<p>这里有一句话是不可能的。<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%），全球最有价值的公司，现在的价格比 <strong>可口可乐</strong>（KO +3.51%）还要便宜——至少在投资者在为未来利润支付时最常依赖的衡量标准上。截至目前，英伟达的前瞻市盈率约为 22 倍，而可口可乐的前瞻市盈率约为 26 倍。</p>
<p>这两只股票的反转是从相反的方向到达的。可口可乐在周四以 84.14 美元收盘，创下历史新高，2026 年上涨约 20%。英伟达的股价在经历了几个月投资者对 人工智能（AI） 支出热潮能持续多久的猜测后，约低于其 52 周高点 18%。本周的差异更加明显：仅在周四，可口可乐上涨了 3.5%，创下新高，而英伟达则下滑。</p>
<p>那么，哪个价格是错误的？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3NzQ3MS9udmlkaWEtbnZkYS1zdG9jay5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3NzQ3MS9udmlkaWEtbnZkYS1zdG9jay5wbmcCNnc9Mzg0MAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
<h2>数学如何翻转</h2>
<p>前瞻市盈率 衡量股票价格与其未来 12 个月每股收益的共识预测的倍数。这是比较两种截然不同的业务的有用标准，因为它将两种业务置于其未来收益潜力的背景下。</p>
<p>在这个基础上，全球最大的公司变成了更便宜的股票。英伟达 的前瞻倍数已经降至低 20 倍，因为其收益预测超过了其股价。可口可乐的前瞻市盈率已攀升至中 20 倍，因为其股价超过了其稳定的收益增长。在过去的业绩上，两者更接近——英伟达约为 30 倍收益，可口可乐约为 26 倍——但前瞻差距才是关键，因为英伟达的利润仍在以惊人的速度复合增长。</p>
<p>增长显然无法解释这种反转。英伟达在其 2026 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日）的收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，数据中心收入增长 92%，达到 752 亿美元。管理层预计其 2026 财年第二季度（当前季度）的收入约为 910 亿美元。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvS08ucG5nAjZ3PTEyOAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="可口可乐股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvS08ucG5nAjZ3PTEyOAI2b3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: KO</h2>
<p>可口可乐</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(3.51%) $2.85</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$84.14</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$3620 亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$81.39 - $84.14</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$65.35 - $84.14</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1830 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1650 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>61.82%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>2.47%</p>
<p>可口可乐在其自身标准下过得不错。今年第一季度净收入增长 12%，达到 125 亿美元，且有机收入增长 10%——部分得益于日历上多出的六天——可比每股收益增长 18%。然而，公司对全年的展望预计有机收入增长为 4% 到 5%。</p>
<p>因此，一家刚刚实现 85% 收入增长的公司，其每美元预期利润的成本低于一家预计中个位数有机收入增长的公司。这就是反转。</p>
<h2>每个价格在说什么</h2>
<p>市场很少无缘无故地提供折扣，而英伟达承载着一种特定的恐惧：即人工智能基础设施支出是周期性的，今天的收益更接近于周期顶点或至少某种平台。如果大型云公司暂停消化他们购买的计算能力，或者如果芯片制造竞争加剧并侵蚀英伟达的定价能力，其收益增长可能会急剧放缓，甚至转为负增长。</p>
<p>可口可乐的估值溢价则是相反的故事。其收益在市场上是最可预测的，在投资者偏好 防御性分红支付者 的年份，预测性通常会比平常更高的价格。没有人会在创下历史新高的可口可乐上期待 85% 的增长。但他们期待没有惊喜。</p>
<p>换句话说，这两个价格都是合理的。但哪个投资更好？</p>
<p>为了让可口可乐证明中 20 倍的前瞻倍数，其中个位数的收入增长必须基本上无限期地持续下去。更重要的是，市场必须持续保持对安全性和耐用性的需求。否则，即使收入和收益增长保持相似的速度，投资者也可能会抛售该股票。历史表明，为安全支付溢价本身就有代价。当驱动投资者进入防御性股票的焦虑消退时，溢价也可能消失。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英伟达股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcCNnc9MTI4AjZvcD1yZXNpemU"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>英伟达</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-1.39%) $-2.75</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$194.84</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.7 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$192.36 - $200.03</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$157.34 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>560 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1.59 亿</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.14%</p>
<p>为了让英伟达证明低 20 倍的倍数，该公司的收入和收益增长在未来几年可能会急剧放缓，而股票仍可能符合其估值。同时，管理层对本季度约 910 亿美元收入的指引表明需求尚未减弱。但风险在于更远的未来：人工智能支出是否会在 2027 年及以后继续复合增长。</p>
<p>如果这两个价格中有一个是错误的，我认为是英伟达的。一个快速增长的主导公司很少会以低于成熟消费品的折扣交易，而这种折扣主要是因为投资者在为放缓做准备，即使公司的指引尚未显示出这一点。</p>
<p>当然，关于英伟达的悲观预期（即增长意外放缓）是值得尊重的。半导体行业一直是周期性的，这一繁荣最终会降温。但在这些价格下，这种风险可能已经完全反映在价格中了。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我不会卖掉可口可乐去买英伟达。这两者在投资组合中扮演着不同的角色。但对于今天在考虑这对组合的新资金来说，增长是打折的，而安全性则被抬高了。我会选择那个打折的。</p>

英伟达

可口可乐

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

<p>英伟达的前瞻市盈率已降至约 22 倍，低于可口可乐的约 26 倍。这一反转源于英伟达的股价在人工智能支出周期担忧中滞后于其巨大的盈利增长，而可口可乐的溢价则反映了投资者对防御性稳定性的需求，尽管其增长预测较为温和</p>

<p>Here is a sentence that shouldn't be possible. <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.39%), the most valuable company in the world, is now cheaper than <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>( KO +3.51%) -- at least by the measure investors lean on most when they're paying for future profits. As of this writing, Nvidia trades at about 22 times forward earnings. Coca-Cola trades at about 26 times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里有一句话是不可能的。<strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%），全球最有价值的公司，现在的价格比 <strong>可口可乐</strong>（KO +3.51%）还要便宜——至少在投资者在为未来利润支付时最常依赖的衡量标准上。截至目前，英伟达的前瞻市盈率约为 22 倍，而可口可乐的前瞻市盈率约为 26 倍。</p>
</div><p>The two stocks arrived at this inversion from opposite directions. Coca-Cola closed Thursday at $84.14, a record high, after rising about 20% in 2026. Nvidia sits roughly 18% below its 52-week high after months of investor second-guessing about how long the artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom can run. The divergence sharpened this week: on Thursday alone, Coca-Cola jumped 3.5% to its record while Nvidia slipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两只股票的反转是从相反的方向到达的。可口可乐在周四以 84.14 美元收盘，创下历史新高，2026 年上涨约 20%。英伟达的股价在经历了几个月投资者对 人工智能（AI） 支出热潮能持续多久的猜测后，约低于其 52 周高点 18%。本周的差异更加明显：仅在周四，可口可乐上涨了 3.5%，创下新高，而英伟达则下滑。</p>
</div><p>So which price is wrong?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，哪个价格是错误的？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzEvbnZpZGlhLW52ZGEtc3RvY2sucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="The Nvidia logo outside of Nvidia headquarters." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877471%2Fnvidia-nvda-stock.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：英伟达。</p>
</div><h2>How the math flipped</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>数学如何翻转</h2>
</div><p>The forward price-to-earnings ratio measures a stock's price as a multiple of the consensus forecast for its earnings per share over the next 12 months. It's a useful yardstick for comparing two very different businesses, because it puts the two businesses in the context of their future earnings potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前瞻市盈率 衡量股票价格与其未来 12 个月每股收益的共识预测的倍数。这是比较两种截然不同的业务的有用标准，因为它将两种业务置于其未来收益潜力的背景下。</p>
</div><p>On that basis, the world's biggest company has become the cheaper stock. Nvidia's forward multiple has drifted into the low 20s as its earnings forecasts have outpaced its share price. Coca-Cola's forward earnings multiple has climbed into the mid-20s as its share price has outrun its steady earnings growth. On trailing results the two are closer -- Nvidia at about 30 times earnings, Coca-Cola at about 26 -- but the forward gap is the telling one, because Nvidia's profits are still compounding at extraordinary rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这个基础上，全球最大的公司变成了更便宜的股票。英伟达 的前瞻倍数已经降至低 20 倍，因为其收益预测超过了其股价。可口可乐的前瞻市盈率已攀升至中 20 倍，因为其股价超过了其稳定的收益增长。在过去的业绩上，两者更接近——英伟达约为 30 倍收益，可口可乐约为 26 倍——但前瞻差距才是关键，因为英伟达的利润仍在以惊人的速度复合增长。</p>
</div><p>Growth certainly doesn't explain the inversion. Nvidia's revenue in its fiscal first quarter (ended April 26, 2026) rose 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, with data center revenue climbing 92% to $75.2 billion. And management guided for about $91 billion in revenue for its fiscal second quarter (the current quarter).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长显然无法解释这种反转。英伟达在其 2026 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日）的收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，数据中心收入增长 92%，达到 752 亿美元。管理层预计其 2026 财年第二季度（当前季度）的收入约为 910 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0tPLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Coca-Cola Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FKO.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: KO</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: KO</h2>
</div><p>Coca-Cola</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可口可乐</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(3.51%) $2.85</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(3.51%) $2.85</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$84.14</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$84.14</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$362B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$3620 亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$81.39 - $84.14</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$81.39 - $84.14</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$65.35 - $84.14</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$65.35 - $84.14</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>18.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1830 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>16.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1650 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>61.82%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>61.82%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>2.47%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2.47%</p>
</div><p>Coca-Cola is having a good year by its own standards. Net revenues grew 12% to $12.5 billion in the first quarter, and organic revenue grew 10% -- helped in part by six extra days on the calendar -- and comparable earnings per share rose 18%. Yet the company's full-year outlook calls for organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可口可乐在其自身标准下过得不错。今年第一季度净收入增长 12%，达到 125 亿美元，且有机收入增长 10%——部分得益于日历上多出的六天——可比每股收益增长 18%。然而，公司对全年的展望预计有机收入增长为 4% 到 5%。</p>
</div><p>So a company that just grew revenue 85% costs less per dollar of expected profit than one guiding for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth. That's the inversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，一家刚刚实现 85% 收入增长的公司，其每美元预期利润的成本低于一家预计中个位数有机收入增长的公司。这就是反转。</p>
</div><h2>What each price is saying</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每个价格在说什么</h2>
</div><p>Markets rarely hand out discounts for no reason, and Nvidia carries a specific fear: that AI infrastructure spending is cyclical, and that today's earnings sit closer to a cycle top or at least some sort of plateau. If the big cloud companies ever pause to digest the computing capacity they've bought, or if chipmaking competition ramps up and erodes Nvidia's pricing power, its earnings growth could slow dramatically or even turn negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场很少无缘无故地提供折扣，而英伟达承载着一种特定的恐惧：即人工智能基础设施支出是周期性的，今天的收益更接近于周期顶点或至少某种平台。如果大型云公司暂停消化他们购买的计算能力，或者如果芯片制造竞争加剧并侵蚀英伟达的定价能力，其收益增长可能会急剧放缓，甚至转为负增长。</p>
</div><p>Coca-Cola's valuation premium is the opposite story. Its earnings are among the most predictable in the market, and in a year when investors have favored defensive dividend payers, predictability commands a higher price than usual. Nobody buying Coca-Cola at a record high expects 85% growth. But they expect no surprises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可口可乐的估值溢价则是相反的故事。其收益在市场上是最可预测的，在投资者偏好 防御性分红支付者 的年份，预测性通常会比平常更高的价格。没有人会在创下历史新高的可口可乐上期待 85% 的增长。但他们期待没有惊喜。</p>
</div><p>Both prices, in other words, can be justified. But which investment is better?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，这两个价格都是合理的。但哪个投资更好？</p>
</div><p>For Coca-Cola to justify a mid-20s forward multiple, its mid-single-digit revenue growth must essentially persist indefinitely. Even more, the market must continually maintain an appetite for safety and durability. Otherwise, investors could sell off the stock even if revenue and earnings growth persist at similar rates. History suggests that paying up for safety carries its own cost. When the anxiety that drove investors into defensive names fades, so can the premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让可口可乐证明中 20 倍的前瞻倍数，其中个位数的收入增长必须基本上无限期地持续下去。更重要的是，市场必须持续保持对安全性和耐用性的需求。否则，即使收入和收益增长保持相似的速度，投资者也可能会抛售该股票。历史表明，为安全支付溢价本身就有代价。当驱动投资者进入防御性股票的焦虑消退时，溢价也可能消失。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-1.39%) $-2.75</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.39%) $-2.75</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$194.84</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$194.84</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.7T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.7 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$192.36 - $200.03</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$192.36 - $200.03</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$157.34 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$157.34 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>5.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>560 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>159M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.59 亿</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.14%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.14%</p>
</div><p>For Nvidia to justify a low-20s multiple, the company's revenue and earnings growth could slow dramatically over the coming years, and the stock would likely still live up to its valuation. And, in the meantime, management's guidance for roughly $91 billion in revenue this quarter suggests demand hasn't cracked yet. But the risk lies further out: whether AI spending continues to compound into 2027 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了让英伟达证明低 20 倍的倍数，该公司的收入和收益增长在未来几年可能会急剧放缓，而股票仍可能符合其估值。同时，管理层对本季度约 910 亿美元收入的指引表明需求尚未减弱。但风险在于更远的未来：人工智能支出是否会在 2027 年及以后继续复合增长。</p>
</div><p>If one of these two prices is wrong, I think it's Nvidia's. A dominant company growing this fast rarely trades at a discount to a mature consumer staple, and the discount exists mostly because investors are bracing for a slowdown that even the company's own guidance doesn't yet show.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这两个价格中有一个是错误的，我认为是英伟达的。一个快速增长的主导公司很少会以低于成熟消费品的折扣交易，而这种折扣主要是因为投资者在为放缓做准备，即使公司的指引尚未显示出这一点。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the bear case for Nvidia (that growth unexpectedly slows) is worth respecting. Semiconductors have always been cyclical, and this boom will eventually cool. But at these prices, this risk may already be fully priced in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，关于英伟达的悲观预期（即增长意外放缓）是值得尊重的。半导体行业一直是周期性的，这一繁荣最终会降温。但在这些价格下，这种风险可能已经完全反映在价格中了。</p>
</div><p>With this said, I wouldn't sell Coca-Cola to buy Nvidia. The two do different jobs in a portfolio. But for new money weighing the pair today, the growth is on sale, and the safety is marked up. I'd buy the one on sale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我不会卖掉可口可乐去买英伟达。这两者在投资组合中扮演着不同的角色。但对于今天在考虑这对组合的新资金来说，增长是打折的，而安全性则被抬高了。我会选择那个打折的。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Is Now Cheaper Than Coca-Cola. Here's the Math.

- 英伟达（Nvidia）市盈率为 22 倍，低于可口可乐（Coca-Cola）26 倍。  
- 英伟达一季度营收同比增长 85%，而可口可乐增长 12%。  
- 市场对英伟达的未来增长感到担忧，导致其估值折扣。

英伟达的股票现在比可口可乐便宜。以下是计算过程