Federal Reserve

Fed-related news tracking

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事件

重要度篩選

2026

4月09

Fed officials express concerns over Middle East conflict's impact on US economy

The Federal Reserve's March meeting minutes reveal deep concerns over the Middle East conflict's negative impacts on the US economy, including growth, inflation, and employment. Officials are divided, creating "two-way risks": some fear persistent inflation from rising oil prices may necessitate rate hikes, while others worry a prolonged conflict could weaken the labor market, requiring rate cuts. Most officials agree that progress on the 2% inflation goal has slowed and upside risks have increased. For now, the Fed remains on hold, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% while acknowledging that policy flexibility is crucial amid high uncertainty.

3 家來源

7 小時前

4月08

FOMC Minutes Discuss Potential Future Rate Cuts and Inflation Concerns

The FOMC minutes from the March meeting indicate that while a future rate cut is possible if inflation subsides, officials are increasingly concerned about elevated inflation. Discussions revealed two distinct scenarios: one justifying rate cuts due to economic growth concerns, and another potentially requiring rate hikes to combat inflation, which is being exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. The Fed maintained its rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a near-unanimous vote, with Chair Powell adopting a hawkish stance, stating no cuts would be considered without clear progress on inflation, particularly regarding tariff impacts. Market expectations for cuts have been pushed back to September or later.

8 家來源包括 Reuters

昨日 02:40

4月02

FOMC and ECB Hold Important Meetings and IMF Spring Conference

A calendar of upcoming economic events highlights meetings by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and the IMF Spring Meetings. Recent central bank meetings in March were dominated by the impact of rising oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East. At its March 17-18 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% after six previous cuts, while upwardly revising growth and inflation forecasts. In contrast, the ECB also held rates steady but adopted a more hawkish tone, raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% due to energy price risks. This has led to expectations of policy divergence, with analysts predicting ECB hikes while the Fed remains on hold.

3月30

Fed Official Proposes Reducing Balance Sheet and Using Rate Cuts as a Hedge

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has proposed shrinking the Fed's oversized balance sheet, suggesting a reduction of $1-2 trillion over several years. He stated that the contractionary economic effects of this balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) could be offset by cutting the federal funds rate. Miran, who has consistently advocated for easing, believes the current policy is too restrictive and has suggested rate cuts of up to one percentage point within a year to return to a neutral level. He emphasized the process must be slow and gradual to avoid market disruption and restore future policy flexibility.

3月25

Fed's 2021 Policies Failed to Address Surge in Demand During Supply Shortages

A recent analysis posits that in 2021, the Federal Reserve failed to address a surge in demand during a supply shortage, allegedly focusing on other frameworks like DEI instead . This occurred as officials acknowledged that fiscal stimulus and supply chain issues were potential inflation catalysts , but maintained accommodative policy due to employment gaps . The critique suggests the Fed's demand-side tools were mismatched for the supply-side problem , leading to a subsequent, severe overcorrection that harmed the economy .

3月19

Fed revises Basel III proposal

The Federal Reserve's revised "Basel III Endgame" proposal will increase capital adequacy ratios for large banks by 1.4%, a significant reduction from earlier, more stringent drafts that faced intense industry backlash. The new rules, expected by the end of March, aim to encourage lending, streamline risk-based capital calculations, and adjust the G-SIB surcharge. For many large banks, capital requirements are now expected to remain flat or decrease slightly, potentially freeing up billions in capital. The proposal also includes considerations for revising the high-risk weighting currently applied to assets like Bitcoin.

3月18

Fed Holds Rates Steady and Projects One Rate Cut This Year

The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with expectations, but now projects only one rate cut for 2026. This decision is influenced by persistent inflation and economic uncertainty stemming from the conflict in Iran, which has caused a nearly 50% surge in Brent crude oil prices since late February. Consequently, the Fed has raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 2.7% and its GDP growth forecast to 2.4%. Diverging views among officials were noted, with one projecting a rate hike next year, a first in over two years.

6 家來源

19/03/2026 02:06

Fed Maintains Benchmark Rate at 3.50%-3.75%

The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range for the second consecutive time, a move that was in line with market expectations. The decision is largely attributed to uncertainty and inflation concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict and rising energy prices. In response, markets have significantly reduced bets on rate cuts for 2026, with some analysts pushing forecasts for an initial cut from June to September and lowering the total expected easing for the year. Other central banks, like those in Hong Kong and the UAE, have followed suit by holding their rates steady.

3月17

CME predicts Fed will keep rates unchanged

The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a near-unanimous market expectation for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates this week, with a probability of 98.9%. The chance of a rate cut is negligible for March and remains low for April, but the probability of a cumulative cut rises significantly to 78.1% by the June meeting. Experts cite ongoing Middle East tensions, inflation pressures, and a weakening job market as reasons for the Fed to remain on hold, a stance supported by hawkish commentary from Fed officials.

5 家來源

18/03/2026 06:25

3月12

Fed to vote on revised capital rules

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman announced that revised capital rules will be voted on in the coming weeks, resulting in a 'small amount' reduction in capital requirements for large banks. This move is seen as a significant policy win for Wall Street, reversing a previous 2023 proposal that suggested much stricter requirements. The revisions aim to better align capital with actual risks and eliminate overlapping standards. Morgan Stanley noted large banks hold substantial excess capital that could now be deployed for lending and share buybacks once the rules are finalized.

3月06

Market sees Fed rate cut probability in June reaching around 50% due to poor jobs and soaring oil prices

Market pricing for a June Federal Reserve rate cut has rebounded to approximately 50% following a disappointing jobs report that indicated a loss of jobs. This marks a sharp reversal from earlier in the week, when the probability had dropped to as low as 35% due to soaring oil prices stemming from conflict in the Middle East. Traders are now navigating conflicting signals: a potentially weakening labor market that argues for a cut, versus a persistent oil-driven inflation risk that argues for holding rates steady.

2月18

FOMC Meeting Minutes Discuss Inflation and Interest Rate Policies

The January Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal division, with officials expressing renewed concerns about inflation. While rates were held at 3.5%-3.75%, several officials discussed the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target. Most members warned that the path to lower inflation could be slow and uneven, advocating for patience before considering rate cuts. The policy focus has shifted back towards inflation risks, with the vote to hold rates passing 10-2. Consequently, traders have pushed back expectations for the first rate cut, possibly to June.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Show Support for January Rate Pause and Consideration for Cuts

The January Fed meeting minutes revealed that while almost all officials supported pausing rate actions, there was significant internal division on the future path of interest rates. Some members indicated that rate cuts could be appropriate later in the year if inflation declines as expected. However, a more dominant theme was caution, with several officials expressing concern about persistent inflation risks and warning that further rate hikes might be necessary if inflation remains high. The committee decided to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, marking a "hawkish pause" after three consecutive cuts. The market has subsequently pushed back expectations for rate cuts.

2月14

Fed March Rate Cut Probability Low, Odds of Maintaining Rates High

According to CME "FedWatch" data as of February 14, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at its March meeting is 90.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 9.2%. This marks a significant shift from a week prior, on February 8, when the probability of a March cut was 23.2%. The Fed had previously signaled a pause in its rate-cutting cycle at its January meeting, holding the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts. Officials have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with future moves contingent on changes in inflation and the labor market.

2月13

Market expects inflation to slow, with the Fed expected to cut rates twice, pushing Treasury yields to this year's lows

Following a lower-than-expected January CPI report, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have solidified, with investors now betting on at least two cuts in 2026 and a rising probability of a third. The U.S. headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% forecast, while the core CPI met expectations at 2.5%. This has driven U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest levels of the year, as the market prices in a more dovish Fed stance. Analysts at firms like Jefferies and Goldman Sachs had already been forecasting two cuts, with some noting the potential for three if the economy slows as predicted.

2月11

Fed Eases Capital Requirements for Banks

The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a relaxation of bank capital requirements, planning to drop certain non-public remedial warnings and continuing a broader easing of financial institution oversight under Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman. Specifically, examiners will re-evaluate outstanding warnings and rescind those not aligned with current priorities, focusing instead on immediate risks to banks' financial health. Furthermore, the Fed has decided to maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress test cycle, delaying revisions to stress capital buffers until 2027 to allow for a review of its testing models.

5 家來源包括 Reuters

12/02/2026 02:19

2月09

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in March with 82.3% Probability

According to CME FedWatch data as of February 10-11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range in its March meeting is estimated to be between 78.4% and 82.3%. This follows the Fed's decision to hold rates steady in January, where the committee noted a 'solid' expansion but saw two members dissent in favor of a 25 basis point cut. Market expectations have been volatile, with the probability of a March cut rising from 9% on February 4 to over 21% by February 11. The consensus is now pointing towards a potential first cut around the June meeting.

2月08

Fed Maintains Rates Unchanged in March at 80.1% Probability

According to CME FedWatch data, as of February 9th, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is 80.1%, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut at 19.9%. This reflects a shift from early February when the probability of a hold was as high as 91%. The Fed's January meeting ended a series of three consecutive rate cuts, with the committee holding rates at 3.5%-3.75% and describing economic activity as a "solid expansion" while inflation remains "elevated". Most analysts now expect the Fed to wait until at least June before considering any rate adjustments.

2月05

Fed rate cut expectations cool, dollar strength presses Asian currencies

Expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate cut are diminishing, causing the US dollar to strengthen and exert pressure on Asian currencies. A recent CIMB report highlighted the Singapore dollar's weakening against the USD, attributing it to market anticipation of a Fed pause on rate cuts. This sentiment is reinforced by cautious statements on inflation from Fed officials like Governor Cook. The Fed's decision on January 29 to hold rates steady, the first such pause since September 2025, and the nomination of the reputedly hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair have significantly contributed to this shift, leading to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in Asian markets.

6 家來源包括券商中国

05/02/2026 11:23

2月04

Fed Maintains Large Banks' Capital Levels and Plans to Revise Stress Capital Buffers in 2027

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will maintain current capital levels for large banks through the 2026 stress testing cycle, delaying revisions to the stress capital buffer (SCB) until 2027. The stated reason for the delay is to allow the Fed more time to review its testing models for potential flaws and enhance transparency, following a public feedback period.

3 家來源包括 Reuters

05/02/2026 05:30