽管获得了大众汽车和能源部贷款的资本支持，作者建议在看到汽车毛利率改善的证据之前，不要考虑买入该股票</p>

<p><strong>Rivian</strong>( RIVN +8.44%) just gave investors an impressive update. On Thursday, the electric vehicle maker said it delivered 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, comfortably above its own outlook of 9,000 to 11,000, and raised its full-year delivery target to 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles, up from 62,000 to 67,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Rivian</strong>（RIVN +8.44%）刚刚给投资者带来了令人印象深刻的更新。周四，这家 电动车 制造商表示，在第二季度交付了 12,194 辆汽车，远超其自身预期的 9,000 到 11,000 辆，并将全年交付目标上调至 65,000 到 70,000 辆，之前的目标为 62,000 到 67,000 辆。</p>
</div><p>The stock jumped more than 8% on the news. And the timing sharpened the contrast: <strong>Tesla</strong> fell about 7.5% the same day following its own delivery report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息发布后，股价上涨超过 8%。而这一时机更是突显了对比：<strong>特斯拉</strong> 在同一天的交付报告后股价下跌约 7.5%。</p>
</div><p>Rivian shares have now climbed about 60% from their 52-week low, though they still sit slightly below where they started the year. So, has the underdog finally earned a spot in more portfolios, or is the market right to stay skeptical?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 的股价现在已从 52 周低点上涨约 60%，尽管仍略低于年初的水平。那么，这个黑马是否终于在更多投资组合中占有一席之地，还是市场对其保持怀疑态度是正确的？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzUvcml2bi5wbmcmdz0zODQw" alt="The Rivian logo with Rivian vehicles in the background." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877475%2Frivn.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><h2>What the raise actually says</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>上调实际上意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>The second quarter update begins to answer a question that has hung over Rivian all year: Can the company build and sell its new, lower-priced R2 alongside everything else it makes? Or will it cannibalize the company's sales of other vehicles and ultimately hurt its business?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度的更新开始回答一个困扰 Rivian 一整年的问题：公司能否在生产和销售其新款低价 R2 的同时，继续生产其他所有车型？还是会侵蚀公司其他车型的销售，最终伤害其业务？</p>
</div><p>The R2 matters more than any other vehicle Rivian has made. The company's R1 trucks and SUVs are premium-priced machines with a naturally limited audience. The R2 is Rivian's bid for volume, and a raised outlook one quarter into its ramp suggests the early demand is there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>R2 比 Rivian 制造的任何其他车型都更为重要。公司的 R1 卡车和 SUV 是高端定价的车型，自然受众有限。R2 是 Rivian 争取销量的尝试，而在 ramp 的第一季度就上调预期表明早期需求存在。</p>
</div><p>But it looks like the vehicle will be additive to its business. Rivian delivered 10,365 vehicles in the first quarter and 12,194 in the second, for 22,559 in total. This means that reaching even the low end of the new full-year range requires about 42,000 deliveries in the second half -- nearly double the first-half pace. This spike in second-half deliveries would be Rivian's steepest ramp in history, executed in the same six months the company is scaling an entirely new model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但看起来这款车型将对其业务产生积极影响。Rivian 在第一季度交付了 10,365 辆汽车，第二季度交付了 12,194 辆，总计 22,559 辆。这意味着，即使是新的全年目标的低端，也需要在下半年交付约 42,000 辆——几乎是上半年速度的两倍。这一波下半年交付的激增将是 Rivian 历史上最陡峭的增长，且是在公司同时扩展全新车型的六个月内完成的。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1JJVk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Rivian Automotive Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FRIVN.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: RIVN</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: RIVN</h2>
</div><p>Rivian Automotive</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian Automotive</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(8.44%) $1.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(8.44%) $1.45</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$18.63</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.63</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$23B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$230 亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$17.81 - $19.79</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$17.81 - $19.79</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$11.57 - $22.69</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$11.57 - $22.69</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>78.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7830 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>30.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3050 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>-441.39%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-441.39%</p>
</div><h2>The economics still have to catch up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>经济状况仍需追赶</h2>
</div><p>Whether the stock works from here likely depends less on delivery counts than on what each delivery earns. And that picture is still mixed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票的表现是否良好，可能更依赖于每次交付的收益，而不是交付数量。而这一情况仍然复杂。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter, Rivian's revenue rose 11% year over year to $1.38 billion, and the company generated $119 million in gross profit, a 9% gross margin. But the composition tells a more complete story. The software and services segment produced $181 million in gross profit, while the automotive segment ran a $62 million gross loss, hurt primarily by a $100 million year-over-year decline in sales of automotive regulatory credits and lower production volumes. In short, the vehicles themselves still lose money, and software and services keep the overall margin positive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，Rivian 的 收入 同比增长 11%，达到 13.8 亿美元，公司产生了 1.19 亿美元的毛利润，毛利率为 9%。但组成部分讲述了更完整的故事。软件和服务部门产生了 1.81 亿美元的毛利润，而汽车部门则出现了 6200 万美元的毛亏损，主要受到汽车监管信用销售同比下降 1 亿美元和生产量降低的影响。简而言之，汽车本身仍在亏损，而软件和服务则保持了整体毛利为正。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, total company losses remain large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，公司总亏损仍然很大。</p>
</div><p>Rivian's first-quarter operating loss widened to $881 million from $655 million a year earlier, on lower gross profit and higher operating expenses as the company builds toward the R2 era.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 第一季度的运营亏损从去年同期的 6.55 亿美元扩大至 8.81 亿美元，原因是毛利润降低和运营费用增加，因为公司正在为 R2 时代做准备。</p>
</div><p>None of this is disqualifying for a company at Rivian's stage. Scale is precisely what the R2 is supposed to deliver, and higher volumes could spread fixed costs across far more vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切对于 Rivian 这个阶段的公司来说并不构成障碍。规模正是 R2 所应带来的，而更高的产量可以将固定成本分摊到更多的车辆上。</p>
</div><p>The bull case is that the second-half ramp pushes automotive gross profit toward positive territory and shifts the conversation from survival to growth. It's unclear, of course, if the company can pull this off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乐观的观点是，下半年的增长推动汽车毛利润向正值靠拢，并将讨论从生存转向增长。当然，目前尚不清楚公司是否能做到这一点。</p>
</div><p>But the capital runway for the ramp has notably improved recently. In its first-quarter update, Rivian said it raised the initial production capacity planned for its Georgia plant by 50%, to 300,000 vehicles annually, backed by an up to $4.5 billion Department of Energy loan. And a completed testing milestone in March unlocked a $1 billion investment from <strong>Volkswagen Group</strong>. A steep ramp is much less dangerous with that kind of backing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近的资本运作显著改善了增长的前景。在第一季度的更新中，Rivian 表示将其乔治亚州工厂的初始生产能力提高了 50%，达到每年 30 万辆，得到了高达 45 亿美元的能源部贷款支持。而在 3 月份完成的测试里程碑解锁了来自 <strong>大众集团</strong> 的 10 亿美元投资。这样的支持使得陡峭的增长风险大大降低。</p>
</div><p>The stock's recent run-up, however, has created a new problem. The stock now commands a market capitalization of about $25 billion -- and that's for a company that still loses money on every vehicle it sells.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，股票最近的上涨创造了一个新问题。该股票现在的 市值 约为 250 亿美元——而这对于一家每卖出一辆车仍在亏损的公司来说，显得不小。</p>
</div><p>So, is Rivian finally a buy? The delivery update was arguably the most encouraging news the company has produced in years, and it meaningfully lowers the risk that R2 won't be materially additive to its overall business. But I'd want to see one specific thing before buying: automotive gross profit improving as R2 volumes build. The second-quarter report, due July 30, is the first checkpoint. Until then, Rivian stays on my watch list as a far stronger operation than it was three months ago, but still a show-me stock at this price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，Rivian 终于值得购买了吗？交付更新无疑是公司多年中最令人鼓舞的消息，并显著降低了 R2 对整体业务不会产生实质性贡献的风险。但在购买之前，我希望看到一件具体的事情：随着 R2 产量的增加，汽车毛利润的改善。第二季度报告将于 7 月 30 日发布，这是第一个检查点。在此之前，Rivian 仍在我的观察名单上，作为比三个月前强得多的运营，但在这个价格仍然是一个需要证明的股票。</p>
</div>

Rivian Just Raised Its 2026 Outlook While Tesla Stock Stumbled. Is the Electric Vehicle Underdog Finally a Buy?

- Rivian 第二季度交付 12,194 辆汽车，超出预期，全年目标上调至 65,000-70,000 辆。  
- 特斯拉同日股价下跌约 7.5%，与 Rivian 的表现形成对比。  
- Rivian 尚需在下半年交付约 42,000 辆，以满足新目标，汽车业务仍有亏损。

Motley Fool

Rivian

Volkswagen AG Pref

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大众汽车(ADR)

南方两倍做多特斯拉

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Rivian 刚刚上调了其 2026 年的预期，而特斯拉的股价却出现下跌。这只电动车行业的黑马现在是否值得购买？