<p>本週四，金融科技貸款平台 <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) 的股價飆升了 44%，根據標普全球市場情報 (S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence) 的數據。</p>
<p>這家陷入困境的金融科技公司在運營改善方面報告了好於預期的收益，同時對下半年的前景持更加樂觀的態度。考慮到該公司的股價已經大幅下跌，跌幅約為 2021 年高點的 95%，股價在轉機前景下飆升。</p>
<h2>利率上升，Upstart 跟着走</h2>
<p>Upstart 的模式是利用人工智能為可能被銀行或其他金融機構忽視的客户批准個人和汽車貸款，然後將這些貸款出售給貸款買家。自 2021 年以來，Upstart 面臨的問題是隨着利率迅速上升，其貸款購買者紛紛離開平台。此外，通貨膨脹環境的劇烈轉變導致 Upstart 的貸款在 2022 年略有表現不佳。</p>
<p>然而，隨着利率似乎已經觸頂和 Upstart 自身模型的改進，情況可能正在好轉。在本季度，管理層指出貸款申請的轉化率提高，簽署更長合同的新貸款買家增加，自動化程度提高帶來更多運營效率。儘管營收同比下降 9% 至 1.28 億美元，調整後（非 GAAP）盈利為-0.17 美元，去年略為盈利，但這兩個數字均超出預期。</p>
<p>或許更重要的是，Upstart 預測下半年將有所改善。管理層現在預計下個季度營收將達到 1.5 億美元，同時虧損將收窄。此外，管理層指導下半年費用收入達到 3.2 億美元，暗示第四季度將有更多增長，並且預計到第四季度將實現正的 EBITDA，從目前的虧損狀況轉為盈利。</p>
<p>&#34;&#34;模型準確性、欺詐檢測、自動化、資金彈性、收購成本和收入優化等方面，與 2022 年相比，都有了長足的進步，&#34;&#34; CEO 戴夫·吉魯瓦在與分析師的電話會議上指出。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="575" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png"/></p>
<p>Upstart 的 PS 比數據來源：YCharts</p>
<h2>Upstart 的商業模式仍然存在侷限性</h2>
<p>Upstart 通過吸引投資者回到其融資平台並簽署更長期的交易，做得不錯。然而，我仍認為 Upstart 最終可能需要獲得銀行牌照並接受存款。金融恐慌或衰退註定會發生，當這些情況發生時，即使公司沒有像 2022 年那樣迅速出現大規模撤離，融資仍可能成為 Upstart 的限制因素。因此，這仍然是未來的潛在風險。</p>
<p>與擁有這種許可證的同行公司（如 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> 和 <strong>LendingClub</strong>）相比，Upstart 仍然更昂貴，無論是按銷售額還是按賬面價值計算。這意味着華爾街已經認為 Upstart 的財務狀況將大幅反彈。考慮到它比這些更具彈性的競爭對手更昂貴，我可能會更多地將投資資金投向這些公司，而不是 Upstart，尤其是在本週股價大幅上漲之後。</p>

UPST

<p>金融科技貸款平台 Upstart 的股價本週上漲了 44%，這主要歸因於超出預期的收益和樂觀的前景。該公司基於人工智能的核保模型和運營改進正在推動這一好轉。Upstart 的營收同比下降了 9%，但管理層預計下半年將有所改善。然而，資金限制和相較競爭對手更高的估值仍然是潛在風險</p>

<p>Shares of fintech loan platform <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) rocketed 44% higher through Thursday of this week, according to data from S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週四，金融科技貸款平台 <strong>Upstart</strong>(UPST -3.68%) 的股價飆升了 44%，根據標普全球市場情報 (S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence) 的數據。</p>
</div><p>The struggling fintech reported better-than-feared earnings amid operational improvements, along with a more optimistic outlook for the back half of the year. Given that the company has been thoroughly beaten down, about 95% below its 2021 highs, the stock rocketed higher on prospects for a turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家陷入困境的金融科技公司在運營改善方面報告了好於預期的收益，同時對下半年的前景持更加樂觀的態度。考慮到該公司的股價已經大幅下跌，跌幅約為 2021 年高點的 95%，股價在轉機前景下飆升。</p>
</div><h2>As interest rates go, so goes Upstart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>利率上升，Upstart 跟着走</h2>
</div><p>Upstart's model is to use artificial intelligence to underwrite personal and auto loans to customers who may be overlooked by banks or other financial institutions, then to sell those loans to loan buyers. The problem Upstart has seen since 2021 is that as interest rates increased rapidly, its loan purchasers fled the platform. Moreover, the dramatic shift to an inflationary environment caused Upstart's loans to slightly underperform in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的模式是利用人工智能為可能被銀行或其他金融機構忽視的客户批准個人和汽車貸款，然後將這些貸款出售給貸款買家。自 2021 年以來，Upstart 面臨的問題是隨着利率迅速上升，其貸款購買者紛紛離開平台。此外，通貨膨脹環境的劇烈轉變導致 Upstart 的貸款在 2022 年略有表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>However, with interest rates seeming to have peaked and Upstart's own model improvements, things may be looking up. During the quarter, management noted improved conversion rates on loan applications, more new loan buyers who signed longer contracts, and more operational efficiency from increased automation. While revenue was down 9% year over year to $128 million and adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings were a negative $0.17 after being slightly positive last year, both figures came in ahead of expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，隨着利率似乎已經觸頂和 Upstart 自身模型的改進，情況可能正在好轉。在本季度，管理層指出貸款申請的轉化率提高，簽署更長合同的新貸款買家增加，自動化程度提高帶來更多運營效率。儘管營收同比下降 9% 至 1.28 億美元，調整後（非 GAAP）盈利為-0.17 美元，去年略為盈利，但這兩個數字均超出預期。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps more importantly, Upstart forecast improvements in the second half. Management now expects $150 million in revenue next quarter, along with narrowing losses. Furthermore, management guided for $320 million in fee revenue in the second half, implying even more growth in Q4, and positive EBITDA by the fourth quarter, flipping from current losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許更重要的是，Upstart 預測下半年將有所改善。管理層現在預計下個季度營收將達到 1.5 億美元，同時虧損將收窄。此外，管理層指導下半年費用收入達到 3.2 億美元，暗示第四季度將有更多增長，並且預計到第四季度將實現正的 EBITDA，從目前的虧損狀況轉為盈利。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Model accuracy, fraud detection, automation, funding resiliency, acquisition costs, and revenue optimization are leaps and bounds better than they were in 2022,&#34; noted CEO Dave Girouard on the conference call with analysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;&#34;模型準確性、欺詐檢測、自動化、資金彈性、收購成本和收入優化等方面，與 2022 年相比，都有了長足的進步，&#34;&#34; CEO 戴夫·吉魯瓦在與分析師的電話會議上指出。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/19c4e5176b86c251e3a5d5291c1cbe25.png"/></p>
<p>UPST PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 的 PS 比數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Upstart's business model still has limitations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Upstart 的商業模式仍然存在侷限性</h2>
</div><p>Upstart has done a nice job of recovering by luring investors back to its funding platform and signing them up to more long-term deals. However, I still think it may be necessary for Upstart to eventually get a banking license and accept deposits. Financial scares or downturns are bound to happen, and when they do, funding may still be a limitation for Upstart, even if it doesn't see the rapid exodus the company saw in 2022. So, that remains a potential risk going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Upstart 通過吸引投資者回到其融資平台並簽署更長期的交易，做得不錯。然而，我仍認為 Upstart 最終可能需要獲得銀行牌照並接受存款。金融恐慌或衰退註定會發生，當這些情況發生時，即使公司沒有像 2022 年那樣迅速出現大規模撤離，融資仍可能成為 Upstart 的限制因素。因此，這仍然是未來的潛在風險。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Upstart remains more expensive than its fintech peers that do have such a license, such as <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> and <strong>LendingClub</strong>, on both a price-to-sales and price-to-book basis. That implies Wall Street already thinks Upstart's financials will bounce back in a big way. Given that it's more expensive than these more resilient competitors, I would perhaps steer more investing dollars there instead of Upstart, especially after this massive jump in the stock this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與擁有這種許可證的同行公司（如 <strong>SoFi Technologies</strong> 和 <strong>LendingClub</strong>）相比，Upstart 仍然更昂貴，無論是按銷售額還是按賬面價值計算。這意味着華爾街已經認為 Upstart 的財務狀況將大幅反彈。考慮到它比這些更具彈性的競爭對手更昂貴，我可能會更多地將投資資金投向這些公司，而不是 Upstart，尤其是在本週股價大幅上漲之後。</p>
</div>

為什麼 Upstart 本週迄今為止飆升了 44%