<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<h2 style="text-align: left"><strong>热点速评</strong></h2>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<p><strong>事件</strong></p>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
<section>
<section>据新华社 [1]，国务院总理李克强 11 月 22 日主持召开国务院常务会议，提到 “适时适度运用降准等货币政策工具，保持流动性合理充裕”，超出市场预期。2022 年 11 月 21 日，人民银行、银保监会联合召开全国性商业银行信贷工作座谈会 [2]。</section>
</section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<p><strong>评论</strong></p>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong><span>降准预期再起，支持信贷发力。</span></strong>信贷工作座谈会强调 “主动靠前发力”“扩大中长期贷款投放，推动加快形成更多实物工作量”，政策信号明确。今年 5 月、8 月两次信贷座谈会召开后，当月贷款投放量均明显超出市场预期，我们预计 11-12 月也有望实现信贷同比多增。我们认为此次国常会提及降准旨在配合支持年底信贷发力，缓解近期流动性波动带来的干扰。我们预计降准幅度 0.25-0.50ppt，落地时间可能在 12 月上旬，释放资金 5000-10000 亿元，不排除部分置换 12 月 16 日到期的 5000 亿元 MLF。近期信贷重点支持的领域可能包括房地产、基建、制造业、设备更新、小微企业等。</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span>普惠小微存量利率有望下调。</span></strong>2022 年 9 月新发放普惠小微贷款利率 4.72%，相比 2021 年底下行 38bps，相比 2019 年底已下行近 200bps，下行速度较快。国常会提到 “引导银行对普惠小微存量贷款适度让利”，我们认为可能的方式是通过降低存量小微企业贷款利率 10-20bps，减轻小微企业利息负担，特别是较早的借款，降低近期疫情对还款压力的影响。降息方式的选择上，除了通过 LPR 下调之外，还可能通过银行直接调整存量利率的方式实现。</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span>不排除新一轮按揭降息可能性。</span></strong>截至 11 月新发放首套住房按揭平均利率 4.09%，相比 5 年 LPR 下浮 21bps，其中部分满足 9 月底人民银行阶段性放松政策条件的城市已下浮超过 20bps。10-11 月首套利率下行幅度放缓（单月 3bps），二套利率连续两个月持平，当前按揭利率已基本耗尽了现有政策空间，并且由于阶段性利率放松政策截至 2022 年年底，2023 年后将恢复原利率，因此为了保持对房地产市场的刺激力度，不排除新一轮按揭降息。具体方式可能包括：1）5 年 LPR 下调；2）进一步放宽新发放按揭利率不低于 5 年 LPR 下浮 20bps 的下限。此外，今年居民提前还贷较多，主要由于存量按揭利率偏高（约 5%）而年资产回报率偏低（定期存款利率约 3%），不排除通过直接降低存量按揭利率的方式减轻居民利率负担，减少提前还贷。</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span>降准降息对银行息差综合影响较小。</span></strong>根据我们的测算，假设降低存款准备金率 0.25ppt，我们预计对上市银行 2023 年净息差/净利润影响分别为 +0.4bps/+0.3%；假设按揭贷款存量利率下调 10bps，对上市银行 2023 年净息差/净利润影响分别为-1.4bps/-1.3%；假设普惠小微存量贷款利率下调 10bps，我们预计对上市银行 2023 年净息差/净利润影响分别为-0.5bps/-0.5%。综合来看，降准降息对银行净息差和净利润的影响较小，我们预计 2023 年净息差收窄幅度可能为 10-15bps，与 2022 年接近，重定价压力可能集中在明年一季度。</p>
<p> </p>
<p><strong><span>稳增长 “空中加油”，银行估值继续修复。</span></strong>向前看，稳增长政策继续加码、金融支持房地产行业能够改善资产质量预期，降息对息差的压力较小。</p>
</section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<section>
<p><strong>风险</strong></p>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
</section>
<section>
<p>疫情影响经济，房地产销售持续低迷。</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 1:2022 年信贷季节性波动明显大于往年</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxicHwdfaWUdaSfDBHVFUOib07p6mU5acKkSnLgSMha1QpZ1bicnKp4MvDA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="627" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxicHwdfaWUdaSfDBHVFUOib07p6mU5acKkSnLgSMha1QpZ1bicnKp4MvDA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 2:4Q21 以来开启降准降息周期</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxz2JZ16DxzwsVNyxEJN1tZVkQXARVYicwYecmS4doiahVx1NpjYwlwEyA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="635" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxz2JZ16DxzwsVNyxEJN1tZVkQXARVYicwYecmS4doiahVx1NpjYwlwEyA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 3:2022 年初至今已降准 25bps，1 年/5 年 LPR 下调 15/35bps</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxtl3aGg9XJfCzHjsWnyR0nHCrUiav3SRmr8FeuCghwCia2m6w8PBvNsYg/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="877" height="787" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxtl3aGg9XJfCzHjsWnyR0nHCrUiav3SRmr8FeuCghwCia2m6w8PBvNsYg/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 4:2022 年 11 月流动性阶段性收紧后近期有所缓解</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIx1TOjibuZ7MnjzY92QYvC0Udln2AfuVDXDkWh8PvFMg4ECqryUHib0X4g/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="622" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIx1TOjibuZ7MnjzY92QYvC0Udln2AfuVDXDkWh8PvFMg4ECqryUHib0X4g/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 5：历史上四次 “流动性拐点” 一般位于社融增速较高或者上升趋势明显的阶段</strong></p>
</section>
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<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxmn5atXpQ2icribZT1yFrmnXjVpzn979bhammQGXNrZKVtVtI7O1RLkPQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="663" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxmn5atXpQ2icribZT1yFrmnXjVpzn979bhammQGXNrZKVtVtI7O1RLkPQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 6:11 月首套住房按揭贷款利率继续下降，二套房利率已连续两个月持平</strong></p>
</section>
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<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxDpI5UiagrZJP7UicAnCBdIiaseoFSZAkNUoDoB25d2r2WvQGrbT6vQepA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="649" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxDpI5UiagrZJP7UicAnCBdIiaseoFSZAkNUoDoB25d2r2WvQGrbT6vQepA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 7：住房按揭贷款利率已降至历史最低</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfyDYBayZcxh3VhA5cL0VYEibaWWmjWL0KnsRjicoTP1degSJBZnGBEKibtIleI0bwibFv0qbKBia1hZ8iaA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="627" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfyDYBayZcxh3VhA5cL0VYEibaWWmjWL0KnsRjicoTP1degSJBZnGBEKibtIleI0bwibFv0qbKBia1hZ8iaA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 8:2022 年居民提前偿还房贷情况增加</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfyDYBayZcxh3VhA5cL0VYEib0OIjxjEYuUponoicwUgF68nSnIGekPLibKXzicglJib6hxDHPrxE5H2wBQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="648" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfyDYBayZcxh3VhA5cL0VYEib0OIjxjEYuUponoicwUgF68nSnIGekPLibKXzicglJib6hxDHPrxE5H2wBQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 9:1H22 存量零售贷款利率为 5.75%，其中按揭贷款存量利率约为 5% 左右</strong></p>
</section>
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<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxHazgGwib360sZxWXSD4teUU0Q1B6Dkff04dYjL6tRv7EFXFicJXekCiag/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="639" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxHazgGwib360sZxWXSD4teUU0Q1B6Dkff04dYjL6tRv7EFXFicJXekCiag/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 10：今年定期存款回报率约为 3%，高于理财、货币基金、股票和房地产</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxewYNsep5CNDZ2zBL2zGogOpMe5xfvyQXfYhVbRuw4jUd8wPZDia1dWw/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="648" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxewYNsep5CNDZ2zBL2zGogOpMe5xfvyQXfYhVbRuw4jUd8wPZDia1dWw/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 11:3Q22 新发放企业贷款利率下降 16bps</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxPo3V1hhCqyy0v4ZmUkbzWFZzYiahuP9hjeSxDfBwc10CPq7KIHAexCQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="700" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxPo3V1hhCqyy0v4ZmUkbzWFZzYiahuP9hjeSxDfBwc10CPq7KIHAexCQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 12:3Q22 新发放普惠小微贷款利率下降 10bps</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxibyVpUnL13f3UtMgbZUHRKMCibAZBUiandrFvGglrZIvpfy8ytEKv2ukQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="713" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxibyVpUnL13f3UtMgbZUHRKMCibAZBUiandrFvGglrZIvpfy8ytEKv2ukQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 13:9 月一般贷款利率和按揭贷款利率分别相比 6 月下降 11/28bps，三季度息差环比二季度持平</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<section><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxgKlrsVzpiajysutFN0NXyLyfoDxfNwE3CuiauwSUXubevwSq6NX45eFQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="651" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/Nia0IcTBEcfz8eVT1A00spYOshOGpxyIxgKlrsVzpiajysutFN0NXyLyfoDxfNwE3CuiauwSUXubevwSq6NX45eFQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></section>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 14：假设降准 0.25ppt，我们预计正向贡献上市银行净息差/净利润 0.4bps/0.3%</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjdVL04xh0hcaKNfk44MJy0AT3IDpibPpvEs5TR1RKDt5YjQvibhuT1jzg/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="490" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjdVL04xh0hcaKNfk44MJy0AT3IDpibPpvEs5TR1RKDt5YjQvibhuT1jzg/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></p>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 15：假设存量按揭贷款利率下调 10bps，我们预计影响上市银行净息差/净利润-1.4bps/-1.3%</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjC9Yf1FJoEd1ECm0ZKP4w0CMicuJrdF1uWmF9yyfQyg1iaICdaatGojPA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="510" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjC9Yf1FJoEd1ECm0ZKP4w0CMicuJrdF1uWmF9yyfQyg1iaICdaatGojPA/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></p>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section>
<p><strong>图表 16：假设普惠小微贷款存量利率下调 10bps，我们预计影响上市银行净息差/净利润-0.5bps/-0.5%</strong></p>
</section>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<p style="text-align: center"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjXNj6EhM6avAqmjjMsmtzUUddYHuw9Ydia0y7aS3sAHgU1icQ1FjJu1BQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="1080" height="423" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://mmbiz-qpic.wallstcn.com/mmbiz_png/fzHRVN3sYsicUKrXX5vzEv0GTEdT3RicgjXNj6EhM6avAqmjjMsmtzUUddYHuw9Ydia0y7aS3sAHgU1icQ1FjJu1BQ/640/query-d3hfZm10PXBuZw"/></p>
<section>
<section></section>
</section>
<section>
<p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p>
<p> </p>
</section>
<section></section>
</section>
<p style="color: #8d9bad"><span style="color: #808080">本文作者：中金林英奇、许鸿明，来源：中金货币金融研究，原文标题：《中金：降准降息预期再起》</span></p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>
          <div>
            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。
          </div>

<p>中金预计，12 月将释放资金 5000-10000 亿元，不排除部分置换 12 月 16 日到期的 5000 亿元 MLF。近期信贷重点支持的领域可能包括房地产、基建、制造业、设备更新、小微企业等。</p>

中金：预计降准幅度 0.25-0.50ppt，落地时间可能在 12 月上旬