<p>人工智能（AI）风向标最近受到了一些冲击。这声响是机会投资者的召唤吗？<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.24%）可能在几年前开启了 AI 革命，但最近市场却在逐渐抛售这家全球领军企业。</p>
<p>自 5 月份创下历史新高以来，Nvidia 的股价已下跌 14%。尽管本周前三个交易日股价略有回升，但过去一个月股价仍然下跌。这与整体市场形成了鲜明对比，后者正在向新高攀升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0MzI0MDg2Mi0xNDA2eDEwMDAtYWYwNjFhMi5qcGcmdz0zODQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0MzI0MDg2Mi0xNDA2eDEwMDAtYWYwNjFhMi5qcGcmdz0zODQw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在业务仍然蓬勃发展的情况下，从领先的 AI 芯片制造商中撤资令人惊讶，但这并非没有先例。更重要的是，这种情况不太可能是永久性的。今年早些时候，市场情绪转向 AI 受益者的下一步，包括内存和数据存储制造商，这并不离谱，尽管该领域最近受到了一些卖压。</p>
<p>在短期内，你可以在挖掘和铲子生态系统中上下波动。似乎从长远来看，你无法忽视这匹领头马。</p>
<p>Nvidia 股票 目前面临许多挑战，但与机会相比，这些挑战似乎微不足道。让我们仔细看看这家继续成为市值最大公司的公司，但根据一种流行的估值指标，现在的股价是多年来最低的。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-1.24%) $-2.52</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$201.60</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.9T 市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>2.3M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>158.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.14%</p>
<h2>你可以以仅 16 倍的价格购买 Nvidia 明年的收益</h2>
<p>你没看错。Nvidia 目前的交易价格为本财年收益的 23 倍，但明年分析师利润目标的交易价格更是令人震惊的 16 倍。虽然有一些潜在的阻力，我并不想忽视它们。</p>
<p>中国的 DeepSeek 再次引起关注。其最新的 DSpark 推理模块 据说提高了 AI 渲染速度 高达 85%，而无需新硬件。如果你能在现有硬件上做得更多，就没有必要升级到 Nvidia 最新的闪亮芯片。这不是可以轻易忽视的事情，但你还记得在 2025 年初 DeepSeek 登上头条时 Nvidia 的股价暴跌吗？Nvidia 日益增长的客户群更需要可靠性，而不是冒险削减成本。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的收入已经连续三个季度加速增长。它在财年第一季度的 85% 营收增长是一年半以来最强劲的增幅。尽管这种增长率不可持续，但它表明最初的 DeepSeek 头条新闻并没有减缓 Nvidia 的飞速轨迹。</p>
<p>空头可以指出 AI 芯片竞争加剧 和中国贸易限制。Nvidia 刚刚进行了五年来的 首次重大债务发行。需求超过了竞争对手的增长和贸易限制。在这种情况下，押注 Nvidia 可能是个错误，尤其是 Nvidia 的股价处于多年来的最低水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI2LTA3LTA5LWF0LTk0NzQ0YW0ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI2LTA3LTA5LWF0LTk0NzQ0YW0ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据： YCharts。</p>
<h2>一切都在计算之中</h2>
<p>这张图很有趣。紫色线是 Nvidia 的股票，作为市场领头羊，其表现出色，过去三年股价增长超过三倍。蓝色线是 Nvidia 当前财年的收益倍数。你会看到它在 1 月底下降，当时接力棒传递给下一个财年，但注意到在 2024 年（Nvidia 的财年 2025）时，炒作超过了现实，随后在一年后恢复正常，并在今年彻底逆转。橙色线——展望下一个财年的底线预测——显然领先于估值动量的变化。</p>
<p>说 Nvidia 的交易价格仅为明年华尔街利润目标的 16 倍，意味着它比 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 本身还要便宜。当 Nvidia 的增长速度远远快于市场时，它真的应该以折扣价交易吗？Nvidia 的增长在这一点上将减速，随着竞争对手改善其硬件替代品，利润率可能会收缩。</p>
<p>问题是——也是你的机会——这是在最近几个季度被驳斥的同样空头论点。Nvidia 不断增强，分析师的利润预期不断上升。简而言之，到下一个财年结束时，Nvidia 股票今天的快照可能交易的价格远低于明年收益的 16 倍。</p>
<p>叮？该你行动了。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

NVDB

<p>英伟达的股票自 5 月份的高点下跌了 14%，目前的估值为明年收益的 16 倍，处于历史低位。尽管面临中国竞争对手 DeepSeek 和贸易限制等逆风，收入增长依然强劲，第一季度增长了 85%。分析师认为，英伟达在市场上的主导地位和加速的收入使得当前的下跌成为一个机会，因为历史上的熊市案例已被持续的财务实力所驳斥</p>

<p>The artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether has had its bell rung lately. Is the ding a dinner bell for opportunistic investors? <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 1.24%) may have kicked off the AI revolution a couple of years ago, but the market has been rotating out of the global leader lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI）风向标最近受到了一些冲击。这声响是机会投资者的召唤吗？<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 1.24%）可能在几年前开启了 AI 革命，但最近市场却在逐渐抛售这家全球领军企业。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia stock has fallen 14% since hitting an all-time high in May. Despite inching higher through the first three trading days of this week, the shares are lower over the past month. It's a stunning contrast to the overall market, which is clawing toward fresh highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 5 月份创下历史新高以来，Nvidia 的股价已下跌 14%。尽管本周前三个交易日股价略有回升，但过去一个月股价仍然下跌。这与整体市场形成了鲜明对比，后者正在向新高攀升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM0MzI0MDg2Mi0xNDA2eDEwMDAtYWYwNjFhMi5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="Two people checking in on a data center." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F878256%2Fgettyimages-1343240862-1406x1000-af061a2.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Rotation out of the leading AI chipmaker while business is still booming is surprising, but it's not without precedent. More importantly, it's not likely to be permanent. Bullish market sentiment turning its buy order attention to the next step of AI beneficiaries, including memory and data storage manufacturers, earlier this year, isn't outlandish, even if that segment has come under selling pressure in recent weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在业务仍然蓬勃发展的情况下，从领先的 AI 芯片制造商中撤资令人惊讶，但这并非没有先例。更重要的是，这种情况不太可能是永久性的。今年早些时候，市场情绪转向 AI 受益者的下一步，包括内存和数据存储制造商，这并不离谱，尽管该领域最近受到了一些卖压。</p>
</div><p>You can go up and down the pick-and-shovel ecosystem in the near term. It just seems as if you can't ignore the lead horse over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在短期内，你可以在挖掘和铲子生态系统中上下波动。似乎从长远来看，你无法忽视这匹领头马。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia stock is facing plenty of challenges right now, but they seem small compared to the opportunity. Let's take a closer look at the company that continues to be the largest player by market cap, but one that is now the cheapest that it's been in years, according to one popular valuation metric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 股票 目前面临许多挑战，但与机会相比，这些挑战似乎微不足道。让我们仔细看看这家继续成为市值最大公司的公司，但根据一种流行的估值指标，现在的股价是多年来最低的。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-1.24%) $-2.52</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-1.24%) $-2.52</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$201.60</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$201.60</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.9TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.9T 市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。市值仅计算已上市的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别的非交易股份。隐含市值可能有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>2.3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2.3M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>158.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>158.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.14%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.14%</p>
</div><h2>You can buy Nvidia for just 16 times next year's earnings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你可以以仅 16 倍的价格购买 Nvidia 明年的收益</h2>
</div><p>You read that subhead correctly. Nvidia is now trading for 23 times this fiscal year's earnings, but an even more jaw-dropping 16 times next year's analyst profit target. There are some potential headwinds out there, and I don't want to dismiss them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你没看错。Nvidia 目前的交易价格为本财年收益的 23 倍，但明年分析师利润目标的交易价格更是令人震惊的 16 倍。虽然有一些潜在的阻力，我并不想忽视它们。</p>
</div><p>China's DeepSeek is making waves again. Its latest DSpark inference module reportedly improves AI rendering speed by up to 85% without requiring new hardware. If you can do more with existing hardware, there is no need to upgrade to Nvidia's shiniest new chips. That's not something you just sweep under the rug, but do you remember when Nvidia tumbled in early 2025, when DeepSeek made headlines? Nvidia's growing client base needs reliability more than it craves the gamble of cutting corners.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的 DeepSeek 再次引起关注。其最新的 DSpark 推理模块 据说提高了 AI 渲染速度 高达 85%，而无需新硬件。如果你能在现有硬件上做得更多，就没有必要升级到 Nvidia 最新的闪亮芯片。这不是可以轻易忽视的事情，但你还记得在 2025 年初 DeepSeek 登上头条时 Nvidia 的股价暴跌吗？Nvidia 日益增长的客户群更需要可靠性，而不是冒险削减成本。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's revenue has accelerated for three consecutive quarters. The 85% top-line jump it posted in its fiscal first quarter is the strongest increase in a year and a half. The growth rate isn't sustainable, but it shows that the initial DeepSeek headlines didn't slow Nvidia's skyrocketing trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的收入已经连续三个季度加速增长。它在财年第一季度的 85% 营收增长是一年半以来最强劲的增幅。尽管这种增长率不可持续，但它表明最初的 DeepSeek 头条新闻并没有减缓 Nvidia 的飞速轨迹。</p>
</div><p>Bears can point to growing competition in AI chips and Chinese trade restrictions. Nvidia just had its first major debt offering in five years. Demand is outpacing the uptick in competitors and trade restrictions. Betting against Nvidia could be a mistake here, especially with Nvidia shares at their cheapest level in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>空头可以指出 AI 芯片竞争加剧 和中国贸易限制。Nvidia 刚刚进行了五年来的 首次重大债务发行。需求超过了竞争对手的增长和贸易限制。在这种情况下，押注 Nvidia 可能是个错误，尤其是 Nvidia 的股价处于多年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NzgyNTYvc2NyZWVuc2hvdC0yMDI2LTA3LTA5LWF0LTk0NzQ0YW0ucG5nJnc9Mzg0MA" alt="Nvida stock chart over the past three years, showing its forward and next year's earnings multiple near lows." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F878256%2Fscreenshot-2026-07-09-at-94744am.png&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>NVDA data: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据： YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>It all adds up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切都在计算之中</h2>
</div><p>The chart is interesting. The purple line is Nvidia's stock, which has had a stellar run as a market leader, more than tripling over the past three years. The blue line is Nvidia's earnings multiple for the current fiscal year. You see it drop come late January, when the baton is passed to the next fiscal year, but notice how hype exceeded reality in 2024 (Nvidia's fiscal 2025) before normalizing a year later and outright reversing this year. The orange line -- looking out to bottom-line forecasts for the following fiscal year -- is understandably a year ahead of that swing in valuation momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张图很有趣。紫色线是 Nvidia 的股票，作为市场领头羊，其表现出色，过去三年股价增长超过三倍。蓝色线是 Nvidia 当前财年的收益倍数。你会看到它在 1 月底下降，当时接力棒传递给下一个财年，但注意到在 2024 年（Nvidia 的财年 2025）时，炒作超过了现实，随后在一年后恢复正常，并在今年彻底逆转。橙色线——展望下一个财年的底线预测——显然领先于估值动量的变化。</p>
</div><p>Saying that Nvidia is trading for just 16 times next year's Wall Street profit target means that it's cheaper than the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> itself. Should Nvidia really be trading at a discount to the market when it's growing considerably faster? Nvidia's growth will decelerate at this point, and margins may contract as rivals improve their hardware alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说 Nvidia 的交易价格仅为明年华尔街利润目标的 16 倍，意味着它比 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 本身还要便宜。当 Nvidia 的增长速度远远快于市场时，它真的应该以折扣价交易吗？Nvidia 的增长在这一点上将减速，随着竞争对手改善其硬件替代品，利润率可能会收缩。</p>
</div><p>The problem -- and your opportunity -- is that this is the same bear case that has been debunked in recent quarters. Nvidia keeps getting stronger, and analyst profit estimates keep rising. In short, by the end of the next fiscal year, there's a fair chance that Nvidia stock's snapshot today was trading for a lot <em>less</em> than 16 times next year's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题是——也是你的机会——这是在最近几个季度被驳斥的同样空头论点。Nvidia 不断增强，分析师的利润预期不断上升。简而言之，到下一个财年结束时，Nvidia 股票今天的快照可能交易的价格远低于明年收益的 16 倍。</p>
</div><p>Ding? It's your move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叮？该你行动了。</p>
</div>

Is Nvidia Stock Too Cheap to Ignore Right Now?

- 英伟达股价自 5 月创历史新高以来下跌 14%。  
- 尽管面临挑战，英伟达的市场机会仍显著。  
- 当前市盈率为 16 倍，低于标普 500，显示出投资价值。

英伟达的股票现在是否便宜到无法忽视？