<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg"/></p>
<p>澳元兑美元匯率本週繼續大幅下跌，因對澳大利亞和中國經濟的擔憂持續。澳元已連續八天下跌，這是去年 8 月以來最長的下跌週期。自 6 月份最高點以來，已下跌超過 3%。</p>
<h2>澳洲央行加息可能性下降</h2>
<p>在當前暴跌之前，澳元是表現最好的貨幣之一。今年最低點和最高點之間上漲了近 7%，因為澳大利亞央行（RBA）加息的可能性增加。</p>
<p>今年以來，澳洲央行一直是最鷹派的中央銀行之一。在最近的會議上，官員們甚至討論了因通脹水平升高而加息的利弊。</p>
<p>會員們決定不加息，而是警告稱，如果通脹持續高企，可能會加息。</p>
<p>最近的經濟數據顯示，該國的通脹呈下降趨勢，但仍高於 2% 的目標。首季的消費者價格指數（CPI）從 7.8% 的峯值下降至 3.6%。</p>
<p>與其他國家不同，澳大利亞每季度發佈其通脹數據，這意味着有一定的滯後性。它還發布每月的 CPI 指標，提供更多關於通脹趨勢的信息。最新數據顯示，5 月 CPI 上漲至 4.0%，高於預期的 3.8%。</p>
<p>儘管通脹數據穩定，分析師們現在認為澳洲央行今年不會加息。相反，該行將選擇長期保持較高利率，並在今年 12 月或 2024 年開始降息。彭博分析師在一份報告中表示：</p>
<p>“我們認為澳洲央行將選擇保持利率不變。首先，下一輪通脹數據應該會有所降温。什麼將左右決策的是澳洲央行對通脹預期的判斷以及通脹在 18-24 個月後的預測 — 我們認為央行可能會選擇長期保持高利率。”</p>
<p>週三發佈的數據顯示，服務業採購經理人指數從 6 月的 51.2 下降至 7 月的 50.8。製造業採購經理人指數略有上升至 47.4，意味着該行業仍在收縮。</p>
<h2>中國經濟數據</h2>
<p>澳元兑美元匯率也因中國的情況而下跌，中國是澳大利亞最大的貿易伙伴。最近數據顯示，中國 7 月份的工業生產和零售銷售下降，而第二季度經濟增長為 4.7%，低於分析師預期的 5.1%。</p>
<p>與此同時，北京在領導人會議上沒有宣佈任何刺激計劃。這意味着該國經濟可能無法達到今年 5% 的年度目標。</p>
<p>因此，澳大利亞大部分出口商品如鐵礦石和煤炭的價格在過去幾周下跌。其他工業金屬也出現回落。</p>
<h2>美聯儲和澳洲央行的決定</h2>
<p>下一個重要的澳元兑美元的消息將來自美國，美國將於週四發佈其第二季度 GDP 數據，週五發佈 7 月個人消費支出（PCE）數據。</p>
<p>經濟學家預計數據將顯示，第二季度經濟增長了 1.7%，而第一季度增長了 1.3%。從歷史上看，GDP 數據對美元影響不大。</p>
<p>市場認為，7 月 PCE 通脹數據將降至 2.4%，核心 PCE 將降至 2.5%。如果這些估計是正確的，這意味着通脹正在下降，這將受到美聯儲的青睞。</p>
<p>大多數分析師預計，美聯儲將在下週三將利率維持在 5.25% 至 5.50% 之間不變。該行還將指出今年將進行一次降息，官員們將等待下一輪經濟數據。</p>
<p>最重要的數據將是 7 月份的就業和通脹報告。如果數據顯示 7 月失業率再次上升，將增加 9 月降息的可能性。美聯儲指出，他們現在更關注勞動力市場而不是通脹。</p>
<p>澳洲央行將於 8 月 6 日宣佈其利率決定。</p>
<h2>澳元兑美元技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>澳元兑美元 TradingView 圖表</p>
<p>日線圖顯示，澳元正在持續下跌，已連續八天下跌。甚至已跌破 200 日指數移動平均線（EMA），接近 6 月 10 日的最低點 0.6576 的關鍵支撐位。跌破 200 EMA 被視為市場上極為熊市的跡象。</p>
<p>資金流指數（MFI）已跌破 50 的中性點，即將觸及超賣水平。此外，Awesome Oscillator 已穿越零線，動量指標向下傾斜。</p>
<p>因此，澳元兑美元可能會繼續下跌，賣方將瞄準 0.6500 的關鍵支撐位。然而，投資者買入低點時也可能出現短暫反彈。</p>
<p>澳元兑美元下跌至 200 EMA 以下的預測文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

裏奇兄弟拍賣

<p>AUD/USD 匯率由於對澳大利亞和中國經濟的擔憂而持續下跌。澳元已連續下跌八天，這是自去年 8 月以來最長的下跌週期，跌幅超過了自 6 月份最高點以來的 3%。分析師認為，澳大利亞聯邦儲備銀行（RBA）今年不會加息，並可能在 12 月或 2024 年開始降息。AUD/USD 貨幣對的下跌也受到中國經濟數據的影響，中國是澳大利亞最大的貿易伙伴。該貨幣對的下一則重要消息將來自美國，隨着第二季度 GDP 數據和 7 月 PCE 數據的發佈。預計美聯儲將維持利率不變，而 RBA 將於 8 月 6 日公佈其利率決定。澳元的下跌也反映在技術分析中，因為它已跌破了 200 日指數移動平均線（EMA）</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/RBA-reveals-that-80-of-Australians-know-about-crypto.jpg"/></p>
<p>The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its strong freefall this week as concerns about the Australian and Chinese economies continued. The Aussie has dropped for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since August last year. It has plunged by over 3% from its highest point in June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元匯率本週繼續大幅下跌，因對澳大利亞和中國經濟的擔憂持續。澳元已連續八天下跌，這是去年 8 月以來最長的下跌週期。自 6 月份最高點以來，已下跌超過 3%。</p>
</div><h2>Odds of RBA rate hike fall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳洲央行加息可能性下降</h2>
</div><p>The Australian dollar has been one of the best-performing currencies before the current plunge. It was up by almost 7% between its lowest and highest points this year as odds of a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rose.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在當前暴跌之前，澳元是表現最好的貨幣之一。今年最低點和最高點之間上漲了近 7%，因為澳大利亞央行（RBA）加息的可能性增加。</p>
</div><p>The RBA has been one of the most hawkish central banks this year. In its last meeting, the officials even deliberated the merits of hiking interest rates because of the elevated inflation levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年以來，澳洲央行一直是最鷹派的中央銀行之一。在最近的會議上，官員們甚至討論了因通脹水平升高而加息的利弊。</p>
</div><p>The members decided not to hike interest rates but, instead, warned that an increase may happen if inflation remains stubbornly high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會員們決定不加息，而是警告稱，如果通脹持續高企，可能會加息。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic numbers have shown that the country’s inflation has been in a downward trend but it remained above the 2% target. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from a peak of 7.8% to 3.6% in the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的經濟數據顯示，該國的通脹呈下降趨勢，但仍高於 2% 的目標。首季的消費者價格指數（CPI）從 7.8% 的峯值下降至 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Unlike other countries, Australia releases its inflation numbers quarterly, meaning that there is a lag. It also releases the monthly CPI indicator, which provides more information about inflation trends. The most recent data showed that the CPI rose to 4.0% in May, higher than the expected 3.8%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與其他國家不同，澳大利亞每季度發佈其通脹數據，這意味着有一定的滯後性。它還發布每月的 CPI 指標，提供更多關於通脹趨勢的信息。最新數據顯示，5 月 CPI 上漲至 4.0%，高於預期的 3.8%。</p>
</div><p>Despite the steady inflation numbers, analysts now believe that the RBA will not hike interest rates this year. Instead, the bank will opt to leave rates higher for longer and start cutting either in December or in 2024. In a note, a Bloomberg analyst said:</p>
<blockquote>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管通脹數據穩定，分析師們現在認為澳洲央行今年不會加息。相反，該行將選擇長期保持較高利率，並在今年 12 月或 2024 年開始降息。彭博分析師在一份報告中表示：</p>
</div><p>“Our bet is that the RBA will opt to hold. For one, the next inflation readings should be a little cooler. What will tip the balance will be the RBA’s judgment on inflation expectations and forecasts for where inflation will be in 18-24 months — we think the central bank will likely stay in a high-for-longer holding pattern.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們認為澳洲央行將選擇保持利率不變。首先，下一輪通脹數據應該會有所降温。什麼將左右決策的是澳洲央行對通脹預期的判斷以及通脹在 18-24 個月後的預測 — 我們認為央行可能會選擇長期保持高利率。”</p>
</div><p>Data released on Wednesday showed that the services PMI dropped from 51.2 in June to 50.8 in July. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 47.4, meaning that the sector is still contracting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三發佈的數據顯示，服務業採購經理人指數從 6 月的 51.2 下降至 7 月的 50.8。製造業採購經理人指數略有上升至 47.4，意味着該行業仍在收縮。</p>
</div><h2>China economic numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中國經濟數據</h2>
</div><p>The AUD/USD pair has also dropped because of the happenings in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. Recent data showed that the country’s industrial production and retail sales dropped in July while the economy grew by 4.7% in the second quarter, missing the analysts estimates of 5.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元匯率也因中國的情況而下跌，中國是澳大利亞最大的貿易伙伴。最近數據顯示，中國 7 月份的工業生產和零售銷售下降，而第二季度經濟增長為 4.7%，低於分析師預期的 5.1%。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, Beijing did not announce any stimulus package at the Third Plenum, a gathering of leaders. This means that the country’s economy may not reach its 5% annual target of this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，北京在領導人會議上沒有宣佈任何刺激計劃。這意味着該國經濟可能無法達到今年 5% 的年度目標。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the prices of most Australian exports like iron ore and coal have dropped in the past few weeks. Other industrial metals have also retreated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，澳大利亞大部分出口商品如鐵礦石和煤炭的價格在過去幾周下跌。其他工業金屬也出現回落。</p>
</div><h2>Federal Reserve and RBA decisions ahead</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲和澳洲央行的決定</h2>
</div><p>The next important AUD/USD news will come from the US, which will publish its Q2 GDP data on Thursday and July’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一個重要的澳元兑美元的消息將來自美國，美國將於週四發佈其第二季度 GDP 數據，週五發佈 7 月個人消費支出（PCE）數據。</p>
</div><p>Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 1.7% in Q2 after growing by 1.3% in Q1. Historically, the GDP data does not have a major impact on the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家預計數據將顯示，第二季度經濟增長了 1.7%，而第一季度增長了 1.3%。從歷史上看，GDP 數據對美元影響不大。</p>
</div><p>The market believes that the PCE inflation data eased to 2.4% in July while the core PCE fell to 2.5%. If these estimates are correct, they will mean that inflation is falling, which the Federal Reserve will love.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場認為，7 月 PCE 通脹數據將降至 2.4%，核心 PCE 將降至 2.5%。如果這些估計是正確的，這意味着通脹正在下降，這將受到美聯儲的青睞。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts expect that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50% on Wednesday next week. The bank will also point to one rate cut this year as officials waits for the next economic numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數分析師預計，美聯儲將在下週三將利率維持在 5.25% 至 5.50% 之間不變。該行還將指出今年將進行一次降息，官員們將等待下一輪經濟數據。</p>
</div><p>The top data to watch will be the July jobs and inflation report. If the data reveals that the unemployment rate rose again in July, it will increase the odds of a September interest rate cut. The Fed has noted that it was now more concerned about the labor market than inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的數據將是 7 月份的就業和通脹報告。如果數據顯示 7 月失業率再次上升，將增加 9 月降息的可能性。美聯儲指出，他們現在更關注勞動力市場而不是通脹。</p>
</div><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver its interest rate decision on August 6th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳洲央行將於 8 月 6 日宣佈其利率決定。</p>
</div><h2>AUD/USD technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>澳元兑美元技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/AUDUSD1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>AUD/USD chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元 TradingView 圖表</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the Australian dollar is falling apart as it fell for eight days straight. It has even fallen below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and is nearing the key support at 0.6576, its lowest point on June 10th. Moving below the 200 EMA is seen as a highly bearish sign in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，澳元正在持續下跌，已連續八天下跌。甚至已跌破 200 日指數移動平均線（EMA），接近 6 月 10 日的最低點 0.6576 的關鍵支撐位。跌破 200 EMA 被視為市場上極為熊市的跡象。</p>
</div><p>The Money Flow Index (MFI) has moved below the neutral point at 50 and is about to hit its oversold level. Also, the Awesome Oscillator has crossed the zero line while the momentum indicator has tilted downwards.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資金流指數（MFI）已跌破 50 的中性點，即將觸及超賣水平。此外，Awesome Oscillator 已穿越零線，動量指標向下傾斜。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 0.6500. However, a brief comeback is also possible as investors buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，澳元兑美元可能會繼續下跌，賣方將瞄準 0.6500 的關鍵支撐位。然而，投資者買入低點時也可能出現短暫反彈。</p>
</div><p>The post AUD/USD forecast as the Australian dollar slips below the 200 EMA appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳元兑美元下跌至 200 EMA 以下的預測文章首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

澳元/美元預測：澳元跌破 200 日均線