<p>在 2026 年的大部分时间里，<strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC +4.78%）是芯片行业的复苏故事。这只股票因市场相信其新的 18A 制造工艺将最终使公司重回领先地位而上涨了三倍多。然而，在过去一周，这一涨势戛然而止。</p>
<p>截至目前，<strong>英特尔</strong>（Intel）的股价在一周内下跌了约 21%，交易价格约为 110 美元。这对于今年市场表现最佳的股票之一来说是一个令人震惊的逆转。</p>
<p>那么，究竟是什么导致了这一涨势的破裂？三种不同的压力几乎同时出现。以下是每种压力的分析，以及哪一种对投资者最为重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgxNTAvaW50ZWwtc3RvY2staXMtZG93bi5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgxNTAvaW50ZWwtc3RvY2staXMtZG93bi5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>18A 的收益推迟了</h2>
<p>英特尔在 2026 年的整个涨势依赖于一个想法：其最先进的 18A 工艺将在今年投入生产，并将亏损的代工业务推向盈利。</p>
<p>过去一周的报告使这个故事变得复杂。根据行业报告，18A 的良品率（可用芯片的比例）可能要到 2026 年底或 2027 年才能达到盈利水平——这比乐观者的预期要晚。</p>
<p>这个时间点很重要，因为英特尔在制造方面仍在亏损。在 2026 年第一季度，英特尔的代工业务产生的外部客户收入不到 2 亿美元，并且出现了巨大的运营亏损。18A 的良品率越晚达到，投资者等待这只已经定价成功的股票的收益的时间就越长。</p>
<p>良品率并不是一个小细节。每一个下线不可用的芯片都是浪费的晶圆成本，因此低良品率同时压缩了英特尔的收入和利润率。</p>
<p>这是最应该让股东担忧的压力。其他两个压力与竞争和市场情绪有关，而这一点直接关系到股票最初上涨的原因。</p>
<h2>AMD 在数据中心超越了它</h2>
<p>在 2026 年第一季度，<strong>AMD</strong> 在数据中心的收入超过了英特尔。</p>
<p>在 2026 年第一季度，AMD 的数据中心部门产生了 58 亿美元的收入，同比增长 57%。而英特尔的数据中心业务收入为 51 亿美元，增长了 22%。这一交叉点令人痛心，因为数据中心芯片一直是英特尔数十年的强项。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，这里有一些细微差别。AMD 的部门包括其 Instinct 人工智能（AI） 加速器，而不仅仅是服务器处理器，因此部分领先是与图形芯片有关。具体到服务器处理器，英特尔仍然出货约三分之二的单位。但现在它的收入仅占一半多一点，因为 AMD 持续赢得高价芯片的市场。</p>
<p>无论如何，方向是明确的：英特尔在其最盈利市场的控制力正在减弱。</p>
<h2>整个行业的抛售加剧了局势</h2>
<p>最后的压力与英特尔本身无关。一家大型银行的广泛阅读报告警告了 AI 股票的泡沫状况，即使记忆制造商 <strong>三星</strong> 创下了创纪录的利润——被解读为记忆热潮达到顶峰的迹象——也未能提振市场情绪。芯片股票普遍下跌。</p>
<p>英特尔在自身消息已经动摇的情况下，跌幅超过大多数。当市场情绪转向整个行业时，故事最不稳定的公司往往受到最严重的打击——而英特尔刚刚给市场提供了两个新的担忧理由。这次抛售在几天内抹去了公司约五分之一的市值。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="英特尔股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<p>英特尔</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(4.78%) $5.27</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$115.51</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$554B 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$113.42 - $116.62</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>150 万</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>1356 万</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>35.90%</p>
<h2>崩盘是否改变了局势？</h2>
<p>那么，21% 的下跌是否使英特尔成为一个便宜的选择？我认为事情并没有那么简单。</p>
<p>三种压力中有两种可以说只是噪音。行业情绪最终会回升，而 AMD 的数据中心领先虽然真实，但并不是什么秘密。但 18A 的延迟则不同。它推迟了牛市论点所建立的单一事件，即使代工业务仍在烧钱。</p>
<p>即使在下跌之后，英特尔也并不明显便宜。它在过去的基础上仍然是亏损的，其股票仍以超过 100 倍的 预期收益 交易，远高于整体市场的低至中 20 倍的倍数。</p>
<p>公平地说，英特尔的数据中心收入仍在增长，其代工业务也在缓慢签约外部客户，而 18A 可能仍会在合理的时间表上投入生产。但这只股票的定价是基于今年实现这一增长的假设，而这一假设刚刚遭受了真正的打击。就个人而言，我希望在将这次崩盘视为机会而非警告之前，看到 18A 良品率改善的确凿证据。</p>

04335

英特尔

<p>英特尔股票在一周内暴跌 21%，主要受到三个因素的影响：其先进的 18A 制造工艺产量延迟、AMD 在数据中心收入上超过英特尔，以及因人工智能泡沫担忧引发的整个行业抛售。尽管股价下跌，英特尔仍处于亏损状态，估值倍数较高，这表明此次崩盘可能尚未代表一个便宜的买入机会，因为核心的看涨假设正面临挑战</p>

<p>For most of 2026, <strong>Intel</strong>( INTC +4.78%) was the comeback story of the chip sector. The stock had more than tripled on the belief that its new 18A manufacturing process would finally put the company back on the leading edge. Then, over the past week, the rally came apart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年的大部分时间里，<strong>英特尔</strong>（INTC +4.78%）是芯片行业的复苏故事。这只股票因市场相信其新的 18A 制造工艺将最终使公司重回领先地位而上涨了三倍多。然而，在过去一周，这一涨势戛然而止。</p>
</div><p>Intel shares have tumbled about 21% in a week, trading at about $110 as of this writing. That is a jarring reversal for one of the market's best performers this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>英特尔</strong>（Intel）的股价在一周内下跌了约 21%，交易价格约为 110 美元。这对于今年市场表现最佳的股票之一来说是一个令人震惊的逆转。</p>
</div><p>So what actually broke the rally? Three separate pressures landed at nearly the same time. Here's a look at each -- and which one should matter most to investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，究竟是什么导致了这一涨势的破裂？三种不同的压力几乎同时出现。以下是每种压力的分析，以及哪一种对投资者最为重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgxNTAvaW50ZWwtc3RvY2staXMtZG93bi5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="A chart showing a stock price falling." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F878150%2Fintel-stock-is-down.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The 18A payoff got pushed out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>18A 的收益推迟了</h2>
</div><p>Intel's whole 2026 run rested on one idea: that 18A, its most advanced process, would ramp this year and pull the money-losing foundry business toward profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔在 2026 年的整个涨势依赖于一个想法：其最先进的 18A 工艺将在今年投入生产，并将亏损的代工业务推向盈利。</p>
</div><p>Reports over the past week complicated that story. According to industry reports, 18A yields (the share of chips that come off the line usable) may not reach profitable levels until late 2026 or 2027 -- later than bulls had assumed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一周的报告使这个故事变得复杂。根据行业报告，18A 的良品率（可用芯片的比例）可能要到 2026 年底或 2027 年才能达到盈利水平——这比乐观者的预期要晚。</p>
</div><p>That timing matters because Intel is still losing money in manufacturing. In the first quarter of 2026, Intel foundry generated less than $200 million in external customer revenue and posted a steep operating loss. The longer 18A takes to yield well, the longer investors wait for the payoff on a stock that had already priced success in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个时间点很重要，因为英特尔在制造方面仍在亏损。在 2026 年第一季度，英特尔的代工业务产生的外部客户收入不到 2 亿美元，并且出现了巨大的运营亏损。18A 的良品率越晚达到，投资者等待这只已经定价成功的股票的收益的时间就越长。</p>
</div><p>Yields aren't a minor detail, either. Every chip that comes off the line unusable is wasted wafer cost, so weak yields squeeze Intel's revenue and its margins at the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>良品率并不是一个小细节。每一个下线不可用的芯片都是浪费的晶圆成本，因此低良品率同时压缩了英特尔的收入和利润率。</p>
</div><p>This is the pressure that should worry shareholders most. The other two are about competition and mood. This one goes to the heart of why the stock ran in the first place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是最应该让股东担忧的压力。其他两个压力与竞争和市场情绪有关，而这一点直接关系到股票最初上涨的原因。</p>
</div><h2>AMD passed it in the data center</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 在数据中心超越了它</h2>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2026, <strong>AMD</strong> out-earned Intel in the data center.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年第一季度，<strong>AMD</strong> 在数据中心的收入超过了英特尔。</p>
</div><p>In the first quarter of 2026, AMD's data-center segment generated $5.8 billion in revenue, up 57% year over year. Intel's own data-center business brought in $5.1 billion, up a respectable 22%. The crossover stings, because data-center chips have been Intel's stronghold for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年第一季度，AMD 的数据中心部门产生了 58 亿美元的收入，同比增长 57%。而英特尔的数据中心业务收入为 51 亿美元，增长了 22%。这一交叉点令人痛心，因为数据中心芯片一直是英特尔数十年的强项。</p>
</div><p>There is some nuance worth noting. AMD's segment includes its Instinct artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, not just server processors, so part of that lead is a graphics-chip story. Specifically for server processors, Intel still ships about two-thirds of the units. But it now collects only a little more than half the revenue, because AMD keeps winning the higher-priced chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，这里有一些细微差别。AMD 的部门包括其 Instinct 人工智能（AI） 加速器，而不仅仅是服务器处理器，因此部分领先是与图形芯片有关。具体到服务器处理器，英特尔仍然出货约三分之二的单位。但现在它的收入仅占一半多一点，因为 AMD 持续赢得高价芯片的市场。</p>
</div><p>Either way, the direction is clear: Intel's grip on its most profitable market is loosening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，方向是明确的：英特尔在其最盈利市场的控制力正在减弱。</p>
</div><h2>A sectorwide sell-off did the rest</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>整个行业的抛售加剧了局势</h2>
</div><p>The final pressure had nothing to do with Intel specifically. A widely read note from a big bank warned of bubble-like conditions in AI stocks, and even a record profit from memory maker <strong>Samsung</strong> -- read as a sign the memory boom was peaking -- did nothing to lift the mood. Chip stocks sold off across the board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后的压力与英特尔本身无关。一家大型银行的广泛阅读报告警告了 AI 股票的泡沫状况，即使记忆制造商 <strong>三星</strong> 创下了创纪录的利润——被解读为记忆热潮达到顶峰的迹象——也未能提振市场情绪。芯片股票普遍下跌。</p>
</div><p>Intel, already wobbling on its own news, fell harder than most. When sentiment turns against a whole sector, the names with the shakiest stories tend to get hit worst -- and Intel had just handed the market two fresh reasons to worry. The sell-off erased roughly a fifth of the company's market value in a matter of days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔在自身消息已经动摇的情况下，跌幅超过大多数。当市场情绪转向整个行业时，故事最不稳定的公司往往受到最严重的打击——而英特尔刚刚给市场提供了两个新的担忧理由。这次抛售在几天内抹去了公司约五分之一的市值。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL0lOVEMucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Intel Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FINTC.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: INTC</h2>
</div><p>Intel</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英特尔</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(4.78%) $5.27</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(4.78%) $5.27</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$115.51</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$115.51</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$554BMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$554B 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$113.42 - $116.62</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$113.42 - $116.62</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$18.96 - $142.35</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>1.5M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>150 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>135.6M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1356 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>35.90%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>35.90%</p>
</div><h2>Does the crash change the case?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>崩盘是否改变了局势？</h2>
</div><p>So has a 21% drop made Intel a bargain? I don't think it's that simple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，21% 的下跌是否使英特尔成为一个便宜的选择？我认为事情并没有那么简单。</p>
</div><p>Two of the three pressures are arguably just noise. Sector sentiment will swing back eventually, and AMD's data-center lead, while real, was hardly a secret. But the 18A delay is different. It pushes out the single event the bull case was built around, even as the foundry is still burning cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三种压力中有两种可以说只是噪音。行业情绪最终会回升，而 AMD 的数据中心领先虽然真实，但并不是什么秘密。但 18A 的延迟则不同。它推迟了牛市论点所建立的单一事件，即使代工业务仍在烧钱。</p>
</div><p>And even after the drop, Intel isn't obviously cheap. It's unprofitable on a trailing basis, and its stock still trades at more than 100 times expected earnings over the next 12 months -- a far richer multiple than the broader market, which sits in the low-to-mid 20s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在下跌之后，英特尔也并不明显便宜。它在过去的基础上仍然是亏损的，其股票仍以超过 100 倍的 预期收益 交易，远高于整体市场的低至中 20 倍的倍数。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, Intel's data-center revenue is still growing, its foundry is slowly signing up outside customers, and 18A may yet ramp on a reasonable timeline. But the stock had been priced for that ramp to materialize this year, and that assumption just took a real hit. Personally, I'd want hard evidence that 18A yields are improving before treating this crash as an opportunity rather than a warning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，英特尔的数据中心收入仍在增长，其代工业务也在缓慢签约外部客户，而 18A 可能仍会在合理的时间表上投入生产。但这只股票的定价是基于今年实现这一增长的假设，而这一假设刚刚遭受了真正的打击。就个人而言，我希望在将这次崩盘视为机会而非警告之前，看到 18A 良品率改善的确凿证据。</p>
</div>

Intel Stock Has Crashed 21% in a Week. Here's What Actually Broke the Rally.

- 英特尔股价在 2026 年上涨三倍，因新 18A 制程引发期待。
- 最近股价暴跌约 21%，原因包括 18A 产量延迟和 AMD 数据中心业务超越。
- 整个芯片行业情绪转弱，导致英特尔市值在数日内蒸发 20%。

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半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF

Leverage Shares 2X Long AMD Daily ETF

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short AMD ETF

YieldMax AMD Option Income Strategy ETF

2 倍做多 AMD ETF - Direxion

Roundhill AMD WeeklyPay ETF

YieldMax INTC Option Income Strategy ETF

1 倍做空 AMD ETF - Direxion

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

三星电子

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Sponsored GDR

英特尔的股票在一周内暴跌了 21%。以下是导致反弹破裂的真正原因