<p>隨着 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) 股價自去年初以來上漲超過 60%，投資者可能有些猶豫是否要進入新的頭寸。更讓他們猶豫的是，該股票的估值很高，約為未來 12 個月預期收益的 50 倍。他們擔心的是，可能已經沒有上漲空間了。</p>
<p>事實上，投資者有理由對這些疑慮進行思考。</p>
<p>只是不要太習慣於成為悲觀羣體的一員。Costco 股票有一個有趣的習慣，表現比看起來應該更為樂觀。</p>
<h2>它是否太過美好？</h2>
<p>你可能已經瞭解這家公司：Costco 是一家基於會員制的折扣零售商。它擁有超過 7000 萬付費會員和超過 1.3 億持卡人，他們每年支付 65 美元或 130 美元的會費，以在其 878 家門店之一購物。其中大多數位於美國，儘管 Costco 在美國以外也有少量實體店。在其截至 2023 年 9 月 3 日的財年中，其業務額超過 2420 億美元，將其中 63 億美元的收入轉化為淨利潤。</p>
<p>更重要的是，它擅長自己的業務。事實上，它可能是業內最好的公司，儘管直接與 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 的倉儲零售部門 Sam's Club 等大公司競爭。Costco 自 1976 年在一個飛機庫開設第一家店以來一直在做這個行當，當時它還被稱為 Price Club。</p>
<p>這就是潛在買家面臨的困境。即使它不是一個高增長的公司，Costco 確實是一個可靠的增長者。在過去十多年裏，其營收每個季度都沒有出現同比下降，而其利潤增長也幾乎同樣穩定。投資者希望參與這種韌性，甚至願意為此支付溢價。</p>
<p>他們只是在股價遠遠超過基本收益時不擅於控制。</p>
<h2>你能理解 Costco 股票瘋狂的價格波動嗎？</h2>
<p>這正是自去年初以來發生的事情，儘管隨後的急劇上漲始於已經存在劣勢。也就是説，由於 COVID-19 大流行，Costco 股票也異常火爆。以此為參照，除了自 2023 年初以來上漲 65% 外，Costco 的股價自 2019 年底以來上漲了令人難以置信的 170%，自 2016 年底以來上漲了 400%。銷售額和利潤在此期間有所增長，但程度遠不及股價。</p>
<p>結果呢？Costco 股票的市盈率從那時的約 25 上升到現在的 50 多。即使按照熱門科技股的標準，這也是相當高的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 COST 數據。</p>
<p>大多數投資者明白，該股目前被高估，或者至少接近分析師的一致目標，即每股不到 890 美元。然而，對下一輪牛市勢頭的錯失恐懼也是非常強烈的。這也是股價從 7 月初高點回落的部分原因。</p>
<p>回到最初的問題：現在買入 Costco 股票是否為時已晚？答案是...有點。</p>
<p>但 “有點” 是多少呢？這就是問題所在。儘管許多投資者希望得到一個明確的、定量的 Costco 股票入場價格，但這是不可能的。這是一隻股票，其漲落取決於內部和外部的定性因素；有一種 “感覺”。目前可以肯定的是：股價現在大約與過去 25 年的高點一樣高。只需看下面的圖表，顯示其市盈率隨時間的變化。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 COST 市盈率數據</p>
<p>另一方面，不要對入場價格太挑剔。如果你等待這隻股票的市盈率回落到幾年前的中 20 年代，就忘了吧。如果投資者開始對其失去興趣，只需尋找賣出已經觸底並且股票開始吸引買家的跡象。這是一個判斷，當你看到時就會知道。大概。</p>
<p>如果你沒有恰好買入最低點，也沒關係。你仍然在進入一個出色的長期持有。隨着時間的推移，一切都會好起來。</p>
<h2>長期來看，公司比股票更重要</h2>
<p>這當然是一個令人沮喪的概念，特別是對於喜歡數字整潔明瞭的新手投資者。_一些_股票是這樣運作的。然而，大多數股票並非如此。不要為此煩惱。事實上，要適應它。</p>
<p>正如愚人節的核心理念之一所解釋的那樣，你是在投資公司 -- 而不是股票。尋找優質公司，它們的股票會隨着時間解決問題。Costco 股票在其歷史上肯定做到了這一點，即使估值極高。</p>
<p>這也正是為什麼現在買入它並不算太晚，前提是你真正看好未來五年或更長時間。這也是為什麼你的確切入場價格並不重要。</p>
<p>然而，如果你的時間框架只有五週...那就是另一回事了。Costco 股票五週後的價格很可能比現在低，但這更多取決於不可預測的市場環境，而不是公司本身。試圖在短期內進行交易時機，當你實際上只關注短期時，是一場危險的遊戲。</p>

開市客

<p>Costco 股票已經實現了顯著增長，目前價值約為未來 12 個月預期收益的 50 倍。投資者對股票高估值感到擔憂，但也不想錯過潛在收益。雖然股票可能被高估，但它仍然是一家可靠且具有韌性的公司。購買決策應基於定性因素和判斷，而不是等待特定的入場價格。總體而言，Costco 被認為是一個出色的長期持有投資</p>

<p>With shares of <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) up more than 60% since early last year, investors may be a bit hesitant to dive into a new position. Giving them even more pause is the fact that the stock's valued richly, at around 50 times the next 12 months' expected earnings. They're understandably concerned that there's just no upside left to tap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 0.64%) 股價自去年初以來上漲超過 60%，投資者可能有些猶豫是否要進入新的頭寸。更讓他們猶豫的是，該股票的估值很高，約為未來 12 個月預期收益的 50 倍。他們擔心的是，可能已經沒有上漲空間了。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, investors are right to entertain these doubts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，投資者有理由對這些疑慮進行思考。</p>
</div><p>Just don't get too comfortable being part of the pessimistic crowd. Costco stock has a funny habit of performing far more bullishly than it seems it should.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只是不要太習慣於成為悲觀羣體的一員。Costco 股票有一個有趣的習慣，表現比看起來應該更為樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>Is it too good for its own good?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>它是否太過美好？</h2>
</div><p>You probably know the company: Costco is a club-based discount retailer. It boasts over 70 million paid memberships and more than 130 million total cardholders, who are paying either $65 or $130 per year for the right to shop at one of its 878 stores. Most of them are located in the United States, although Costco has a small brick-and-mortar presence outside of the U.S. as well. In its fiscal 2023, which ended Sept. 3, it did over $242 billion worth of business, turning $6.3 billion of that revenue into net income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能已經瞭解這家公司：Costco 是一家基於會員制的折扣零售商。它擁有超過 7000 萬付費會員和超過 1.3 億持卡人，他們每年支付 65 美元或 130 美元的會費，以在其 878 家門店之一購物。其中大多數位於美國，儘管 Costco 在美國以外也有少量實體店。在其截至 2023 年 9 月 3 日的財年中，其業務額超過 2420 億美元，將其中 63 億美元的收入轉化為淨利潤。</p>
</div><p>More important, it's good at what it does. It may be the best in the business, in fact, even though it competes directly with power players like <strong>Walmart</strong>'s warehouse-retailing unit Sam's Club. Costco's been doing this since opening its first store in an airplane hangar all the way back in 1976, when it was still called Price Club.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，它擅長自己的業務。事實上，它可能是業內最好的公司，儘管直接與 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 的倉儲零售部門 Sam's Club 等大公司競爭。Costco 自 1976 年在一個飛機庫開設第一家店以來一直在做這個行當，當時它還被稱為 Price Club。</p>
</div><p>And there's the conundrum for would-be buyers. Even if it's not a high-growth company, Costco <em>is</em> a reliable grower. Its top line hasn't failed to grow on a year-over-year basis in any quarter in over a decade, while its profit growth has been almost as consistent. Investors want to plug into this resilience, and are even willing to pay a premium for it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是潛在買家面臨的困境。即使它不是一個高增長的公司，Costco 確實是一個可靠的增長者。在過去十多年裏，其營收每個季度都沒有出現同比下降，而其利潤增長也幾乎同樣穩定。投資者希望參與這種韌性，甚至願意為此支付溢價。</p>
</div><p>They're just not great at tapping the brakes when the stock gets too far ahead of its underlying earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們只是在股價遠遠超過基本收益時不擅於控制。</p>
</div><h2>Can you make sense of Costco stock's crazy price action?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你能理解 Costco 股票瘋狂的價格波動嗎？</h2>
</div><p>That's exactly what's happened here since early last year, although the steep run-up that followed started with a disadvantage already in place. That is, Costco shares were also red-hot because of the COVID-19 pandemic. For perspective, in addition to its 65% gain since the beginning of 2023, Costco's stock is up an incredible 170% since the end of 2019, and 400% since the end of 2016. Sales and earnings are up for this time frame, but not nearly to the same degree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這正是自去年初以來發生的事情，儘管隨後的急劇上漲始於已經存在劣勢。也就是説，由於 COVID-19 大流行，Costco 股票也異常火爆。以此為參照，除了自 2023 年初以來上漲 65% 外，Costco 的股價自 2019 年底以來上漲了令人難以置信的 170%，自 2016 年底以來上漲了 400%。銷售額和利潤在此期間有所增長，但程度遠不及股價。</p>
</div><p>The result? Costco shares' trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose from around 25 then to a little over 50 now. That's rich even by the standards of popular technology stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果呢？Costco 股票的市盈率從那時的約 25 上升到現在的 50 多。即使按照熱門科技股的標準，這也是相當高的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/42f40eaa6228c84c5860c0818b96ff4d.png"/></p>
<p>COST data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 COST 數據。</p>
</div><p>Most investors understand that the stock is currently overpriced, or at least near fully valued -- it's near analysts' consensus target of just under $890 per share. The fear of missing out on the next leg of its bullish momentum, however, is also palpably strong. That's at least some of the reason the stock's peeled back from its early July peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數投資者明白，該股目前被高估，或者至少接近分析師的一致目標，即每股不到 890 美元。然而，對下一輪牛市勢頭的錯失恐懼也是非常強烈的。這也是股價從 7 月初高點回落的部分原因。</p>
</div><p>Returning to the original question: Is it too late to buy Costco stock? The answer is ... a little.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回到最初的問題：現在買入 Costco 股票是否為時已晚？答案是...有點。</p>
</div><p>But how much is &#34;a little?&#34; That's the problem. As much as many investors would like a decisive, quantitative entry price for Costco, it's not in the cards. This is a stock that ebbs and flows on internal and external qualitative factors; there's a &#34;feel&#34; to it. Here's what can be safely said right now: Shares are valued about as richly now as they have been in 25 years. Just look at the chart below, showing its P/E ratio over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 “有點” 是多少呢？這就是問題所在。儘管許多投資者希望得到一個明確的、定量的 Costco 股票入場價格，但這是不可能的。這是一隻股票，其漲落取決於內部和外部的定性因素；有一種 “感覺”。目前可以肯定的是：股價現在大約與過去 25 年的高點一樣高。只需看下面的圖表，顯示其市盈率隨時間的變化。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/504213de8f4b1d26a29da6e9bd5b796f.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 COST 市盈率數據</p>
</div><p>On the flip side, don't be too picky about your entry price. If you're waiting for this stock's P/E ratio to slide back to the mid-20s like it was a few years ago, forget it. If investors start cooling on it, just look for signs that the selling has run its course and the stock's starting to attract buyers again. It's a judgment call, and you'll know it when you see it. Probably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，不要對入場價格太挑剔。如果你等待這隻股票的市盈率回落到幾年前的中 20 年代，就忘了吧。如果投資者開始對其失去興趣，只需尋找賣出已經觸底並且股票開始吸引買家的跡象。這是一個判斷，當你看到時就會知道。大概。</p>
</div><p>And if you don't happen to get in near the exact low, that's OK too. You're still stepping into a fantastic long-term holding. It'll be fine given enough time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你沒有恰好買入最低點，也沒關係。你仍然在進入一個出色的長期持有。隨着時間的推移，一切都會好起來。</p>
</div><h2>Over time, the company matters more than the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>長期來看，公司比股票更重要</h2>
</div><p>That can certainly be a frustrating concept, particularly to newer investors who like things numerically neat and tidy. <em>Some</em> stocks work that way. However, most of them don't. Don't sweat it. Get used to it, in fact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這當然是一個令人沮喪的概念，特別是對於喜歡數字整潔明瞭的新手投資者。_一些_股票是這樣運作的。然而，大多數股票並非如此。不要為此煩惱。事實上，要適應它。</p>
</div><p>As one of the Motley Fool's core philosophies explains, you invest in companies -- not stocks. Look for quality companies, and their stocks will take care of things in time. Costco stock's certainly done that plenty over its history, even with a sky-high valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如愚人節的核心理念之一所解釋的那樣，你是在投資公司 -- 而不是股票。尋找優質公司，它們的股票會隨着時間解決問題。Costco 股票在其歷史上肯定做到了這一點，即使估值極高。</p>
</div><p>And, that's precisely why it's not too late to buy it, provided you're truly looking five or more years down the road. That's also why your exact entry price doesn't matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也正是為什麼現在買入它並不算太晚，前提是你真正看好未來五年或更長時間。這也是為什麼你的確切入場價格並不重要。</p>
</div><p>If your time frame is only five weeks, though ... well, that's a different story. Costco shares could easily be priced lower five weeks from now than they are now, but that has more to do with the unpredictable market environment than with the company itself. Trying to time your trade entries, when you're really only looking at the short term, is a dangerous game.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果你的時間框架只有五週...那就是另一回事了。Costco 股票五週後的價格很可能比現在低，但這更多取決於不可預測的市場環境，而不是公司本身。試圖在短期內進行交易時機，當你實際上只關注短期時，是一場危險的遊戲。</p>
</div>

現在購買 Costco 股票是否已經太晚了？