<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（NASDAQ：<strong>AMZN</strong>）目前接近歷史高位，但如果你擔心這是亞馬遜股票逆轉的前奏，那就想錯了。沒有必要認為股價已經觸頂。</p>
<p>儘管存在各種不確定性，但當前的牛市似乎有望繼續。除非出現意外的市場調整或黑天鵝事件，整個市場的穩步上漲將繼續推動亞馬遜股價上漲。</p>
<p>更重要的是，針對這家電商和雲計算巨頭的公司特定催化劑可能有助於推動股價在未來十二個月內大幅飆升。</p>
<p>我在談論股價將上漲至 200 美元，然後 225 美元，甚至可能在 2025 年達到 250 美元。</p>
<p>有趣的是，這種上漲很可能不是由人工智能或其他增長趨勢驅動的，而是由另一個積極因素推動，這個因素在亞馬遜身上已經存在了相當長的時間。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜股票：阻力和波動不會沉沒這艘船</h2>
<p>是的，最近關於亞馬遜股價觸頂的擔憂不僅僅是技術層面的。表面上，最近的頭條新聞表明阻力，或者至少是波動，正在出現，這可能會影響未來的運營結果。</p>
<p>如果這些因素影響未來幾個季度的財務表現，理論上可能會對亞馬遜股票的未來表現產生負面影響。</p>
<p>那麼，有哪些新出現的阻力和波動？這裏有一個來自電商領域的很好例子：亞馬遜倉庫工人可能進一步組成工會。</p>
<p>到目前為止，只有紐約州史泰登島的一個亞馬遜設施組建了工會。然而，曾經獨立代表該設施倉庫工人的工會剛剛加入國際兄弟會。</p>
<p>這可能標誌着兄弟會加大努力，組織其他設施的工人。</p>
<p>更重要的是，對於亞馬遜的雲計算部門亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS），人們開始擔心這個公司的搖錢樹部門的利潤率下降。</p>
<p>最近，貝爾德分析師科林·塞巴斯蒂安認為，更高的人工智能相關支出可能導致今年晚些時候利潤率收縮。儘管存在一些挑戰，但不要指望它們會沉沒這艘船。很可能它們將被以下積極因素所抵消。</p>
<h2>仍在 “兑現支票”</h2>
<p>我曾經認為，亞馬遜股票的一個主要催化劑是公司努力減緩增長速度。這導致了利潤能力的顯著提高。</p>
<p>過去，亞馬遜優先考慮擴大這一部門的規模，而不是將其以最大化的利潤率運營。</p>
<p>當然，作為零售業的主導者，不僅僅是我預計公司將 “兑現支票”，提高電商的利潤率。</p>
<p>正如美國銀行的分析師最近所説，亞馬遜的零售利潤率正在擴大。儘管對 AWS 利潤率持悲觀態度，前述的貝爾德分析師對亞馬遜零售業務的利潤率擴張持樂觀態度。</p>
<p>據塞巴斯蒂安稱，亞馬遜的北美零售業務的利潤率可能在 2027 年上升至 10%，而 2023 年為 4%。該分析師還預計，亞馬遜的國際電商業務將持續盈利。</p>
<p>再加上公司利潤率最高的部門之一——廣告的增長，很容易看到未來幾個季度的業績達到甚至超過預期。</p>
<p>賣方預測顯示，今年亞馬遜的盈利將增長 18.3%，最高預測將使每股收益（<strong>EPS</strong>）接近 7 美元。2026 年的預測顯示更高的增長。</p>
<h2>結論：AMZN 仍然處於買入區間</h2>
<p>亞馬遜股票可能繼續飆升，而無需過分依賴多重擴張。唯一需要的是業績超出預期，或者分析師上調他們對 2025 年和 2026 年的預測。</p>
<p>換句話説，僅僅通過與增加的收益同步，亞馬遜股票就可以實現從 200 美元到 225 美元到 250 美元的飛躍。如果你今天入場，這將代表總體約 32.2% 的漲幅。</p>
<p>在更長的時間範圍內，亞馬遜可能會保持領先地位。除了 “兑現支票” 利潤率擴張的催化劑外，公司努力利用生成式人工智能增長熱潮帶來的潛在回報也有助於推動發展。</p>
<p>綜合考慮，結論很明確。今天每股價格接近 190 美元的亞馬遜股票仍然處於買入區間。</p>
<p><em>在發佈日期，Thomas Niel 沒有持有（直接或間接）本文提到的證券中的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點屬於作者本人，受到 InvestorPlace.com</em> _發佈指南_的約束。</p>
<p>InvestorPlace.com 的撰稿人 Thomas Niel 自 2016 年以來一直為基於網絡的出版物撰寫單支股票分析。</p>
<p>技術、人工智能、雲計算、消費者自由裁量權、零售、電子商務、通訊、媒體、流媒體</p>

瑞豐動力

<p>亞馬遜的股價預計將在 2025 年達到每股 250 美元，這要歸功於當前的牛市和公司特定的催化劑。儘管可能會面臨工會化和雲計算部門利潤率降低等潛在阻力，但預計亞馬遜的盈利能力將會改善。分析師們預計零售業務的利潤率將擴張，國際電商領域將保持穩定盈利。隨着強勁的盈利增長預期，亞馬遜股價可能會繼續上漲</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong> (NASDAQ: <strong>AMZN</strong>) is holding tight near all-time highs, yet if you’re concerned that this is the prelude to an Amazon stock reversal, think again. There’s no need to assume that shares are topping out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（NASDAQ：<strong>AMZN</strong>）目前接近歷史高位，但如果你擔心這是亞馬遜股票逆轉的前奏，那就想錯了。沒有必要認為股價已經觸頂。</p>
</div><p>Despite various uncertainties, the current bull market appears likely to continue. Barring an unforeseen market correction or black swan event, the broad market’s steady climb will keep AMZN climbing higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管存在各種不確定性，但當前的牛市似乎有望繼續。除非出現意外的市場調整或黑天鵝事件，整個市場的穩步上漲將繼續推動亞馬遜股價上漲。</p>
</div><p>That’s not all. Company-specific catalysts for this e-commerce and cloud computing giant could help to drive an outsized leap for shares over the next twelve months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，針對這家電商和雲計算巨頭的公司特定催化劑可能有助於推動股價在未來十二個月內大幅飆升。</p>
</div><p>I’m talking a move to $200, then $225, then perhaps even up to $250 per share by 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在談論股價將上漲至 200 美元，然後 225 美元，甚至可能在 2025 年達到 250 美元。</p>
</div><p>Interestingly enough, such a move higher will most likely be driven not by AI or some other growth trend, but by another positive factor that has been in motion with AMZN for quite some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有趣的是，這種上漲很可能不是由人工智能或其他增長趨勢驅動的，而是由另一個積極因素推動，這個因素在亞馬遜身上已經存在了相當長的時間。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon Stock: Headwinds and Hiccups Will Not Sink This Ship</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜股票：阻力和波動不會沉沒這艘船</h2>
</div><p>Yes, recent concerns about AMZN peaking in price go beyond just technicals. On the surface, recent headlines suggest headwinds, or at the very least hiccups, are emerging, which could affect operating results going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>是的，最近關於亞馬遜股價觸頂的擔憂不僅僅是技術層面的。表面上，最近的頭條新聞表明阻力，或者至少是波動，正在出現，這可能會影響未來的運營結果。</p>
</div><p>If these factors affect fiscal performance in the coming quarters, in theory it would likely have a negative impact on the future performance of Amazon stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這些因素影響未來幾個季度的財務表現，理論上可能會對亞馬遜股票的未來表現產生負面影響。</p>
</div><p>So, what are some emerging headwinds and hiccups? Here’s a good example from the e-commerce segment: possible further unionization of Amazon’s warehouse workers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，有哪些新出現的阻力和波動？這裏有一個來自電商領域的很好例子：亞馬遜倉庫工人可能進一步組成工會。</p>
</div><p>So far, only one Amazon facility, in Staten Island, New York, has unionized. However, the formerly-independent union representing warehouse workers at the facility has just affiliated with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，只有紐約州史泰登島的一個亞馬遜設施組建了工會。然而，曾經獨立代表該設施倉庫工人的工會剛剛加入國際兄弟會。</p>
</div><p>This could mark the start of ramped-up efforts by the Teamsters to organize workers at other facilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能標誌着兄弟會加大努力，組織其他設施的工人。</p>
</div><p>That’s not all. With Amazon Web Services, Amazon’s cloud computing unit, concerns are emerging about reduced margins for this cash cow segment for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，對於亞馬遜的雲計算部門亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS），人們開始擔心這個公司的搖錢樹部門的利潤率下降。</p>
</div><p>Recently, Baird analyst Colin Sebastian argued that higher AI-related expenses could lead to margin contraction later this year. That said, while there are some challenges, don’t expect them to sink this ship. Chances are they will be outweighed by the following positives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，貝爾德分析師科林·塞巴斯蒂安認為，更高的人工智能相關支出可能導致今年晚些時候利潤率收縮。儘管存在一些挑戰，但不要指望它們會沉沒這艘船。很可能它們將被以下積極因素所抵消。</p>
</div><h2>Still ‘Cashing the Check’</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>仍在 “兑現支票”</h2>
</div><p>Previously, I have argued that a major catalyst for Amazon stock has been the company’s efforts to take its foot off the growth gas pedal. This has resulted in outsized improvements in profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我曾經認為，亞馬遜股票的一個主要催化劑是公司努力減緩增長速度。這導致了利潤能力的顯著提高。</p>
</div><p>In the past, Amazon prioritized the scaling up of this segment over running it at maximized profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去，亞馬遜優先考慮擴大這一部門的規模，而不是將其以最大化的利潤率運營。</p>
</div><p>Still, of course, a dominant player in retailing, it’s not just me that expects the company’s to “cash the check,” raising margins at e-commerce in the process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，作為零售業的主導者，不僅僅是我預計公司將 “兑現支票”，提高電商的利潤率。</p>
</div><p>As analysts at BofA recently argued, retail margins at Amazon are expanding. While downbeat on AWS margins, the aforementioned Baird analyst is bullish about margin expansion with Amazon’s retail business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如美國銀行的分析師最近所説，亞馬遜的零售利潤率正在擴大。儘管對 AWS 利潤率持悲觀態度，前述的貝爾德分析師對亞馬遜零售業務的利潤率擴張持樂觀態度。</p>
</div><p>Per Sebastian, Amazon’s North American retail business could see its margin rise to 10% by 2027, up from 4% in 2023. The analyst also anticipates Amazon’s international e-commerce business becoming consistently profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據塞巴斯蒂安稱，亞馬遜的北美零售業務的利潤率可能在 2027 年上升至 10%，而 2023 年為 4%。該分析師還預計，亞馬遜的國際電商業務將持續盈利。</p>
</div><p>Add in growth from one of the company’s highest-margin segments, advertising, and it’s easy to see results meeting, if not beating, expectations in the quarters ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上公司利潤率最高的部門之一——廣告的增長，很容易看到未來幾個季度的業績達到甚至超過預期。</p>
</div><p>Sell-side forecasts call for Amazon’s earnings to rise by 18.3% this year, with the higher end of forecasts calling for earnings per share ( <strong>EPS</strong>) nearing $7. 2026 forecasts call for even higher growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賣方預測顯示，今年亞馬遜的盈利將增長 18.3%，最高預測將使每股收益（<strong>EPS</strong>）接近 7 美元。2026 年的預測顯示更高的增長。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line: AMZN Remains in the Buy Zone</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論：AMZN 仍然處於買入區間</h2>
</div><p>Amazon shares could keep on surging, without having to lean too heavily on multiple expansion. All that’s needed is for results to beat expectations, or for analysts to upwardly revise their 2025 and 2026 forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜股票可能繼續飆升，而無需過分依賴多重擴張。唯一需要的是業績超出預期，或者分析師上調他們對 2025 年和 2026 年的預測。</p>
</div><p>In other words, simply by moving in tandem with increased earnings, AMZN could make the $200 to $225 to $250 leap. This would represent a total of around 32.2%, if you were to enter a position today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，僅僅通過與增加的收益同步，亞馬遜股票就可以實現從 200 美元到 225 美元到 250 美元的飛躍。如果你今天入場，這將代表總體約 32.2% 的漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Over an even longer time frame, Amazon could stay an outperformer. Besides the “cash the check” margin expansion catalyst, the potential payoff from its efforts to capitalize on the generative artificial intelligence growth boom also stands to help move the needle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更長的時間範圍內，亞馬遜可能會保持領先地位。除了 “兑現支票” 利潤率擴張的催化劑外，公司努力利用生成式人工智能增長熱潮帶來的潛在回報也有助於推動發展。</p>
</div><p>Put it all together, and there is a clear verdict. At just under $190 per share today, Amazon stock remains in the buy zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合考慮，結論很明確。今天每股價格接近 190 美元的亞馬遜股票仍然處於買入區間。</p>
</div><p><em>On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com</em> <em>Publishing Guidelines</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>在發佈日期，Thomas Niel 沒有持有（直接或間接）本文提到的證券中的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點屬於作者本人，受到 InvestorPlace.com</em> _發佈指南_的約束。</p>
</div><p>Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>InvestorPlace.com 的撰稿人 Thomas Niel 自 2016 年以來一直為基於網絡的出版物撰寫單支股票分析。</p>
</div><p>Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, Consumer Discretionary, Retail, E-Commerce, Communications, Media, Streaming</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>技術、人工智能、雲計算、消費者自由裁量權、零售、電子商務、通訊、媒體、流媒體</p>
</div>

亞馬遜股票價格預測：探討 AMZN 在 2025 年達到 250 美元的路徑