<p>美國運通（American Express，簡稱 Amex）是一家信用卡發行公司，於 7 月 19 日公佈了其第二季度業績。儘管營收略低於預期並顯示出消費者支出放緩的跡象，但業績仍然不錯。美國運通在第二季度表現出色的信用質量，結合旨在擴大市場份額的營銷策略，表明公司的財務狀況正朝着正確的方向發展。雖然股價接近歷史最高點，但相較於同行，仍然以較低的估值倍數交易，我對美國運通的長期看漲前景仍然堅定。</p>
<h2><strong>美國運通第二季度業績回顧</strong></h2>
<p>總部位於紐約市的信用卡發行公司在其六月季度交出了一份褒貶不一的成績單。公司的每股收益（EPS）顯著超出預期，達到每股 4.15 美元，而預期為每股 3.26 美元，同比增長 43.6%。然而，營收略低，為 163.3 億美元，幾乎比華爾街預期低 2%，儘管同比增長了 8.5%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="309" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg"/></p>
<p>業績公佈後股價下跌了 2.7%，反映出褒貶不一的業績。鑑於美國運通在信用卡市場的高端定位，市場對其期望特別高。</p>
<p>由於持續高利率導致低端消費者支出放緩的擔憂現在已擴展到高端消費者，而高端消費者是美國運通的核心客户羣。美國消費者支出從上季度的 8.5% 放緩至 6.5%，旅行和娛樂支出有所減少。商品和服務支出增速也有所放緩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="563" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
<p>最終，交易量和付費持卡人數應是美國運通收入的主要驅動因素。觀察美國運通第二季度的總網絡交易量，報告為 4,410 億美元，同比增長 3%。</p>
<p>雖然略低於約 4480 億美元的共識預期，但仍較第一季度的 4,190 億美元和去年同期的 4,270 億美元有所增長。儘管如此，淨卡費報告為 20.6 億美元，同比增長 15%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，我認為業績還算不錯，因為核心業務表現依然強勁。據管理層稱，堅實的勢頭使得營銷投資較去年增加 15%，而不依賴於任何交易收益（如 Accertify 的出售）。換句話説，這反映出美國運通相對於競爭對手更為積極，旨在奪取更大市場份額。</p>
<p>近年來，美國運通新增了 2300 萬新持卡人，包括許多來自 Z 世代和千禧一代。此前，公司難以吸引年輕客户，但情況正在改變。在第二季度，來自千禧一代和 Z 世代的增長佔美國運通總賬單的 33%，約佔公司全球新客户的 60%。</p>
<h2><strong>信用質量更顯重要</strong></h2>
<p>在信用質量方面，美國運通擁有行業內最高的標準之一。</p>
<p>美國運通約 23% 的營收與信用質量相關。這意味着其總收入中較小部分取決於客户的信用管理情況。公司更多依賴其他類型的收入，比如折扣收入，如下圖所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="529" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
<p>第二季度，信用質量保持強勁。信用損失準備金總額為 12.7 億美元，略高於實際核銷的 11.7 億美元。這表明美國運通預留的資金超過當前需要覆蓋壞賬。</p>
<p>淨核銷率為 2.1%，與第一季度持平，略優於疫情前的 2.2%，表明有效的信用風險管理。此外，第二季度逾期 30 天以上的賬户比率為 1.2%，低於疫情前的 1.5%。這意味着較少客户拖欠付款，這是財務健康和信用價值的積極跡象。</p>
<p>總體而言，美國運通的信用質量表明高端美國消費者似乎處於良好的財務狀況。然而，投資者正在密切關注通貨膨脹是否會在未來影響支出。隨着許多新持卡人，包括 Z 世代和千禧一代，這對公司來説是一個新情景。目前看來仍然受控，但這是需要密切關注的事項。</p>
<h2><strong>關於美國運通股票</strong></h2>
<p>儘管美國運通的六月季度表現並不出色，尤其是對高端消費者支出的擔憂，但財務業績仍表明公司正朝着正確的方向發展。美國運通將其 2024 年每股收益指引提高至 13.30-13.80 美元，高於之前的 12.65-13.15 美元範圍。如果達到較高端，將代表約 17.4% 的年增長，高於 Visa（V）和萬事達卡（MA）等同行，2024 年的共識每股收益增長分別為 13.1% 和 16.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="509" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
<p>然而，市場似乎沒有給予美國運通公平的估值倍數。美國運通股票的前瞻市盈率為 18.4 倍，而 Visa 為 25.6 倍，萬事達卡為 30.3 倍。美國運通的前瞻市盈率比過去五年的歷史平均值低 3%，股價非常接近歷史最高點，表明估值較為適中。</p>
<p>我相信美國運通股票應該會繼續上漲，因為利率上升的情況將會持續更長時間，這對於貸款人來説是個好消息。在當前情況下，美國運通的交易量和付費持卡人數量不斷提高，對持卡人公司來説，情況應該會繼續良好。</p>
<h2><strong>根據分析師的觀點，AXP 值得買入嗎？</strong></h2>
<p>華爾街對美國運通的共識主要是看漲的，評級為中等買入。在覆蓋該公司的 18 位分析師中，有 7 位看漲，9 位中立，2 位看跌。平均的 AXP 股價目標為 247.81 美元，顯示最新股價相比有輕微的 3.2% 上漲潛力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="964" height="732" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png"/></p>
<p><strong>查看更多 AXP 分析師評級</strong></p>
<h2><strong>要點</strong></h2>
<p>美國運通的第二季度業績表現穩健，儘管不完美，存在對高端消費支出的輕微擔憂，以及對營收預期的輕微錯過。公司強勁而穩定的信用質量表明，即使營收增長適中，底線仍將繼續強勁增長。它有可能表現優於同行，而同行股票交易價格顯著溢價。</p>
<p>展望長期，消費支出不太可能多年受到壓力，美國運通也不太可能失去對核心客户的吸引力。如果情況仍然如此，AXP 可能會繼續上漲並創下新的歷史高點。</p>
<p>披露</p>

美國運通

<p>美國運通報告稱，第二季度業績表現參差不齊，略有營收不及預期，但信用質量強勁。該公司旨在通過吸引新持卡人，包括千禧一代和 Z 世代，來擴大市場份額。儘管存在對高端消費支出和通貨膨脹的擔憂，美國運通仍然在正確的軌道上，並提高了其 2024 年的每股收益指引。總體而言，該公司的長期前景仍然強勁</p>

<p>Credit card lender American Express (AXP), or simply Amex, reported its Q2 results on July 19. Despite a slight miss on revenue expectations and signs of slowing consumer spending, the results were decent. Amex’s strong credit quality in Q2, combined with marketing strategies aimed at expanding market share, indicates that the company’s financials are on the right track. With a solid long-term business and a share price that, while near its all-time highs, still trades at a lower valuation multiple compared to its peers, my long-term bullish outlook for AXP remains strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國運通（American Express，簡稱 Amex）是一家信用卡發行公司，於 7 月 19 日公佈了其第二季度業績。儘管營收略低於預期並顯示出消費者支出放緩的跡象，但業績仍然不錯。美國運通在第二季度表現出色的信用質量，結合旨在擴大市場份額的營銷策略，表明公司的財務狀況正朝着正確的方向發展。雖然股價接近歷史最高點，但相較於同行，仍然以較低的估值倍數交易，我對美國運通的長期看漲前景仍然堅定。</p>
</div><h2><strong>American Express’ Q2 Earnings Review</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>美國運通第二季度業績回顧</strong></h2>
</div><p>The New York City-based credit card lender delivered mixed results for its June quarter. The company beat EPS estimates significantly, posting $4.15 per share compared to the expected $3.26, marking a year-over-year improvement of 43.6%. However, revenue fell slightly short, coming in at $16.33 billion, nearly 2% below Wall Street’s expectations, despite an 8.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總部位於紐約市的信用卡發行公司在其六月季度交出了一份褒貶不一的成績單。公司的每股收益（EPS）顯著超出預期，達到每股 4.15 美元，而預期為每股 3.26 美元，同比增長 43.6%。然而，營收略低，為 163.3 億美元，幾乎比華爾街預期低 2%，儘管同比增長了 8.5%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.47-1024x309.jpeg"/></p>
<p>The 2.7% drop in stock price post-earnings reflected the mixed results. Given American Express’s premium positioning in the credit card market, expectations are particularly high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>業績公佈後股價下跌了 2.7%，反映出褒貶不一的業績。鑑於美國運通在信用卡市場的高端定位，市場對其期望特別高。</p>
</div><p>Concerns about a slowdown among lower-end consumers due to persistent high interest rates have now extended to high-end consumers, who make up American Express’s core base. U.S. consumer spending slowed to 6.5% from 8.5% last quarter, with moderated spending in travel &amp; entertainment. Growth in goods &amp; services spending has also decelerated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於持續高利率導致低端消費者支出放緩的擔憂現在已擴展到高端消費者，而高端消費者是美國運通的核心客户羣。美國消費者支出從上季度的 8.5% 放緩至 6.5%，旅行和娛樂支出有所減少。商品和服務支出增速也有所放緩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-11.50-1024x563.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, the volume of transactions and the number of fee-paying cardholders should be the primary drivers of American Express’ revenues. Looking at American Express’ total network volume for Q2, it reported $441 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，交易量和付費持卡人數應是美國運通收入的主要驅動因素。觀察美國運通第二季度的總網絡交易量，報告為 4,410 億美元，同比增長 3%。</p>
</div><p>This fell short of the consensus expectation of around $448 billion but still represents growth from $419 billion in Q1 and $427 billion in the same quarter last year. Despite this, net card fees were reported at $2.06 billion, reflecting a 15% annual increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然略低於約 4480 億美元的共識預期，但仍較第一季度的 4,190 億美元和去年同期的 4,270 億美元有所增長。儘管如此，淨卡費報告為 20.6 億美元，同比增長 15%。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, I view the results as decent, given that the core business performance remains strong. According to management, the solid momentum allows for a 15% increase in marketing investments compared to last year, without relying on any transactional gains (such as the sale of Accertify). In other words, this reflects a more aggressive stance by American Express in relation to competitors, aiming to capture a larger market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，我認為業績還算不錯，因為核心業務表現依然強勁。據管理層稱，堅實的勢頭使得營銷投資較去年增加 15%，而不依賴於任何交易收益（如 Accertify 的出售）。換句話説，這反映出美國運通相對於競爭對手更為積極，旨在奪取更大市場份額。</p>
</div><p>In recent years, American Express has added 23 million new cardholders, including many from Gen Z and Millennials. Previously, the company struggled to attract younger customers, but that’s been changing. In Q2, growth from Millennials and Gen Z accounted for 33% of Amex’s total billings and represents roughly 60% of the company’s new customers worldwide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，美國運通新增了 2300 萬新持卡人，包括許多來自 Z 世代和千禧一代。此前，公司難以吸引年輕客户，但情況正在改變。在第二季度，來自千禧一代和 Z 世代的增長佔美國運通總賬單的 33%，約佔公司全球新客户的 60%。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Credit Quality Speaks Louder</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>信用質量更顯重要</strong></h2>
</div><p>When it comes to credit quality, American Express has some of the highest standards in the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在信用質量方面，美國運通擁有行業內最高的標準之一。</p>
</div><p>About 23% of American Express’s revenue is linked to credit quality. This means a smaller portion of its total revenue depends on how well customers manage their credit. The company relies more on other types of revenue, such as Discount revenue, as you can see below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國運通約 23% 的營收與信用質量相關。這意味着其總收入中較小部分取決於客户的信用管理情況。公司更多依賴其他類型的收入，比如折扣收入，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.16-1024x529.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
</div><p>In Q2, credit quality remained strong. The total provision for credit losses was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than the $1.17 billion in actual write-offs. This suggests American Express is setting aside more funds than it currently needs to cover bad debts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二季度，信用質量保持強勁。信用損失準備金總額為 12.7 億美元，略高於實際核銷的 11.7 億美元。這表明美國運通預留的資金超過當前需要覆蓋壞賬。</p>
</div><p>The net write-off rate was 2.1%, stable compared to Q1 and slightly better than the pre-pandemic rate of 2.2%, indicating effective credit risk management. Additionally, the rate of accounts 30+ days past due was 1.2% in Q2, down from the pre-pandemic rate of 1.5%. This means fewer customers are falling behind on payments, which is a positive sign of financial health and creditworthiness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨核銷率為 2.1%，與第一季度持平，略優於疫情前的 2.2%，表明有效的信用風險管理。此外，第二季度逾期 30 天以上的賬户比率為 1.2%，低於疫情前的 1.5%。這意味着較少客户拖欠付款，這是財務健康和信用價值的積極跡象。</p>
</div><p>Overall, American Express’s credit quality indicates that higher-end American consumers appear to be in decent financial shape. However, investors are watching closely to see if inflation will start impacting spending in the future. With many new card members, including Gen Z and Millennials, this is a new scenario for the company. It still appears to be under control, but it’s something to keep an eye on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，美國運通的信用質量表明高端美國消費者似乎處於良好的財務狀況。然而，投資者正在密切關注通貨膨脹是否會在未來影響支出。隨着許多新持卡人，包括 Z 世代和千禧一代，這對公司來説是一個新情景。目前看來仍然受控，但這是需要密切關注的事項。</p>
</div><h2><strong>On AXP Stock</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>關於美國運通股票</strong></h2>
</div><p>While the June quarter for American Express wasn’t outstanding, especially with concerns about high-end consumer spending, the financial results still suggest the company is on the right track. Amex raised its 2024 EPS guidance to $13.30-$13.80, up from the previous range of $12.65-$13.15. If the higher end is achieved, it will represent an annual increase of around 17.4%, higher compared to peers like Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), with consensus EPS growth for 2024 at 13.1% and 16.4%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美國運通的六月季度表現並不出色，尤其是對高端消費者支出的擔憂，但財務業績仍表明公司正朝着正確的方向發展。美國運通將其 2024 年每股收益指引提高至 13.30-13.80 美元，高於之前的 12.65-13.15 美元範圍。如果達到較高端，將代表約 17.4% 的年增長，高於 Visa（V）和萬事達卡（MA）等同行，2024 年的共識每股收益增長分別為 13.1% 和 16.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Image-24-07-24-at-12.22-1024x509.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: AXP’s Q2 Investor Presentation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：美國運通第二季度投資者展示</p>
</div><p>However, the market doesn’t seem to be giving American Express a fair multiple for this growth. Amex stock trades at a forward P/E of 18.4x, while Visa’s is 25.6x and Mastercard’s is 30.3x. AXP’s forward P/E is 3% below its historical average over the past five years, and the stock is very close to its all-time high, suggesting a moderate valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市場似乎沒有給予美國運通公平的估值倍數。美國運通股票的前瞻市盈率為 18.4 倍，而 Visa 為 25.6 倍，萬事達卡為 30.3 倍。美國運通的前瞻市盈率比過去五年的歷史平均值低 3%，股價非常接近歷史最高點，表明估值較為適中。</p>
</div><p>I believe that AXP shares should continue climbing since elevated interest rates are here to stay for longer, which is good news for lenders in general. While Amex’s volume figures and number of fee-paying cardholders keep improving in the current scenario, things should keep going fine for the cardholder company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我相信美國運通股票應該會繼續上漲，因為利率上升的情況將會持續更長時間，這對於貸款人來説是個好消息。在當前情況下，美國運通的交易量和付費持卡人數量不斷提高，對持卡人公司來説，情況應該會繼續良好。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is AXP A Buy, According to Analysts?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>根據分析師的觀點，AXP 值得買入嗎？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Wall Street consensus on AXP is predominantly bullish, with a Moderate Buy rating. Of the 18 analysts covering the company, seven are bullish, nine are neutral, and two are bearish. The average AXP stock price target is $247.81, indicating a timid 3.2% upside potential from the most recent share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街對美國運通的共識主要是看漲的，評級為中等買入。在覆蓋該公司的 18 位分析師中，有 7 位看漲，9 位中立，2 位看跌。平均的 AXP 股價目標為 247.81 美元，顯示最新股價相比有輕微的 3.2% 上漲潛力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/image-934.png"/></p>
<p><strong>See more AXP analyst ratings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看更多 AXP 分析師評級</strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Key Takeaway</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>要點</strong></h2>
</div><p>American Express’ second-quarter results were solid, though not flawless, given slight concerns about high-end consumer spending and a slight miss on top-line estimates. The company’s robust and stable credit quality indicates that, even with moderate top-line growth, the bottom line should continue to grow strongly. It could potentially outperform peers, which trade at a significant premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國運通的第二季度業績表現穩健，儘管不完美，存在對高端消費支出的輕微擔憂，以及對營收預期的輕微錯過。公司強勁而穩定的信用質量表明，即使營收增長適中，底線仍將繼續強勁增長。它有可能表現優於同行，而同行股票交易價格顯著溢價。</p>
</div><p>Looking out to the long term, it’s unlikely that consumer spending will remain pressured for years or that American Express will lose its appeal to its core customers. If this remains the case, AXP could keep rising and hit new all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望長期，消費支出不太可能多年受到壓力，美國運通也不太可能失去對核心客户的吸引力。如果情況仍然如此，AXP 可能會繼續上漲並創下新的歷史高點。</p>
</div><p>Disclosure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>披露</p>
</div>

美國運通股票（NYSE:AXP）：儘管存在短期擔憂，長期表現依然強勁