Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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2025

12月24

CME Predicts Fed Rate Probability for Next Year

According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.0%.

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昨日 08:16

12月23

Fed's overnight reverse repo usage scaled up to $58.93 trillion

On Tuesday, December 23, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) surged to $58.93 trillion, up from $15.23 trillion the previous trading day.

12月22

Fed Official Warns of Recession Risk if Rates Aren't Cut Further Next Year

Fed Governor Milan warns that not continuing rate cuts next year could increase recession risks, citing rising unemployment and poor job data. He advocates for a more dovish stance, despite internal Fed disagreements on future policy paths.

Fed's January rate cut probability falls to 19.9%

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January has fallen to 19.9%, with an 80.1% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Fed Paid Banks $186.5 Billion in Reserve Interest Last Year

The Federal Reserve paid $186.5 billion in interest on reserves to banks last year, setting a historical record.

Fed Proposes Limited Access Payment Accounts and Seeks Public Feedback

The Federal Reserve is seeking public feedback on a proposed limited-access payment account that would allow certain institutions to use Fed payment systems without full master account privileges. These accounts aim to support innovation and protect payment system security but will have balance limits, no interest, and no credit services.

12月20

CME Releases Fed Interest Rate Cut Probability for January Next Year

According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, as of December 21, 2025, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 77.9%.

12月19

Fed accepts $3.047 billion in fixed-rate reverse repo operation

The Federal Reserve conducted a reverse repo operation totaling $3.047 billion with 12 counterparties.

Fed's Overnight Reverse Repo Usage Declines

On December 19, the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo agreements fell to $3.047 billion from $11.708 billion the previous trading day.

Fed Considers Setting Up Limited Payment Accounts to Support Innovation

The Federal Reserve announced plans to seek feedback on establishing limited 'payment accounts' for certain financial institutions. These accounts would allow access to Fed payment services for clearing and settlement but would not offer broader banking privileges. The initiative aims to support innovation while safeguarding the payment system.

Williams Says No Urgent Need for Further Rate Adjustments

New York Fed President John Williams stated there's no urgency to further adjust interest rates, as current monetary policy is well-positioned. Despite recent employment and inflation data not altering the economic outlook, the Fed remains uncertain about future rate cuts. Officials expect only one more rate cut in 2026. Williams emphasized that inflation is moving towards the 2% target and the labor market is gradually cooling, aligning with expectations of an 'orderly slowdown' in the economy.

Fed's Three Rate Cuts Lead to Decline in USD Deposit Rates

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times in 2025, leading to a decline in U.S. dollar deposit rates, which are further diluted by the appreciation of the RMB. Most domestic banks' dollar deposit rates have fallen below 3%, with some banks still offering high-interest products. Industry experts expect further declines in dollar deposit rates, advising investors to be cautious of dual risks from exchange and interest rate fluctuations.

12月18

Fed's Reserve Balances Drop to $2.93 Trillion

The Federal Reserve's reserve balance fell to $2.93 trillion as of the week ending December 17, marking a decrease of $40.1 billion from the previous week and reaching the lowest level since December 3 of this year.

Fed's Discount Window Borrowing Rises to $887 Million

The Federal Reserve's discount window loan balance rose to $8.87 billion for the week ending December 16, up from $8.34 billion the previous week.

Fed Expected to Cut Rates by an Additional 3 BPs by End-2026

The Federal Reserve's interest rate swaps indicate an additional rate cut of 3 basis points by the end of 2026.

Market Expectations for Fed's Interest Rate Policy Before CPI Release

Before the CPI release, CME's FedWatch indicates a 26.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January, with a 73.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 45.8%, with a 43.2% chance of no change, and a 10.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Fed Withdraws Guidance on Novel Crypto Activities

The Fed withdrew guidance that blocked banks from experimenting with 'novel' crypto-related activities, like issuing stablecoins. This marks a shift in the U.S. regulatory environment, reflecting changes in risk perception and expanding regulatory space for state member banks without deposit insurance to apply for crypto business.

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18/12/2025 09:18

12月16

Fed accepts $1.54 billion in fixed-rate reverse repurchase

The Federal Reserve accepted $1.554 billion from two counterparties in its fixed-rate reverse repo operation.

12月15

Williams Says Fed Rate Cuts Aim to Balance Job and Inflation Dual Mandate

Federal Reserve official Williams has stated that the central bank's approach to interest rate cuts is designed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation.

Fed Official Explains Treasury Purchases Are Not QE

Fed Governor Milan stated that the Fed's continued Treasury purchases are not quantitative easing (QE) and will continue to shift some risks to the private market.