<p>TradingKey - 美国股市正式结束了 2026 年上半年的交易。在经历了前几年的集体反弹后，七大科技巨头在今年上半年表现出现了显著的分化，其中四家公司上涨，三家公司下跌，而微软（MSFT）是表现最差的公司。进入 2026 年下半年，微软的股价会继续下滑并测试 200 美元的支撑位，还是会反弹并飙升至 460 美元？</p>
<h2>微软历史价格趋势回顾</h2>
<p>在过去的半年中，微软的股价经历了一次 “历史性的” 调整。截至 6 月 30 日，股价约为 373 美元，较 1 月初约 484 美元的高点下跌近 23%。在短短六个月内，微软的股价经历了两次急剧下跌和一次重大反弹，标志着其波动性极大的旅程。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png"/></p>
<p>微软股价走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>从 1 月到 3 月，微软经历了估值调整和去杠杆回调。年初股价从 472 美元逐渐下滑，2 月份失去了 400 美元的关键心理关口，并在 3 月底加速下滑至 358 美元的低点。从 4 月到 5 月，微软的股价出现了显著的 V 型反弹。股价从 370 美元左右开始，在 4 月中旬重新回到 420 美元的水平。到 5 月底，受益于财报、人工智能基础设施和云业务的持续支撑，股价再次上涨，5 月 29 日收于 450 美元。</p>
<p>在 6 月，微软的股价主要经历了第二次触底和寻找支撑。在 6 月初，股价短暂飙升至 466 美元，但很快回落至 6 月 25 日的上半年低点 349 美元。在 6 月最后的交易日，微软显示出强劲的抄底买入动能，连续反弹以弥补部分损失。</p>
<h2>微软在七大科技巨头中的表现如何？</h2>
<p>在过去六个月中，三大美国股指齐头并进，但 “七大科技巨头” 的表现却出现了分化。其中，Alphabet 表现最佳，上涨超过 13%，而微软表现最差，下跌近 23%。具体情况如下：</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>排名</td>
<td>公司（股票代码）</td>
<td>上半年表现（年初至今）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>为什么微软的股价下跌？</h2>
<p>在了解微软股价下跌的原因之前，首先需要知道其股价为何曾经飙升至历史高点。从 2024 年到 2025 年，微软的股价因人工智能的光环而被推至历史高点。然而，在今年上半年，宏观资金开始从人工智能泡沫中撤出，投资者不再愿意为 “人工智能愿景” 支付高溢价。这主要体现在三个方面：人工智能资本支出、旗舰人工智能产品 Copilot 和 OpenAI。</p>
<p>为了建立人工智能数据中心和购买芯片（GPU/CPU），微软的资本支出如无底洞般激增。微软首席财务官 Amy Hood 大幅提高了 2026 年全年的资本支出指引至 1900 亿美元，远超市场预期的 1546 亿美元。微软如此巨额的前期投资导致其近期自由现金流罕见地下降超过 20%。</p>
<p>尽管微软已将 Copilot 完全嵌入 Office 等软件中，但其当前的市场渗透率和转化率使投资者失去了耐心。截至今年年中，在微软超过 4.5 亿个付费 Microsoft 365 企业席位中，Copilot 的付费渗透率仅约为 3% 至 4.4%。此外，Copilot 被报道存在品牌定位混乱和跨平台兼容性差等问题。由于微软在人工智能基础设施上的投资异常高，导致软件变现速度如同 “挤牙膏”，市场认为 1900 亿美元的资本支出的投资回报在短期内无法得到证明。</p>
<p>市场更为担忧的是，微软披露其高达 45%（约 2810 亿美元）的 6250 亿美元剩余商业履约义务与单一客户 OpenAI 相关，这意味着微软未来的收入高度依赖于 OpenAI 的生存。然而，OpenAI 自身仍处于高度烧钱阶段，尚未实现稳定盈利。这种 “左手与右手” 之间的合同结构促使投资者开始评估结构性风险。</p>
<h2>微软股价预测：下半年的下跌会继续吗？</h2>
<p>在经历了上半年的系统性去杠杆和重新定价后，微软的前瞻市盈率已从之前的疯狂的 33-35 倍压缩至当前的约 21-22 倍。这远低于其 5 年平均的 30 倍，这一估值水平对长期机构资本具有高度吸引力。这表明下半年进一步下跌的空间相对有限，预计股价将主要在 350 美元至 460 美元的宽幅区间内波动。</p>
<p>在下半年，如果美联储在年末之前实际启动降息，并且微软内部的改善——例如 Azure 的收入增长率保持在 38% 以上，以及 Copilot 的企业转化率超出预期——得以实现，这将有助于其股价突破整理区间的上方阻力，并可能挑战其历史高点 550 美元。然而，如果微软的人工智能变现显著停滞，特别是在美联储加息的情况下，微软可能连其关键的防守线都无法守住，向下逼近下一个关键支撑位 200 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png"/></p>
<p>微软股票走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

微软

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

MSFO

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

MSFX

MSFW

MSFY

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

<p>微软股票在 2026 年上半年下跌近 23%，表现不及 “七大巨头”。这一下滑源于高达 1900 亿美元的人工智能资本支出、仅有 3-4% 的 Copilot 采用率，以及对 OpenAI 的重度依赖以获取收入。随着估值压缩至 21-22 倍市盈率，分析师质疑这种下滑是否会持续或反弹</p>

<p>TradingKey - US stocks have officially closed the first half of 2026. After riding a collective rally in previous years, the Magnificent Seven tech giants saw a significant polarization in their performance during the first half of this year, with four gainers and three decliners, and Microsoft ( MSFT) was the worst-performing company among them. Entering the second half of 2026, will Microsoft's stock price continue to slide and test the $200 support level, or will it rebound and surge toward $460?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 美国股市正式结束了 2026 年上半年的交易。在经历了前几年的集体反弹后，七大科技巨头在今年上半年表现出现了显著的分化，其中四家公司上涨，三家公司下跌，而微软（MSFT）是表现最差的公司。进入 2026 年下半年，微软的股价会继续下滑并测试 200 美元的支撑位，还是会反弹并飙升至 460 美元？</p>
</div><h2>Historical Price Trend Review of Microsoft</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软历史价格趋势回顾</h2>
</div><p>Over the past half year, Microsoft's stock price underwent a &#34;historic&#34; correction. As of June 30, the stock price stood around $373, plunging nearly 23% from its early January peak of approximately $484. In just six months, Microsoft's stock experienced two sharp drops and one major rally, marking a highly volatile journey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的半年中，微软的股价经历了一次 “历史性的” 调整。截至 6 月 30 日，股价约为 373 美元，较 1 月初约 484 美元的高点下跌近 23%。在短短六个月内，微软的股价经历了两次急剧下跌和一次重大反弹，标志着其波动性极大的旅程。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-2e1bc64b84bb49ebb42aecdcb44aa14a.png"/></p>
<p>Microsoft Stock Price Chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软股价走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>From January to March, Microsoft underwent a valuation correction and a deleveraging pullback. It drifted lower from $472 at the beginning of the year, lost the key psychological level of $400 in February, and accelerated its slide to a bottom of $358 in late March. From April to May, Microsoft's stock staged a notable V-shaped rebound. Starting around $370, it reclaimed the $420 level in mid-April. By late May, sustained support from its earnings report, AI infrastructure, and cloud business pushed the stock up again, closing at $450 on May 29.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 1 月到 3 月，微软经历了估值调整和去杠杆回调。年初股价从 472 美元逐渐下滑，2 月份失去了 400 美元的关键心理关口，并在 3 月底加速下滑至 358 美元的低点。从 4 月到 5 月，微软的股价出现了显著的 V 型反弹。股价从 370 美元左右开始，在 4 月中旬重新回到 420 美元的水平。到 5 月底，受益于财报、人工智能基础设施和云业务的持续支撑，股价再次上涨，5 月 29 日收于 450 美元。</p>
</div><p>In June, Microsoft's stock price primarily experienced a second bottoming out and a search for support. In early June, the stock briefly surged to $466, but quickly collapsed to hit its first-half low of $349 on June 25. During the final trading days of June, Microsoft showed strong dip-buying momentum, rallying consecutively to recoup some of its losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 6 月，微软的股价主要经历了第二次触底和寻找支撑。在 6 月初，股价短暂飙升至 466 美元，但很快回落至 6 月 25 日的上半年低点 349 美元。在 6 月最后的交易日，微软显示出强劲的抄底买入动能，连续反弹以弥补部分损失。</p>
</div><h2>How is Microsoft performing among the Magnificent Seven?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软在七大科技巨头中的表现如何？</h2>
</div><p>Over the past six months, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose in tandem, but the performance of the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants diverged. Among them, Alphabet performed the best, surging over 13%, while Microsoft performed the worst, plunging nearly 23%. The details are as follows:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去六个月中，三大美国股指齐头并进，但 “七大科技巨头” 的表现却出现了分化。其中，Alphabet 表现最佳，上涨超过 13%，而微软表现最差，下跌近 23%。具体情况如下：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rank</td>
<td>Company (Ticker)</td>
<td>First-Half Performance (YTD)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>排名</td>
<td>公司（股票代码）</td>
<td>上半年表现（年初至今）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Alphabet ( GOOG )</td>
<td>+13.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>NVIDIA ( NVDA )</td>
<td>+7.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Amazon ( AMZN )</td>
<td>+4.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>Apple ( AAPL )</td>
<td>+3.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Tesla ( TSLA )</td>
<td>-6.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6</td>
<td>Meta ( META )</td>
<td>-14.62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Microsoft (MSFT)</td>
<td>-22.99%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Why did Microsoft's stock price fall?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么微软的股价下跌？</h2>
</div><p>Before understanding why Microsoft's stock price fell, it is first necessary to know why its stock price had previously surged to record highs. From 2024 to 2025, Microsoft's stock price was pushed to historic highs by the AI halo. However, in the first half of this year, macro funds began rotating out of the AI bubble, and investors were no longer willing to pay a high premium for the &#34;AI vision.&#34; This was mainly reflected in three areas: AI capital expenditures, the flagship AI product Copilot, and OpenAI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在了解微软股价下跌的原因之前，首先需要知道其股价为何曾经飙升至历史高点。从 2024 年到 2025 年，微软的股价因人工智能的光环而被推至历史高点。然而，在今年上半年，宏观资金开始从人工智能泡沫中撤出，投资者不再愿意为 “人工智能愿景” 支付高溢价。这主要体现在三个方面：人工智能资本支出、旗舰人工智能产品 Copilot 和 OpenAI。</p>
</div><p>In order to build AI data centers and purchase chips (GPUs/CPUs), Microsoft's capital expenditure has surged like a bottomless pit. Microsoft CFO Amy Hood significantly raised the capital expenditure guidance for the full year of 2026 to $190 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $154.6 billion. Such huge upfront investment by Microsoft has led to a rare decline of over 20% in its recent free cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了建立人工智能数据中心和购买芯片（GPU/CPU），微软的资本支出如无底洞般激增。微软首席财务官 Amy Hood 大幅提高了 2026 年全年的资本支出指引至 1900 亿美元，远超市场预期的 1546 亿美元。微软如此巨额的前期投资导致其近期自由现金流罕见地下降超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>Although Microsoft has fully embedded Copilot into software like Office, its current market penetration and conversion rates have caused investors to lose patience. As of the middle of this year, among Microsoft's more than 450 million paid Microsoft 365 corporate seats, the paid penetration rate of Copilot was only about 3% to 4.4%. In addition, Copilot has been reported to have issues such as confused brand positioning and poor cross-platform compatibility. With Microsoft's exceptionally high investment in AI infrastructure, the resulting software monetization speed has been like &#34;squeezing toothpaste,&#34; leading the market to believe that the return on investment of the $190 billion Capex cannot be proven in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管微软已将 Copilot 完全嵌入 Office 等软件中，但其当前的市场渗透率和转化率使投资者失去了耐心。截至今年年中，在微软超过 4.5 亿个付费 Microsoft 365 企业席位中，Copilot 的付费渗透率仅约为 3% 至 4.4%。此外，Copilot 被报道存在品牌定位混乱和跨平台兼容性差等问题。由于微软在人工智能基础设施上的投资异常高，导致软件变现速度如同 “挤牙膏”，市场认为 1900 亿美元的资本支出的投资回报在短期内无法得到证明。</p>
</div><p>What concerns the market even more is that Microsoft disclosed that as much as 45% (about $281 billion) of its whopping $625 billion in remaining commercial performance obligations is tied to a single customer, OpenAI, meaning that Microsoft's future revenue is highly dependent on OpenAI's survival. However, OpenAI itself is still in a highly cash-burning stage and has not yet achieved stable profitability. This &#34;left hand to right hand&#34; contract structure has prompted investors to start evaluating the structural risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场更为担忧的是，微软披露其高达 45%（约 2810 亿美元）的 6250 亿美元剩余商业履约义务与单一客户 OpenAI 相关，这意味着微软未来的收入高度依赖于 OpenAI 的生存。然而，OpenAI 自身仍处于高度烧钱阶段，尚未实现稳定盈利。这种 “左手与右手” 之间的合同结构促使投资者开始评估结构性风险。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft Stock Forecast: Will the Decline Continue into the Second Half of 2026?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微软股价预测：下半年的下跌会继续吗？</h2>
</div><p>Following the systematic deleveraging and repricing in the first half of the year, Microsoft's forward P/E ratio has been compressed from the previous frenetic 33–35 times down to around the current 21–22 times. This is well below its 5-year average of 30 times, and this valuation level has become highly attractive to long-term institutional capital. This suggests that the room for further declines in the second half of the year is relatively limited, with the stock expected to primarily fluctuate within a wide range of $350 to $460.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了上半年的系统性去杠杆和重新定价后，微软的前瞻市盈率已从之前的疯狂的 33-35 倍压缩至当前的约 21-22 倍。这远低于其 5 年平均的 30 倍，这一估值水平对长期机构资本具有高度吸引力。这表明下半年进一步下跌的空间相对有限，预计股价将主要在 350 美元至 460 美元的宽幅区间内波动。</p>
</div><p>In the second half of the year, if the Federal Reserve initiates actual rate cuts before year-end, and if Microsoft's internal improvements—such as Azure's revenue growth rate remaining above 38% and Copilot's enterprise conversion rate exceeding expectations—materialize, it will help its stock price break through the upper resistance of the consolidation range and potentially challenge its historical high of $550. However, if Microsoft's AI monetization stalls significantly, particularly if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, Microsoft might fail to hold even its key defensive line, heading toward the next critical support level of $200.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下半年，如果美联储在年末之前实际启动降息，并且微软内部的改善——例如 Azure 的收入增长率保持在 38% 以上，以及 Copilot 的企业转化率超出预期——得以实现，这将有助于其股价突破整理区间的上方阻力，并可能挑战其历史高点 550 美元。然而，如果微软的人工智能变现显著停滞，特别是在美联储加息的情况下，微软可能连其关键的防守线都无法守住，向下逼近下一个关键支撑位 200 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20260703/Microsoft-msft-price-99e70d0503ab47e5b60d27003c0f3c53.png"/></p>
<p>Microsoft stock chart, Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微软股票走势图，来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
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</div>

Microsoft Stock Price Forecast: Over 20% Slump in First Half of 2026, Will It Keep Falling in the Second Half?

- 微软在 2026 年上半年股票下跌近 23%，表现最差。  
- 市场担忧其对 OpenAI 的依赖及 AI 投资回报。  
- 下半年若美联储降息，微软股价或回升至 $460。

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谷歌-A

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微软股票价格预测：2026 年上半年下跌超过 20%，下半年是否会继续下跌？