<p>截至目前，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.52%）的股票表现异常平淡。截至撰写本文时（7 月 7 日），Nvidia 的股票在 2026 年仅上涨了 5%——这一结果与近年来公司轨迹所定义的抛物线式激增形成了鲜明对比。</p>
<p>这一停滞促使投资者重新评估这家在过去几年中处于人工智能（AI）热潮中心的公司的短期价格走势，以及他们对其长期预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3Nzc0My9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLW91dHNpZGUtd2l0aC1ibGFjay1udmlkaWEtc2lnbi13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1sb2dvLTE4LmpwZxZ3PTM4NDAWb3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9lZGl0b3JpYWwvaW1hZ2VzLzg3Nzc0My9udmlkaWEtaGVhZHF1YXJ0ZXJzLW91dHNpZGUtd2l0aC1ibGFjay1udmlkaWEtc2lnbi13aXRoLW52aWRpYS1sb2dvLTE4LmpwZxZ3PTM4NDAWb3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票出了什么问题？</h2>
<p>在 2023 年至 2025 年之间达到一系列历史新高后，Nvidia 的股票在 2026 年交易区间相对狭窄。</p>
<p>Nvidia 股票的这种整合与大型科技公司普遍疲软的时期相吻合，泡沫估值越来越多地面临关于 生成 AI 基础设施 支出速度的质疑。随着投资者的资金从大型科技公司转移，关注点转向其他被认为提供更直接上行潜力或对 AI 供应链有被低估曝光的半导体公司。</p>
<p>内存专家 美光科技、存储和闪存公司如 闪迪，以及以连接为重点的公司如 <strong>Marvell Technology</strong> 在这一轮转移中都吸引了增量关注。其净效应是资金流入的重新分配，使得 Nvidia 股票缺乏早期阶段 AI 超级周期 中所见的集中买入压力。</p>
<p>展开</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcWdz0xMjgWb3A9cmVzaXpl?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Nvidia 股票报价" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vZy5mb29sY2RuLmNvbS9hcnQvY29tcGFueWxvZ29zL21hcmsvTlZEQS5wbmcWdz0xMjgWb3A9cmVzaXpl"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<p>Nvidia</p>
<p>今日变动</p>
<p>(-0.52%) $-1.07</p>
<p>当前价格</p>
<p>$203.05</p>
<h3>关键数据点</h3>
<p>市值</p>
<p>$4.9T 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
<p>日内区间</p>
<p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
<p>52 周区间</p>
<p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
<p>成交量</p>
<p>3M</p>
<p>平均成交量</p>
<p>158.9M</p>
<p>毛利率</p>
<p>74.15%</p>
<p>股息收益率</p>
<p>0.14%</p>
<h2>Nvidia 的业务是否在成熟？</h2>
<p>一些人可能会将 Nvidia 视为一家从高速增长转向更为稳健、成熟阶段的公司。然而，这种描述与公司内部的几个具体发展并不吻合。</p>
<p>Nvidia 数据中心部门的收入——该业务的主要引擎——在第一季度创下了纪录。此外，管理层预计第二季度的收入增长将加速。这一点尤其重要，因为公司的数据中心部门销售之前曾显示出停滞的迹象。</p>
<p>管理层还明确表示，预计在 2026 年和 2027 年，其 Blackwell 和 Vera Rubin 处理器的收入可见性约为 $1 万亿，这得益于来自超大规模和大型企业客户的多年承诺。</p>
<p>与此同时，公司正在悄然推进一项有意识的战略，扩展其在整个 AI 基础设施堆栈中的覆盖范围。与 <strong>诺基亚</strong> 在网络方面的战略投资和合作，以及与 <strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 在光学组件方面的合作，以及与 Marvell 在互补硅方面的合作，使 Nvidia 能够参与 AI 价值链的每一个主要层面——从 训练 到 推理 芯片，再到高速互连和电力传输。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票有望实现爆炸性增长</h2>
<p>在下图中，投资者可以看到 Nvidia 过去四年 前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数的趋势。Nvidia 当前的估值特征显示出与公司最迅速增长阶段相伴随的高位水平明显压缩。</p>
<p></p>
<p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率 数据由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
<p>这表明，曾经反映投资者对持续收入和盈利加速预期的溢价已正常化至更典型的成熟企业水平。实际上，市场似乎在定价 Nvidia，仿佛其最佳增长机会已经过去。</p>
<p>这并不是 Nvidia 第一次发生这样的重新评级。在 Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率在整合或情绪变化期间收缩的早期实例中，随后收入和盈利加速的证据触发了倍数扩张。这一模式是一致的：一旦运营结果确认公司的 AI 驱动增长仍在继续，投资者最终会重新参与，估值将重新上调。</p>
<p>随着英伟达在其数据中心业务中重新展现出动能，并为人工智能芯片生态系统的相邻层次增加收益奠定基础，我认为这一趋势可能会重演。耐心的投资者如果认识到英伟达近期的价格走势反映的是投资者的谨慎，而非其基本面论点的恶化，就可以为自己在这家芯片巨头持续执行的过程中获得显著的股价上涨做好准备。</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

<p>英伟达的股票在 2026 年仅上涨了 5%，与过去因资金轮动至其他半导体而出现的激增形成对比。然而，数据中心的收入创下历史新高，管理层预计在 2026-2027 年将实现进一步增长，具备 1 万亿美元的可见性。文章认为，目前的估值压缩反映了谨慎而非基本面的疲弱，历史模式表明，随着运营结果确认持续的人工智能驱动增长，可能会出现爆炸性的收益</p>

<p>So far this year, <strong>Nvidia</strong>( NVDA 0.52%) stock has exhibited an unusually muted performance. As of this writing (July 7), Nvidia stock has gained just 5% in 2026 -- a result that stands in sharp contrast to the parabolic surges that have defined the company's trajectory in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.52%）的股票表现异常平淡。截至撰写本文时（7 月 7 日），Nvidia 的股票在 2026 年仅上涨了 5%——这一结果与近年来公司轨迹所定义的抛物线式激增形成了鲜明对比。</p>
</div><p>This pause is prompting investors to reassess both the near-term price action of a company that has spent the last few years at the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and their longer-term expectations for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一停滞促使投资者重新评估这家在过去几年中处于人工智能（AI）热潮中心的公司的短期价格走势，以及他们对其长期预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84Nzc3NDMvbnZpZGlhLWhlYWRxdWFydGVycy1vdXRzaWRlLXdpdGgtYmxhY2stbnZpZGlhLXNpZ24td2l0aC1udmlkaWEtbG9nby0xOC5qcGcmdz0zODQw" alt="Nvidia headquarters with company logo on a sign." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F877743%2Fnvidia-headquarters-outside-with-black-nvidia-sign-with-nvidia-logo-18.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>What's wrong with Nvidia stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票出了什么问题？</h2>
</div><p>After reaching a series of all-time highs between 2023 and 2025, Nvidia stock has traded within a relatively narrow range in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年至 2025 年之间达到一系列历史新高后，Nvidia 的股票在 2026 年交易区间相对狭窄。</p>
</div><p>That consolidation in Nvidia stock has coincided with a period of broader weakness across large-cap technology names, where frothy valuations have increasingly been met with questions about the pace of spending on generative AI infrastructure. As investors' capital rotates out of big tech, attention is shifting toward other semiconductor companies that are perceived to offer more immediate upside or to possess underappreciated exposure to AI supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 股票的这种整合与大型科技公司普遍疲软的时期相吻合，泡沫估值越来越多地面临关于 生成 AI 基础设施 支出速度的质疑。随着投资者的资金从大型科技公司转移，关注点转向其他被认为提供更直接上行潜力或对 AI 供应链有被低估曝光的半导体公司。</p>
</div><p>Memory specialist Micron Technology, storage and flash-memory players such as Sandisk, and connectivity-focused names including <strong>Marvell Technology</strong> have all drawn incremental interest during this rotation. The net effect has been a redistribution of inflows, leaving Nvidia stock without the concentrated buying pressure seen in earlier phases of the AI supercycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>内存专家 美光科技、存储和闪存公司如 闪迪，以及以连接为重点的公司如 <strong>Marvell Technology</strong> 在这一轮转移中都吸引了增量关注。其净效应是资金流入的重新分配，使得 Nvidia 股票缺乏早期阶段 AI 超级周期 中所见的集中买入压力。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL05WREEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Nvidia Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FNVDA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: NVDA</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-0.52%) $-1.07</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-0.52%) $-1.07</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$203.05</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$203.05</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$4.9TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$4.9T 市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。市值仅计算公开交易的流通股，不包括未上市、私有或双重类别非交易股份。隐含市值可能会有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$198.96 - $204.46</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$161.61 - $236.54</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>3M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3M</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>158.9M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>158.9M</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>74.15%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>74.15%</p>
</div><p>Dividend Yield</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股息收益率</p>
</div><p>0.14%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>0.14%</p>
</div><h2>Is Nvidia's business maturing?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 的业务是否在成熟？</h2>
</div><p>Some may see Nvidia as a company transitioning from hypergrowth to a more measured, mature phase. This characterization, however, doesn't mesh with several concrete developments inside the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些人可能会将 Nvidia 视为一家从高速增长转向更为稳健、成熟阶段的公司。然而，这种描述与公司内部的几个具体发展并不吻合。</p>
</div><p>Revenues from Nvidia's data center segment -- the primary engine of the business -- set a record in the first quarter. Moreover, management guided for further revenue growth acceleration for the second quarter. This is particularly meaningful because the company's data center segment sales had previously shown signs of plateauing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 数据中心部门的收入——该业务的主要引擎——在第一季度创下了纪录。此外，管理层预计第二季度的收入增长将加速。这一点尤其重要，因为公司的数据中心部门销售之前曾显示出停滞的迹象。</p>
</div><p>Management has also articulated roughly $1 trillion in revenue visibility for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin processors across 2026 and 2027, anchored by multiyear commitments from hyperscalers and large enterprise customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>管理层还明确表示，预计在 2026 年和 2027 年，其 Blackwell 和 Vera Rubin 处理器的收入可见性约为 $1 万亿，这得益于来自超大规模和大型企业客户的多年承诺。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, the company is quietly pursuing a deliberate strategy of extending its reach across the full AI infrastructure stack. Strategic investments and partnerships involving <strong>Nokia</strong> in networking, <strong>Coherent</strong> and <strong>Lumentum</strong> in optical components, and Marvell in complementary silicon have positioned Nvidia to participate in every major layer of the AI value chain -- from training and inference chips to high-speed interconnects and power delivery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，公司正在悄然推进一项有意识的战略，扩展其在整个 AI 基础设施堆栈中的覆盖范围。与 <strong>诺基亚</strong> 在网络方面的战略投资和合作，以及与 <strong>Coherent</strong> 和 <strong>Lumentum</strong> 在光学组件方面的合作，以及与 Marvell 在互补硅方面的合作，使 Nvidia 能够参与 AI 价值链的每一个主要层面——从 训练 到 推理 芯片，再到高速互连和电力传输。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia stock is set up for explosive gains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票有望实现爆炸性增长</h2>
</div><p>In the chart below, investors can see trends in Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple over the past four years. Nvidia's current valuation profile illustrates a clear compression from elevated levels that accompanied the company's most rapid growth phases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下图中，投资者可以看到 Nvidia 过去四年 前瞻市盈率（P/E）倍数的趋势。Nvidia 当前的估值特征显示出与公司最迅速增长阶段相伴随的高位水平明显压缩。</p>
</div><p></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p></p>
</div><p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率 数据由 YCharts. 提供。</p>
</div><p>This suggests that premiums that once reflected investors' expectations of sustained revenue and earnings acceleration have normalized to levels more typical of a maturing business. In effect, the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明，曾经反映投资者对持续收入和盈利加速预期的溢价已正常化至更典型的成熟企业水平。实际上，市场似乎在定价 Nvidia，仿佛其最佳增长机会已经过去。</p>
</div><p>This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是 Nvidia 第一次发生这样的重新评级。在 Nvidia 的前瞻市盈率在整合或情绪变化期间收缩的早期实例中，随后收入和盈利加速的证据触发了倍数扩张。这一模式是一致的：一旦运营结果确认公司的 AI 驱动增长仍在继续，投资者最终会重新参与，估值将重新上调。</p>
</div><p>With Nvidia now showing renewed momentum in its data center business and laying the foundation for added gains across adjacent layers of the AI chip stack, I think that sequence is likely to repeat. Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着英伟达在其数据中心业务中重新展现出动能，并为人工智能芯片生态系统的相邻层次增加收益奠定基础，我认为这一趋势可能会重演。耐心的投资者如果认识到英伟达近期的价格走势反映的是投资者的谨慎，而非其基本面论点的恶化，就可以为自己在这家芯片巨头持续执行的过程中获得显著的股价上涨做好准备。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Only Gained 5% So Far in 2026. History Is Crystal Clear on Where the Stock Is Headed Next.

- Nvidia 股票在 2026 年涨幅仅为 5%，表现平平。  
- 投资者重新评估对该公司短期及长期的预期。  
- 数据中心收入创纪录，管理层预示进一步增长加速。

Motley Fool

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

南方两倍做多英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - Leverage Shares

南方两倍做空英伟达

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

1.5 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Tradr

ProShares Ultra NVDA

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd NVDAMnETF

NVDA 周配息 ETF - Roundhill

GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF

xETFs NVDA Daily Income ETF

NVDA 期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

XI二南英伟-U

2 倍做多 MAG7 指数 ETF - Roundhill

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

动态半导体 ETF - Invesco

纳斯达克半导体 ETF - First Trust

美光科技

闪迪

迈威尔科技

诺基亚

Coherent Corp.

Lumentum控股

NVIDIA Corporation

Nokia Oyj

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