<p>迈克尔·伯里本周在对人工智能（AI）交易进行做空时设定了入场价格。在他 6 月 30 日的 Substack 帖子中，这位因《大空头》而闻名的对冲基金经理披露了对 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）、<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）、<strong>应用材料</strong>（AMAT 7.51%）、<strong>卡特彼勒</strong>（CAT 2.66%）和 <strong>iShares 半导体 ETF</strong>（SOXX 5.57%）的空头头寸。两天后，他又对 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU 5.68%）进行了做空，报道称其入场价接近每股 1,052 美元。</p>
<p>伯里是那位在 2008 年崩盘前对房地产市场做空的投资者。当他同时针对市场上三只最广泛持有的股票时，问题几乎自然而然地出现：你应该担心吗？</p>
<p>答案首先是认真对待他的论点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzQvc3RvY2stcHJpY2UtZmFsbGluZy5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzQvc3RvY2stcHJpY2UtZmFsbGluZy5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>伯里的论点</h2>
<p>伯里的论点并不是这些企业正在失败，而是它们的股价已经达到历史极端。他据称指出，美光现在的交易价格远高于其 200 日移动平均线，这是自 1984 年以来的最高点，这一时期包括了互联网泡沫的巅峰。</p>
<p>历史在他的论点中起到了很大作用。美光已经上市四十年，根据伯里的统计，其股票在此期间经历了 34 次超过 30% 的回调。在他看来，AI 热潮并没有取消内存周期，而是让投资者忘记了这个周期的存在。</p>
<p>其余的做空组合在 AI 供应链中延续了相同的逻辑：应用材料销售用于制造先进芯片的设备，卡特彼勒提供数据中心建设所需的机械和电力系统，而半导体 ETF 则将整个行业打包成一个单一的股票代码。</p>
<p>当然，一个著名的名字和一张令人担忧的图表并不能使论点正确。投资者已经对 AI 交易称之为泡沫超过两年，而这些股票仍在上涨。更有用的问题是这三只股票各自有多依赖伯里所攻击的乐观情绪。</p>
<h2>三只股票，三种不同的做空</h2>
<p>美光是他论点中最有趣的，因为从今天的数字来看，这只股票并不显得昂贵。在其 2026 财年第三季度（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日），这家内存制造商的收入同比增长超过四倍，达到 415 亿美元，较上一季度增长约 74%。管理层预计 2026 财年第四季度的收入大约为 500 亿美元。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="美光科技股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<p>美光科技</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-5.68%) $-58.69</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$973.59</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$1.1 万亿</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$950.30 - $1064.56</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$103.38 - $1255.00</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.7M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>51.3M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>72.60%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.05%</p>
<p>截至目前，美光的股价约为每股 976 美元，市盈率大约为 22 倍。这看起来很适中。但内存高峰通常都是如此——当收益激增时，市盈率会压缩，争论从来不是关于市盈率，而是关于如此高的收益能否持续。伯里押注它们不能。美光的反驳是，其新的多年客户协议使需求比以往周期更持久和可预测。</p>
<p>英伟达 可能是名单上最奇怪的名字，因为其估值可以说是最容易辩护的。这家芯片制造商在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日）收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，数据中心收入增长 92%。然而，该股票的市盈率约为 30 倍。如果 AI 交易是泡沫，那么其最大成员的定价则显得温和得多。</p>
<p>而 特斯拉 则是相反的情况。这家电动车制造商在第二季度交付了 480,126 辆汽车，同比增长约 25%——但在报告当天，股价仍下跌了约 7.5%。但市场的关注点已经从销量转向每辆车的盈利能力。特斯拉第一季度的营业利润率仅为 4.2%，在过去 12 个月的每股收益为 1.10 美元的情况下，股价的市盈率超过 350 倍。伯里在这里不需要周期论证。他只需要特斯拉的机器人出租车和软件利润的到来晚于估值的假设。</p>
<p>那么，你应该担心吗？</p>
<p>并不是关于披露本身。做空者宣布其头寸并不会改变这些企业的任何事情。而且伯里在重大判断上也曾早于市场。即使他著名的房地产押注也花了几年才见效。</p>
<p>但他的压力测试对某些股票的影响比其他股票更大。英伟达的数字最能回应他，因为 85% 的增长和 30 倍的市盈率为其他两者提供了没有的缓冲。</p>
<p>其他股票则可能更难辩护。美光要求投资者相信内存定价能够维持在行业历史上难以维持的水平。而特斯拉则要求投资者支付超过 350 倍的市盈率，而该公司的盈利版本仍然大部分在前面。</p>
<p>总体而言，我不会仅仅因为迈克尔·伯里对某只股票做空就卖出该股票。但他的做空是一个诚实审视持仓规模的有用提示。如果内存下滑或机器人出租车时间表的延迟会对投资组合造成严重损害，那么在论点仍未解决时考虑并可能解决这一风险是值得的，而不是等到事情结束后（可能为时已晚）。</p>

特斯拉

美光科技

英伟达

<p>对冲基金经理迈克尔·伯里披露了对英伟达、特斯拉、美光科技、应用材料、卡特彼勒以及 iShares 半导体 ETF 的空头头寸，押注于 AI 交易的下跌。他认为这些股票由于历史极端的拉伸和周期性风险而被高估，尤其是美光科技和特斯拉。尽管英伟达的强劲增长提供了估值缓冲，但文章建议投资者应考虑伯里对内存周期和特斯拉高倍数的警告，尽管不一定仅仅基于他的行动而出售</p>

<p>Michael Burry spent this week putting entry prices on a bet against the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. In a June 30 post on his Substack, the hedge fund manager made famous by &#34;The Big Short&#34; disclosed short positions in <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.39%), <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 7.35%), <strong>Applied Materials</strong>( AMAT 7.51%), <strong>Caterpillar</strong>( CAT 2.66%), and the <strong>iShares Semiconductor ETF</strong>( SOXX 5.57%). Two days later, he added a short against <strong>Micron Technology</strong>( MU 5.68%), reportedly entered near $1,052 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迈克尔·伯里本周在对人工智能（AI）交易进行做空时设定了入场价格。在他 6 月 30 日的 Substack 帖子中，这位因《大空头》而闻名的对冲基金经理披露了对 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）、<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 7.35%）、<strong>应用材料</strong>（AMAT 7.51%）、<strong>卡特彼勒</strong>（CAT 2.66%）和 <strong>iShares 半导体 ETF</strong>（SOXX 5.57%）的空头头寸。两天后，他又对 <strong>美光科技</strong>（MU 5.68%）进行了做空，报道称其入场价接近每股 1,052 美元。</p>
</div><p>Burry is the investor who bet against the housing market ahead of the 2008 crash. When he targets three of the market's most widely held stocks at once, the question practically asks itself: Should you be worried?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯里是那位在 2008 年崩盘前对房地产市场做空的投资者。当他同时针对市场上三只最广泛持有的股票时，问题几乎自然而然地出现：你应该担心吗？</p>
</div><p>The answer starts with taking his argument seriously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>答案首先是认真对待他的论点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc0NzQvc3RvY2stcHJpY2UtZmFsbGluZy5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="A chart showing a stock price declining." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877474%2Fstock-price-falling.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The case Burry is making</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯里的论点</h2>
</div><p>Burry's argument isn't that these businesses are failing. It's that their stock prices have stretched to historical extremes. Micron, he reportedly noted, now trades further above its 200-day moving average than at any point since 1984 -- a stretch that includes the dot-com peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯里的论点并不是这些企业正在失败，而是它们的股价已经达到历史极端。他据称指出，美光现在的交易价格远高于其 200 日移动平均线，这是自 1984 年以来的最高点，这一时期包括了互联网泡沫的巅峰。</p>
</div><p>History does much of the work in his thesis. Micron has been public for four decades, and by Burry's reported count, its stock has suffered 34 drawdowns of more than 30% along the way. In his view, the AI boom hasn't repealed the memory cycle. It has simply made investors forget the cycle exists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史在他的论点中起到了很大作用。美光已经上市四十年，根据伯里的统计，其股票在此期间经历了 34 次超过 30% 的回调。在他看来，AI 热潮并没有取消内存周期，而是让投资者忘记了这个周期的存在。</p>
</div><p>The rest of the short book extends the same logic across the AI supply chain: Applied Materials sells the equipment used to make advanced chips, Caterpillar supplies machinery and power systems for the data center build-out, and the semiconductor ETF wraps the whole group into a single ticker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其余的做空组合在 AI 供应链中延续了相同的逻辑：应用材料销售用于制造先进芯片的设备，卡特彼勒提供数据中心建设所需的机械和电力系统，而半导体 ETF 则将整个行业打包成一个单一的股票代码。</p>
</div><p>Of course, a famous name and an alarming chart don't make a thesis correct. Investors have been calling the AI trade a bubble for more than two years while these stocks kept climbing. The more useful question is how much each of the three stocks depends on the optimism Burry is attacking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，一个著名的名字和一张令人担忧的图表并不能使论点正确。投资者已经对 AI 交易称之为泡沫超过两年，而这些股票仍在上涨。更有用的问题是这三只股票各自有多依赖伯里所攻击的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><h2>Three stocks, three different bets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>三只股票，三种不同的做空</h2>
</div><p>Micron is where his case is most interesting, because the stock doesn't look expensive on today's numbers. In its fiscal third quarter (the period ended May 28, 2026), the memory maker's revenue more than quadrupled year over year to $41.5 billion, and it rose about 74% from the prior quarter. Management guided for roughly $50 billion in revenue in fiscal Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光是他论点中最有趣的，因为从今天的数字来看，这只股票并不显得昂贵。在其 2026 财年第三季度（截至 2026 年 5 月 28 日），这家内存制造商的收入同比增长超过四倍，达到 415 亿美元，较上一季度增长约 74%。管理层预计 2026 财年第四季度的收入大约为 500 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01VLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Micron Technology Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FMU.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: MU</h2>
</div><p>Micron Technology</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美光科技</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-5.68%) $-58.69</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-5.68%) $-58.69</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$973.59</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$973.59</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.1T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.1 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$950.30 - $1064.56</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$950.30 - $1064.56</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$103.38 - $1255.00</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$103.38 - $1255.00</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.7M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>51.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>51.3M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>72.60%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>72.60%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.05%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.05%</p>
</div><p>At about $976 per share as of this writing, Micron trades at roughly 22 times earnings. That looks modest. But memory peaks usually do -- the multiple compresses as earnings spike, and the argument is never about the multiple. It's about whether earnings this high can last. Burry is betting they can't. Micron's counterargument is that its new multi-year customer agreements make demand more durable and predictable than in past cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，美光的股价约为每股 976 美元，市盈率大约为 22 倍。这看起来很适中。但内存高峰通常都是如此——当收益激增时，市盈率会压缩，争论从来不是关于市盈率，而是关于如此高的收益能否持续。伯里押注它们不能。美光的反驳是，其新的多年客户协议使需求比以往周期更持久和可预测。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia may be the strangest name on the list, because its valuation is arguably the easiest to defend. Revenue in the chipmaker's fiscal first quarter (ended April 26, 2026) rose 85% year over year to $81.6 billion, with data center revenue climbing 92%. Yet the stock trades at about 30 times earnings. If the AI trade is a bubble, its largest member is priced like something much tamer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达 可能是名单上最奇怪的名字，因为其估值可以说是最容易辩护的。这家芯片制造商在 2026 财年第一季度（截至 2026 年 4 月 26 日）收入同比增长 85%，达到 816 亿美元，数据中心收入增长 92%。然而，该股票的市盈率约为 30 倍。如果 AI 交易是泡沫，那么其最大成员的定价则显得温和得多。</p>
</div><p>Tesla, meanwhile, is the opposite case. The electric-car maker delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter, up about 25% year over year -- and the stock still fell about 7.5% the day of the report. But the market's focus has moved past volume to what each vehicle earns. Tesla's first-quarter operating margin was just 4.2%, and with earnings per share of $1.10 over the past 12 months, the stock trades at more than 350 times earnings. Burry doesn't need a cycle argument here. He just needs Tesla's robotaxi and software profits to arrive later than the valuation assumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而 特斯拉 则是相反的情况。这家电动车制造商在第二季度交付了 480,126 辆汽车，同比增长约 25%——但在报告当天，股价仍下跌了约 7.5%。但市场的关注点已经从销量转向每辆车的盈利能力。特斯拉第一季度的营业利润率仅为 4.2%，在过去 12 个月的每股收益为 1.10 美元的情况下，股价的市盈率超过 350 倍。伯里在这里不需要周期论证。他只需要特斯拉的机器人出租车和软件利润的到来晚于估值的假设。</p>
</div><p>So, should you be worried?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，你应该担心吗？</p>
</div><p>Not about the disclosure itself. A short-seller announcing his positions changes nothing about these businesses. And Burry has been early on big calls before. Even his famous housing bet took years to pay off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是关于披露本身。做空者宣布其头寸并不会改变这些企业的任何事情。而且伯里在重大判断上也曾早于市场。即使他著名的房地产押注也花了几年才见效。</p>
</div><p>But his stress test lands harder on some of these stocks than others. Nvidia's numbers do the most to answer him, since 85% growth at 30 times earnings leaves a cushion the other two don't have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他的压力测试对某些股票的影响比其他股票更大。英伟达的数字最能回应他，因为 85% 的增长和 30 倍的市盈率为其他两者提供了没有的缓冲。</p>
</div><p>The other stocks are arguably harder to defend. Micron asks investors to believe memory pricing can hold at levels the industry has historically struggled to sustain through a full cycle. And Tesla asks them to pay more than 350 times earnings, while the profitable version of the company remains mostly ahead of it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他股票则可能更难辩护。美光要求投资者相信内存定价能够维持在行业历史上难以维持的水平。而特斯拉则要求投资者支付超过 350 倍的市盈率，而该公司的盈利版本仍然大部分在前面。</p>
</div><p>Overall, I wouldn't sell a stock just because Michael Burry is betting against it. But his shorts are a useful prompt for an honest look at position sizes. If a memory downturn or a slipped robotaxi timeline would do serious damage to a portfolio, that risk is worth considering and potentially even addressing while the argument is still unsettled, not after it's over (and potentially too late).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，我不会仅仅因为迈克尔·伯里对某只股票做空就卖出该股票。但他的做空是一个诚实审视持仓规模的有用提示。如果内存下滑或机器人出租车时间表的延迟会对投资组合造成严重损害，那么在论点仍未解决时考虑并可能解决这一风险是值得的，而不是等到事情结束后（可能为时已晚）。</p>
</div>

"Big Short" Investor Michael Burry Is Now Betting Against Micron, Nvidia, and Tesla. Should You Be Worried?

- Michael Burry 对人工智能相关股票进行做空，包括 Nvidia 和 Tesla 等。  
- 他认为这些股票价格过于高估，且记忆周期未被市场充分认识。  
- Burry 的做空策略促使投资者审视风险，尤其是 Micron 和 Tesla 的高估值情况。

Motley Fool

卡特彼勒

应用材料

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

南方两倍做多特斯拉

1 倍做空 MU ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 MU ETF - GraniteShares

1 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

南方两倍做空英伟达

Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多美光科技 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

Proshares Ultra TSLA

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd TSLAMnETF

TSLA 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

Yieldmax Tsla Option Income ETF

2 倍做空特斯拉 ETF - T-Rex

TSLA 期权收益策略 ETF - GraniteShares

xETFs TSLA Daily Income ETF

TSLA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Tesla TSLA ETF

XI二南特斯-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

GraniteShares YieldBOOST MU ETF

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MU ETF

ProShares Ultra NVDA

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 周配息 ETF - Roundhill

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

南方两倍做多英伟达

NVDA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英伟-U

2 倍做多半导体 ETF - ProShares

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

2 倍做空半导体 ETF - ProShares

半导体 3 倍做空 - Direxion

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long AMAT ETF

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

NVIDIA Corporation

《大空头》投资者迈克尔·伯里目前正在做空美光科技、英伟达和特斯拉。你需要担心吗？