<p>Nvidia（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA</strong>）和 Microsoft（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT</strong>）可以説是兩家受益最多於人工智能（AI）崛起的巨頭公司。這使得很難對這兩家公司採取其他立場，除了看漲。然而，考慮到 Nvidia 的快速增長相比於微軟更為穩定的軌跡，我現在更傾向於認為微軟是兩者中更好的投資選擇。</p>
<p>微軟通過其軟件和雲服務使人工智能的可訪問性和整合民主化，而 Nvidia 提供了 AI 處理所需的專業硬件。兩者的獨特能力共同促進了跨各行業的人工智能創新生態系統，使它們成為互補力量。</p>
<p>在本文中，我將深入研究這兩家公司，比較它們的營收增長、利潤率和估值差異。</p>
<h2><strong>Nvidia 的指數增長及未來之路</strong></h2>
<p>Nvidia 最近表現搶眼，在股市中引人注目，甚至超過微軟和蘋果（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：AAPL</strong>）等大科技公司，於 2024 年中成為市值最高的公司。在過去五年中，NVDA 驚人的漲幅達到 2,998%，這與投資者大膽押注 AI 潛力顛覆經濟有關。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia 的成就不言而喻。由於 AI 迎來高速增長，Nvidia 的增長呈指數級增長，特別是在過去一年半的時間裏。其營收從 2017 年的 69.1 億美元增長到 2024 年 1 月的 609.2 億美元。公司的運營利潤率也大幅提升。目前公司的淨利潤率為 48.8%，較 2017 年的 24% 提高。這意味着 Nvidia 通過控制成本實現業務蓬勃發展的同時，利潤翻番。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg"/></p>
<p>此外，我們對 Nvidia 的銷售前景有很好的可見性，看起來非常強勁。Nvidia 的銷售帶來非常高的利潤率，毛利率超過 78%，而預測顯示，到 2025 年 1 月結束的財政期間，銷售額將增長 97%，隨後到 2026 年 1 月將再增長 32%。因此，我們可以看到 Nvidia 的增長是顯著的。</p>
<p>關鍵在於 Nvidia 需要保持這種勢頭。以 38 倍的前瞻性 EV/EBITDA，任何增長預期放緩都可能帶來麻煩。也就是説，如果 Nvidia 仍處於早期或中期增長階段，這種估值可能是合理的。但始終存在一個令人擔憂的問題，即過去五年近 3000% 的漲幅可能會在面臨第一個重大障礙時破裂。</p>
<p>然而，華爾街似乎並不擔心這一點。當我們看分析師一致預測時，即使考慮到估值溢價，Nvidia 仍被認為是強熱門股，41 位分析師中有 38 位給出看漲建議，只有三位給出持有建議。平均目標價為 135.09 美元，暗示着 9.35% 的上漲潛力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png"/></p>
<p>最樂觀的是 Rosenblatt Securities 的五星分析師 Hans Mosesmann，他對 Nvidia 給出了 200 美元的目標價，並認為 Nvidia 參與軟件領域將顯著增加未來十年的整體銷售額，從而對可持續性產生積極影響，進而提升估值。</p>
<h2><strong>微軟：乘着線性增長浪潮</strong></h2>
<p>在當前 GenAI 繁榮中，微軟無疑正在乘着重要的增長機遇浪潮。雖然不及 Nvidia 那般爆炸性，但該公司在過去五年中漲幅超過 245%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png"/></p>
<p>該公司通過成功執行其 GenAI 貨幣化戰略有效地振興了其增長勢頭。這些戰略包括在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 上取得實質性進展，與 OpenAI 的獨家雲合作伙伴關係以及 Azure 的出色表現。</p>
<p>2017 年，微軟全年營收約為 965 億美元。快進到 2023 年，全年營收翻了兩番，達到了 2119 億美元。這是一次巨大的飛躍，顯示了他們與 Nvidia 相比增長了多少，後者去年的總營收不到微軟增長的一半。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg"/></p>
<p>在盈利能力方面，微軟的利潤率從 26.3% 左右增長到過去一年的堅實 34.1%。他們的增長是穩定的，不像 Nvidia 那樣火箭般的軌跡。</p>
<p>關鍵點在於穩定的增長也導致微軟的股價交易溢價。通常，任何股票交易價格高於 10 倍 EV/Sales 可能被視為昂貴。目前，微軟的前瞻性 EV/Sales 為 13 倍，前瞻性非 GAAP P/E 比率為 36 倍，這是五年來最高的，而平均值為 31 倍。我認為微軟的溢價價格反映了對其長期增長的信心，特別是在其人工智能推動下。</p>
<p>微軟在 2024 年最後三個季度的 CapEx 年增長超過 50%，以加強其雲和人工智能領域，為未來做好準備。</p>
<p>然而，華爾街的共識卻更加看漲——事實上，可能更看漲。在覆蓋該股票的 35 位分析師中，只有一位給出持有建議，其餘都重申了對該股票的買入評級。分析師們的平均目標價為 500.71 美元，表明潛在上漲幅度為 10.57%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg"/></p>
<p>最看好的是 Truist Financial 的分析師 Joel Fishbein，根據 Tipranks 評級，他是五星分析師，給微軟股票設定了$600 的目標價位。該分析師表示，微軟的指引可能過於保守，同時有多個有利因素和通過擴大人工智能項目實現超越和提升的能力，主要提到 Azure 增長。</p>
<h2><strong>結論</strong></h2>
<p>Nvidia 和微軟目前可能是人工智能領域最主導的參與者，Nvidia 在硬件方面領先，微軟在軟件方面領先。它們共同形成強大的協同效應，主導着人工智能領域，加速行業增長，並促進持續創新。</p>
<p>兩家公司仍然面臨着強勁的需求，幾乎沒有什麼顧慮。然而，Nvidia 的增長是指數級的，而微軟的增長是穩定且線性的。這意味着任何顛簸可能會對 Nvidia 造成比對微軟更嚴重的打擊。儘管我對兩者都持樂觀態度，但我更傾向於認為微軟是更好的購買選擇。</p>
<p>披露</p>
<p>免責聲明</p>

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

微軟

半導體 ETF - VanEck Vectors

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

英偉達

<p>Nvidia 和微軟是兩家受益於人工智能興起的巨頭公司。Nvidia 的快速增長使其成為更好的投資選擇，但其估值可能令人擔憂。分析師對 Nvidia 持樂觀態度，設定了 135.09 美元的目標價位。微軟的增長穩健，股價較高，反映了對其長期增長的信心。微軟正在加大對雲計算和人工智能的投資。華爾街普遍看好微軟</p>

<p>Nvidia ( <strong>NASDAQ:NVDA</strong>) and Microsoft ( <strong>NASDAQ:MSFT</strong>) are arguably two giant companies that have benefited the most from the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). This makes it difficult to adopt any position other than a bullish one on either of these firms. However, considering Nvidia’s rapid growth compared to Microsoft’s steadier trajectory, I now lean towards Microsoft as the better buy between the two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA</strong>）和 Microsoft（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT</strong>）可以説是兩家受益最多於人工智能（AI）崛起的巨頭公司。這使得很難對這兩家公司採取其他立場，除了看漲。然而，考慮到 Nvidia 的快速增長相比於微軟更為穩定的軌跡，我現在更傾向於認為微軟是兩者中更好的投資選擇。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft democratizes AI accessibility and integration through its software and cloud offerings, whereas Nvidia provides the specialized hardware needed for AI processing. Together, their distinct capabilities foster a robust ecosystem for AI innovation across various industries, making them complementary forces.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟通過其軟件和雲服務使人工智能的可訪問性和整合民主化，而 Nvidia 提供了 AI 處理所需的專業硬件。兩者的獨特能力共同促進了跨各行業的人工智能創新生態系統，使它們成為互補力量。</p>
</div><p>In this article, I’ll deep-dive into both companies, comparing revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation differences.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本文中，我將深入研究這兩家公司，比較它們的營收增長、利潤率和估值差異。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Nvidia’s Exponential Growth and the Road Ahead</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Nvidia 的指數增長及未來之路</strong></h2>
</div><p>Nvidia has been on fire lately, stealing the spotlight in the stock market and even outranking Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Apple <strong>(NASDAQ:AAPL</strong>) to become the world’s most valuable company by market cap in mid-2024. Over the last five years, NVDA’s jaw-dropping 2,998% surge has been linked to investors betting big on AI’s potential to shake up the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 最近表現搶眼，在股市中引人注目，甚至超過微軟和蘋果（<strong>納斯達克股票代碼：AAPL</strong>）等大科技公司，於 2024 年中成為市值最高的公司。在過去五年中，NVDA 驚人的漲幅達到 2,998%，這與投資者大膽押注 AI 潛力顛覆經濟有關。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-937.png"/></p>
<p>Nvidia’s achievements speak volumes. Thanks to AI hitting its stride, Nvidia’s growth has been exponential, especially in the past year and a half. Its revenue has surged from $6.91 billion in 2017 to $60.92 billion by January 2024. It has also ramped up its operating profit margin in a big way. The company’s net margins are now 48.8%, an increase from the 24% margins in 2017. That means Nvidia is doubling its margins by tightening costs as business booms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的成就不言而喻。由於 AI 迎來高速增長，Nvidia 的增長呈指數級增長，特別是在過去一年半的時間裏。其營收從 2017 年的 69.1 億美元增長到 2024 年 1 月的 609.2 億美元。公司的運營利潤率也大幅提升。目前公司的淨利潤率為 48.8%，較 2017 年的 24% 提高。這意味着 Nvidia 通過控制成本實現業務蓬勃發展的同時，利潤翻番。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.19-1024x398.jpeg"/></p>
<p>In addition, we have good visibility into Nvidia’s sales prospects, and they look very strong. Nvidia’s sales come with very high-profit margins- over 78% in gross profit margin- while projections indicate a 97% revenue growth by the fiscal period ending in January 2025, followed by an additional 32% growth for January 2026. Therefore, we can see that Nvidia’s growth is remarkable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，我們對 Nvidia 的銷售前景有很好的可見性，看起來非常強勁。Nvidia 的銷售帶來非常高的利潤率，毛利率超過 78%，而預測顯示，到 2025 年 1 月結束的財政期間，銷售額將增長 97%，隨後到 2026 年 1 月將再增長 32%。因此，我們可以看到 Nvidia 的增長是顯著的。</p>
</div><p>The big catch is that Nvidia needs to keep this momentum. With a forward EV/EBITDA of 38x, any slowdown in growth expectations could spell trouble. That said, this valuation may make sense if Nvidia is still in its early or mid-growth phase. But there’s always that nagging worry that the nearly 3,000% jump in the last five years might burst at the face of the first major hurdle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵在於 Nvidia 需要保持這種勢頭。以 38 倍的前瞻性 EV/EBITDA，任何增長預期放緩都可能帶來麻煩。也就是説，如果 Nvidia 仍處於早期或中期增長階段，這種估值可能是合理的。但始終存在一個令人擔憂的問題，即過去五年近 3000% 的漲幅可能會在面臨第一個重大障礙時破裂。</p>
</div><p>However, it seems that Wall Street doesn’t share this concern. When we look at analyst consensus, even with the valuation premium, Nvidia is a Strong Buy where 38 out of 41 analysts have a bullish recommendation, while only three have a Hold recommendation. The average price target is $135.09, suggesting an upside potential of 9.35%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，華爾街似乎並不擔心這一點。當我們看分析師一致預測時，即使考慮到估值溢價，Nvidia 仍被認為是強熱門股，41 位分析師中有 38 位給出看漲建議，只有三位給出持有建議。平均目標價為 135.09 美元，暗示着 9.35% 的上漲潛力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-936-1024x340.png"/></p>
<p>The most optimistic is Rosenblatt Securities Hans Mosesmann, a five-star analyst according to Tipranks ratings, who has a $200 price target on Nvidia and believes that the path to strong valuation lies in Nvidia’s participation in software, to significantly increase the overall sales over the next decade, positively impacting valuation due to its sustainability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最樂觀的是 Rosenblatt Securities 的五星分析師 Hans Mosesmann，他對 Nvidia 給出了 200 美元的目標價，並認為 Nvidia 參與軟件領域將顯著增加未來十年的整體銷售額，從而對可持續性產生積極影響，進而提升估值。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Microsoft: Riding a Linear Growth Wave</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>微軟：乘着線性增長浪潮</strong></h2>
</div><p>Microsoft is undeniably riding a wave of significant growth opportunities amid the current GenAI boom. While not as explosive as Nvidia, the company has surged over 245% in the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前 GenAI 繁榮中，微軟無疑正在乘着重要的增長機遇浪潮。雖然不及 Nvidia 那般爆炸性，但該公司在過去五年中漲幅超過 245%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image-938.png"/></p>
<p>The company has effectively revitalized its growth momentum through the successful execution of its GenAI monetization strategies. These include gaining substantial traction with Microsoft 365 Copilot, its exclusive cloud partnership with OpenAI, and impressive performance from Azure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司通過成功執行其 GenAI 貨幣化戰略有效地振興了其增長勢頭。這些戰略包括在 Microsoft 365 Copilot 上取得實質性進展，與 OpenAI 的獨家雲合作伙伴關係以及 Azure 的出色表現。</p>
</div><p>In 2017, Microsoft’s revenue was about $96.5 billion for the full year. Fast-forward to 2023, and it’s tripled to $211.9 billion for the full year. That’s a massive leap and shows how much they’ve grown compared to Nvidia, whose total revenue for the last year is less than half of Microsoft’s growth over the decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2017 年，微軟全年營收約為 965 億美元。快進到 2023 年，全年營收翻了兩番，達到了 2119 億美元。這是一次巨大的飛躍，顯示了他們與 Nvidia 相比增長了多少，後者去年的總營收不到微軟增長的一半。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.31-1024x396.jpeg"/></p>
<p>When it comes to profitability, Microsoft’s profit margin has jumped from around 26.3% to a solid 34.1% in the past year. Their growth has been steady, unlike Nvidia’s rocket-like trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在盈利能力方面，微軟的利潤率從 26.3% 左右增長到過去一年的堅實 34.1%。他們的增長是穩定的，不像 Nvidia 那樣火箭般的軌跡。</p>
</div><p>The crucial point is that steady growth also leads to Microsoft’s stock trading at a premium. Usually, any stock trading above 10x EV/Sales may be considered pricey. Right now, Microsoft is sitting at forward 13x EV/Sales and 36x forward non-GAAP P/E ratio, the highest in five years compared to an average of 31x. I believe that MSFT’s premium price reflects the confidence in their long-term growth, especially with their AI push.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵點在於穩定的增長也導致微軟的股價交易溢價。通常，任何股票交易價格高於 10 倍 EV/Sales 可能被視為昂貴。目前，微軟的前瞻性 EV/Sales 為 13 倍，前瞻性非 GAAP P/E 比率為 36 倍，這是五年來最高的，而平均值為 31 倍。我認為微軟的溢價價格反映了對其長期增長的信心，特別是在其人工智能推動下。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft has been ramping up CapEx by more than 50% year-over-year in the last three-quarters of 2024 to beef up its cloud and AI game for what’s coming next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟在 2024 年最後三個季度的 CapEx 年增長超過 50%，以加強其雲和人工智能領域，為未來做好準備。</p>
</div><p>The Wall Street consensus, however, couldn’t be more bullish—in fact, it could. Of the 35 analysts who cover the stock, only one has a Hold recommendation, while the rest have reiterated a Buy rating in the stock. The average price target among analysts is $500.71, indicating a potential upside of 10.57%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，華爾街的共識卻更加看漲——事實上，可能更看漲。在覆蓋該股票的 35 位分析師中，只有一位給出持有建議，其餘都重申了對該股票的買入評級。分析師們的平均目標價為 500.71 美元，表明潛在上漲幅度為 10.57%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Image-27-06-24-at-17.54-1-1024x351.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The most bullish is Truist Financial’s Joel Fishbein, a five-star analyst according to Tipranks ratings, who has a price target of $600 on Microsoft stock. The analyst said Microsoft’s guidance could be conservative with multiple tailwinds and the ability to beat and raise with AI projects expanding, mentioning mainly growth in Azure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最看好的是 Truist Financial 的分析師 Joel Fishbein，根據 Tipranks 評級，他是五星分析師，給微軟股票設定了$600 的目標價位。該分析師表示，微軟的指引可能過於保守，同時有多個有利因素和通過擴大人工智能項目實現超越和提升的能力，主要提到 Azure 增長。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>結論</strong></h2>
</div><p>Nvidia and Microsoft are probably the most dominant players in AI right now, with Nvidia leading in hardware and Microsoft in software. Together, they form a powerful synergy that dominates the AI landscape, accelerates industry growth, and fosters continuous innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 和微軟目前可能是人工智能領域最主導的參與者，Nvidia 在硬件方面領先，微軟在軟件方面領先。它們共同形成強大的協同效應，主導着人工智能領域，加速行業增長，並促進持續創新。</p>
</div><p>Both companies are still seeing solid demand, with very few concerns. However, Nvidia’s growth has been exponential, while Microsoft’s has been steady and linear. This means any bumps in the road could hit Nvidia harder than Microsoft. Though I’m still bullish on both, I lean more toward Microsoft as a better buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩家公司仍然面臨着強勁的需求，幾乎沒有什麼顧慮。然而，Nvidia 的增長是指數級的，而微軟的增長是穩定且線性的。這意味着任何顛簸可能會對 Nvidia 造成比對微軟更嚴重的打擊。儘管我對兩者都持樂觀態度，但我更傾向於認為微軟是更好的購買選擇。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div><p>Disclaimer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>免責聲明</p>
</div>

英偉達（NVDA）與微軟（MSFT）：人工智能巨頭之戰