<span class="HighlightShare-hidden"></span><div id="ArticleBody-InlineImage-106867565"><div><div><div><div></div></div></div><div><div>Traders on the New York Stock Exchange.</div><div>Source: NYSE</div></div></div></div><div><p>This is a very powerful rally. The combination of surprisingly strong economic reports and even more surprisingly strong earnings reports is pushing broad swaths of the U.S. stock market to new highs.</p><p>Even the technicians are impressed.</p><div></div><p>&#34;The vast majority of NYSE stocks are in intermediate-term uptrends, independent of short-term pullbacks and volatility,&#34; Michael N. Kahn of Lowry Research, the oldest technical analysis service in the U.S., wrote in a note to clients.</p><p>Of course, the market hit new highs in January and February, but this, time it's different. Previous new highs in January and February were greeted with some hand-wringing: it was mostly big-cap tech stocks that were forcing the markets higher.</p><p>Not this time.</p><p>The rally has broadened out, big-time. Far more stocks are advancing than declining. Nearly one-fourth of the stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and the NYSE Composite Index are at new highs. Recently, laggard groups like utilities, health care, and REITs have been outperforming prior leaders like technology and industrials.</p></div><div><p>Value is at a new high. Growth is at a new high. Big caps are at new highs, midcaps are at new highs. The small-cap Russell 2000 is lagging slightly, 4% off its high, but no one seems to be complaining too much.</p><div></div><p>The good news is that a major breadth advance is bullish for the markets.</p><p>The bad news is — well, traders aren't sure what the bad news is, or whether the old rules even apply.</p></div><h2><a id="headline0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a>Everything is going up</h2><div><p>One feature of the market this year is that if one sector lags (like technology) other sectors come along (like energy, banks, or industrials) that continue the rally, so the S&amp;P stays on mostly an upward trajectory.</p><p>But now, everything is going up.</p><p>&#34;The net of it all is that against the drop-dead good technical numbers, it has been hard to lose money, at least a lot, but not all that easy to make money,&#34; Frank Gretz from Wellington Shields said in a note to clients, noting that when everything is up, it's hard to make money as a trader rotating in and out of stocks: &#34;Now the only thing running consistently is the S&amp;P 500.&#34;</p><p>That sounds like an odd problem to have: we're running out of places to rotate into. But for active traders, it's a serious issue.</p><p>&#34;There's no Covid discount anymore,&#34; Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, told me. &#34;There's no obvious sector where it looks like the rest of the market has ignored the space. I'm not sure if we should just be 50% in cash and just figure out what gets mispriced in the next week or two.&#34;</p></div><h2><a id="headline1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a>Earnings will be the big test</h2><div><p>The market is now facing a very large group of stocks — not just technology names — that are rising fast and that have expectations that earnings are going to be rising fast. And that may be where the resistance starts.</p><p>&#34;Most companies are not reacting well to earnings,&#34; Alec Young, chief investment officer at Tactical Alpha, told me, noting that bank stocks barely budged last week despite reporting profits well above expectations. &#34;Stocks are running well going into earnings. What's not clear to me is whether they can maintain momentum once the earnings have been reported.&#34;</p></div><h2><a id="headline2" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"></a>The Fed problem is going to return</h2><div><p>Then there's the Fed problem — with economic growth well above expectations, it's only a matter of time before the Fed becomes an issue, as it was in February.</p><p>&#34;Investors want it both ways — they want strong growth but they don't want the Fed to taper [buying bonds],&#34; Young said. &#34;The Fed is not going to sit on their hands with this kind of growth, they're going to have to at least taper&#34; sometime later this year, Young said.</p><p>Tchir agrees, noting that prices have moved so fast it's likely something is going to give.</p><p>&#34;We have priced in great economic growth, moderate inflation, and a belief that yields are under control,&#34; Peter Tchir said, noting that recent reports that the Japanese have been buying U.S. bonds have helped drive down bond yields. &#34;If one of those legs give way, we are going to have a pullback.&#34;</p></div><div id="ArticleBody-MobileAdhesion"></div>

<p>It sounds like an odd problem to have: we're running out of places to rotate into. But for active traders, it's a serious issue.</p>

股票上涨，但交易员赚钱的时间越来越困难