<p><strong>耐克</strong>（NKE -1.95%）股價於 2021 年 11 月 5 日達到歷史最高水平 172.49 美元。當時，投資者對其從疫情中快速復甦、耐克直營業務持續擴張以及在中國市場強勁增長印象深刻。</p>
<p>然而，耐克股票現在交易價格比歷史最高點低近 60%。讓我們通過四張簡單的圖表來回顧這一下跌情況以及到底發生了什麼。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：耐克。</p>
<h2>1. 營收增長停滯</h2>
<p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年（截至今年 5 月），耐克的營收以年複合增長率（CAGR）達到 8%。但在不考慮匯率影響的情況下，由於在低端市場面臨宏觀風險、中國實體店銷售疲軟、歐洲、中東和非洲地區需求不穩定以及部分經典鞋類產品需求疲軟，2024 財年的營收僅增長了 1%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
<p>耐克預計這種放緩將加劇，2025 財年報告的營收預計將出現中單位數下降。分析師們預計將下降 5%。</p>
<h2>2. 耐克直營失去動力</h2>
<p>過去幾年，耐克的核心增長策略一直是擴大耐克直營業務，即直銷業務（DTC），負責管理其自營線上和實體店。這種擴張通過剔除批發零售商提高了其毛利率，擴大了對第三方電子商務市場的壕溝，使其更加控制自己的供應鏈和定價策略。</p>
<p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年，耐克直營業務的營收以 15% 的 CAGR 增長，而批發業務的營收僅以 5% 的 CAGR 增長。2024 財年，耐克 42% 的銷售額來自耐克直營業務，相比之下，2020 財年為 40%。不幸的是，這個增長引擎在 2024 財年也出現了停滯。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
<p>在今年 4 月的一次 CNBC 採訪中，CEO 約翰·多納霍承認，耐克在其積極擴張的直銷業務中&#34;過度偏離了批發業務，超出了我們的意圖&#34;，並且現在&#34;大力投資&#34;於其批發零售合作伙伴以平衡業務。多納霍表示，這種轉變將減輕其運營利潤和庫存的一些壓力，但也表明公司正在耗盡提升自有收入的新方法。</p>
<h2>3. 在中國市場增長乏力</h2>
<p>與許多其他美國品牌一樣，耐克曾將中國視為其下一個主要增長市場。通過 2021 財年，它在大中華地區實現了連續七年的雙位數貨幣中性基礎上的營收增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
<p>但在過去三年中，耐克在中國業務失去了動力。中國嚴格的&#34;零 COVID&#34;封鎖措施阻礙了其經濟復甦，消費支出放緩，耐克面臨來自國內競爭對手如安踏體育（持有 FILA 在中國的權利）和李寧的激烈競爭。</p>
<h2>4. 毛利率不盡人意</h2>
<p>在 2023 財年，由於在通貨膨脹環境中應對更高的折扣和物流成本，耐克的毛利率下降。然而，在 2024 財年，隨着控制這些折扣、銷售更多價格更高的產品以及受益於較低的物流和運費支出，其毛利率再次擴大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="378" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
<p>耐克預計其 2025 財年毛利率將提高 10 至 30 個基點。這一前景令人鼓舞，但仍低於其增長較快的競爭對手如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Lululemon</strong>，它們在最新季度分別報告了 59.7% 和 57.7% 的毛利率。</p>
<h2>那麼，耐克是一個潛在的扭轉局面的投資機會嗎？</h2>
<p>儘管耐克的毛利率正在上升，但分析師們仍預計其 2025 財年的盈利將下降 21%，因為其營收增長停滯。其股票可能看起來以 23 倍的市盈率合理價值，但如果無法穩定營收，股價可能會下跌。因此，我建議暫時遠離耐克，直到出現一些真正的好轉跡象。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克的股票因多種因素而經歷了顯著下跌，包括收入增長停滯、耐克直營業務放緩、中國增長乏力以及毛利率不佳等。分析師預計在 2025 財年，盈利將進一步下滑。投資者在考慮投資耐克之前應謹慎行事，並等待改善跡象的出現</p>

<p><strong>Nike</strong>'s (NKE -1.95%) stock hit an all-time high of $172.49 on Nov. 5, 2021. At the time, investors were impressed by its quick recovery from the pandemic, the ongoing expansion of its Nike Direct business, and its robust growth in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>耐克</strong>（NKE -1.95%）股價於 2021 年 11 月 5 日達到歷史最高水平 172.49 美元。當時，投資者對其從疫情中快速復甦、耐克直營業務持續擴張以及在中國市場強勁增長印象深刻。</p>
</div><p>However, Nike shares now trade nearly 60% below that record high. Let's review that decline -- and what exactly happened -- in four simple charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，耐克股票現在交易價格比歷史最高點低近 60%。讓我們通過四張簡單的圖表來回顧這一下跌情況以及到底發生了什麼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvZ3JvdXBfb2ZfbmlrZV9zaG9lc19wb3NlZF9ua2UuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fgroup_of_nike_shoes_posed_nke.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：耐克。</p>
</div><h2>1. Its revenue growth flatlined</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 營收增長停滯</h2>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to 2024 (which ended this May), Nike's revenue increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%. But on a constant currency basis, its revenue rose just 1% in fiscal 2024 as it dealt with macro headwinds in the lower-end market, soft brick-and-mortar sales in China, uneven demand across its EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region, and weak demand for some of its classic footwear franchises.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年（截至今年 5 月），耐克的營收以年複合增長率（CAGR）達到 8%。但在不考慮匯率影響的情況下，由於在低端市場面臨宏觀風險、中國實體店銷售疲軟、歐洲、中東和非洲地區需求不穩定以及部分經典鞋類產品需求疲軟，2024 財年的營收僅增長了 1%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1jdXJyZW5jeS1uZXV0cmFsLXJldmVudWUtZ3Jvd3RoLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
</div><p>Nike expects that slowdown to deepen, with a mid-single-digit drop in its reported revenue in fiscal 2025. Analysts are bracing for a 5% decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克預計這種放緩將加劇，2025 財年報告的營收預計將出現中單位數下降。分析師們預計將下降 5%。</p>
</div><h2>2. Nike Direct lost its momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 耐克直營失去動力</h2>
</div><p>Nike's core growth strategy over the past several years has been the expansion of Nike Direct, its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business that handles its first-party online and brick-and-mortar stores. That expansion boosted its gross margin by cutting wholesale retailers out of the loop, widened its moat against third-party e-commerce marketplaces, and gave it tighter control over its own supply chain and pricing strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年，耐克的核心增長策略一直是擴大耐克直營業務，即直銷業務（DTC），負責管理其自營線上和實體店。這種擴張通過剔除批發零售商提高了其毛利率，擴大了對第三方電子商務市場的壕溝，使其更加控制自己的供應鏈和定價策略。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2020 to 2024, Nike Direct's revenue rose at a CAGR of 15% as its wholesale revenue only increased at a CAGR of 5%. Nike generated 42% of its sales from Nike Direct in fiscal 2024, compared to 40% of its revenue in fiscal 2020. Unfortunately, that growth engine also sputtered out in fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2020 財年到 2024 財年，耐克直營業務的營收以 15% 的 CAGR 增長，而批發業務的營收僅以 5% 的 CAGR 增長。2024 財年，耐克 42% 的銷售額來自耐克直營業務，相比之下，2020 財年為 40%。不幸的是，這個增長引擎在 2024 財年也出現了停滯。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1kaXJlY3QtY3VycmVuY3ktbmV1dHJhbC1yZXZlbnVlLWdyb3d0aC1meS0yMDIwLTIwMjQucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-direct-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
</div><p>During a CNBC interview this April, CEO John Donahoe admitted that Nike had &#34;over-rotated away from wholesale a little more than we intended&#34; in its aggressive DTC expansion, and that it was now &#34;investing heavily&#34; in its wholesale retail partners to balance its business. Donahoe claims that shift will alleviate some of the pressure on its operating margin and inventories, but it also suggests the company is running out of fresh ways to boost its first-party revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年 4 月的一次 CNBC 採訪中，CEO 約翰·多納霍承認，耐克在其積極擴張的直銷業務中&#34;過度偏離了批發業務，超出了我們的意圖&#34;，並且現在&#34;大力投資&#34;於其批發零售合作伙伴以平衡業務。多納霍表示，這種轉變將減輕其運營利潤和庫存的一些壓力，但也表明公司正在耗盡提升自有收入的新方法。</p>
</div><h2>3. Its lackluster growth in China</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 在中國市場增長乏力</h2>
</div><p>Nike, like many other American brands, once considered China its next major growth market. It generated double-digit revenue increases in the Greater China region on a currency-neutral basis for <em>seven consecutive years</em> through fiscal 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與許多其他美國品牌一樣，耐克曾將中國視為其下一個主要增長市場。通過 2021 財年，它在大中華地區實現了連續七年的雙位數貨幣中性基礎上的營收增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1ncmVhdGVyLWNoaW5hLWN1cnJlbmN5LW5ldXRyYWwtcmV2ZW51ZS1ncm93dGgtZnktMjAyMC0yMDI0LTEucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-greater-china-currency-neutral-revenue-growth-fy-2020-2024-1.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
</div><p>But over the past three years, Nike's Chinese business lost its momentum. China's draconian &#34;zero COVID&#34; lockdowns stunted its economic recovery, consumer spending slowed, and Nike faced intense competition from domestic competitors like <strong>Anta Sports</strong> (which owns the Chinese rights to FILA) and <strong>Li-Ning</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在過去三年中，耐克在中國業務失去了動力。中國嚴格的&#34;零 COVID&#34;封鎖措施阻礙了其經濟復甦，消費支出放緩，耐克面臨來自國內競爭對手如安踏體育（持有 FILA 在中國的權利）和李寧的激烈競爭。</p>
</div><h2>4. Its unimpressive gross margin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 毛利率不盡人意</h2>
</div><p>Nike's gross margin declined in fiscal 2023 as it grappled with steeper markdowns and higher logistics costs in an inflationary environment. However, its gross margin expanded again in fiscal 2024 as it reined in those discounts, sold a higher mix of more expensive products, and benefited from lower logistics and freight expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 財年，由於在通貨膨脹環境中應對更高的折扣和物流成本，耐克的毛利率下降。然而，在 2024 財年，隨着控制這些折扣、銷售更多價格更高的產品以及受益於較低的物流和運費支出，其毛利率再次擴大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQwNzYvbmlrZS1hbm51YWwtZ3Jvc3MtbWFyZ2luLWZ5LTIwMjAtMjAyNC5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784076%2Fnike-annual-gross-margin-fy-2020-2024.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Nike. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：耐克。圖表製作：作者。</p>
</div><p>Nike expects its gross margin to rise 10 to 30 basis points in fiscal 2025. That outlook is encouraging, but it's still lower than its higher-growth competitors like <strong>On Holding</strong> and <strong>Lululemon</strong>, which reported gross margins of 59.7% and 57.7%, respectively, in their latest quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克預計其 2025 財年毛利率將提高 10 至 30 個基點。這一前景令人鼓舞，但仍低於其增長較快的競爭對手如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Lululemon</strong>，它們在最新季度分別報告了 59.7% 和 57.7% 的毛利率。</p>
</div><h2>So is Nike a potential turnaround play?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>那麼，耐克是一個潛在的扭轉局面的投資機會嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Nike's gross margin is rising, but analysts still expect its earnings to drop 21% in fiscal 2025 as its revenue growth stalls out. Its stock might seem reasonably valued at 23 times forward earnings, but the shares could head lower if it fails to stabilize its top line. So for now, I'd stay far away from Nike until a few green shoots actually appear.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管耐克的毛利率正在上升，但分析師們仍預計其 2025 財年的盈利將下降 21%，因為其營收增長停滯。其股票可能看起來以 23 倍的市盈率合理價值，但如果無法穩定營收，股價可能會下跌。因此，我建議暫時遠離耐克，直到出現一些真正的好轉跡象。</p>
</div>

為什麼耐克的股票在 4 張簡單的圖表中暴跌了 60%