<p><strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSM +1.09%）的股票今年迄今已上涨了 35%。然而，TSMC 的涨幅与 <strong>费城半导体行业</strong> 指数 67% 的涨幅相比显得微不足道。</p>
<p>但在公司于 7 月 16 日发布第二季度业绩后，这种情况可能会改变。让我们看看 TSMC 即将发布的业绩为何可能会为这只 半导体股票 注入强劲动力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc5NDIvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="TSMC logo outside company headquarters." width="2000" height="1200" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc5NDIvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：TSMC。</p>
<h2>市场低估了 TSMC 的潜力</h2>
<p>根据 Counterpoint Research，TSMC 是全球最大的半导体代工厂，市场份额为 73%。代工厂制造无厂半导体公司（如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Broadcom</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong> 等）设计的芯片。因此，TSMC 在全球半导体生态系统中扮演着至关重要的角色，为主要客户和各种应用制造芯片。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTS5wbmcmdz0xMjg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="台湾半导体制造公司股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTS5wbmcmdz0xMjg"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: TSM</h2>
<p>台湾半导体制造公司</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(1.09%) $4.70</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$437.27</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$2.3T 市值仅计算已公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算已公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$428.75 - $440.39</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$223.70 - $479.00</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>2.2K</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>14M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>60.72%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.80%</p>
<p>作为最大的半导体代工厂，TSMC 拥有巨大的定价权。_Tom's Hardware_上个月报道，TSMC 将提高其先进芯片制造节点的价格 5% 至 10%。报告补充说，TSMC 已经开始实施价格上涨。值得注意的是，TSMC 在一个月前并不打算提高其先进工艺节点的价格，但似乎对其芯片的强劲需求最终促使了这一举措。</p>
<p>毕竟，TSMC 的先进节点（7 纳米及更小）用于制造数据中心、智能手机和个人电脑（PC）的人工智能（AI）芯片。AI 加速器，如图形处理单元（GPU）和定制芯片，需求旺盛。公司指出，其 AI 加速器的收入预计到 2029 年将以高达 50% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长。</p>
<p>鉴于 TSMC 预计由于半导体需求的快速增长，紧张的供应状况将持续，因此看到这家代工巨头进一步涨价并不令人惊讶。TSMC 最近指出，全球半导体行业的收入到 2030 年可能达到 1.5 万亿美元，比之前的预测增长 50%。</p>
<p>该公司一直在加速建设先进的晶圆厂，以服务高性能计算（HPC）和智能手机市场。这些先进节点由于提供更好的性能和效率而要求更高的价格，这表明它们可以推动 TSMC 的收入和盈利的更强劲增长。</p>
<p>因此，看到 TSMC 的盈利增长超过分析师预计的 2026 年 49% 的底线增长并不令人惊讶。</p>
<h2>为什么股票在 7 月 16 日后可能会加速上涨</h2>
<p>我们已经看到，TSMC 能够超越华尔街的增长预期，这得益于强劲的半导体需求和公司的强大定价权。因此，该公司第二季度每股收益超过 3.83 美元的共识预期的可能性很大，这表明其底线同比增长 55%。</p>
<p>TSMC 在第一季度的盈利同比增长近 65%，而报告的价格上涨可能帮助其在当前季度匹配这一增长率。此外，分析师预测 TSMC 第三季度的盈利将同比增长 45%，尽管上述讨论的因素表明它可能会表现得更好。因此，TSMC 强于预期的业绩和指引可能为这只芯片股票在下半年以及长期的进一步上涨铺平道路。</p>

台积电

2 倍做多 TSM ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多台积电 ETF - Direxion

<p>台积电的股票在 7 月 16 日发布第二季度财报后可能会大幅上涨，可能会超越费城交易所半导体行业指数。作为市场份额达到 73% 的主导代工厂，台积电受益于强劲的人工智能芯片需求以及近期在先进制程上提价 5-10%。分析师预计第二季度每股收益将超过 3.83 美元，主要受强大的定价能力和供应限制的推动，这暗示着这家半导体巨头有显著的上涨空间</p>

<p><strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>( TSM +1.09%) stock has clocked respectable gains of 35% so far this year. However, TSMC's gains pale in comparison to the 67% jump in the <strong>PHLX Semiconductor Sector</strong> index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSM +1.09%）的股票今年迄今已上涨了 35%。然而，TSMC 的涨幅与 <strong>费城半导体行业</strong> 指数 67% 的涨幅相比显得微不足道。</p>
</div><p>But that may change after the company releases its second-quarter results on July 16. Let's look at the reasons why TSMC's upcoming results could supercharge this semiconductor stock next week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在公司于 7 月 16 日发布第二季度业绩后，这种情况可能会改变。让我们看看 TSMC 即将发布的业绩为何可能会为这只 半导体股票 注入强劲动力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc5NDIvdGFpd2FuLXNlbWljb25kdWN0b3ItdHNtYy1idWlsZGluZy13aXRoLXRzbWMtbG9nby1pbi1mcm9udF90c21jLmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="TSMC logo outside company headquarters." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877942%2Ftaiwan-semiconductor-tsmc-building-with-tsmc-logo-in-front_tsmc.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: TSMC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：TSMC。</p>
</div><h2>The market is underestimating TSMC's potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场低估了 TSMC 的潜力</h2>
</div><p>TSMC is the world's largest semiconductor foundry, with a market share of 73%, according to Counterpoint Research. Foundries manufacture chips that fabless companies, such as <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Broadcom</strong>, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, and others design. TSMC, therefore, plays a crucial role in the global semiconductor ecosystem, manufacturing chips for major customers and for a wide variety of applications.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Counterpoint Research，TSMC 是全球最大的半导体代工厂，市场份额为 73%。代工厂制造无厂半导体公司（如 <strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Broadcom</strong>、<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong> 等）设计的芯片。因此，TSMC 在全球半导体生态系统中扮演着至关重要的角色，为主要客户和各种应用制造芯片。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTS5wbmcmdz0xMjg" alt="Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSM.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NYSE: TSM</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NYSE: TSM</h2>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾半导体制造公司</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(1.09%) $4.70</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(1.09%) $4.70</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$437.27</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$437.27</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$2.3TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$2.3T 市值仅计算已公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算已公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$428.75 - $440.39</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$428.75 - $440.39</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$223.70 - $479.00</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$223.70 - $479.00</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.2K</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2.2K</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>14M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>14M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>60.72%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>60.72%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.80%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.80%</p>
</div><p>TSMC's position as the largest semiconductor foundry gives it immense pricing power. <em>Tom's Hardware</em> reported last month that it is going to increase the prices of its advanced chipmaking nodes by 5% to 10%. The report added that TSMC has already started rolling out the price hikes. What's worth noting is that TSMC wasn't looking to hike the price of its advanced process nodes just a month ago, but it seems the overwhelming demand for its chips eventually led to such a step.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作为最大的半导体代工厂，TSMC 拥有巨大的定价权。_Tom's Hardware_上个月报道，TSMC 将提高其先进芯片制造节点的价格 5% 至 10%。报告补充说，TSMC 已经开始实施价格上涨。值得注意的是，TSMC 在一个月前并不打算提高其先进工艺节点的价格，但似乎对其芯片的强劲需求最终促使了这一举措。</p>
</div><p>After all, TSMC's advanced nodes, which are 7-nanometer (nm) and smaller, are used to make artificial intelligence (AI) chips for data centers, smartphones, and personal computers (PCs). AI accelerators, such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and custom chips, are in terrific demand. The company notes that its AI accelerator revenue will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the high 50% range through 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毕竟，TSMC 的先进节点（7 纳米及更小）用于制造数据中心、智能手机和个人电脑（PC）的人工智能（AI）芯片。AI 加速器，如图形处理单元（GPU）和定制芯片，需求旺盛。公司指出，其 AI 加速器的收入预计到 2029 年将以高达 50% 的复合年增长率（CAGR）增长。</p>
</div><p>Given that TSMC expects the tight supply situation to persist due to rapidly growing semiconductor demand, it won't be surprising to see further price hikes from the foundry giant. TSMC recently pointed out that the global semiconductor industry's revenue could reach $1.5 trillion in 2030, up 50% from its earlier forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于 TSMC 预计由于半导体需求的快速增长，紧张的供应状况将持续，因此看到这家代工巨头进一步涨价并不令人惊讶。TSMC 最近指出，全球半导体行业的收入到 2030 年可能达到 1.5 万亿美元，比之前的预测增长 50%。</p>
</div><p>The company has been accelerating the build-out of advanced fabs to serve the high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphone markets. These advanced nodes command higher prices due to the better performance and efficiency they offer, suggesting they can drive a stronger increase in TSMC's revenue and earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司一直在加速建设先进的晶圆厂，以服务高性能计算（HPC）和智能手机市场。这些先进节点由于提供更好的性能和效率而要求更高的价格，这表明它们可以推动 TSMC 的收入和盈利的更强劲增长。</p>
</div><p>So, it won't be surprising to see TSMC's earnings growth outpacing the 49% bottom-line jump that analysts are expecting in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，看到 TSMC 的盈利增长超过分析师预计的 2026 年 49% 的底线增长并不令人惊讶。</p>
</div><h2>Why the stock could step on the gas after July 16</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么股票在 7 月 16 日后可能会加速上涨</h2>
</div><p>We have seen that TSMC can exceed Wall Street's growth expectations due to the terrific semiconductor demand and the company's strong pricing power. As a result, there is a strong likelihood the company's Q2 earnings per share will exceed the $3.83 consensus estimate, which suggests a 55% year-over-year increase in its bottom line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经看到，TSMC 能够超越华尔街的增长预期，这得益于强劲的半导体需求和公司的强大定价权。因此，该公司第二季度每股收益超过 3.83 美元的共识预期的可能性很大，这表明其底线同比增长 55%。</p>
</div><p>TSMC's earnings increased nearly 65% year-over-year in Q1, and the reported price hikes could help it match that growth rate in the current quarter. Also, analysts are forecasting TSMC's Q3 earnings to increase by 45% year over year, though the points discussed above indicate it could do better than that. So, TSMC's stronger-than-expected results and guidance could pave the way for more upside in this chip stock in the second half of the year, and in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSMC 在第一季度的盈利同比增长近 65%，而报告的价格上涨可能帮助其在当前季度匹配这一增长率。此外，分析师预测 TSMC 第三季度的盈利将同比增长 45%，尽管上述讨论的因素表明它可能会表现得更好。因此，TSMC 强于预期的业绩和指引可能为这只芯片股票在下半年以及长期的进一步上涨铺平道路。</p>
</div>

Prediction: TSMC Stock Is Going to Soar After July 16

- TSMC 股票今年涨幅达到 35%，但低于 PHLX 半导体指数的 67%。  
- TSMC 即将在 7 月 16 日发布二季度财报，可能超出市场预期。  
- 预计盈利将增 55%，因需求强劲及提价措施推动收入增长。

预测：台积电股票将在 7 月 16 日之后大幅上涨