<p>對於於 6 月 5 日發佈的財報，市場對 2024 財年第一季度的 <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) 做出了積極的反應 -- 交易員將股價推高至 6 月 6 日的 337.76 美元的盤中高點。然而，自那時起，股價一路下跌 -- 於 7 月 25 日跌至低於 250 美元的四年低點。該股票今年迄今已下跌超過 50%，成為 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 中表現第二糟糕的組成部分，僅次於 <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>。</p>
<p>以下是導致這隻成長股下跌的原因，以及為何拋售可能是耐心投資者的買入機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源: Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 的紅火時期結束了</h2>
<p>Lululemon 在 2023 年 12 月創下歷史新高，其原因顯而易見。</p>
<p>在三年內，營收幾乎翻了一番，運營利潤率超過 20% -- 表明需求強勁，定價能力強。而且，Lululemon 今年迄今的業績也不錯。但是，股價現在正朝着銷售和利潤的相反方向走。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="504" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png"/></p>
<p>LULU 數據由 YCharts 提供。</p>
<p>主要問題在於銷售增長放緩。在最近公佈的季度中，營收同比增長了 10%，但在恆定匯率基礎上，可比銷售僅增長了 7%。這與 2023 年第一季度增長 24% 或 2022 年第一季度銷售增長 32% 的情況形成鮮明對比。</p>
<p>隨着企業成熟，正常預期增長率會在百分比基礎上放緩。毫無疑問，Lululemon 無疑是世界頂級的休閒運動品牌之一 -- 而不是一個新興公司。但它特別容易受到增長放緩的影響。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 致力於增長，而非衰退</h2>
<p>與許多同行依賴批發合作伙伴不同，Lululemon 大部分銷售額來自公司經營的門店和直銷渠道。一個自然的比較是 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 和汽車行業的老牌參與者之間的對比。特斯拉不通過獨立經銷商網絡銷售其車輛 -- 它直接通過門店和在線向消費者銷售，並通過自己的服務中心和充電網絡支持運營。</p>
<p>這種商業模式使 Lululemon 對其運營擁有更多控制權。然而，這也增加了其固定成本，並使業務變得臃腫，這可能會在需求大幅下降時放大負面財務影響。</p>
<p>公司的銷售、總務和行政（SG&amp;A）費用相當可觀。在過去 12 個月中，每創造 1 美元銷售額，Lululemon 在 SG&amp;A 費用上花費了 0.35 美元，而在銷售成本上花費了 0.42 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="521" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png"/></p>
<p>LULU SG&amp;A 費用（TTM）數據由 YCharts 提供。</p>
<p>營銷是品牌發展的重要組成部分。然而，過度的 SG&amp;A 支出可能會膨脹公司的成本結構，並使其過度依賴銷售增長來抵消這些高成本。</p>
<h2>新生力量</h2>
<p>除了宏觀經濟挑戰外，Lululemon 面臨着激烈的競爭 -- 尤其是來自 Alo Yoga -- 後者直接搶佔 Lululemon 的市場份額。Lululemon 在休閒運動服裝領域發揮了先鋒作用，尤其是在將瑜伽褲推廣為日常服裝選項方面。但七到十年前，該品牌知名度較低，公司在銷售方面規模也小得多。Lululemon 現在處於市場上佔據主導地位的階段，但並沒有更具時間考驗的品牌所具有的根深蒂固的立足點。這使其更容易受到消費者偏好和時尚變化的影響。</p>
<p><strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.73%) 面臨着與 Lululemon 相同的宏觀經濟和消費者行為挑戰。耐克面臨來自 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 Hoka（由 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 擁有）的競爭不斷加劇。但耐克是世界上最大和最知名的服裝品牌。它與 Lululemon 完全不在一個層次。即便如此，其股價已跌至五年多來的最低水平 -- 這説明了當前行業面臨的挑戰是多麼極端。</p>
<p>Lululemon 今天的市盈率僅為 20.4 倍，這在歷史上是非常便宜的。但如果銷售增長繼續放緩，這一估值可能開始看起來相當昂貴。Lululemon 最大的悲觀風險在於，如果其盈利實際上開始因其臃腫的成本結構和消費者偏好變化而收縮。公司也可能確定需要降低價格以抵禦 Alo Yoga 和其他品牌。這些擔憂與宏觀經濟背景的結合解釋了為什麼該股票在過去七個月中遭受重創。</p>
<h2>Lululemon 是謹慎的買入</h2>
<p>Lululemon 曾經是一隻高飛的股票，現在主要因為大多數正當理由而被轉移到折扣貨架上。現在比以往任何時候都更重要的是，不要忽視公司作為品牌所面臨的挑戰，以及迎合注重成本的消費者的挑戰。</p>
<p>然而，同樣重要的是要認識到 Lululemon 已經取得了多大的進步。其國際銷售和男裝業務實現了強勁增長，表明它可以多樣化業務，減少對北美市場女裝銷售的依賴。即使其銷售在短期內保持疲軟，該股票現在也具有低廉的估值。</p>
<p>Lululemon 已經跌至可以買入的程度。然而，投資者應密切關注品牌的健康狀況和管理層對 SG&amp;A 費用的處理方式。如果 Lululemon 投入大量資金進行營銷活動，結果卻失敗並侵蝕利潤率，那可能是品牌實力減弱的信號，股票應該被賦予較低的盈利倍數。</p>

露露樂蒙

<p>路威運動（Lululemon）的股價今年以來下跌超過 50%，成為標普 500 指數表現第二糟糕的成分股。主要問題在於銷售增長放緩，公司正面臨着來自 Alo Yoga 等品牌的激烈競爭。路威運動高昂的費用和消費者偏好的變化帶來風險。然而，股價低估值使其成為謹慎的買入選擇</p>

<p>The reaction to the fiscal 2024 first-quarter report <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) released on June 5 was positive -- traders sent the stock up to an intraday high of $337.76 on June 6. Since then, though, the share price has been crushed -- falling to a four-year low below $250 on July 25. The stock is now down by just over 50% year to date, making it the second-worst performing component of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, behind only <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於於 6 月 5 日發佈的財報，市場對 2024 財年第一季度的 <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 1.04%) 做出了積極的反應 -- 交易員將股價推高至 6 月 6 日的 337.76 美元的盤中高點。然而，自那時起，股價一路下跌 -- 於 7 月 25 日跌至低於 250 美元的四年低點。該股票今年迄今已下跌超過 50%，成為 <strong>標普 500 指數</strong> 中表現第二糟糕的組成部分，僅次於 <strong>Walgreens Boots Alliance</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Here's what's pushing this growth stock down, and why the sell-off could be a buying opportunity for patient investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是導致這隻成長股下跌的原因，以及為何拋售可能是耐心投資者的買入機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODQ5MzAvY29weS1vZi1mcnVzdHJhdGVkLXNhZC1iYWQtaW52ZXN0bWVudC0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F784930%2Fcopy-of-frustrated-sad-bad-investment-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源: Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon's red-hot run is over</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 的紅火時期結束了</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon hit an all-time high in December 2023, and it's easy to see why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 在 2023 年 12 月創下歷史新高，其原因顯而易見。</p>
</div><p>Revenue has nearly doubled in three years and operating margins climbed above 20% -- signaling strong demand and pricing power. And Lululemon's results haven't been bad so far this year either. But the price of the stock is now going in the opposite direction of sales and margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三年內，營收幾乎翻了一番，運營利潤率超過 20% -- 表明需求強勁，定價能力強。而且，Lululemon 今年迄今的業績也不錯。但是，股價現在正朝着銷售和利潤的相反方向走。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/84552377a948cf374976691e0f531839.png"/></p>
<p>LULU data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LULU 數據由 YCharts 提供。</p>
</div><p>The main issue is that sales growth is slowing. In the most recently reported quarter, revenue increased by 10% year over year, but comparable sales increased by just 7% on a constant-currency basis. That's a noticeable dip from Q1 2023, when revenue increased 24%, or Q1 2022 when sales were up 32%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要問題在於銷售增長放緩。在最近公佈的季度中，營收同比增長了 10%，但在恆定匯率基礎上，可比銷售僅增長了 7%。這與 2023 年第一季度增長 24% 或 2022 年第一季度銷售增長 32% 的情況形成鮮明對比。</p>
</div><p>It's normal to expect growth rates to slow on a percentage basis as a business matures. Lululemon is undoubtedly one of the top athleisure brands in the world -- not an up-and-coming company. But it is particularly vulnerable to a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着企業成熟，正常預期增長率會在百分比基礎上放緩。毫無疑問，Lululemon 無疑是世界頂級的休閒運動品牌之一 -- 而不是一個新興公司。但它特別容易受到增長放緩的影響。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon is built for growth, not a downturn</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 致力於增長，而非衰退</h2>
</div><p>Instead of relying on wholesale partners like many of its peers, Lululemon gets most of its sales through company-operated stores and its direct-to-consumer channel. A natural comparison would be the contrast between <strong>Tesla</strong> and the auto industry's established players. Tesla doesn't sell its vehicles through networks of independent dealers -- it sells them directly to consumers through its stores and online, and supports the operation with its own service centers and charging network.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與許多同行依賴批發合作伙伴不同，Lululemon 大部分銷售額來自公司經營的門店和直銷渠道。一個自然的比較是 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 和汽車行業的老牌參與者之間的對比。特斯拉不通過獨立經銷商網絡銷售其車輛 -- 它直接通過門店和在線向消費者銷售，並通過自己的服務中心和充電網絡支持運營。</p>
</div><p>That sort of business model gives Lululemon more control over its operations. However, it also adds to its fixed costs and makes the business bulkier, which could amplify the negative financial impacts in the event of a sizable decline in demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種商業模式使 Lululemon 對其運營擁有更多控制權。然而，這也增加了其固定成本，並使業務變得臃腫，這可能會在需求大幅下降時放大負面財務影響。</p>
</div><p>The company's sales, general, and administrative (SG&amp;A) expenses are significant. For every dollar in sales generated during the last 12 months, Lululemon spent $0.35 on SG&amp;A expenses compared to $0.42 on the dollar for cost of goods sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的銷售、總務和行政（SG&amp;A）費用相當可觀。在過去 12 個月中，每創造 1 美元銷售額，Lululemon 在 SG&amp;A 費用上花費了 0.35 美元，而在銷售成本上花費了 0.42 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/75dddf5b640dc57b6b05ea9aed92090a.png"/></p>
<p>LULU SG&amp;A Expense (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LULU SG&amp;A 費用（TTM）數據由 YCharts 提供。</p>
</div><p>Marketing is an important component of brand development. However, excessive SG&amp;A spending can inflate a company's cost structure and make it overly reliant on sales growth to offset those high costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>營銷是品牌發展的重要組成部分。然而，過度的 SG&amp;A 支出可能會膨脹公司的成本結構，並使其過度依賴銷售增長來抵消這些高成本。</p>
</div><h2>New kids on the block</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新生力量</h2>
</div><p>In addition to macroeconomic challenges, Lululemon is facing tough competition -- particularly from Alo Yoga -- which is directly going after Lululemon's market share. Lululemon helped pioneer athleisure, especially in popularizing yoga pants as an everyday apparel option. But seven to 10 years ago, the brand was lesser known, and the company was much smaller from a sales standpoint. Lululemon is now at a stage where it has a commanding presence in the market, but it doesn't have the entrenched foothold of a more time-tested brand. This leaves it more exposed to changes in consumer preferences and fads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了宏觀經濟挑戰外，Lululemon 面臨着激烈的競爭 -- 尤其是來自 Alo Yoga -- 後者直接搶佔 Lululemon 的市場份額。Lululemon 在休閒運動服裝領域發揮了先鋒作用，尤其是在將瑜伽褲推廣為日常服裝選項方面。但七到十年前，該品牌知名度較低，公司在銷售方面規模也小得多。Lululemon 現在處於市場上佔據主導地位的階段，但並沒有更具時間考驗的品牌所具有的根深蒂固的立足點。這使其更容易受到消費者偏好和時尚變化的影響。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.73%) has been dealing with the same macroeconomic and consumer-behavior challenges as Lululemon. Nike faces rising competition from <strong>On Holding</strong> and Hoka (which is owned by <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong>). But Nike is the largest and most recognizable apparel brand in the world. It is simply in a different league as Lululemon. And even so, its stock price has collapsed to its lowest level in more than five years -- illustrating just how extreme the challenges the industry faces right now are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.73%) 面臨着與 Lululemon 相同的宏觀經濟和消費者行為挑戰。耐克面臨來自 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 Hoka（由 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 擁有）的競爭不斷加劇。但耐克是世界上最大和最知名的服裝品牌。它與 Lululemon 完全不在一個層次。即便如此，其股價已跌至五年多來的最低水平 -- 這説明了當前行業面臨的挑戰是多麼極端。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon trades today at a mere 20.4 price-to-earnings ratio, which is dirt cheap for the stock historically. But that valuation could begin to look quite expensive if sales growth continues to slow. The biggest bear-case risk for Lululemon would be if its earnings actually began to contract due to the combination of its bloated cost profile and changing consumer preferences. The company could also determine it needs to dial back prices to ward off Alo Yoga and other brands. The combination of those concerns and the macroeconomic backdrop explains why the stock has gotten obliterated over the last seven months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 今天的市盈率僅為 20.4 倍，這在歷史上是非常便宜的。但如果銷售增長繼續放緩，這一估值可能開始看起來相當昂貴。Lululemon 最大的悲觀風險在於，如果其盈利實際上開始因其臃腫的成本結構和消費者偏好變化而收縮。公司也可能確定需要降低價格以抵禦 Alo Yoga 和其他品牌。這些擔憂與宏觀經濟背景的結合解釋了為什麼該股票在過去七個月中遭受重創。</p>
</div><h2>Lululemon is a cautious buy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Lululemon 是謹慎的買入</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon was once a high-flying stock, and it has been moved to the discount rack for mostly good reasons. Now more than ever, it's important not to overlook the challenges the company faces both as a brand and in catering to cost-conscious consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 曾經是一隻高飛的股票，現在主要因為大多數正當理由而被轉移到折扣貨架上。現在比以往任何時候都更重要的是，不要忽視公司作為品牌所面臨的挑戰，以及迎合注重成本的消費者的挑戰。</p>
</div><p>However, it's equally important to recognize how far Lululemon has come. It is achieving strong growth in international sales and men's clothing, suggesting it can diversify its business and become less reliant on selling women's clothing in the North American market. The stock is also inexpensively valued now, even if its sales remain sluggish over the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，同樣重要的是要認識到 Lululemon 已經取得了多大的進步。其國際銷售和男裝業務實現了強勁增長，表明它可以多樣化業務，減少對北美市場女裝銷售的依賴。即使其銷售在短期內保持疲軟，該股票現在也具有低廉的估值。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon has sold off enough to make it a buy. However, investors should pay close attention to the brand's health and management's approach to SG&amp;A expenses. If Lululemon throws money at marketing campaigns that end up failing and eroding margins, then that may be a signal that the brand's power is weakening and the stock deserves a low earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 已經跌至可以買入的程度。然而，投資者應密切關注品牌的健康狀況和管理層對 SG&amp;A 費用的處理方式。如果 Lululemon 投入大量資金進行營銷活動，結果卻失敗並侵蝕利潤率，那可能是品牌實力減弱的信號，股票應該被賦予較低的盈利倍數。</p>
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Lululemon 股票年初至今下跌超過 50%。這次拋售是否已經過度了？