<p>下一个巨型公开募股已经在进行中。Anthropic，这家开发 Claude 模型的 人工智能（AI） 公司，于 6 月 1 日秘密提交了上市申请，此前其融资轮筹集了 650 亿美元，估值达到 9650 亿美元。其报告的年化收入接近 500 亿美元，上市据说可能在今年秋季早些时候进行。</p>
<p>这些数字背后的轨迹几乎没有先例。Anthropic 报告的收入年化率在去年 7 月时约为 40 亿美元，而预计仅第二季度的收入就将达到 109 亿美元。只有少数几家公司在美国交易所上市，其市值超过 Anthropic 最后的私人估值。</p>
<p>当然，个人投资者目前还无法购买股票。但市场上最知名的两个名字多年前就已投资，而他们的股份悄然变成了惊人的纸面财富：<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN +0.55%）和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 0.37%）（GOOGL 0.23%）。</p>
<p>哪只股票给投资者提供了更好的认购权？来比较一下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1NDkvYW50aHJvcGljLXN0b2NrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="3840" height="2160" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1NDkvYW50aHJvcGljLXN0b2NrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 亚马逊：更大、更安静的股份</h2>
<p>亚马逊 在 2023 年第三季度至 2025 年第四季度期间投资了 80 亿美元于 Anthropic 的可转换债券，其中部分后来转换为无投票权的优先股。该公司从未披露过其持股比例。但根据其文件估算，持股比例在中高十几的范围，按 Anthropic 当前估值可能价值 1350 亿至 1600 亿美元——而亚马逊已承诺再投资高达 200 亿美元。到 4 月时，该头寸——422 亿美元的可转换债券加 320 亿美元的无投票权优先股——在纸面上已超过 740 亿美元，尚未考虑最新一轮融资可能带来的更高估值。</p>
<p>这些增值已经体现在亚马逊的业绩中。在第一季度，它确认从 Anthropic 投资中获得了 168 亿美元的税前收益，这占该期间税前收入的 40% 以上。</p>
<p>将这一股份与亚马逊自身的规模进行比较，杠杆效应显而易见。以约 2.6 万亿美元的市值计算，1500 亿美元的头寸几乎占公司 6%。如果 IPO 价格达到 1 万亿美元，这一比例还会更高。</p>
<p>扩展</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="亚马逊股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<p>亚马逊</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(0.55%) $1.34</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$243.04</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.6T</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$241.08 - $246.72</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$196.00 - $278.56</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.7M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>50.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>50.60%</p>
<h2>2. Alphabet：受限的股份与复杂性</h2>
<p>Alphabet 的持股情况更为明确。法庭文件显示其在 Anthropic 的直接股权约为 14%，合同上限为 15%——在最后一次私人估值中价值约 1350 亿美元。而在 4 月，该公司据说承诺再投资高达 400 亿美元，其中 10 亿美元立即到位，其余部分与里程碑挂钩。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的账本也显示出类似的私人投资效应。其第一季度包括约 287 亿美元的股权证券收益净收入——几乎占创纪录的 626 亿美元季度利润的一半。</p>
<p>但在 Alphabet 的规模下，这一股份的影响不同。以约 4.4 万亿美元的市值计算，1350 亿美元约占公司 3%。而且还有一个亚马逊不具备的战略问题：Alphabet 直接与其部分拥有的公司竞争，销售其 Gemini 模型与 Anthropic 的 Claude 竞争。</p>
<p>扩展</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Alphabet 股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
<p>Alphabet</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-0.23%) $-0.85</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$360.36</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.4T</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$353.47 - $364.20</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$172.77 - $408.61</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.1M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>31.5M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>60.43%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.24%</p>
<h2>哪只股票给你更好的认购权？</h2>
<p>公开上市为这些持有者改变了两件事。它为两家公司目前通过会计估算的股份印刷了市场价格，并最终打开了一条将纸面收益转化为现金的路径。</p>
<p>就每美元投资的 Anthropic 敞口而言，亚马逊在数学上占优。其估计的股份与 Alphabet 相当或更大，而其公司规模约小 40%——因此 Anthropic 价值的每一次波动对亚马逊股东的影响大约是对 Alphabet 股东的两倍。</p>
<p>但也有一些警告。这些都是纸面价值，而 IPO 最终将在一个可能远不如私人融资轮慷慨的公开市场上进行测试。两者的许多头寸也坐落于不同于普通股的工具中——可转换债券、受限股权——这正是最终提交细节重要的原因。</p>
<p>尽管如此，结论依然成立。如果持有这两只股票的理由是 Anthropic，我会选择购买亚马逊：相对于公司的规模，其敞口显著更大，并且没有资助直接竞争对手的尴尬。Alphabet 的股东获得了一个不错的安慰奖——一个受限但巨大的股份，已经为报告利润增添了色彩。但如果 Anthropic 在今年秋季的定价达到 1 万亿美元或更多，亚马逊将是那只足以改变整个投资案例的股票。</p>

谷歌-A

亚马逊

谷歌-C

<p>Anthropic 是一家估值为 9650 亿美元、年化收入接近 500 亿美元的人工智能公司，正在为今年秋季可能进行的 1 万亿美元首次公开募股（IPO）做准备。亚马逊和谷歌是其主要早期投资者。亚马逊相对持有更大股份（约占其市值的 6%），且没有直接竞争，而谷歌则拥有大约 14-15% 的股份，但与其 Gemini 模型存在战略冲突。分析师认为，亚马逊由于更高的杠杆和缺乏竞争重叠，提供了更好的 Anthropic 增长曝光机会</p>

<p>The next giant public offering is already in motion. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence (AI) company behind the Claude models, confidentially filed to go public on June 1, on the heels of a funding round that raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation. Its reported annualized revenue is approaching $50 billion, and a listing reportedly could come as early as this fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一个巨型公开募股已经在进行中。Anthropic，这家开发 Claude 模型的 人工智能（AI） 公司，于 6 月 1 日秘密提交了上市申请，此前其融资轮筹集了 650 亿美元，估值达到 9650 亿美元。其报告的年化收入接近 500 亿美元，上市据说可能在今年秋季早些时候进行。</p>
</div><p>The trajectory behind those numbers has few precedents. Anthropic's reported revenue run rate was about $4 billion as recently as last July, and expectations reportedly call for $10.9 billion of revenue in the second quarter alone. Only a handful of companies listed on U.S. exchanges carry a market value above Anthropic's last private mark.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些数字背后的轨迹几乎没有先例。Anthropic 报告的收入年化率在去年 7 月时约为 40 亿美元，而预计仅第二季度的收入就将达到 109 亿美元。只有少数几家公司在美国交易所上市，其市值超过 Anthropic 最后的私人估值。</p>
</div><p>Individual investors, of course, can't buy shares yet. But two of the market's most familiar names bought in years ago, and their stakes have quietly become staggeringly large paper windfalls: <strong>Amazon</strong>( AMZN +0.55%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>( GOOG 0.37%)( GOOGL 0.23%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，个人投资者目前还无法购买股票。但市场上最知名的两个名字多年前就已投资，而他们的股份悄然变成了惊人的纸面财富：<strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN +0.55%）和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG 0.37%）（GOOGL 0.23%）。</p>
</div><p>Which stock gives investors the better claim on the debut? Run the stakes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哪只股票给投资者提供了更好的认购权？来比较一下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1NDkvYW50aHJvcGljLXN0b2NrLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Rows of computer servers in a data center." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877549%2Fanthropic-stock.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Amazon: the bigger, quieter stake</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 亚马逊：更大、更安静的股份</h2>
</div><p>Amazon invested $8 billion in Anthropic convertible notes from Q3 2023 to Q4 2025, with portions later converted to nonvoting preferred stock. The company has never disclosed an ownership percentage. But estimates built from its filings put the stake in the mid-to-high teens, worth perhaps $135 billion to $160 billion at Anthropic's current valuation -- and Amazon has committed to invest up to $20 billion more. By April, the position -- $42.2 billion of convertible notes plus $32 billion of nonvoting preferred -- was already carried at more than $74 billion on paper, before the latest round could mark it higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊 在 2023 年第三季度至 2025 年第四季度期间投资了 80 亿美元于 Anthropic 的可转换债券，其中部分后来转换为无投票权的优先股。该公司从未披露过其持股比例。但根据其文件估算，持股比例在中高十几的范围，按 Anthropic 当前估值可能价值 1350 亿至 1600 亿美元——而亚马逊已承诺再投资高达 200 亿美元。到 4 月时，该头寸——422 亿美元的可转换债券加 320 亿美元的无投票权优先股——在纸面上已超过 740 亿美元，尚未考虑最新一轮融资可能带来的更高估值。</p>
</div><p>The mark-ups are already flowing through Amazon's results. In the first quarter, it recognized $16.8 billion of pre-tax gains included in non-operating income from its Anthropic investments -- more than 40% of its pre-tax income for the period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些增值已经体现在亚马逊的业绩中。在第一季度，它确认从 Anthropic 投资中获得了 168 亿美元的税前收益，这占该期间税前收入的 40% 以上。</p>
</div><p>Set the stake against Amazon's own size, and the leverage shows. At a market value of about $2.6 trillion, a $150 billion position amounts to nearly 6% of the company. A $1 trillion IPO price would push it higher still.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将这一股份与亚马逊自身的规模进行比较，杠杆效应显而易见。以约 2.6 万亿美元的市值计算，1500 亿美元的头寸几乎占公司 6%。如果 IPO 价格达到 1 万亿美元，这一比例还会更高。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0FNWk4ucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Amazon Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FAMZN.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: AMZN</h2>
</div><p>Amazon</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(0.55%) $1.34</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(0.55%) $1.34</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$243.04</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$243.04</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.6T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.6T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$241.08 - $246.72</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$241.08 - $246.72</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$196.00 - $278.56</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$196.00 - $278.56</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.7M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.7M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>50.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>50.60%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50.60%</p>
</div><h2>2. Alphabet: the capped stake with a complication</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. Alphabet：受限的股份与复杂性</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet's position is more precisely known. Court documents put it at roughly 14% of Anthropic in straight equity, contractually capped at 15% -- worth about $135 billion at the last private valuation. And in April, the company reportedly committed up to $40 billion more, with $10 billion arriving immediately and the rest tied to milestones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的持股情况更为明确。法庭文件显示其在 Anthropic 的直接股权约为 14%，合同上限为 15%——在最后一次私人估值中价值约 1350 亿美元。而在 4 月，该公司据说承诺再投资高达 400 亿美元，其中 10 亿美元立即到位，其余部分与里程碑挂钩。</p>
</div><p>Alphabet's books already show a similar private-investment effect, too. Its first quarter included about $28.7 billion in net income from equity securities gains -- nearly half of a record $62.6 billion quarterly profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的账本也显示出类似的私人投资效应。其第一季度包括约 287 亿美元的股权证券收益净收入——几乎占创纪录的 626 亿美元季度利润的一半。</p>
</div><p>But the stake lands differently at Alphabet's scale. Against a market value of about $4.4 trillion, $135 billion works out to about 3% of the company. And there's a strategic issue Amazon doesn't carry to the same degree: Alphabet competes directly with the company it part-owns, selling its Gemini models against Anthropic's Claude.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在 Alphabet 的规模下，这一股份的影响不同。以约 4.4 万亿美元的市值计算，1350 亿美元约占公司 3%。而且还有一个亚马逊不具备的战略问题：Alphabet 直接与其部分拥有的公司竞争，销售其 Gemini 模型与 Anthropic 的 Claude 竞争。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩展</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0dPT0dMLnBuZyZ3PTEyOA" alt="Alphabet Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FGOOGL.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: GOOGL</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-0.23%) $-0.85</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.23%) $-0.85</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$360.36</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$360.36</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.4T</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$353.47 - $364.20</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$353.47 - $364.20</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$172.77 - $408.61</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$172.77 - $408.61</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.1M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>31.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>31.5M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>60.43%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>60.43%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.24%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.24%</p>
</div><h2>Which stock gives you the better claim?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>哪只股票给你更好的认购权？</h2>
</div><p>A public listing changes two things for these holders. It prints a market price on stakes both companies currently value by accounting estimate, and it opens a path -- eventually -- to converting paper gains into cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公开上市为这些持有者改变了两件事。它为两家公司目前通过会计估算的股份印刷了市场价格，并最终打开了一条将纸面收益转化为现金的路径。</p>
</div><p>For Anthropic exposure per dollar invested, Amazon wins the math. Its estimated stake is as large as Alphabet's or larger, inside a company about 40% smaller -- so every move in Anthropic's value means roughly twice as much to Amazon shareholders as it does to Alphabet's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就每美元投资的 Anthropic 敞口而言，亚马逊在数学上占优。其估计的股份与 Alphabet 相当或更大，而其公司规模约小 40%——因此 Anthropic 价值的每一次波动对亚马逊股东的影响大约是对 Alphabet 股东的两倍。</p>
</div><p>But there are some caveats. These are paper values, and an IPO would finally test them in a public market that can be far less generous than a private funding round. Much of both positions also sits in instruments -- convertible notes, capped equity -- whose economics differ from common stock, which is exactly why the eventual filing details matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也有一些警告。这些都是纸面价值，而 IPO 最终将在一个可能远不如私人融资轮慷慨的公开市场上进行测试。两者的许多头寸也坐落于不同于普通股的工具中——可转换债券、受限股权——这正是最终提交细节重要的原因。</p>
</div><p>Still, the conclusion holds. If the reason to own one of these two stocks is Anthropic, I'd buy Amazon: the exposure is meaningfully larger relative to the company's size, and it comes without the awkwardness of funding a direct competitor. Alphabet shareholders get a fine consolation prize -- a capped-but-enormous stake, already padding reported profits. But if Anthropic prices at $1 trillion or more this fall, Amazon is the stock whose windfall is large enough to move the whole investment case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，结论依然成立。如果持有这两只股票的理由是 Anthropic，我会选择购买亚马逊：相对于公司的规模，其敞口显著更大，并且没有资助直接竞争对手的尴尬。Alphabet 的股东获得了一个不错的安慰奖——一个受限但巨大的股份，已经为报告利润增添了色彩。但如果 Anthropic 在今年秋季的定价达到 1 万亿美元或更多，亚马逊将是那只足以改变整个投资案例的股票。</p>
</div>

Anthropic Could Be a $1 Trillion IPO This Fall. These 2 Stocks Already Own a Piece.

- Anthropic 正在计划上市，估值达 9650 亿美元，预计秋季上市。  
- 亚马逊在 Anthropic 持有约 14%-15% 的股份，价值约 1350 亿美元。  
- Alphabet 虽拥有相似价值，但因直接竞争关系牵制其发展。

Motley Fool

GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - Direxion

Anthropic

YieldMax GOOGL Option Income Strategy ETF

2 倍做多谷歌 ETF - T-Rex

1 倍做空谷歌 ETF - Direxion

Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay ETF

Roundhill AMZN WeeklyPay ETF

亚马逊每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

GraniteShares 2x Long GOOGL Daily ETF

亚马逊每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Google GOOGL ETF

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

Tradr 2X Short AMZN Daily ETF

Yieldmax Amzn Option Income ETF

Graniteshares YieldBOOST AMZN ETF

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Amazon AMZN ETF

Anthropic 可能在今年秋季成为市值达 1 万亿美元的 IPO。这两只股票已经持有其部分股份