<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="8256" height="5504" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg"/></p>
<p>薯條可能看起來是一道簡單的配菜，但其需求情況揭示了更廣泛經濟趨勢的許多信息。</p>
<p>最近來自藍威斯頓的數據顯示，作為麥當勞主要供應冷凍土豆的公司，突顯了快餐和更廣泛經濟格局中的重大變化。</p>
<p>該公司最新的收益報告突顯了超出薯條訂單減少之外的挑戰。</p>
<h2>隨着快餐流量下降超過 4%，薯條需求下降</h2>
<p>在麥當勞點薯條似乎很簡單，但這在很大程度上依賴於總部位於愛達荷州的藍威斯頓公司，該公司種植、加工和運送土豆給麥當勞。</p>
<p>藍威斯頓的命運與顧客點多少薯條密切相關。最近，該公司報告稱，在麥當勞等快餐連鎖店的流量減少，漢堡專門餐廳的流量下降超過 4%。</p>
<p>儘管 “薯條附加率” 較高——即顧客將薯條加入訂單的比例——但由於參觀這些餐廳的顧客減少，總體薯條需求下降。</p>
<h2>衍生需求導致土豆訂單下降</h2>
<p>這種情況體現了關於需求的基本經濟原則。經濟學家瞭解到，當收入、互補和替代產品、買家數量以及效用等決定因素髮生變化時，需求曲線會發生變化。</p>
<p>在這裏，麥當勞薯條銷售的減少導致了對藍威斯頓冷凍土豆需求的降低。</p>
<p>這是一個典型的衍生需求案例，其中對一個商品（冷凍土豆）的需求受到另一個商品（快餐）需求的驅動。</p>
<h2>藍威斯頓的營收下降 5%，股價下跌超過 25%</h2>
<p>作為一家價值 80 億美元的全球公司，藍威斯頓在一份令人失望的收益報告後價值暴跌。</p>
<p>該公司的營收下降了 5%，其盈利大幅下滑，導致前景黯淡。</p>
<p>藍威斯頓的首席執行官湯姆·沃納將業績不佳歸因於幾個因素，包括有針對性的價格投資、為保持質量標準而自願撤回產品、意外市場份額損失、不利的產品組合以及美國和主要國際市場中餐廳流量低於預期。</p>
<h2>快餐價格上漲導致消費者行為轉變</h2>
<p>然而，核心問題更簡單：快餐餐廳的表現一直在下滑。</p>
<p>根據 Truist 的餐廳分析師傑克·巴特利特的説法，快餐連鎖店最近的疲軟主要是由於價格上漲適得其反。</p>
<p>快餐價格上漲縮小了價值優勢，推動消費者要麼升級到 Chipotle 等快速休閒選項，要麼降級到雜貨店，那裏的價格上漲較小。</p>
<p>這顯著影響了快餐店的流量。</p>
<h2>疫情引發的中斷和通脹影響餐廳利潤</h2>
<p>疫情導致餐飲行業出現重大中斷，最初的封鎖導致需求崩潰，隨後消費者花費積累的儲蓄。</p>
<p>供應鏈問題進一步加劇了問題，導致通脹和各個領域的價格上漲。包括麥當勞在內的餐廳提高了價格以保護利潤率。</p>
<p>這在麥當勞的營運利潤中明顯，疫情後增加，但隨着消費者消費模式的轉變，面臨挑戰。</p>
<p>藍威斯頓的疫情表現和未來展望</p>
<p>藍威斯頓在疫情期間蓬勃發展，季度銷售激增。這種增長吸引了投資者的興趣，在 2022 年初至 2023 年中，該公司股價翻倍。然而，銷售增長主要是由價格上漲而非量增長驅動的。</p>
<p>首席執行官承認了這一點，表示未來的銷售增長需要以量為驅動，專注於銷售更多土豆而非提高價格。</p>
<p>這種戰略轉變至關重要，因為競爭迫使降價。藍威斯頓未來的營收和利潤增長將取決於增加銷售量、改善產品組合和實現成本節約。</p>
<p>在疫情期間依賴價格上漲的做法不再可持續，需要專注於銷售更多產品以推動增長。</p>
<h2>通脹和供應鏈問題仍然存在</h2>
<p>藍威斯頓的故事説明了疫情帶來的經濟中斷仍在影響資產價格。通脹持續不均勻解決，其影響仍在持續。</p>
<p>公司最近的財務表現顯示了在實時導航經濟中的挑戰。加工土豆是一個商品行業，使得藍威斯頓等公司成為價格接受者。</p>
<p>在疫情期間獲得的定價權始終是暫時的，當前市場調整反映了這一現實。</p>
<h2>2025 年預測：淨銷售額預計在 66 億美元至 68 億美元之間</h2>
<p>展望未來，藍威斯頓預測其年銷售額和利潤低於分析師的預期，因其冷凍食品產品的價格上漲開始影響銷量。</p>
<p>該公司一直在提高其產品的價格，包括即食經典和甜薯條，以抵消製造、運輸和土豆等原材料成本上漲。</p>
<p>藍威斯頓供應給麥當勞和 KFC 母公司百勝餐飲集團等快餐連鎖店，也面臨更多人選擇在家烹飪餐點的壓力。首席執行官湯姆·沃納表示，</p>
<p>美國和我們許多主要國際市場的市場份額損失以及餐廳流量放緩超出我們的預期。我們還因自願撤回產品而遭受損失。</p>
<p>公司預測 2025 年淨銷售額在 66 億美元（60.9 億歐元）至 68 億美元（63 億歐元）之間，其中間值低於 LSEG 估計的 67.9 億美元（63 億歐元）。</p>
<p>公司預計全年每股收益將在 4.35 美元至 4.85 美元之間，而分析師平均預期為 6.09 美元。該公司表示，2025 財年上半年的銷量可能會下降至低至中個位數範圍。</p>
<h2>季度表現：銷量下降 8%，收入低於預期</h2>
<p>Lamb Weston 第四季度銷量下降了 8%。截至 5 月 26 日的季度收入為 161 億美元（15 億歐元），低於分析師預期的 170 億美元（16 億歐元）。</p>
<p>公司調整後的每股收益為 78 美分，而預期為 1.26 美元。</p>
<p>對薯條需求的增長提供了一個獨特視角，可以觀察更廣泛的經濟趨勢。</p>
<p>Lamb Weston 最近的財務困境凸顯了疫情引發的干擾對快餐行業和更廣泛經濟的持續影響。</p>
<p>隨着公司調整戰略以專注於以銷量驅動的增長和成本管理，它面臨着艱難的道路。</p>
<p>經濟格局繼續演變，反映了後疫情世界的複雜性和不確定性。</p>
<p>Lamb Weston 在第二季度表現令人失望：薯條經濟告訴我們什麼？</p>

藍威斯頓

<p>藍威斯頓，麥當勞主要的冷凍土豆供應商，報告稱由於快餐流量減少，薯條需求下降。這反映了更廣泛的經濟趨勢，並突顯了快餐連鎖店所面臨的挑戰。藍威斯頓的營收下降了 5%，股價下跌超過 25%。公司的業績不佳歸因於多種因素，包括有針對性的價格投資、市場份額損失以及餐廳流量低於預期。受疫情引發的干擾和通貨膨脹也影響了餐廳的利潤率。展望未來，藍威斯頓預測由於其冷凍食品產品價格上漲，銷售額和利潤將下降</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/172227344_l_normal_none.jpg"/></p>
<p>French fries may seem like a simple side dish, but their demand reveals much about broader economic trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>薯條可能看起來是一道簡單的配菜，但其需求情況揭示了更廣泛經濟趨勢的許多信息。</p>
</div><p>Recent data from Lamb Weston, the primary supplier of frozen potatoes to McDonald’s, highlights significant shifts in the fast food and broader economic landscapes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近來自藍威斯頓的數據顯示，作為麥當勞主要供應冷凍土豆的公司，突顯了快餐和更廣泛經濟格局中的重大變化。</p>
</div><p>The company’s latest earnings report underscores challenges that go beyond just fewer orders of fries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司最新的收益報告突顯了超出薯條訂單減少之外的挑戰。</p>
</div><h2>French fry demand down as fast food traffic drops over 4%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>隨着快餐流量下降超過 4%，薯條需求下降</h2>
</div><p>Ordering French fries at McDonald’s appears straightforward, but it relies heavily on Lamb Weston, an Idaho-based company that grows, processes, and ships potatoes to McDonald’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在麥當勞點薯條似乎很簡單，但這在很大程度上依賴於總部位於愛達荷州的藍威斯頓公司，該公司種植、加工和運送土豆給麥當勞。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s fortunes are closely tied to how many fries customers order. Recently, the company reported diminished traffic at fast food chains like McDonald’s, which experienced a more than 4% drop in traffic at hamburger specialty restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓的命運與顧客點多少薯條密切相關。最近，該公司報告稱，在麥當勞等快餐連鎖店的流量減少，漢堡專門餐廳的流量下降超過 4%。</p>
</div><p>Despite a higher “fry attachment rate” — the percentage of customers adding fries to their orders — overall French fry demand has declined due to fewer customers visiting these restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 “薯條附加率” 較高——即顧客將薯條加入訂單的比例——但由於參觀這些餐廳的顧客減少，總體薯條需求下降。</p>
</div><h2>Derived demand drives down potato orders</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>衍生需求導致土豆訂單下降</h2>
</div><p>This situation exemplifies basic economic principles regarding demand. Economists understand that demand curves shift when determinants such as income, complementary and substitute products, the number of buyers, and utility change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種情況體現了關於需求的基本經濟原則。經濟學家瞭解到，當收入、互補和替代產品、買家數量以及效用等決定因素髮生變化時，需求曲線會發生變化。</p>
</div><p>Here, McDonald’s diminished “income” from French fry sales translates into lower demand for Lamb Weston’s frozen potatoes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這裏，麥當勞薯條銷售的減少導致了對藍威斯頓冷凍土豆需求的降低。</p>
</div><p>This is a classic case of derived demand, where the demand for one good (frozen potatoes) is driven by the demand for another (fast food).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個典型的衍生需求案例，其中對一個商品（冷凍土豆）的需求受到另一個商品（快餐）需求的驅動。</p>
</div><h2>Lamb Weston’s revenue falls 5%, shares drop over 25%</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>藍威斯頓的營收下降 5%，股價下跌超過 25%</h2>
</div><p>Lamb Weston, an $8 billion global company, saw its value plummet after a disappointing earnings report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一家價值 80 億美元的全球公司，藍威斯頓在一份令人失望的收益報告後價值暴跌。</p>
</div><p>The company’s revenue declined by 5%, and its earnings collapsed, leading to a bleak outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司的營收下降了 5%，其盈利大幅下滑，導致前景黯淡。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s CEO, Tom Werner, attributed the poor performance to several factors, including targeted price investments, a voluntary product withdrawal to maintain quality standards, unexpected market share losses, an unfavourable product mix, and softer-than-expected restaurant traffic in both the US and key international markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓的首席執行官湯姆·沃納將業績不佳歸因於幾個因素，包括有針對性的價格投資、為保持質量標準而自願撤回產品、意外市場份額損失、不利的產品組合以及美國和主要國際市場中餐廳流量低於預期。</p>
</div><h2>Fast food price increases lead to shifting consumer behaviour</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>快餐價格上漲導致消費者行為轉變</h2>
</div><p>The core issue, however, is simpler: the performance of fast-food restaurants has been slipping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，核心問題更簡單：快餐餐廳的表現一直在下滑。</p>
</div><p>According to Jake Bartlett, a restaurant analyst at Truist, recent weakness in fast food chains is primarily due to price increases backfiring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Truist 的餐廳分析師傑克·巴特利特的説法，快餐連鎖店最近的疲軟主要是由於價格上漲適得其反。</p>
</div><p>Fast food price hikes have narrowed the value advantage, pushing consumers to either trade up to fast-casual options like Chipotle or down to grocery stores where price increases have been smaller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>快餐價格上漲縮小了價值優勢，推動消費者要麼升級到 Chipotle 等快速休閒選項，要麼降級到雜貨店，那裏的價格上漲較小。</p>
</div><p>This has significantly impacted traffic at fast food establishments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這顯著影響了快餐店的流量。</p>
</div><h2>Pandemic-induced disruptions and inflation impact restaurant margins</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>疫情引發的中斷和通脹影響餐廳利潤</h2>
</div><p>The pandemic caused significant disruptions in the restaurant industry, with initial lockdowns leading to a collapse in demand, followed by a surge as consumers spent their accumulated savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情導致餐飲行業出現重大中斷，最初的封鎖導致需求崩潰，隨後消費者花費積累的儲蓄。</p>
</div><p>Supply chain issues further compounded the problem, leading to inflation and price hikes across the board. Restaurants, including McDonald’s, raised prices to protect their margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供應鏈問題進一步加劇了問題，導致通脹和各個領域的價格上漲。包括麥當勞在內的餐廳提高了價格以保護利潤率。</p>
</div><p>This is evident in McDonald’s operating margin, which increased post-pandemic but now faces challenges as consumer spending patterns shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在麥當勞的營運利潤中明顯，疫情後增加，但隨着消費者消費模式的轉變，面臨挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s pandemic performance and future outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓的疫情表現和未來展望</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston thrived during the pandemic, with quarterly sales surging. This growth attracted investor interest, and between early 2022 and mid-2023, the company’s shares doubled. However, the increase in sales was primarily driven by price hikes rather than volume growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓在疫情期間蓬勃發展，季度銷售激增。這種增長吸引了投資者的興趣，在 2022 年初至 2023 年中，該公司股價翻倍。然而，銷售增長主要是由價格上漲而非量增長驅動的。</p>
</div><p>The CEO acknowledged this, stating that future sales growth would need to be volume-driven, focusing on selling more potatoes rather than increasing prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官承認了這一點，表示未來的銷售增長需要以量為驅動，專注於銷售更多土豆而非提高價格。</p>
</div><p>This strategic shift is critical as competition forces price cuts. Future revenue and profit growth for Lamb Weston will depend on increasing sales volumes, improving product mix, and achieving cost savings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種戰略轉變至關重要，因為競爭迫使降價。藍威斯頓未來的營收和利潤增長將取決於增加銷售量、改善產品組合和實現成本節約。</p>
</div><p>The reliance on price increases during the pandemic is no longer sustainable, necessitating a focus on selling more products to drive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疫情期間依賴價格上漲的做法不再可持續，需要專注於銷售更多產品以推動增長。</p>
</div><h2>Inflation and supply chain issues persist</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>通脹和供應鏈問題仍然存在</h2>
</div><p>The Lamb Weston saga illustrates that the economic disruptions from the pandemic are still impacting asset prices. Inflation continues to resolve unevenly, with its effects still being felt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓的故事説明了疫情帶來的經濟中斷仍在影響資產價格。通脹持續不均勻解決，其影響仍在持續。</p>
</div><p>The company’s recent financial performance shows the challenges of navigating economic disruptions in real time. Processing potatoes is a commodity industry, making companies like Lamb Weston price takers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司最近的財務表現顯示了在實時導航經濟中的挑戰。加工土豆是一個商品行業，使得藍威斯頓等公司成為價格接受者。</p>
</div><p>The pricing power gained during the pandemic was always temporary, and the current market correction reflects this reality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在疫情期間獲得的定價權始終是暫時的，當前市場調整反映了這一現實。</p>
</div><h2>Forecast for 2025: Net sales expected between $6.6 billion and $6.8 billion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年預測：淨銷售額預計在 66 億美元至 68 億美元之間</h2>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Lamb Weston forecast its annual sales and profit below analysts’ expectations, as higher prices of its frozen food products begin to hurt volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，藍威斯頓預測其年銷售額和利潤低於分析師的預期，因其冷凍食品產品的價格上漲開始影響銷量。</p>
</div><p>The company has been increasing prices of its products, including ready-to-cook classic and sweet potato fries, to offset rising costs of manufacturing, transportation, and inputs such as potatoes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司一直在提高其產品的價格，包括即食經典和甜薯條，以抵消製造、運輸和土豆等原材料成本上漲。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston, which supplies to fast-food chains such as McDonald’s and KFC-owner Yum Brands, also faced pressure from more people opting to cook their meals at home amid persistent inflation. CEO Tom Werner stated,</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>藍威斯頓供應給麥當勞和 KFC 母公司百勝餐飲集團等快餐連鎖店，也面臨更多人選擇在家烹飪餐點的壓力。首席執行官湯姆·沃納表示，</p>
</div><p>Market share losses and a slowdown in restaurant traffic in the US and many of our key international markets were greater than we expected. We also incurred losses related to a voluntary product withdrawal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國和我們許多主要國際市場的市場份額損失以及餐廳流量放緩超出我們的預期。我們還因自願撤回產品而遭受損失。</p>
</div><p>The company forecast 2025 net sales in the range of $6.6 billion (€6.09 billion) to $6.8 billion (€6.3 billion), the mid-point of which was below LSEG estimates of $6.79 billion (€6.3 billion).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司預測 2025 年淨銷售額在 66 億美元（60.9 億歐元）至 68 億美元（63 億歐元）之間，其中間值低於 LSEG 估計的 67.9 億美元（63 億歐元）。</p>
</div><p>It also expects full-year earnings per share to be between $4.35 and $4.85, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $6.09. The company said its volumes in the first half of the fiscal 2025 were likely to decline in the low-to-mid single-digits range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司預計全年每股收益將在 4.35 美元至 4.85 美元之間，而分析師平均預期為 6.09 美元。該公司表示，2025 財年上半年的銷量可能會下降至低至中個位數範圍。</p>
</div><h2>Quarterly performance: 8% volume drop and revenue below expectations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>季度表現：銷量下降 8%，收入低於預期</h2>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s volumes fell 8% in the fourth quarter. Revenue of $1.61 billion (€1.5 billion) in the quarter ended May 26 was below analysts’ estimate of $1.70 billion (€1.6 billion).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 第四季度銷量下降了 8%。截至 5 月 26 日的季度收入為 161 億美元（15 億歐元），低於分析師預期的 170 億美元（16 億歐元）。</p>
</div><p>The company’s adjusted earnings per share was at 78 cents compared with the $1.26 estimated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司調整後的每股收益為 78 美分，而預期為 1.26 美元。</p>
</div><p>The demand for French fries offers a unique lens through which to view broader economic trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對薯條需求的增長提供了一個獨特視角，可以觀察更廣泛的經濟趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Lamb Weston’s recent financial struggles underscore the ongoing impact of pandemic-induced disruptions on the fast food industry and the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 最近的財務困境凸顯了疫情引發的干擾對快餐行業和更廣泛經濟的持續影響。</p>
</div><p>As the company adjusts its strategy to focus on volume-driven growth and cost management, it faces a challenging path ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着公司調整戰略以專注於以銷量驅動的增長和成本管理，它面臨着艱難的道路。</p>
</div><p>The economic landscape continues to evolve, reflecting the complexities and uncertainties of a post-pandemic world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟格局繼續演變，反映了後疫情世界的複雜性和不確定性。</p>
</div><p>The post Lamb Weston had a disappointing Q2: what the French fries economics is telling us? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lamb Weston 在第二季度表現令人失望：薯條經濟告訴我們什麼？</p>
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藍威斯頓第二季度表現令人失望：薯條經濟學告訴了我們什麼信息？