<p>當談到標誌性的美國品牌時，耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）很可能會首先出現在你的腦海中。這兩家公司長期以來為股東帶來了豐厚的回報，但是到 2024 年，情況有所不同，每隻股票的年初至今跌幅均超過 20%。</p>
<p>任何時候當一隻藍籌股大幅下跌時，都值得重新審視，以確定是一個小幅波動還是更重要的下行趨勢。因此，讓我們看看耐克和星巴克最近的財務業績、資產負債表、股息和估值，找出哪隻股票現在是更好的購買選擇。</p>
<h2>收入和利潤</h2>
<p>作為一家公司的股東，你是在投資未來的增長，一般來説，每當一家公司的營收和淨利潤下降或低於預期時，市場都會懲罰該股票。不用看得太遠，耐克和星巴克都在報告最近一個季度業績後下跌了約 15%。</p>
<p>截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的耐克 2024 財年第四季度，公司報告淨銷售額 126 億美元，同比下降 2%。管理層將這一下滑歸因於其生活方式業務的下滑、數字銷售下降 10% 以及中國需求疲軟。首席財務官馬修·弗蘭德在財報電話會議上警告稱，這種下滑可能不是暫時的挫折，並警告稱 “未來幾個季度將充滿挑戰”。</p>
<p>與耐克類似，星巴克也面臨着需求放緩。具體來説，這家飲料巨頭在 2024 財年第二季度（截至 3 月 31 日）的可比銷售額下降了 3%，與 2023 財年第二季度相比，交易減少了 7%。總體而言，星巴克實現了 856 億美元的淨銷售額，同比下降了 1.8%。在高於平均水平的通貨膨脹和星巴克在此期間新開設 583 家淨店的背景下，收入和利潤的下降更加令人沮喪。星巴克管理層還將該季度的店鋪流量下降和中國需求疲軟歸咎於這一令人失望的季度。展望未來，星巴克管理層已將 2024 財年的收入增長預期從之前的 7% 至 10% 調整為 “低個位數”。同樣，其每股收益增長預期也從 15% 至 20% 調整為 “持平至低個位數”。</p>
<p>從每家公司的淨利潤來看，很明顯，耐克在最近報告的季度實現了 15 億美元的淨利潤，同比增長 45%，部分原因是其成功將毛利率提高了 1.1%。相比之下，星巴克在其 2024 財年第二季度實現了 7.72 億美元的淨利潤，同比下降 15%。</p>
<p>儘管銷售完全不同的消費產品，耐克和星巴克面臨着類似的挑戰。然而，在這一類別中，耐克脱穎而出，因為儘管銷售放緩，但其毛利率和淨利潤仍在增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 季度營收數據。</p>
<h2>耐克和星巴克優先考慮股息</h2>
<p>對於像耐克和星巴克這樣的成熟公司，股東們希望看到管理層通過股息和股票回購的形式將資本返還給他們。</p>
<p>耐克目前每股支付 0.37 美元的季度股息，年收益率為 2%。值得注意的是，耐克已連續 23 年支付並提高股息，表明將資本返還給股東是管理層的首要任務。</p>
<p>相比之下，星巴克持續支付並增加股息，已連續 13 年增長。星巴克每股支付的季度股息為 0.57 美元，年收益率為 3.1%。</p>
<p>考慮到最近股價的下跌，它們的股息收益率接近歷史高位。但對於任何支付股息的股票，重要的是要檢查其派息比，該比率衡量了公司通過股息向投資者支付的盈利百分比。一般來説，當股息支付比率達到 75% 或更高時，投資者應擔心公司可能會暫停增加股息或完全削減股息。耐克的派息比為 28.2%，遠低於星巴克的 60.3%。這意味着投資者可以合理地期待未來股息增加。</p>
<p>兩家公司都有相對普通的股票回購計劃，過去三年內每家公司的流通股份減少不到 1%。儘管如此，兩家公司都確保其股份不會被稀釋，股東的所有權份額在緩慢增長。</p>
<p>由於耐克的派息比較低且具有更長的股息增長曆史，這個決定很難做出，但讓我們將這個類別的勝利授予星巴克，因為其年度收益率更高。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 股息收益率數據。</p>
<h2>每家公司的財務健康狀況</h2>
<p>一家公司的資產負債表是其財務健康狀況的重要快照。值得注意的是，耐克擁有 27 億美元的淨現金，與星巴克 131 億美元的淨債務形成鮮明對比。令人印象深刻的是，耐克的淨現金頭寸同比增長了 498%，而星巴克的淨債務則下降了約 8%。</p>
<p>因此，在過去 12 個月中，耐克獲得了 1.61 億美元的利息收入，而星巴克則損失了 4.46 億美元的利息支出。在利率相對較高的時候，星巴克可能會在未來幾年看到不斷增加的利息支出，而耐克則可以利用其現金儲備賺取額外收入。</p>
<p>憑藉耐克的現金儲備，這家鞋服巨頭在這一類別中遙遙領先。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 淨財務債務數據。</p>
<h2>耐克還是星巴克更值得購買？</h2>
<p>考慮到耐克和星巴克長期、經得起考驗的業績記錄，無論最近的財務和股票表現有多令人沮喪，這兩家公司都值得一些耐心。特別是當考慮到兩家公司的股票交易價格接近或達到三年來的低位前瞻市盈率時，即衡量公司當前股價與預期每股收益之比的指標，表明兩家公司的估值較低。具體來説，耐克的前瞻市盈率為 23.1 倍，星巴克的前瞻市盈率為 20.8 倍。然而，如果必須在這兩家公司中選擇，由於其更強勁的現金狀況和穩定的盈利能力，耐克是明顯的贏家。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 數據顯示的耐克前瞻市盈率（PE 比率）。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）均出現銷售和收益下滑，導致它們的股價下跌。儘管銷售放緩，耐克的淨收入仍有所增長，而星巴克面臨門店客流量下降和中國市場需求疲軟。兩家公司均將股息置於優先位置，星巴克提供更高的年度股息收益率。耐克的股息支付比率較低，並且具有較長的股息增長曆史。耐克擁有更強的現金頭寸，而星巴克則存在淨債務。總體而言，目前哪隻股票更值得購買的決定是一個難以抉擇的問題</p>

<p>When you think about iconic American brands, <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.04%) and <strong>Starbucks</strong>(SBUX 2.09%) are likely to come to the top of your mind. Both companies have a long history of delivering outsized returns for shareholders, but 2024 has been a different story, with each stock down more than 20% year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當談到標誌性的美國品牌時，耐克（Nike）和星巴克（Starbucks）很可能會首先出現在你的腦海中。這兩家公司長期以來為股東帶來了豐厚的回報，但是到 2024 年，情況有所不同，每隻股票的年初至今跌幅均超過 20%。</p>
</div><p>Anytime a blue chip stock is down considerably, it's worth revisiting to determine whether it's a minor blip or a more significant downtrend. So, with that in mind, let's look at Nike and Starbucks' recent financial results, balance sheets, dividends, and valuations to find out which stock is the better buy right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何時候當一隻藍籌股大幅下跌時，都值得重新審視，以確定是一個小幅波動還是更重要的下行趨勢。因此，讓我們看看耐克和星巴克最近的財務業績、資產負債表、股息和估值，找出哪隻股票現在是更好的購買選擇。</p>
</div><h2>The top and bottom lines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入和利潤</h2>
</div><p>As a shareholder of a company, you are investing in future growth, and generally speaking, anytime a company's revenue and net income decrease or fall below expectations, the market will punish the stock. Look no further than Nike and Starbucks, which have both dropped roughly 15% since reporting their most recent quarterly earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一家公司的股東，你是在投資未來的增長，一般來説，每當一家公司的營收和淨利潤下降或低於預期時，市場都會懲罰該股票。不用看得太遠，耐克和星巴克都在報告最近一個季度業績後下跌了約 15%。</p>
</div><p>For Nike's fiscal fourth quarter of 2024 ended May 31, the company reported $12.6 billion in net sales, marking a 2% year-over-year decline. Management attributed this drop to a downturn in its lifestyle business, a 10% decrease in digital sales, and weakened demand in China. CFO Matthew Friend cautioned during the earnings call that this decline might not be a temporary setback, warning that &#34;the next few quarters will be challenging.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年 5 月 31 日的耐克 2024 財年第四季度，公司報告淨銷售額 126 億美元，同比下降 2%。管理層將這一下滑歸因於其生活方式業務的下滑、數字銷售下降 10% 以及中國需求疲軟。首席財務官馬修·弗蘭德在財報電話會議上警告稱，這種下滑可能不是暫時的挫折，並警告稱 “未來幾個季度將充滿挑戰”。</p>
</div><p>Similar to Nike, Starbucks also faced slowing demand. Specifically, the beverage giant saw comparable sales fall 3% with 7% fewer transactions in fiscal Q2 2024 ended Mar. 31 compared to its fiscal Q2 2023. Overall, Starbucks generated $8.56 billion in net sales, resulting in a year-over-year decline of 1.8%. The drop in revenue and earnings is even more discouraging amid the backdrop of higher-than-average inflation and Starbucks opening 583 net-new stores during that time. Starbucks management also blamed a decline in store traffic and weak demand in China for the disappointing quarter. Looking ahead, Starbucks management has revised its revenue-growth guidance for fiscal 2024 from the previous range of 7% to 10% down to &#34;low single digits.&#34; Similarly, its earnings-per-share growth forecast has been adjusted from 15% to 20% to &#34;flat to low single digits.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與耐克類似，星巴克也面臨着需求放緩。具體來説，這家飲料巨頭在 2024 財年第二季度（截至 3 月 31 日）的可比銷售額下降了 3%，與 2023 財年第二季度相比，交易減少了 7%。總體而言，星巴克實現了 856 億美元的淨銷售額，同比下降了 1.8%。在高於平均水平的通貨膨脹和星巴克在此期間新開設 583 家淨店的背景下，收入和利潤的下降更加令人沮喪。星巴克管理層還將該季度的店鋪流量下降和中國需求疲軟歸咎於這一令人失望的季度。展望未來，星巴克管理層已將 2024 財年的收入增長預期從之前的 7% 至 10% 調整為 “低個位數”。同樣，其每股收益增長預期也從 15% 至 20% 調整為 “持平至低個位數”。</p>
</div><p>Looking at each company's bottom line, it's clear that Nike generated $1.5 billion in net income for its most recently reported quarter, representing 45% year-over-year growth in part due to its ability to expand its gross margin by 1.1%. For comparison, Starbucks generated $772 million in net income during its fiscal Q2 2024, equating to a 15% year-over-year decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從每家公司的淨利潤來看，很明顯，耐克在最近報告的季度實現了 15 億美元的淨利潤，同比增長 45%，部分原因是其成功將毛利率提高了 1.1%。相比之下，星巴克在其 2024 財年第二季度實現了 7.72 億美元的淨利潤，同比下降 15%。</p>
</div><p>Despite selling completely different consumer products, Nike and Starbucks face similar challenges. Still, this category goes to Nike, considering it grew its gross margin and net income despite its slowing sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管銷售完全不同的消費產品，耐克和星巴克面臨着類似的挑戰。然而，在這一類別中，耐克脱穎而出，因為儘管銷售放緩，但其毛利率和淨利潤仍在增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e6b2f6baa1ba14fc20d98b3dd45fcccb.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 季度營收數據。</p>
</div><h2>Nike and Starbucks prioritize dividends</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克和星巴克優先考慮股息</h2>
</div><p>For mature companies like Nike and Starbucks, shareholders expect to see capital returned to them by management in the form of dividends and share repurchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於像耐克和星巴克這樣的成熟公司，股東們希望看到管理層通過股息和股票回購的形式將資本返還給他們。</p>
</div><p>Nike currently pays a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share, equating to an annual yield of 2%. Notably, Nike has paid and raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years, demonstrating that returning capital to shareholders is a priority for management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克目前每股支付 0.37 美元的季度股息，年收益率為 2%。值得注意的是，耐克已連續 23 年支付並提高股息，表明將資本返還給股東是管理層的首要任務。</p>
</div><p>Comparably, Starbucks consistently pays and increases its dividend, with 13 consecutive years of dividend growth. Starbucks does pay a higher quarterly dividend at $0.57 per share, representing an annual yield of 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，星巴克持續支付並增加股息，已連續 13 年增長。星巴克每股支付的季度股息為 0.57 美元，年收益率為 3.1%。</p>
</div><p>Given the recent drop in each stock, its dividend yields are near an all-time high. But for any dividend-paying stock, it's important to examine its payout ratio, which measures the percentage of earnings it pays out to investors through dividends. Generally, a stock with a payout ratio of 75% or higher is when investors should worry that the company could potentially pause dividend increases or cut them altogether. Nike has a significantly lower payout ratio at 28.2% compared to Starbucks' 60.3%. That means investors can reasonably expect dividend increases in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到最近股價的下跌，它們的股息收益率接近歷史高位。但對於任何支付股息的股票，重要的是要檢查其派息比，該比率衡量了公司通過股息向投資者支付的盈利百分比。一般來説，當股息支付比率達到 75% 或更高時，投資者應擔心公司可能會暫停增加股息或完全削減股息。耐克的派息比為 28.2%，遠低於星巴克的 60.3%。這意味着投資者可以合理地期待未來股息增加。</p>
</div><p>Both companies have relatively pedestrian share-repurchase programs, with each having lowered its shares outstanding by less than 1% over the past three years. Nonetheless, both companies ensure that their shares aren't diluted and that shareholders' ownership stakes are growing, albeit slowly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兩家公司都有相對普通的股票回購計劃，過去三年內每家公司的流通股份減少不到 1%。儘管如此，兩家公司都確保其股份不會被稀釋，股東的所有權份額在緩慢增長。</p>
</div><p>The decision is a close call due to Nike's lower payout ratio and longer dividend-growth history, but let's give this category to Starbucks for the higher-annual yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於耐克的派息比較低且具有更長的股息增長曆史，這個決定很難做出，但讓我們將這個類別的勝利授予星巴克，因為其年度收益率更高。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9329ebcb54ca119b7271afba97d6d2ff.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Dividend Yield data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 股息收益率數據。</p>
</div><h2>The financial health of each company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>每家公司的財務健康狀況</h2>
</div><p>A company's balance sheet serves as a vital snapshot of its financial health. Notably, Nike boasts a superior cash position with $2.7 billion in net cash, starkly contrasting to Starbucks' $13.1 billion net debt. Impressively, Nike's net-cash position has surged by 498% year over year, while Starbucks' net debt has deteriorated by approximately 8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一家公司的資產負債表是其財務健康狀況的重要快照。值得注意的是，耐克擁有 27 億美元的淨現金，與星巴克 131 億美元的淨債務形成鮮明對比。令人印象深刻的是，耐克的淨現金頭寸同比增長了 498%，而星巴克的淨債務則下降了約 8%。</p>
</div><p>As a result, over the trailing 12 months, Nike earned $161 million in interest income compared to Starbucks, losing $446 million in interest expenses. At a time when interest rates are relatively high, Starbucks will likely see growing interest expenses in the years ahead, while Nike can earn extra income with its cash pile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，在過去 12 個月中，耐克獲得了 1.61 億美元的利息收入，而星巴克則損失了 4.46 億美元的利息支出。在利率相對較高的時候，星巴克可能會在未來幾年看到不斷增加的利息支出，而耐克則可以利用其現金儲備賺取額外收入。</p>
</div><p>With Nike's cash pile, the shoe and apparel behemoth wins this category in a landslide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>憑藉耐克的現金儲備，這家鞋服巨頭在這一類別中遙遙領先。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e2efa15928710a0ebf895dbdd5b22e6.png"/></p>
<p>NKE Net Financial Debt (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 NKE 淨財務債務數據。</p>
</div><h2>Is Nike or Starbucks the better buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克還是星巴克更值得購買？</h2>
</div><p>Given Nike and Starbucks' long, proven track records, the companies deserve some patience no matter how frustrating the recent financial and stock performance has been. This sentiment is especially true when considering both stocks are trading at or near a three-year low forward price-to-earnings ratio, which measures a company's current stock price to its expected earnings per share over the next 12 months, indicating both stocks are trading at cheap valuations. Specifically, Nike trades 23.1 times forward earnings, and Starbucks trades 20.8 times forward earnings. Still, if you have to pick between the two stocks, Nike is the clear winner due to its stronger cash position and stable earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到耐克和星巴克長期、經得起考驗的業績記錄，無論最近的財務和股票表現有多令人沮喪，這兩家公司都值得一些耐心。特別是當考慮到兩家公司的股票交易價格接近或達到三年來的低位前瞻市盈率時，即衡量公司當前股價與預期每股收益之比的指標，表明兩家公司的估值較低。具體來説，耐克的前瞻市盈率為 23.1 倍，星巴克的前瞻市盈率為 20.8 倍。然而，如果必須在這兩家公司中選擇，由於其更強勁的現金狀況和穩定的盈利能力，耐克是明顯的贏家。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/532d48a3334add9ebc1a4760168182c5.png"/></p>
<p>NKE PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 數據顯示的耐克前瞻市盈率（PE 比率）。</p>
</div>

當前最值得購買的股票：耐克 vs. 星巴克