<p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）多年来一直是投资者青睐的人工智能（AI）股票。作为全球最大的 AI 芯片设计公司，它创造了令人瞩目的收入增长，达到了创纪录的水平，并在 AI 热潮中证明了自己的成功。因此，投资者转向这只股票，推动其在过去五年中上涨了约 900%，也就不足为奇了。</p>
<p>但在今年上半年，情况发生了变化。投资者从一些最大的 AI 赢家——如英伟达——中撤出资金，转而购买尚未获得如此高涨幅的 AI 股票。这一变化帮助了其他芯片公司 <strong>超威半导体</strong>（AMD 4.60%）和 <strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC 5.61%）大幅上涨。它们在上半年分别上涨了 171% 和 278%，远超英伟达。AI 芯片巨头英伟达仅上涨了 7.2%，对于这只股票来说，这个增幅相对较小。</p>
<p>AMD 和英特尔会继续超越英伟达吗？这是我对下半年的预测。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1200" height="675" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AI 机会</h2>
<p>在我给出预测之前，让我们回顾一下这些公司迄今为止如何把握 AI 机会。英伟达是首个推出针对 AI 需求的 图形处理单元（GPU）的公司，使其在这一领域建立了领导地位。英特尔和 AMD 传统上在另一种处理器——中央处理单元（CPU）方面占据领导地位，CPU 是计算机的主要处理器。</p>
<p>英特尔在这一领域领先多年，拥有超过 59% 的 CPU 市场份额，尽管 AMD 逐渐取得了进展，从 2016 年的约 17% 提升至今天的 38%。</p>
<p>在 AI 早期阶段，GPU 是两种芯片中最相关的，驱动着最重要的任务，如 AI 模型的训练。这对英伟达来说是个好消息。AMD 和英特尔稍晚进入 GPU 市场，虽然 AMD 在这里成功实现了增长，但英特尔却遇到了困难。</p>
<p>尽管如此，英特尔旨在扭转局面，并采取了关键措施。公司在一年多前任命了新首席执行官 Lip-Bu Tan，以推动公司的转型战略并加强其在 AI 市场 的地位，投资者对迄今为止的进展和出现的好消息表示赞赏。美国政府去年夏天以约 100 亿美元的价格获得了英特尔 10% 的股份，这一举动被视为投资者所认可的信心标志。在最新的一个季度中，英特尔的收入增长了 7%，这是连续第六个季度的收入超出公司的预期。</p>
<h2>AMD 和英特尔飙升</h2>
<p>因此，毫不奇怪的是，AMD 和英特尔 在股票表现上大幅落后于英伟达，但在今年上半年它们的股价却飙升。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英特尔股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<p>英特尔</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$119.90</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$605B</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>6.2M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>136.6M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>35.90%</p>
<p>现在，这是我对下半年的预测。我预测英伟达将超越这些竞争对手。这有两个原因：英伟达的下一个目标和其估值。我先从目标开始，这就是主导 2000 亿美元的 CPU 市场——这是英伟达过去并未大力进入的市场。事实上，它将在今年秋季推出首款独立 CPU，作为 Vera Rubin 平台的一部分。同时，英伟达还针对个人计算市场推出了一款超级芯片——同样计划在秋季发布——该芯片包括一个 GPU 和一个 CPU。</p>
<p>虽然英伟达可能很难在整个 CPU 市场中完全占据领导地位，但我认为该公司在数据中心的 CPU 市场中显然可以占据主导地位。英伟达预计今年独立 CPU 销售将达到 200 亿美元。值得注意的是，CPU 是驱动自主 AI 所需的关键芯片，而自主 AI 预计将成为下一个 AI 增长驱动因素。这涉及将 AI 应用于现实世界问题，代理人采取解决问题的步骤。</p>
<p>虽然英伟达潜在的 CPU 市场领导地位不会一蹴而就，但如果 Rubin 平台成功推出并且需求旺盛，可能会导致英伟达在下半年的股票表现积极。</p>
<p>估值也可能促使投资者更青睐英伟达而非 AMD 和英特尔。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>以约 22 倍的前瞻性收益预期，英伟达看起来非常便宜，而在最近的涨幅后，另外两家芯片公司的估值则显得过高。所有这些促使我预测，经历了最近几个月股市动能的暂停后，英伟达可能在下半年飙升，并超越 AMD 和英特尔。</p>

英特尔

英伟达

<p>本文分析了上半年股票表现，其中 AMD 和英特尔的表现优于英伟达。文章预测英伟达将在下半年重新夺回主导地位，理由是其通过 Vera Rubin 平台进入 CPU 市场，并且其前瞻市盈率为 22 倍，相较于同行的更高估值具有吸引力</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.39%) has been the &#34;go-to&#34; artificial intelligence (AI) stock for a number of years. Since this tech giant is the No. 1 designer of AI chips, it's generated mind-boggling revenue growth that's reached record levels and proven itself to be a winner in the AI boom. So it's no surprise that investors have turned to the stock, pushing it to a gain of about 900% over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 1.39%）多年来一直是投资者青睐的人工智能（AI）股票。作为全球最大的 AI 芯片设计公司，它创造了令人瞩目的收入增长，达到了创纪录的水平，并在 AI 热潮中证明了自己的成功。因此，投资者转向这只股票，推动其在过去五年中上涨了约 900%，也就不足为奇了。</p>
</div><p>But in the first half of this year, a shift took place. Investors rotated out of some of the biggest AI winners -- like Nvidia -- and picked up shares of AI stocks that hadn't yet gained as much. That movement helped fellow chip companies <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>( AMD 4.60%) and <strong>Intel</strong>( INTC 5.61%) soar. Climbing 171% and 278%, respectively, in the first half, they crushed Nvidia. The AI chip giant advanced 7.2%, which is a pretty small gain for this stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在今年上半年，情况发生了变化。投资者从一些最大的 AI 赢家——如英伟达——中撤出资金，转而购买尚未获得如此高涨幅的 AI 股票。这一变化帮助了其他芯片公司 <strong>超威半导体</strong>（AMD 4.60%）和 <strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC 5.61%）大幅上涨。它们在上半年分别上涨了 171% 和 278%，远超英伟达。AI 芯片巨头英伟达仅上涨了 7.2%，对于这只股票来说，这个增幅相对较小。</p>
</div><p>Will AMD and Intel keep crushing Nvidia? Here's my prediction for the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 和英特尔会继续超越英伟达吗？这是我对下半年的预测。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzcwNzMvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE3MDg4OTk4NC0xMjAweDY3NS0xMjg1NTRlLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="An AI chip is shown." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877073%2Fgettyimages-2170889984-1200x675-128554e.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The AI opportunity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 机会</h2>
</div><p>Before we get to my prediction, though, let's catch up on how these companies have approached the AI opportunity so far. Nvidia was the first to market with graphics processing units (GPUs) tailored to the needs of AI, allowing the company to build out its leadership here. Intel and AMD have traditionally been leaders in another type of processor: the central processing unit (CPU), the main processor in computers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我给出预测之前，让我们回顾一下这些公司迄今为止如何把握 AI 机会。英伟达是首个推出针对 AI 需求的 图形处理单元（GPU）的公司，使其在这一领域建立了领导地位。英特尔和 AMD 传统上在另一种处理器——中央处理单元（CPU）方面占据领导地位，CPU 是计算机的主要处理器。</p>
</div><p>Intel has led here for years and holds more than 59% of total CPU market share, though AMD has gained ground, progressing from a low of about 17% back in 2016 to 38% today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔在这一领域领先多年，拥有超过 59% 的 CPU 市场份额，尽管 AMD 逐渐取得了进展，从 2016 年的约 17% 提升至今天的 38%。</p>
</div><p>The GPU was the most relevant of the two chips during the early days of AI, driving the most important tasks such as the training of AI models. And that was fantastic news for Nvidia. AMD and Intel entered the GPU market later, and while AMD has successfully delivered growth here, Intel has experienced difficulty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 AI 早期阶段，GPU 是两种芯片中最相关的，驱动着最重要的任务，如 AI 模型的训练。这对英伟达来说是个好消息。AMD 和英特尔稍晚进入 GPU 市场，虽然 AMD 在这里成功实现了增长，但英特尔却遇到了困难。</p>
</div><p>That said, Intel aims to turn this around and has taken key steps. The company appointed new chief executive officer Lip-Bu Tan a little over a year ago to drive the company's turnaround strategy and strengthen its position in the AI market, and investors like the progress so far and the good news that's emerged. The U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel last summer, worth about $10 billion -- a sign of confidence that investors appreciated. In the latest quarter, Intel's revenue climbed 7%, and this was the sixth straight quarter of revenue that beat the company's expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，英特尔旨在扭转局面，并采取了关键措施。公司在一年多前任命了新首席执行官 Lip-Bu Tan，以推动公司的转型战略并加强其在 AI 市场 的地位，投资者对迄今为止的进展和出现的好消息表示赞赏。美国政府去年夏天以约 100 亿美元的价格获得了英特尔 10% 的股份，这一举动被视为投资者所认可的信心标志。在最新的一个季度中，英特尔的收入增长了 7%，这是连续第六个季度的收入超出公司的预期。</p>
</div><h2>AMD and Intel skyrocket</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 和英特尔飙升</h2>
</div><p>So, it's not surprising that AMD and Intel, which greatly lagged behind Nvidia from a stock performance perspective, saw their shares skyrocket in the first half of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，毫不奇怪的是，AMD 和英特尔 在股票表现上大幅落后于英伟达，但在今年上半年它们的股价却飙升。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Intel Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FINTC.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
</div><p>Intel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-5.61%) $-7.12</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$119.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$119.90</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$605B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$605B</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$117.64 - $130.71</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>6.2M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>6.2M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>136.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>136.6M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>35.90%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>35.90%</p>
</div><p>Now, here's my prediction for the second half. I predict that Nvidia will outpace these rivals. And this is for two reasons: Nvidia's next goal and its valuation. I'll start with the goal, and this is to dominate the $200 billion CPU market -- a market where Nvidia has not been greatly present in the past. In fact, it's launching its first-ever stand-alone CPU this fall as part of the Vera Rubin platform. And at the same time, Nvidia is targeting the personal computing market with a superchip -- also set for fall release -- that includes a GPU and a CPU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，这是我对下半年的预测。我预测英伟达将超越这些竞争对手。这有两个原因：英伟达的下一个目标和其估值。我先从目标开始，这就是主导 2000 亿美元的 CPU 市场——这是英伟达过去并未大力进入的市场。事实上，它将在今年秋季推出首款独立 CPU，作为 Vera Rubin 平台的一部分。同时，英伟达还针对个人计算市场推出了一款超级芯片——同样计划在秋季发布——该芯片包括一个 GPU 和一个 CPU。</p>
</div><p>While it may be difficult for Nvidia to take complete leadership of the entire CPU market, I think the company could clearly dominate in the CPU market for data centers. Nvidia already forecasts $20 billion in stand-alone CPU sales this year. It's important to note that the CPU is the key chip needed to power agentic AI -- and agentic AI is expected to be the next AI growth driver. This involves the application of AI to real-world problems, with the agent taking problem-solving steps.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达可能很难在整个 CPU 市场中完全占据领导地位，但我认为该公司在数据中心的 CPU 市场中显然可以占据主导地位。英伟达预计今年独立 CPU 销售将达到 200 亿美元。值得注意的是，CPU 是驱动自主 AI 所需的关键芯片，而自主 AI 预计将成为下一个 AI 增长驱动因素。这涉及将 AI 应用于现实世界问题，代理人采取解决问题的步骤。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia's potential CPU market leadership won't happen overnight, a successful launch of the Rubin platform and high demand could lead to positive stock performance for Nvidia in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达潜在的 CPU 市场领导地位不会一蹴而就，但如果 Rubin 平台成功推出并且需求旺盛，可能会导致英伟达在下半年的股票表现积极。</p>
</div><p>Valuation could also push investors to favor Nvidia over AMD and Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值也可能促使投资者更青睐英伟达而非 AMD 和英特尔。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（前瞻） 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>At about 22x forward earnings estimates, Nvidia looks dirt cheap, while the two chip peers look excessively expensive after their recent gains. All of this prompts me to predict that Nvidia, which saw a pause in its stock market momentum in recent months, may soar in the second half -- and crush AMD and Intel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以约 22 倍的前瞻性收益预期，英伟达看起来非常便宜，而在最近的涨幅后，另外两家芯片公司的估值则显得过高。所有这些促使我预测，经历了最近几个月股市动能的暂停后，英伟达可能在下半年飙升，并超越 AMD 和英特尔。</p>
</div>

AMD Stock and Intel Crushed Nvidia in the First Half. Here's My Prediction for the Second Half.

- Nvidia 在 AI 市场的领导地位面临挑战，股价增长相对较小。
- AMD 和 Intel 在上半年股价大幅增长，分别上涨 171% 和 278%。
- Nvidia 计划推出 CPU，以期在下半年逆袭并主导数据中心市场。

Motley Fool

2 倍做多 AMD ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多 INTC ETF - GraniteShares

GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

1 倍做空 AMD ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做空英伟达

Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF

YieldMax INTC Option Income Strategy ETF

Leverage Shares 2X Long AMD Daily ETF

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short AMD ETF

YieldMax AMD Option Income Strategy ETF

Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF

ProShares Ultra NVDA

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Leverage Shares

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 周配息 ETF - Roundhill

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

NVDA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英伟-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

NVIDIA Corporation

AMD 股票和英特尔在上半年表现优于英伟达。以下是我对下半年的预测