<p>在经历了三年的辉煌增长后，科技公司在今年上半年面临了更加坎坷的道路——尤其是在第一季度。投资者对人工智能（AI）支出的速度感到担忧，并质疑这一收入机会是否值得。伊朗的动荡也影响了市场情绪，能源价格上涨，投资者密切关注美国的经济报告——许多报告使他们开始质疑经济的强劲程度。所有这些不确定性促使投资者从某些 AI 股票中撤出，转向被视为提供更稳定收入的公司。</p>
<p>然而，在第二季度，情况有所好转，强劲的企业盈利报告和伊朗和平进程的努力给投资者带来了乐观的理由。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 和 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 甚至都实现了两位数的增长。道琼斯在过去五年中首次上半年表现最佳。</p>
<p>但是，在上半年，有一只特定的科技股票表现不佳。这家巨头在此期间成为道琼斯中表现最差的巨型股。该公司是一个应该避免的股票，还是现在为投资者提供了一个显而易见的买入机会？让我们来看看。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>你可能每天使用的平台</h2>
<p>我说的是哪家公司？你可能非常熟悉——你甚至可能每天在工作或家中使用其关键产品之一。我说的是 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.94%），它拥有包括极受欢迎的 Word 和 Excel 在内的 Microsoft 365 应用套件。</p>
<p>微软的股票在上半年下跌了约 20%，成为道琼斯中表现最差的巨型股。为什么会出现如此下跌？年初，随着 AI 模型能力的进步，一些投资者开始担心 AI 最终会取代软件。因此，像微软这样的软件股票下滑。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="微软股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
<p>微软</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$386.81</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.9T 市值仅基于公开交易的流通股计算。不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅基于公开交易的流通股计算。不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>1.1M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>39.8M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>68.31%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.91%</p>
<p>现在，我会立即解决这个担忧：AI 在未来可能会取代某些软件——但我不认为 Microsoft 365 套件会成为这一群体的一部分。公司已经将微软的软件广泛集成到其运营中，这意味着放弃这一平台以选择其他选项将是困难、耗时且成本高昂的。还需要注意的是，微软的软件集成了 AI，为用户提供了如 Copilot 等 AI 功能。因此，随着 AI 的进步，微软的软件也可能会得到改善。</p>
<p>与此同时，微软的用户可能不会迅速改变他们在 Microsoft Word 上写作的习惯，转而使用新系统。人们往往会坚持他们最熟悉的东西——许多人已经使用微软的软件数十年。</p>
<h2>AI 作为有价值的合作伙伴</h2>
<p>所以我认为 AI 并不构成对微软的重大威胁，反而可能成为一个有价值的合作伙伴。此外，微软的 云业务 也因其向客户提供 AI 产品和服务而显著受益。在最近一个季度，该公司表示其 AI 业务飙升了 123%，超过了 370 亿美元的年收入运行率。作为云计算的领导者和 OpenAI 的关键合作伙伴——微软在该 AI 实验室投资了约 130 亿美元——微软在 AI 故事的未来章节中处于有利位置。</p>
<p>当然，微软的股票可能不会像年轻的新兴 AI 股票那样飙升，但这没关系。该公司的形象可能适合广泛的投资者：其盈利记录将令谨慎的投资者印象深刻，而其对 AI 的曝光将令成长型投资者满意。这种组合应该能在长期内支持股票表现。</p>
<p>与此同时，微软的前瞻性市盈率为 20 倍，显得极为便宜，使这只道琼斯股票现在成为一个显而易见的买入机会。</p>

微软

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFX

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFO

MSFW

MSFY

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

<p>在今年上半年，微软是道琼斯工业平均指数中表现最差的巨头公司，股价下跌约 20%，原因是投资者担心人工智能可能会取代传统软件。然而，文章认为这是一个买入机会，指出微软在商业运营中的深度整合、成功引入的人工智能功能如 Copilot，以及其云计算/人工智能业务年收入达到 370 亿美元的强劲表现。以 20 倍的未来收益估值，微软被视为一个强劲的长期投资</p>

<p>After three years of spectacular gains, technology companies faced a rockier path in the first half of this year -- particularly in the first quarter. Investors worried about the pace of spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and whether the revenue opportunity would make it all worthwhile. Turmoil in Iran also weighed on sentiment as energy prices rose and investors carefully watched U.S. economic reports -- and many of these reports prompted them to question the strength of the economy. All of these uncertainties pushed investors into a rotation out of certain AI stocks and into companies viewed as offering more revenue stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了三年的辉煌增长后，科技公司在今年上半年面临了更加坎坷的道路——尤其是在第一季度。投资者对人工智能（AI）支出的速度感到担忧，并质疑这一收入机会是否值得。伊朗的动荡也影响了市场情绪，能源价格上涨，投资者密切关注美国的经济报告——许多报告使他们开始质疑经济的强劲程度。所有这些不确定性促使投资者从某些 AI 股票中撤出，转向被视为提供更稳定收入的公司。</p>
</div><p>The situation brightened in the second quarter, as strong corporate earnings reports and work toward peace in Iran offered investors reason for optimism. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, and the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> even advanced in the double digits. And the Dow posted its best first half in five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在第二季度，情况有所好转，强劲的企业盈利报告和伊朗和平进程的努力给投资者带来了乐观的理由。<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>、<strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 和 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 甚至都实现了两位数的增长。道琼斯在过去五年中首次上半年表现最佳。</p>
</div><p>But, during the first half, one particular tech stock had a difficult time. This giant was the worst-performing mega-cap in the Dow over that period. Is the company a stock to avoid, or is it offering investors a no-brainer buying opportunity right now? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，在上半年，有一只特定的科技股票表现不佳。这家巨头在此期间成为道琼斯中表现最差的巨型股。该公司是一个应该避免的股票，还是现在为投资者提供了一个显而易见的买入机会？让我们来看看。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc1MzQvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTA1OTY2MTk0MC5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="An investor looks at a declining stock chart. " original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877534%2Fgettyimages-1059661940.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Platforms you may use daily</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你可能每天使用的平台</h2>
</div><p>Which company am I talking about? One that you probably know very well -- you may even use one of its key products daily at work or at home. I'm talking about <strong>Microsoft</strong>( MSFT 0.94%), owner of the Microsoft 365 suite of apps, including the immensely popular platforms Word and Excel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我说的是哪家公司？你可能非常熟悉——你甚至可能每天在工作或家中使用其关键产品之一。我说的是 <strong>微软</strong>（MSFT 0.94%），它拥有包括极受欢迎的 Word 和 Excel 在内的 Microsoft 365 应用套件。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft stock dropped about 20% in the first half of the year, posting the biggest loss of any mega-cap member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Why such a decline? Earlier in the year, as the abilities of AI models progressed, some investors started to worry that AI would eventually replace software. As a result, software stocks such as Microsoft slid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软的股票在上半年下跌了约 20%，成为道琼斯中表现最差的巨型股。为什么会出现如此下跌？年初，随着 AI 模型能力的进步，一些投资者开始担心 AI 最终会取代软件。因此，像微软这样的软件股票下滑。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL01TRlQucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Microsoft Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FMSFT.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: MSFT</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.94%) $-3.68</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$386.81</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$386.81</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.9TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.9T 市值仅基于公开交易的流通股计算。不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅基于公开交易的流通股计算。不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$381.26 - $389.04</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$349.20 - $555.45</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.1M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1.1M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>39.8M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>39.8M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>68.31%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>68.31%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.91%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.91%</p>
</div><p>Now, I'll address this concern right away: It's very possible that AI could replace some software down the road -- but I wouldn't expect the Microsoft 365 suite to be part of this group. Companies have extensively integrated Microsoft's software into their operations, meaning it would be difficult, time-consuming, and costly to drop this platform in favor of another option. It's also important to note that Microsoft's software integrates AI, offering AI features such as Copilot to users. So as AI advances, Microsoft's software is likely to improve too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，我会立即解决这个担忧：AI 在未来可能会取代某些软件——但我不认为 Microsoft 365 套件会成为这一群体的一部分。公司已经将微软的软件广泛集成到其运营中，这意味着放弃这一平台以选择其他选项将是困难、耗时且成本高昂的。还需要注意的是，微软的软件集成了 AI，为用户提供了如 Copilot 等 AI 功能。因此，随着 AI 的进步，微软的软件也可能会得到改善。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, at home users of Microsoft may not be quick to shift out of their habits of writing on Microsoft Word, for example, and favor a new system. People tend to stick with what they feel most comfortable with -- and many people have been using Microsoft's software for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，微软的用户可能不会迅速改变他们在 Microsoft Word 上写作的习惯，转而使用新系统。人们往往会坚持他们最熟悉的东西——许多人已经使用微软的软件数十年。</p>
</div><h2>AI as a valuable partner</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 作为有价值的合作伙伴</h2>
</div><p>So I don't think AI represents a major threat to Microsoft, and instead, it may even be a valuable partner. On top of this, Microsoft's cloud business is significantly benefiting from AI as it offers AI products and services to its customers. In the recent quarter, the company said its AI business soared 123% to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion. As a cloud leader and a key partner of OpenAI -- Microsoft has invested about $13 billion in the AI lab -- Microsoft is well-positioned to win in the coming chapters of the AI story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以我认为 AI 并不构成对微软的重大威胁，反而可能成为一个有价值的合作伙伴。此外，微软的 云业务 也因其向客户提供 AI 产品和服务而显著受益。在最近一个季度，该公司表示其 AI 业务飙升了 123%，超过了 370 亿美元的年收入运行率。作为云计算的领导者和 OpenAI 的关键合作伙伴——微软在该 AI 实验室投资了约 130 亿美元——微软在 AI 故事的未来章节中处于有利位置。</p>
</div><p>Of course, Microsoft stock may not soar as much as a young, up-and-coming AI stock, but that's OK. The company has a profile that may suit a broad range of investors: Its earnings track record will impress cautious investors, and its exposure to AI will please growth investors. And this combination should support stock performance over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，微软的股票可能不会像年轻的新兴 AI 股票那样飙升，但这没关系。该公司的形象可能适合广泛的投资者：其盈利记录将令谨慎的投资者印象深刻，而其对 AI 的曝光将令成长型投资者满意。这种组合应该能在长期内支持股票表现。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Microsoft looks dirt cheap at 20x forward earnings estimates, making this Dow Jones stock a no-brainer buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，微软的前瞻性市盈率为 20 倍，显得极为便宜，使这只道琼斯股票现在成为一个显而易见的买入机会。</p>
</div>

This Tech Giant Was the Worst-Performing Mega-Cap in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the First Half. Stock to Avoid or No-Brainer Buying Opportunity?

- 技术公司在 2023 年上半年面临不确定性，特别是 AI 投资回报受关注。  
- 微软股价下跌 20%，因 AI 取代软件的担忧影响投资者信心。  
- 然而，微软云业务受益于 AI 增长，预计长期表现稳健，现股价具吸引力。

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道琼斯指数

标普 500 指数

纳斯达克综合指数

这家科技巨头在道琼斯工业平均指数中是上半年表现最差的超大盘股。是应该规避的股票还是显而易见的买入机会？