<p><strong>聯合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.47%) 和 <strong>聯邦快遞</strong>(FDX -1.51%) 是吸引人的股票，但在 2024 年仍然面臨着交易量和定價挑戰。儘管如此，有證據表明它們正在克服這些問題，它們可能在日曆年的下半年表現出色。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>美國小包裹市場供過於求</h2>
<p>與經濟的許多領域一樣，包裹遞送市場近年來的動態非常不同尋常。UPS 管理層在三月底的投資者日演示中表達了這一觀點，描述了下表中所列市場情況。</p>
<p>從 2018 年到 2020 年，市場出現了正常的過剩產能期，這對於滿足需求激增並保持客户滿意而不必採購昂貴的第三方運輸是有利的。然而，由於封鎖導致需求激增，供應增長受阻，因為同樣的封鎖導致了產能限制。</p>
<p>快進到當前情況，現在每日平均交易量（ADV）供過於求 1200 萬，因為消費者行為趨於正常化，經濟放緩，供應重新上線。</p>
<p>|</p>
<p><strong>美國小包裹市場</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
<p><strong>2022-2025</strong> |
|</p>
<p>每日平均交易量供應與需求 |</p>
<p>供應過剩 600 萬 |</p>
<p>需求過剩 600 萬 |</p>
<p>當前供應過剩 1200 萬 |
|</p>
<p>備註 |</p>
<p>正常緩衝以滿足任何需求激增；供需平穩上升 |</p>
<p>封鎖導致需求激增和難以提高供應。 |</p>
<p>隨着封鎖結束和經濟放緩，供應隨着員工迴歸而恢復。 |</p>
<p>數據來源：UPS 演示；作者注。</p>
<p>因此，一個重要問題是，聯邦快遞和 UPS 的增長計劃受到供過於求的什麼風險？供過於求導致定價疲軟，最終導致利潤率和收益令人失望。</p>
<p>這對 UPS 來説是一個特別問題，因為其三年計劃要求調整後的營運利潤從 2023 年的 99 億美元增長到 2026 年的至少 143 億美元，其中大部分利潤增長來自每件貨物收入的增長。</p>
<p>這是一個值得關注的問題，但有三個理由可以相信這兩家運輸公司可以度過這一時期並實現其財務目標。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 包裹遞送量正在改善</h2>
<p>首先，正如圖表所示，交易量增長的下降正在減緩。聯邦快遞管理層最近表示，他們看到需求和交易量正在改善。關於其美國國內包裹交易量，UPS 管理層表示，他們預計四月份第二季度的正交易量會略微增加。</p>
<p>如果包裹遞送量繼續增長，這將有助於減少市場的供過於求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：UPS 和聯邦快遞演示。 * 聯邦快遞的數字已調整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增長。</p>
<h2>2. 電子商務交易正在回升</h2>
<p>另一個積極的跡象是聯邦快遞管理層認為電子商務增長正在回升。聯邦快遞預計其當前財政年度（截至 2025 年 5 月底）的收入將以低個位數至中個位數的速度增長。這一指導背後的假設包括收益擴張（稍後將詳細介紹）、全球工業生產增長和國內電子商務增長。</p>
<p>電子商務增長的提升是一個好跡象，因為它表明消費者開始在經歷了無法在疫情封鎖期間進行的旅行和服務等消費後，開始恢復正常行為。</p>
<h2>3. 定價和收益仍然積極</h2>
<p>考慮到市場的供過於求以及兩家公司在 2024 年經歷的最嚴重問題，當前的定價數據表明它們處理得很好。聯邦快遞談到了一個 “競爭但理性” 的定價環境。事實上，聯邦快遞的每件貨物收入在最近一個季度增加，整體公司每件貨物收入也是如此。</p>
<p>UPS 的美國國內每件貨物收入（以及整體每件貨物收入）在其第一個季度略為負面，但管理層認為隨着燃油價格和燃油附加費的增加，這種情況將在今年內得到改善。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：UPS 和聯邦快遞演示。 * 聯邦快遞的數字已調整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增長。</p>
<h2>股票買入</h2>
<p>聯邦快遞和 UPS 的投資者將急切地等待 UPS 於 7 月 23 日發佈的第二季度財報。如果結果證實美國國內包裹交易量增長，並且每件貨物收入有所改善，這將大大有助於説服投資者，表明定價環境穩固，行業的供過於求正在得到緩解。這將對兩家股票都是利好。</p>

聯邦快遞

聯合包裹

<p>聯合包裹（UPS）和聯邦快遞（FedEx）面臨包裹遞送市場供應過剩帶來的運量和定價挑戰。然而，包裹遞送量和電子商務增長呈現積極跡象。定價和收益保持積極，表明兩家公司都在處理這種情況良好。投資者期待 UPS 即將發佈的財報以進一步確認情況</p>

<p><strong>UPS</strong>(UPS 0.47%) and <strong>FedEx</strong>(FDX -1.51%) are attractive stocks but continue facing volume and pricing challenges in 2024. That said, there's evidence to suggest that they are overcoming these issues, and they could both have excellent second halves of the calendar year. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>聯合包裹</strong>(UPS 0.47%) 和 <strong>聯邦快遞</strong>(FDX -1.51%) 是吸引人的股票，但在 2024 年仍然面臨着交易量和定價挑戰。儘管如此，有證據表明它們正在克服這些問題，它們可能在日曆年的下半年表現出色。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>The U.S. small package market is at overcapacity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美國小包裹市場供過於求</h2>
</div><p>Like much of the economy, the package delivery market has had highly unusual dynamics in recent years. UPS management expressed this during its Investor Day presentation in late March, describing the market as laid out in the table below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與經濟的許多領域一樣，包裹遞送市場近年來的動態非常不同尋常。UPS 管理層在三月底的投資者日演示中表達了這一觀點，描述了下表中所列市場情況。</p>
</div><p>From 2018 to 2020, there was a normal period of excess capacity in the market, which was good for meeting demand spikes and keeping customers happy without resorting to the expensive purchase of third-party transportation. However, demand surged due to the lockdowns, and supply struggled to grow as the same lockdowns caused capacity restraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2018 年到 2020 年，市場出現了正常的過剩產能期，這對於滿足需求激增並保持客户滿意而不必採購昂貴的第三方運輸是有利的。然而，由於封鎖導致需求激增，供應增長受阻，因為同樣的封鎖導致了產能限制。</p>
</div><p>Fast-forward to the current situation, and there's now an average daily volume (ADV) oversupply of 12 million as consumers normalized behavior, the economy slowed, and supply came back online.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快進到當前情況，現在每日平均交易量（ADV）供過於求 1200 萬，因為消費者行為趨於正常化，經濟放緩，供應重新上線。</p>
<p>|</p>
</div><p><strong>U.S. Small Package Market</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美國小包裹市場</strong> |</p>
</div><p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2018-2020</strong> |</p>
</div><p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2020-2022</strong> |</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>2022-2025</strong></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2022-2025</strong> |
|</p>
</div><p>Average daily volume supply vs. demand |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每日平均交易量供應與需求 |</p>
</div><p>Excess supply of 6 million |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應過剩 600 萬 |</p>
</div><p>Excess demand of 6 million |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需求過剩 600 萬 |</p>
</div><p>Current excess supply of 12 million |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前供應過剩 1200 萬 |
|</p>
</div><p>Notes |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>備註 |</p>
</div><p>Normal buffer to meet any demand spike; supply and demand trending upward smoothly |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正常緩衝以滿足任何需求激增；供需平穩上升 |</p>
</div><p>Lockdowns created surging demand and difficulty raising supply. |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>封鎖導致需求激增和難以提高供應。 |</p>
</div><p>Demand flattens as lockdowns end and the economy slows, and supply comes back as workers return. |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着封鎖結束和經濟放緩，供應隨着員工迴歸而恢復。 |</p>
</div><p>Data source: UPS presentations; notes by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：UPS 演示；作者注。</p>
</div><p>As such, the big question is, what risk is there to FedEx's and UPS' growth plans from oversupply? Oversupply creates weak pricing that ultimately leads to margin and earnings disappointments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，一個重要問題是，聯邦快遞和 UPS 的增長計劃受到供過於求的什麼風險？供過於求導致定價疲軟，最終導致利潤率和收益令人失望。</p>
</div><p>This is a particular issue for UPS because its three-year plan calls for adjusted operating profit to grow from $9.9 billion in 2023 to at least $14.3 billion in 2026, with the bulk of the profit increase coming from growth in revenue per piece.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對 UPS 來説是一個特別問題，因為其三年計劃要求調整後的營運利潤從 2023 年的 99 億美元增長到 2026 年的至少 143 億美元，其中大部分利潤增長來自每件貨物收入的增長。</p>
</div><p>It's a concern, but there are three reasons to believe both transportation companies can work through this period and achieve their financial targets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個值得關注的問題，但有三個理由可以相信這兩家運輸公司可以度過這一時期並實現其財務目標。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE3NzExNzQwMC0xMjAxeDgwMS1kMjFiNDVkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Fgettyimages-1177117400-1201x801-d21b45d.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Package delivery volumes are improving</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 包裹遞送量正在改善</h2>
</div><p>First, as the chart demonstrates, the decline in volume growth is moderating. FedEx management recently said it sees demand and volumes improving from here. Regarding its U.S. domestic package volume, UPS management said it expected &#34;a little bit of a slight tick up in positive volume in the second quarter&#34; in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，正如圖表所示，交易量增長的下降正在減緩。聯邦快遞管理層最近表示，他們看到需求和交易量正在改善。關於其美國國內包裹交易量，UPS 管理層表示，他們預計四月份第二季度的正交易量會略微增加。</p>
</div><p>If package delivery volumes continue to grow, this will help reduce the market's overcapacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果包裹遞送量繼續增長，這將有助於減少市場的供過於求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvYXZlcmFnZS1kYWlseS1wYWNrYWdlLXZvbHVtZS1ncm93dGgteW95LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Faverage-daily-package-volume-growth-yoy-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS and FedEx presentations. *FedEx numbers are adjusted to the nearest UPS quarter. YOY=year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：UPS 和聯邦快遞演示。 * 聯邦快遞的數字已調整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增長。</p>
</div><h2>2. E-commerce deliveries are coming back</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 電子商務交易正在回升</h2>
</div><p>Another positive sign is FedEx management's belief that e-commerce growth was coming back. FedEx expects its revenue to grow at a low-single-to-mid-single-digit rate in its current financial year, which ends at the end of May 2025. The assumptions behind this guidance were listed as yield expansion (more on that in a moment), global industrial production growth, and growth in domestic e-commerce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個積極的跡象是聯邦快遞管理層認為電子商務增長正在回升。聯邦快遞預計其當前財政年度（截至 2025 年 5 月底）的收入將以低個位數至中個位數的速度增長。這一指導背後的假設包括收益擴張（稍後將詳細介紹）、全球工業生產增長和國內電子商務增長。</p>
</div><p>The pickup in e-commerce growth is a good sign because it indicates that consumers are starting to normalize behavior after a period of spending on things like travel and services that they couldn't do during the pandemic lockdowns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電子商務增長的提升是一個好跡象，因為它表明消費者開始在經歷了無法在疫情封鎖期間進行的旅行和服務等消費後，開始恢復正常行為。</p>
</div><h2>3. Pricing and yield are still positive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 定價和收益仍然積極</h2>
</div><p>Considering the market's overcapacity and both companies experiencing the worst issue in 2024, the current pricing data suggests they are handling it well. FedEx talked of a &#34;competitive but rational&#34; pricing environment. Indeed, FedEx's revenue per package increased in its most recent quarter, as did its overall company revenue per package.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到市場的供過於求以及兩家公司在 2024 年經歷的最嚴重問題，當前的定價數據表明它們處理得很好。聯邦快遞談到了一個 “競爭但理性” 的定價環境。事實上，聯邦快遞的每件貨物收入在最近一個季度增加，整體公司每件貨物收入也是如此。</p>
</div><p>UPS' U.S. domestic revenue per piece (and its overall revenue per piece) was slightly negative in its first quarter, but management believes it will improve through the year as fuel prices and its fuel surcharge increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>UPS 的美國國內每件貨物收入（以及整體每件貨物收入）在其第一個季度略為負面，但管理層認為隨着燃油價格和燃油附加費的增加，這種情況將在今年內得到改善。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODIyNzgvdXMtcmV2ZW51ZS1wZXItcGllY2UtZ3Jvd3RoLXlveS0xLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F782278%2Fus-revenue-per-piece-growth-yoy-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: UPS and FedEx presentations. *FedEx numbers are adjusted to the nearest UPS quarter. YOY=year-over-year growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：UPS 和聯邦快遞演示。 * 聯邦快遞的數字已調整至最接近的 UPS 季度。YOY=同比增長。</p>
</div><h2>Stocks to buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票買入</h2>
</div><p>FedEx and UPS investors will eagerly await UPS' upcoming second-quarter earnings report on July 23. If the results confirm U.S. domestic package volume growth and an improvement in revenue per piece, it will go a long way toward convincing investors that the pricing environment is solid and the industry's overcapacity is being chipped away at. That would be bullish for both stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聯邦快遞和 UPS 的投資者將急切地等待 UPS 於 7 月 23 日發佈的第二季度財報。如果結果證實美國國內包裹交易量增長，並且每件貨物收入有所改善，這將大大有助於説服投資者，表明定價環境穩固，行業的供過於求正在得到緩解。這將對兩家股票都是利好。</p>
</div>

這是聯合包裹和聯邦快遞投資者在 2024 年需要關注的 1 件事