<p>巴菲特指數表明美國股市嚴重高估，引起了對被高估股票的關注。市值佔國內生產總值的比例達到 192.6%，分析師預計，從這種程度的過度估值中，投資者每年只能獲得 0.6% 的回報，包括股息。接下來，您將瞭解三隻被高估但值得關注的特定股票。</p>
<p>通過觀察這些股票的市盈率（P/E Ratio）和 PEG 比率，探討這些股票被定價過高的可能性。然後，使用貼現現金流量（DCF）方法檢查它們的內在價值。彼得·林奇的原則指出，最佳買入時機是當市盈率低於 15 且 PEG 等於 1 時。這表示公司被合理定價。如果 PEG 超過 1，則表示被高估。DCF 模型將計算內在價值，以與當前價格進行比較。</p>
<p>我們將合理評估股票當前估值中所藴含的增長前景。當觀察到整體市場指標（如標普 500 指數的市盈率為 28.5）顯示市場過熱時，這些選擇可能正處於下行的狀態。</p>
<h2>英特爾公司（ARM Holdings）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>英特爾公司</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>）是半導體行業中領先的芯片和知識產權設計公司。</p>
<p>根據其高企的估值比率和當前價格與內在價值之間的巨大差距，該公司似乎被嚴重高估。目前，英特爾公司的市盈率為 568.44，是美國股市中最高之一。其當前 PEG 比率也極高，達到 6.9，遠遠超過林奇的公平價值水平。</p>
<p>此外，使用貼現現金流量（DCF）模型計算的英特爾公司的內在價值為每股 28.13 美元。這遠低於當前股價 166.94 美元。因此，這表明英特爾公司的股價幾乎是其內在價值的五倍。</p>
<p>基於預期增長和未來現金流的高估值表明，英特爾公司可能已經超出了預期。作為一家與半導體週期密切相關的知識產權公司，未來的增長可能會逐漸放緩。因此，預期似乎準備接受現實的檢驗。</p>
<p>鑑於極高的市盈率和 PEG 比率，以及股價與內在價值之間的巨大差距，英特爾公司看起來是值得關注的被高估股票之一。投資者可能希望在購買英特爾公司增長故事之前等待更好的入場點。在不久的將來，可能會出現修正。</p>
<h2>特朗斯迪姆集團（TransDigm Group）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>特朗斯迪姆集團</strong>（NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>）設計並製造用於商用和軍用飛機平台的產品。它也很可能很快從其領先地位下降。該公司的市盈率極高，為 52.4，是彼得·林奇標準的 3 倍多。此外，該公司的 PEG 比率高達 5.02。</p>
<p>最令人擔憂的是特朗斯迪姆當前股價與內在價值之間的巨大差距。根據貼現現金流量估值模型，特朗斯迪姆的內在價值僅估計為每股 237 美元。與實際股價 1288.65 美元相比，這表示被高估。</p>
<p>市場對特朗斯迪姆未來現金流的估值似乎被誇大了。確實，該公司在一個有吸引力的航空航天行業中運營，並生產專有的專業產品。然而，其增長前景似乎無法證明其與內在價值的脱節。</p>
<p>隨着市盈率和 PEG 比率急劇上升遠高於基準值，再加上內在價值不到當前價格五分之一，特朗斯迪姆被視為投資者可能要避開的更為高估值的股票之一。</p>
<h2>泰瑞達（Teradyne）</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
<p><strong>泰瑞達</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>）是領先的自動化測試設備和機器人解決方案供應商，根據其當前估值，該公司顯然被高估。該公司的市盈率為 56.47，幾乎是林奇基準的四倍。其 PEG 比率同樣令人擔憂，為 6.85。</p>
<p>此外，泰瑞達的內在價值約等於每股 147.57 美元的當前價格。這表明該股票的交易價格是其內在價值的兩倍多。</p>
<p>儘管泰瑞達產生了強勁的現金流並保持領先的市場地位，但其增長前景並不確定。在過去幾個季度中，由於客户更加謹慎的資本支出，該公司的芯片測試設備需求有所放緩。此外，其收入在最近一個季度下降了 3%，盈利也未達到預期。</p>
<p>此外，高估值似乎將完美執行未來多年的增長定價進去。因此，如果增長預期遇到重大阻礙，泰瑞達股票看起來很脆弱。</p>
<p>鑑於增長方面存在的風險和股價與內在價值之間的極端脱節，泰瑞達是另一隻值得關注的被高估股票，可能會出現破裂。在這些水平上，TER 似乎承擔着比上行潛力更大得多的下行風險。更有耐心的投資者可能更願意在估值迴歸到歷史正常水平之前觀望。</p>
<p>_在發佈日期，Andrea van Schalkwyk 沒有持有（直接或間接）所提到證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點屬於作者本人，遵守 InvestorPlace.com 的發佈準則。</p>
<p>Andrea van Schalkwyk 是一位價值投資者，遵循著名的沃倫·巴菲特及其導師本傑明·格雷厄姆的原則。他擁有帕多瓦大學的工程碩士學位（MEng）和 CUOA 商學院的工商管理碩士學位。</p>
<p>人工智能、工業、半導體、航天、科技</p>

泰瑞達

<p>巴菲特指數顯示美國股市被高估，特別是 ARM Holdings、TransDigm Group 和泰瑞達這三隻股票被明顯高估。這些股票的市盈率（P/E）和市盈增長比（PEG）很高，其內在價值遠低於當前股價。投資者可能希望在購買這些股票之前等待更好的入場點</p>

<p>The Buffett Indicator signals a significantly overvalued U.S. Stock Market and has drawn much attention to overvalued stocks to watch. With market cap over GDP at 192.6%, analysts expect returns to be only 0.6% a year including dividends from this level of overvaluation. Below, you’ll learn about three particular stocks that are overvalued but should be watched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特指數表明美國股市嚴重高估，引起了對被高估股票的關注。市值佔國內生產總值的比例達到 192.6%，分析師預計，從這種程度的過度估值中，投資者每年只能獲得 0.6% 的回報，包括股息。接下來，您將瞭解三隻被高估但值得關注的特定股票。</p>
</div><p>Explore the possibility of these stocks being overpriced by looking at their P/E Ratios and PEG ratios. Then, examine their intrinsic values using a discounted cash flow ( <strong>DCF</strong>) methodology. Peter Lynch’s principles state the best time to buy is when P/E is under 15 and PEG equals 1. This denotes a fairly valued company. If PEG exceeds 1, it signals an overvaluation. The DCF models will calculate intrinsic values to compare against current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過觀察這些股票的市盈率（P/E Ratio）和 PEG 比率，探討這些股票被定價過高的可能性。然後，使用貼現現金流量（DCF）方法檢查它們的內在價值。彼得·林奇的原則指出，最佳買入時機是當市盈率低於 15 且 PEG 等於 1 時。這表示公司被合理定價。如果 PEG 超過 1，則表示被高估。DCF 模型將計算內在價值，以與當前價格進行比較。</p>
</div><p>We’ll aim to reasonably assess the growth prospects factored into the stocks’ current valuations. With the overall market appearing frothy when looking at metrics like the elevated <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> P/E ratio of 28.5, these picks may be primed for a comedown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們將合理評估股票當前估值中所藴含的增長前景。當觀察到整體市場指標（如標普 500 指數的市盈率為 28.5）顯示市場過熱時，這些選擇可能正處於下行的狀態。</p>
</div><h2>ARM Holdings (ARM)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英特爾公司（ARM Holdings）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>ARM Holdings</strong> (NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>) is a leading designer of chips and intellectual property in the semiconductor industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英特爾公司</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>ARM</strong>）是半導體行業中領先的芯片和知識產權設計公司。</p>
</div><p>The company appears significantly overvalued based on its sky-high valuation ratios and large discrepancy between current price and intrinsic value. Currently, ARM trades at a P/E ratio of 568.44, one of the highest in the U.S. stock market. Its current PEG ratio is also extremely high at 6.9, far exceeding Lynch’s fair value level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據其高企的估值比率和當前價格與內在價值之間的巨大差距，該公司似乎被嚴重高估。目前，英特爾公司的市盈率為 568.44，是美國股市中最高之一。其當前 PEG 比率也極高，達到 6.9，遠遠超過林奇的公平價值水平。</p>
</div><p>In addition, the intrinsic value of ARM Holdings using a discounted cash flow ( <strong>DCF</strong>) model is $28.13 per share. This is vastly lower than the current share price of $166.94. Therefore, this indicates ARM trades at nearly five times its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，使用貼現現金流量（DCF）模型計算的英特爾公司的內在價值為每股 28.13 美元。這遠低於當前股價 166.94 美元。因此，這表明英特爾公司的股價幾乎是其內在價值的五倍。</p>
</div><p>Stretched valuations based on expected growth and future cash flows suggest ARM Holdings may have overshot its mark. As an intellectual property company tied heavily to the semiconductor cycle, growth is likely to moderate moving forward. Thus expectations seem poised for a reality check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於預期增長和未來現金流的高估值表明，英特爾公司可能已經超出了預期。作為一家與半導體週期密切相關的知識產權公司，未來的增長可能會逐漸放緩。因此，預期似乎準備接受現實的檢驗。</p>
</div><p>Given the extremely high P/E and PEG ratios and the enormous gap between price and intrinsic value, ARM Holdings looks like one of the overvalued stocks to watch. Investors may want to wait for a better entry point before buying into the ARM growth story. A correction seems likely to materialize before too long.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於極高的市盈率和 PEG 比率，以及股價與內在價值之間的巨大差距，英特爾公司看起來是值得關注的被高估股票之一。投資者可能希望在購買英特爾公司增長故事之前等待更好的入場點。在不久的將來，可能會出現修正。</p>
</div><h2>TransDigm Group (TDG)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗斯迪姆集團（TransDigm Group）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Pavel Kapysh / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>TransDigm Group</strong> (NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>) designs and creates products for use in commercial and military aircraft platforms. It’s also likely to soon fall from its pedestal. The company trades at an extremely high P/E ratio of 52.4, over 3 times higher than Peter Lynch’s standard. In addition, the company’s PEG ratio stands at a sky-high 5.02.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特朗斯迪姆集團</strong>（NYSE:<strong>TDG</strong>）設計並製造用於商用和軍用飛機平台的產品。它也很可能很快從其領先地位下降。該公司的市盈率極高，為 52.4，是彼得·林奇標準的 3 倍多。此外，該公司的 PEG 比率高達 5.02。</p>
</div><p>Most concerning is the massive discrepancy between TransDigm’s current share price and its intrinsic value. Based on a discounted cash flow valuation model, TransDigm’s intrinsic value is estimated at only $237 per share. This represents an overvaluation compared to the actual stock price of $1,288.65.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最令人擔憂的是特朗斯迪姆當前股價與內在價值之間的巨大差距。根據貼現現金流量估值模型，特朗斯迪姆的內在價值僅估計為每股 237 美元。與實際股價 1288.65 美元相比，這表示被高估。</p>
</div><p>The market’s valuation of TransDigm’s future cash flows appears overinflated. It’s true that the company operates in an attractive aerospace industry and produces specialized proprietary products. However, its growth prospects don’t seem to justify such a disconnect with intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場對特朗斯迪姆未來現金流的估值似乎被誇大了。確實，該公司在一個有吸引力的航空航天行業中運營，並生產專有的專業產品。然而，其增長前景似乎無法證明其與內在價值的脱節。</p>
</div><p>With warning signs evident in skyrocketing P/E and PEG ratios far above baseline values, plus an intrinsic value less than one-fifth of the current price, TransDigm shapes up as one of the more overvalued stocks that investors may want to avoid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着市盈率和 PEG 比率急劇上升遠高於基準值，再加上內在價值不到當前價格五分之一，特朗斯迪姆被視為投資者可能要避開的更為高估值的股票之一。</p>
</div><h2>Teradyne (TER)</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>泰瑞達（Teradyne）</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif" alt="" original-src="https://investorplace.com/wp-content/plugins/lazy-load/images/1x1.trans.gif"/></p>
<p>Source: Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Phonlamai Photo / Shutterstock.com</p>
</div><p><strong>Teradyne</strong>(NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>), a leading supplier of automated test equipment and robotics solutions, appears significantly overvalued based on its current valuations. The company has an exorbitant P/E ratio of 56.47, nearly four times Lynch’s benchmark. Its PEG ratio is equally concerning at 6.85.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>泰瑞達</strong>（NASDAQ:<strong>TER</strong>）是領先的自動化測試設備和機器人解決方案供應商，根據其當前估值，該公司顯然被高估。該公司的市盈率為 56.47，幾乎是林奇基準的四倍。其 PEG 比率同樣令人擔憂，為 6.85。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Teradyne’s intrinsic value is approximately equal to its current price of $147.57 per share. This indicates the stock is trading at more than twice its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，泰瑞達的內在價值約等於每股 147.57 美元的當前價格。這表明該股票的交易價格是其內在價值的兩倍多。</p>
</div><p>While Teradyne generates strong cash flows and maintains a leading market position, its growth prospects are uncertain. The company has experienced slowing demand for its chip testing equipment over the past few quarters amid customers’ more cautious capital spending. Furthermore, its revenue has declined 3% and earnings missed estimates in the most recent quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管泰瑞達產生了強勁的現金流並保持領先的市場地位，但其增長前景並不確定。在過去幾個季度中，由於客户更加謹慎的資本支出，該公司的芯片測試設備需求有所放緩。此外，其收入在最近一個季度下降了 3%，盈利也未達到預期。</p>
</div><p>Further, stretched valuations seem to price in flawless execution of growth for years to come. So, Teradyne stock appears vulnerable should the growth projections hit any major roadblock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，高估值似乎將完美執行未來多年的增長定價進去。因此，如果增長預期遇到重大阻礙，泰瑞達股票看起來很脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Given the red flags around growth and the extreme disconnect between price and intrinsic value, Teradyne is another overvalued stock to watch before a potential bursting. At these levels, TER seems to carry significantly more downside risk than upside potential. More patient investors may prefer to watch it from the sidelines until valuations revert closer to historical norms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於增長方面存在的風險和股價與內在價值之間的極端脱節，泰瑞達是另一隻值得關注的被高估股票，可能會出現破裂。在這些水平上，TER 似乎承擔着比上行潛力更大得多的下行風險。更有耐心的投資者可能更願意在估值迴歸到歷史正常水平之前觀望。</p>
</div><p><em>On the date of publication, Andrea van Schalkwyk did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com</em> <em>Publishing Guidelines</em> <em>.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_在發佈日期，Andrea van Schalkwyk 沒有持有（直接或間接）所提到證券的任何頭寸。本文中表達的觀點屬於作者本人，遵守 InvestorPlace.com 的發佈準則。</p>
</div><p>Andrea van Schalkwyk is a value investor who adheres to the principles of the renowned Warren Buffett and his mentor Benjamin Graham. He holds a Master of Engineering (MEng) from the University of Padua and an Executive MBA from the CUOA Business School.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Andrea van Schalkwyk 是一位價值投資者，遵循著名的沃倫·巴菲特及其導師本傑明·格雷厄姆的原則。他擁有帕多瓦大學的工程碩士學位（MEng）和 CUOA 商學院的工商管理碩士學位。</p>
</div><p>Artificial Intelligence, Industrial, Semiconductor, Space, Technology</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能、工業、半導體、航天、科技</p>
</div>

泡沫危機？在泡沫破裂前識別出 3 只被高估的股票