<p><strong>墨式燒烤</strong>(CMG -0.52%) 股票在過去五年中上漲約 340%，而 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 上漲了 85%。這家快餐連鎖餐廳連續給投資者留下深刻印象，其強勁增長、持續擴張和不斷提高的利潤率備受讚譽。</p>
<p>如今，該股票可能看起來昂貴，市盈率達到了 57 倍，但通過四張簡單的圖表來看它的增長故事就足以判斷是否仍值得購買。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 持續開設餐廳</h2>
<p>與 <strong>麥當勞</strong> 不同，後者在 2006 年將墨式燒烤剝離，並大部分收入來自特許經營費用，墨式燒烤直接擁有並經營其所有餐廳。這種商業模式更需要資本投入，但它使公司能夠嚴格控制供應鏈，保持更好的質量控制措施，並在不依賴特許經營者的情況下自由擴張。</p>
<p>墨式燒烤的新餐廳開設速度比許多同行要快得多。其年末店鋪數量從 2018 年的 2,491 家增至 2023 年的 3,437 家，公司計劃今年開設 285 至 315 家新店。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
<h2>2. 令人印象深刻的同店銷售增長</h2>
<p>一些餐廳開設大量新店以提升銷售額，但隨後未能在成熟階段增長同店銷售額。因此，當一個餐廳連鎖企業具有正收入增長但同店銷售增長為負時，通常是一個警示信號。</p>
<p>墨式燒烤再次脱穎而出的領域之一就是這一點。除了每年開設新店外，其同店銷售額持續增長。這一關鍵行業指標甚至在 2020 年疫情爆發初期上升，得益於強勁的數字銷售，隨後在接下來的三年內繼續上升。管理層預計 2024 年同店銷售額將實現中高個位數增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
<h2>3. 擴大餐廳級別的運營利潤率</h2>
<p>過去兩年，餐飲行業面臨食品和勞動力成本上漲的嚴峻挑戰。但在 2020 年疫情期間下滑後，墨式燒烤的餐廳級別運營利潤率在接下來的三年內擴大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
<p>墨式燒烤通過提高菜單價格和開設更多的駛入式 Chipotlanes 來抵消通貨膨脹壓力，加速訂單量。公司預計今年將在超過 80% 的新店開設 Chipotlanes。</p>
<h2>4. 持續的營收和盈利增長</h2>
<p>墨式燒烤的新店開設、穩定的同店銷售增長和擴大的利潤率使其在過去五年中實現比麥當勞和 <strong>百勝中國</strong> 等主要快餐連鎖企業更強勁的營收和盈利增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png"/></p>
<p>來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>從 2023 年到 2026 年，分析師預計墨式燒烤的營收將以 14% 的複合年增長率增長，其每股收益將以 22% 的複合年增長率增加。這種增長將受益於數字訂單的擴張（在 2024 年第一季度佔總收入的 36.5%）、其忠誠計劃的粘性以及在歐洲的擴張。</p>
<p>相比之下，分析師預計麥當勞和百勝中國在同一時期的營收和盈利增長僅為個位數。</p>
<h2>現在是購買墨式燒烤的正確時機嗎？</h2>
<p>墨式燒烤的業務仍在全力運轉，但其許多增長已經融入了其估值中。麥當勞的市盈率僅為 21 倍，而百勝的前瞻倍數略高，為 23 倍。因此，墨式燒烤股票可能會經歷波動，特別是如果其同店銷售增長放緩或利潤率下降。</p>
<p>目前，投資者仍可在墨式燒烤股票上小幅投資，因為該公司正準備在 6 月 26 日進行 50 比 1 的股票分拆。然而，與其在當前水平全力以赴不如在幾個月或幾個季度內分批定投這一增長機會。</p>

墨式燒烤

<p>墨式燒烤（Chipotle Mexican Grill）的股票在過去五年中取得了顯著增長，這是由於持續的餐廳開業、令人印象深刻的同店銷售增長、擴大的利潤率以及強勁的營收和盈利增長所推動的。然而，該股票可能過於昂貴，並且可能會經歷波動。投資者可以考慮採用分批定投的方式逐步建倉該股，而不是一次性全部買入</p>

<p><strong>Chipotle Mexican Grill</strong>(CMG -0.52%) stock has rallied about 340% over the past five years as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> rose 85%. The fast-casual restaurant chain repeatedly impressed investors with its robust growth, consistent expansion, and rising margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>墨式燒烤</strong>(CMG -0.52%) 股票在過去五年中上漲約 340%，而 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 上漲了 85%。這家快餐連鎖餐廳連續給投資者留下深刻印象，其強勁增長、持續擴張和不斷提高的利潤率備受讚譽。</p>
</div><p>Today, the stock may seem expensive at 57 times forward earnings estimates, but a look at its growth story through four simple charts is enough to see if it's still worth buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，該股票可能看起來昂貴，市盈率達到了 57 倍，但通過四張簡單的圖表來看它的增長故事就足以判斷是否仍值得購買。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvd29tYW4tY2hlY2tzLWEtbGFwdG9wLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fwoman-checks-a-laptop.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Consistent restaurant openings</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 持續開設餐廳</h2>
</div><p>Unlike <strong>McDonald's</strong>, which spun off Chipotle in 2006 and generates most of its revenue from franchise fees, Chipotle directly owns and operates all of its restaurants. That business model is more capital-intensive, but it allows the company to tightly control its supply chain, maintain better quality-control measures, and freely expand without relying on franchisees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 <strong>麥當勞</strong> 不同，後者在 2006 年將墨式燒烤剝離，並大部分收入來自特許經營費用，墨式燒烤直接擁有並經營其所有餐廳。這種商業模式更需要資本投入，但它使公司能夠嚴格控制供應鏈，保持更好的質量控制措施，並在不依賴特許經營者的情況下自由擴張。</p>
</div><p>Chipotle is opening new restaurants at a much faster pace than many of its peers as well. Its number of year-end stores rose from 2,491 in 2018 to 3,437 in 2023, and the company plans to open 285 to 315 new locations this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤的新餐廳開設速度比許多同行要快得多。其年末店鋪數量從 2018 年的 2,491 家增至 2023 年的 3,437 家，公司計劃今年開設 285 至 315 家新店。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvbnVtYmVyLW9mLXllYXItZW5kLXJlc3RhdXJhbnRzLTIwMTgtMjAyMy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fnumber-of-year-end-restaurants-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><h2>2. Impressive comps growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 令人印象深刻的同店銷售增長</h2>
</div><p>Some restaurants open lots of new locations to boost their sales but then fail to grow their comparable-store sales as they mature. Therefore, it's often a red flag when a restaurant chain has positive revenue growth but negative comps growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些餐廳開設大量新店以提升銷售額，但隨後未能在成熟階段增長同店銷售額。因此，當一個餐廳連鎖企業具有正收入增長但同店銷售增長為負時，通常是一個警示信號。</p>
</div><p>Once again, this is an area where Chipotle stands out from its peers. In addition to opening new stores every year, its comps are consistently rising. This key industry metric even climbed during the start of the pandemic in 2020, driven by robust digital sales, and it continued rising over the following three years. Management expects to generate mid-to-high single-digit comps growth in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤再次脱穎而出的領域之一就是這一點。除了每年開設新店外，其同店銷售額持續增長。這一關鍵行業指標甚至在 2020 年疫情爆發初期上升，得益於強勁的數字銷售，隨後在接下來的三年內繼續上升。管理層預計 2024 年同店銷售額將實現中高個位數增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvY29tcGFyYWJsZS1zdG9yZS1zYWxlcy1ncm93dGgtMjAxOC0yMDIzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Fcomparable-store-sales-growth-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><h2>3. Expanding restaurant-level operating margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 擴大餐廳級別的運營利潤率</h2>
</div><p>Over the past two years, the restaurant sector faced tough inflationary headwinds as food and labor costs rose. But after dipping during the pandemic in 2020, Chipotle's restaurant-level operating margins expanded over the next three years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去兩年，餐飲行業面臨食品和勞動力成本上漲的嚴峻挑戰。但在 2020 年疫情期間下滑後，墨式燒烤的餐廳級別運營利潤率在接下來的三年內擴大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODEzOTAvcmVzdGF1cmFudC1sZXZlbC1vcGVyYXRpbmctbWFyZ2lucy0yMDE4LTIwMjMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F781390%2Frestaurant-level-operating-margins-2018-2023.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Chipotle. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：墨式燒烤。圖表作者：本文作者。</p>
</div><p>Chipotle offset the inflationary pressure by raising its menu prices and opening more drive-thru Chipotlanes to accelerate order volumes. It expects to open Chipotlanes at more than 80% of its new locations this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤通過提高菜單價格和開設更多的駛入式 Chipotlanes 來抵消通貨膨脹壓力，加速訂單量。公司預計今年將在超過 80% 的新店開設 Chipotlanes。</p>
</div><h2>4. Consistent revenue and earnings growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 持續的營收和盈利增長</h2>
</div><p>Chipotle's new store openings, stable comps growth, and expanding margins all enabled it to generate stronger revenue and earnings growth than major fast-food chains like McDonald's and <strong>Yum! Brands</strong> over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤的新店開設、穩定的同店銷售增長和擴大的利潤率使其在過去五年中實現比麥當勞和 <strong>百勝中國</strong> 等主要快餐連鎖企業更強勁的營收和盈利增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e43e74c594a896c6ee7828ff394dd860.png"/></p>
<p>Source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>From 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Chipotle's revenue to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% as its earnings per share (EPS) increase at a CAGR of 22%. That growth should be fueled by the expansion of its digital orders (which accounted for 36.5% of its total revenue in the first quarter of 2024), the stickiness of its loyalty program, and its expansion into Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2023 年到 2026 年，分析師預計墨式燒烤的營收將以 14% 的複合年增長率增長，其每股收益將以 22% 的複合年增長率增加。這種增長將受益於數字訂單的擴張（在 2024 年第一季度佔總收入的 36.5%）、其忠誠計劃的粘性以及在歐洲的擴張。</p>
</div><p>By comparison, analysts expect just single-digit revenue and earnings growth for McDonald's and Yum! Brands over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，分析師預計麥當勞和百勝中國在同一時期的營收和盈利增長僅為個位數。</p>
</div><h2>Is it the right time to buy Chipotle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買墨式燒烤的正確時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Chipotle's business is still firing on all cylinders, but a lot of its growth is already baked into its valuation. McDonald's trades at just 21 times forward earnings, while Yum has a slightly higher forward multiple of 23. Therefore, Chipotle stock could experience volatility, especially if its comps growth cools off or its profit margins decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤的業務仍在全力運轉，但其許多增長已經融入了其估值中。麥當勞的市盈率僅為 21 倍，而百勝的前瞻倍數略高，為 23 倍。因此，墨式燒烤股票可能會經歷波動，特別是如果其同店銷售增長放緩或利潤率下降。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors can still nibble on Chipotle stock as it gears up for its 50-for-1 stock split on June 26. However, it's smarter to dollar-cost average into this growth play over several months or quarters instead of going all-in at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投資者仍可在墨式燒烤股票上小幅投資，因為該公司正準備在 6 月 26 日進行 50 比 1 的股票分拆。然而，與其在當前水平全力以赴不如在幾個月或幾個季度內分批定投這一增長機會。</p>
</div>

墨式燒烤的增長故事通過四張簡單的圖表展示