$ONDS - Deep Dive

Most tech stories start with ambition. Few start with execution. Ondas -$ONDS is already in the latter category.

Ondas is far from a generic “drone stock.” It’s a systems company, combining autonomous robotics, defense sensing, counter-drone technologies, and private wireless infrastructure, into a unified platform.

This isn’t aspiration. This is visible build-out.

A transformation already underway

In 2025, Ondas launched a full operational transformation.

Not a pivot. Not a vision reset. An execution shift.

According to its January 2026 Investor Day, Ondas evolved its autonomous systems business into a multi-domain “system of systems” platform, spanning air, ground, sensing, communications, and command-and-control

This matters because defense and security buyers don’t procure single products anymore.

They procure integrated capability.

Proof shows up in the numbers first

Execution shows up in results before it shows up in valuation.

Ondas delivered:

• FY 2025 revenue up ~576% YoY;
• Q4 2025 revenue up ~578% YoY;
• Backlog expanded to ~$65.3M, up ~180% in a matter of months;
• Improved backlog quality and multi-year visibility supporting a sharply higher 2026 outlook;
• Revenue goal of $170 - $180 million for 2026;

This is not early experimentation.

This is a business that has crossed into commercial deployment.

Revenue growth over the years

2026 Growth

2026 is an inflection year

• Ondas raised its 2026 revenue target to $170–180M, up from a prior $140M target, driven by:
• Strong adoption in counter-UAS (C-UAS), ISR, and UGV platforms;
• Large multi-year programs under pursuit;
• Government-to-government and allied nation demand;
• A growing pipeline of strategic acquisitions;

Potential parnters - growth

Capital is no longer a constraint

Execution at this level requires capital.

Ondas has it.

As of Q4 2025, Ondas reported:

• ~$1.5B in pro-forma cash
• Potential ~$4.9B additional capital from out-of-the-money warrants
• A balance sheet positioned as a competitive advantage in a capital-constrained defense sector

This changes everything.

Well-funded vendors win contracts. Well-funded platforms attract partners. Well-funded operators consolidate markets.

Ondas explicitly plans to use capital offensively, to scale production, accelerate acquisitions, and capture market share.

A system, not a product company

Ondas is not building isolated technologies.

It is assembling a multi-layered autonomy stack, integrating:

• Autonomous aerial systems (UAS);
• Counter-drone (C-UAS) solutions with soft-kill and hard-kill capabilities;
• Combat-proven ground robotics (UGVs);
• Sensors, payloads, AI, and unified command-and-control;

This “system of systems” approach enables:

• Larger contract sizes;
• Cross-selling across domains;
• Recurring lifecycle revenue;
• Faster customer expansion once deployed;

That’s how platforms scale.

The market opportunity is not small

Ondas estimates:

• ~$117B global TAM across C-UAS, UAS, and UGV markets
• ~$7.5B serviceable available market (SAM) in near-term focus segments

These markets are entering steep adoption curves, driven by:

• Modern conflict realities
• Border and infrastructure security
• Government demand for autonomous, scalable solutions

Importantly, Ondas is already participating in national-level, multi-year programs with expansion potential into allied nations.

The path to profitability is defined

Ondas laid out a clear operating roadmap:

• Product companies targeting EBITDA-positive by Q3 2026;
• OAS platform EBITDA-positive by Q3 2027;
• Parent company EBITDA-positive by Q1 2028;
• Long-term target of ~30% EBITDA margins at scale;

This is not “eventual profitability.”

It’s a sequenced plan. Now continued execution is needed.

The quiet conclusion

Ondas is no longer asking the market to believe.

It’s asking the market to observe.

• Revenue is accelerating;
• Backlog is expanding;
• Capital is secured;
• Scale is planned;
• Execution is visible;

This is what it looks like before a sector consolidates around its leaders.

The companies that emerge don’t do so loudly.

They do so by building faster than valuation can keep up.

Ondas is already in that phase.

The Technical Outlook

$ONDS- Monthly Timeframe

On the monthly timeframe,$ONDS continues to show strong structural momentum. The trend is supported by double Blue Diamonds, confirming higher-timeframe strength following the major breakout in 2025.

For continuation, price needs to reclaim this month’s high, which would invalidate the stacked topping signal and restore control to the primary trend. On the lower timeframes, price action should be watched for constructive basing, rather than acceleration, while the higher timeframe structure remains intact.