<p>尽管面临越来越多的逆风，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC +0.00%) 在 2026 年仍持续上涨。该基准指数在上半年上涨了 9.6%，即使在伊朗持续战争导致油价飙升的情况下。虽然我们预计美联储将在 2026 年降息，但现在更可能在年底前看到一到两次加息。与此同时，根据某些指标，股票估值已攀升至历史最高水平，除了互联网泡沫时期。</p>
<p>但牛市可能接近尾声而非开始的最大警告信号来自三家公司：<strong>太空探索技术公司</strong>(SPCX +2.69%)，更为人知的是 SpaceX，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.37%)(GOOGL 0.23%)，谷歌的母公司，以及 <strong>SK 海力士</strong>，领先的内存芯片制造商之一。</p>
<p>投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY3NTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtbWFuLW9uLWxhcHRvcC1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWxlZGdlLWFjcm9zcy1mcm9tLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LW55c2UuanBlZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY3NTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtbWFuLW9uLWxhcHRvcC1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWxlZGdlLWFjcm9zcy1mcm9tLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LW55c2UuanBlZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>在华尔街创下新纪录</h2>
<p>上述三家公司在最近几周都创造了历史。</p>
<ul>
<li>Alphabet 于 6 月 2 日发行了价值 850 亿美元的股票，成为华尔街历史上最大的公开股本融资。</li>
<li>SpaceX 在 6 月 12 日的首次公开募股中超越了 Alphabet，最终筹集了 860 亿美元，因为承销商行使了购买额外股份的选择权，使其成为历史上最大的 IPO。</li>
<li>韩国公司 SK 海力士将在几周内在 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 上市美国存托凭证，筹集最多 290 亿美元。这将是 ADR 的创纪录金额。</li>
</ul>
<p>这些公司正在寻求来自投资者的大量资本。不仅如此，他们获得的资金甚至超过了最初的要求。Alphabet 最初计划筹集 800 亿美元，而 SpaceX 的 IPO 旨在筹集 750 亿美元。三家公司合计将筹集约 2000 亿美元。</p>
<p>2000 亿美元的现金并不是凭空出现的。投资者必须出售其他资产来筹集这笔资金。最有可能的是，他们正在出售其他证券，这将对股票市场的其余部分施加压力。随着更多大型 IPO 即将到来，以及更多 SpaceX 股票在锁定期后进入市场，市场上仍将有大量资金流动。</p>
<p>但这些股本融资可能暗示着一些可能对长期股票回报产生更大影响的事情。</p>
<h2>为什么这些公司选择通过股权融资来筹集资本？</h2>
<p>值得注意的是，这三家公司都非常适合在债券市场而非股票市场筹集资本。尤其是 Alphabet 和 SK 海力士，都是盈利能力极强、资产负债表稳健的公司，可以以相对低的利率承担更多债务。</p>
<p>当然，Alphabet 在第一季度增加了 310 亿美元的长期债务，但最终通过股权融资筹集了更多资金。即使是未盈利的 SpaceX 在债券市场上也没有面临筹集资本的挑战。它最近发行了 250 亿美元的债务，超过了最初计划从市场筹集 200 亿美元的目标，获得了 900 亿美元的订单。</p>
<p>这些公司通过股权融资获取现金的事实表明，他们认为股票市场愿意为股权支付溢价价格。这确实是事实，因为股权风险溢价（收益率与国债收益率之间的差异）已缩小到几乎为零。换句话说，对于这些企业来说，放弃未来收益的一部分可能比在当前估值下承担债务更便宜。毕竟，当他们的现金需求不那么庞大时，可以通过回购股票来减少股份。</p>
<p>但普通投资者应当注意这些公司发出的警告。当前股票价格昂贵，市场是卖方市场。这并不意味着市场崩溃即将来临，但确实意味着投资者需要仔细考虑企业的长期价值创造与其当前市场价格及资本成本之间的关系。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

GOOW

<p>SpaceX、Alphabet 和 SK Hynix 正通过股权市场筹集总计 2000 亿美元，创下历史记录。这一巨额融资表明，这些公司认为当前的股票估值过高，宁愿发行股票而非债务。这一趋势暗示市场处于卖方地位，估值高企，向投资者发出警告信号，提示牛市可能面临的限制</p>

<p>Despite a growing number of headwinds, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC +0.00%) has continued its march higher in 2026. The benchmark index was up 9.6% through the first half of the year, even amid an ongoing war in Iran that sent oil prices spiking. While we expected the Fed to lower interest rates in 2026, it's now more likely we'll see one or two interest rate hikes before the end of the year. Meanwhile, stock valuations have climbed to their highest level in history, outside the dot-com bubble, according to certain measures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管面临越来越多的逆风，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC +0.00%) 在 2026 年仍持续上涨。该基准指数在上半年上涨了 9.6%，即使在伊朗持续战争导致油价飙升的情况下。虽然我们预计美联储将在 2026 年降息，但现在更可能在年底前看到一到两次加息。与此同时，根据某些指标，股票估值已攀升至历史最高水平，除了互联网泡沫时期。</p>
</div><p>But the biggest warning signal that the bull market may be closer to the end than the start is coming from three companies: <strong>Space Exploration Technologies</strong>(SPCX +2.69%), better known as SpaceX, <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.37%)(GOOGL 0.23%), Google's parent company, and <strong>SK Hynix</strong>, one of the leading memory chipmakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但牛市可能接近尾声而非开始的最大警告信号来自三家公司：<strong>太空探索技术公司</strong>(SPCX +2.69%)，更为人知的是 SpaceX，<strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG 0.37%)(GOOGL 0.23%)，谷歌的母公司，以及 <strong>SK 海力士</strong>，领先的内存芯片制造商之一。</p>
</div><p>Here's what investors need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者需要了解以下信息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzY3NTIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtbWFuLW9uLWxhcHRvcC1zaXR0aW5nLW9uLWxlZGdlLWFjcm9zcy1mcm9tLXdhbGwtc3RyZWV0LW55c2UuanBlZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F876752%2Fgettyimages-man-on-laptop-sitting-on-ledge-across-from-wall-street-nyse.jpeg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Setting new records on Wall Street</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在华尔街创下新纪录</h2>
</div><p>The above three companies all made history in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上述三家公司在最近几周都创造了历史。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Alphabet issued $85 billion worth of stock on June 2, the largest public equity raise in Wall Street history.</li>
<li>SpaceX outdid Alphabet with its initial public offering on June 12, which ultimately raised $86 billion after the underwriters exercised their option to buy additional shares, making it the biggest IPO in history.</li>
<li>SK Hynix, a Korean company, is set to list American depository receipts on the <strong>Nasdaq</strong> in a few weeks, raising up to $29 billion. That would be a record amount for an ADR.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Alphabet 于 6 月 2 日发行了价值 850 亿美元的股票，成为华尔街历史上最大的公开股本融资。</li>
<li>SpaceX 在 6 月 12 日的首次公开募股中超越了 Alphabet，最终筹集了 860 亿美元，因为承销商行使了购买额外股份的选择权，使其成为历史上最大的 IPO。</li>
<li>韩国公司 SK 海力士将在几周内在 <strong>纳斯达克</strong> 上市美国存托凭证，筹集最多 290 亿美元。这将是 ADR 的创纪录金额。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>These companies are seeking substantial capital from investors. And not only are they receiving it, but they're getting even more than they initially asked for. Alphabet initially planned to raise $80 billion, and SpaceX's IPO was meant to raise $75 billion. Combined, the three companies will raise about $200 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司正在寻求来自投资者的大量资本。不仅如此，他们获得的资金甚至超过了最初的要求。Alphabet 最初计划筹集 800 亿美元，而 SpaceX 的 IPO 旨在筹集 750 亿美元。三家公司合计将筹集约 2000 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>$200 billion in cash doesn't just appear out of nowhere. Investors have to sell other assets to put up that money. Most likely, they're selling other securities, which will put pressure on the rest of the stock market. With more giant IPOs coming down the pipeline and more SpaceX shares entering the market post-lockup, there's still a huge amount of money that will shift in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2000 亿美元的现金并不是凭空出现的。投资者必须出售其他资产来筹集这笔资金。最有可能的是，他们正在出售其他证券，这将对股票市场的其余部分施加压力。随着更多大型 IPO 即将到来，以及更多 SpaceX 股票在锁定期后进入市场，市场上仍将有大量资金流动。</p>
</div><p>But these equity raises may signal something that could have a much bigger impact on long-term stock returns from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这些股本融资可能暗示着一些可能对长期股票回报产生更大影响的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Why are these companies using equity to raise capital?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么这些公司选择通过股权融资来筹集资本？</h2>
</div><p>It's worth noting that all three companies are well-positioned to raise capital in the bond market rather than the stock market. Alphabet and SK Hynix, in particular, are immensely profitable companies with strong balance sheets that could take on more debt at relatively low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，这三家公司都非常适合在债券市场而非股票市场筹集资本。尤其是 Alphabet 和 SK 海力士，都是盈利能力极强、资产负债表稳健的公司，可以以相对低的利率承担更多债务。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, Alphabet added $31 billion in long-term debt to its balance sheet in the first quarter, but ultimately raised much more using equity. Even the unprofitable SpaceX has had no challenges raising capital via the bond market. It recently issued $25 billion in debt, more than its original plan to raise $20 billion from the market, after receiving $90 billion worth of orders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，Alphabet 在第一季度增加了 310 亿美元的长期债务，但最终通过股权融资筹集了更多资金。即使是未盈利的 SpaceX 在债券市场上也没有面临筹集资本的挑战。它最近发行了 250 亿美元的债务，超过了最初计划从市场筹集 200 亿美元的目标，获得了 900 亿美元的订单。</p>
</div><p>The fact that these companies are tapping their equity for cash suggests they see the stock market as willing to pay premium prices for equity right now. That's certainly true, as the equity risk premium (the difference between the earnings yield and the yield on Treasury bonds) has shrunk to nearly nothing. In other words, it may be cheaper for these businesses to give up a portion of future earnings than to take on debt at their current valuations. After all, they can retire shares through buybacks in the future when their cash needs aren't as substantial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些公司通过股权融资获取现金的事实表明，他们认为股票市场愿意为股权支付溢价价格。这确实是事实，因为股权风险溢价（收益率与国债收益率之间的差异）已缩小到几乎为零。换句话说，对于这些企业来说，放弃未来收益的一部分可能比在当前估值下承担债务更便宜。毕竟，当他们的现金需求不那么庞大时，可以通过回购股票来减少股份。</p>
</div><p>But everyday investors should heed the warning that these companies are sending. Stocks are expensive right now, and it's a seller's market. That doesn't mean a market crash is imminent, but it does mean investors need to carefully consider a business's long-term value creation relative to its current market price and its cost of capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但普通投资者应当注意这些公司发出的警告。当前股票价格昂贵，市场是卖方市场。这并不意味着市场崩溃即将来临，但确实意味着投资者需要仔细考虑企业的长期价值创造与其当前市场价格及资本成本之间的关系。</p>
</div>

SpaceX, Alphabet, and SK Hynix Are Sending a Big Signal to the Market, and No One Is Talking About It

- 2026 年，S&P 500 指数上升 9.6%，尽管面临诸多挑战。
- Alphabet、SpaceX 和 SK Hynix 等公司近期创下历史最大股票增发记录。
- 这些公司通过增发股票筹集资金，警告投资者目前股市价格较高。

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SpaceX、Alphabet 和 SK 海力士正在向市场发出重要信号，却无人提及