<p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) 在冠狀病毒大流行期間家喻户曉。消費者們爭相購買該公司的聯網健身設備。但是公司的命運已經轉壞。它是否有機會重拾昔日的魔力，讓股東們成為百萬富翁呢？</p>
<h2>Peloton 和華爾街的智慧</h2>
<p>華爾街有一句諺語，説撿起下跌的刀子有多危險。這句話告訴那些看到股價急劇下跌的投資者，也許存在巨大的扭轉潛力。有時候確實如此。但通常，一個陷入困境的公司就是一個陷入困境的公司。這就是為什麼大多數投資者不應該嘗試投資於扭轉股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>Peloton 是一隻扭轉股。這裏的故事對該公司來説獨一無二，但這個主題在華爾街上經常出現。一家公司推出了引起消費者注意的產品。產品熱潮導致巨大需求，投資者將需求過度延伸到未來，設想鉅額銷售和收益的潛力。該公司的股價飆升。</p>
<p>然後競爭對手開始推出仿製產品。需求並沒有像想象的那樣強勁。熱潮開始消退，華爾街對該股的熱愛也隨之消退。突然間，一個本應朝着天空飛速增長的公司表現不佳，甚至開始虧損...而且虧損越來越多。投資者開始恐慌性拋售，將股價不斷推低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png"/></p>
<p>PTON 數據來源：YCharts</p>
<p>看一下上面 Peloton 的圖表，你可以很容易地看出價格波動中概述的故事。Peloton 的故事版本對 Peloton 來説是獨特的，但總體主題與不久前的 SodaStream（SodaStream 最終被 <strong>百事公司</strong> 收購）相同。然而，今天的問題是，Peloton 是否真的有扭轉潛力。</p>
<h2>Peloton 沒有舵手</h2>
<p>Peloton 最後一次重大推動是將其業務模式從製造聯網健身設備轉變為銷售健身訂閲服務。訂閲服務往往是高毛利的產品，因為你只需創造內容一次，然後一遍又一遍地銷售。考慮到訂閲是聯網設備故事的關鍵部分，這種轉變的想法是合理的。</p>
<p>然而，事實並不如人意。在 2024 財年第三季度，付費應用訂閲數量同比下降了 21%。與公司健身設備相關的訂閲數量要強得多；保持不變。然而，這兩個數字都不代表一個特別好的結果，策劃訂閲理念的首席執行官在 2024 財年第三季度財報發佈當天辭職。</p>
<p>公平地説，自那時以來，Peloton 已經做出了一些重要舉措，包括重新融資即將到期的債務。但這要求公司從零息債務轉向實際帶有成本的債務。具體而言，Peloton 償還了 8 億美元的零息可轉換債務，併發行了 3.5 億美元的帶有 5.5% 利率的可轉換債務。</p>
<p>雖然 Peloton 需要推遲債務到期日並找到一種方式來減少總體槓桿（可轉債發行是一項更大的重組的一部分），但即使在較小的餘額上，從零利息成本到 5.5%，這將使公司更難實現盈利。</p>
<p>但這裏仍然存在一個長期問題尚未解決。鑑於首席執行官的離職，很可能是因為訂閲理念行不通，Peloton 的商業模式是什麼？在有新領導者到位之前，公司實際上是在沒有計劃的情況下運作。如果沒有計劃，就無法評估 Peloton 的扭轉潛力。</p>
<h2>Peloton 接下來的財報可能會很糟糕</h2>
<p>Peloton 定於 2024 財年第四季度財報發佈日期為 8 月 22 日。也許公司會在那時宣佈新的首席執行官，也可能不會。但無論如何，由於其大規模訂閲推動效果不佳，公司的財務業績都不太可能好。而無論新首席執行官何時上任，投資者都需要為需要時間才能獲得成效的方向轉變做好準備。甚至可能需要一段時間，新首席執行官才能提出一個計劃，因為他們可能對公司還很陌生。</p>
<p>這很可能意味着在接下來的幾個季度，至少會有更多的財報壞消息。這也意味着投資者無法真正判斷 Peloton 是否有合法的扭轉潛力，可以讓 Peloton 成為百萬富翁製造者。當然，如果股價回到先前的高點，扭轉吸引力將是巨大的。但目前，大多數投資者應該避開這隻股票，因為今天沒有明確的路徑朝着這樣的結果。風險/回報平衡目前仍傾向於錯誤的方向。</p>

PTON

<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）在疫情期間備受歡迎後經歷了下滑。該公司試圖轉向訂閲模式，但在 2024 年第三季度付費應用訂閲下降了 21%，導致首席執行官離職。Peloton 在再融資後面臨着增加的債務成本。由於缺乏新 CEO，公司未來方向不明確，即將公佈的財報預計將令人失望。投資者應為未來面臨的具有挑戰性的財務結果做好準備，因為缺乏堅實的扭轉策略</p>

<p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) was a household name during the coronavirus pandemic. Consumers were lined up to buy the company's connected exercise equipment. But the company's fortunes have turned for the worse. Is there a chance that it could get back the old magic and turn shareholders into millionaires?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Peloton Interactive</strong>(PTON 5.00%) 在冠狀病毒大流行期間家喻户曉。消費者們爭相購買該公司的聯網健身設備。但是公司的命運已經轉壞。它是否有機會重拾昔日的魔力，讓股東們成為百萬富翁呢？</p>
</div><h2>Peloton and Wall Street wisdom</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 和華爾街的智慧</h2>
</div><p>There's a saying on Wall Street about how dangerous it is to try to catch a falling knife. That saying speaks to investors that see a steeply falling stock price and think that, maybe, there's huge turnaround potential. Sometimes, there is. But usually a troubled company is just a troubled company. This is why most investors shouldn't try to invest in turnaround stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街有一句諺語，説撿起下跌的刀子有多危險。這句話告訴那些看到股價急劇下跌的投資者，也許存在巨大的扭轉潛力。有時候確實如此。但通常，一個陷入困境的公司就是一個陷入困境的公司。這就是為什麼大多數投資者不應該嘗試投資於扭轉股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMTkvMjJfMDlfMDktYS1wZXJzb24tb24tYW4tZXhlcmNpc2UtYmlrZS1fcGVsb3Rvbi1pbWFnZS1zb3VyY2VfLWdldHR5LV9tZi1kbG9hZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788019%2F22_09_09-a-person-on-an-exercise-bike-_peloton-image-source_-getty-_mf-dload.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Peloton is a turnaround stock. The story here is unique to the company, but the theme is repeated quite frequently on Wall Street. A company creates a product that catches the attention of consumers. The product fad leads to huge demand and investors extrapolate the demand too far into the future, envisioning the potential for huge sales and earnings. The stock of the company rockets higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 是一隻扭轉股。這裏的故事對該公司來説獨一無二，但這個主題在華爾街上經常出現。一家公司推出了引起消費者注意的產品。產品熱潮導致巨大需求，投資者將需求過度延伸到未來，設想鉅額銷售和收益的潛力。該公司的股價飆升。</p>
</div><p>Then competitors start to create me-too products. And demand doesn't prove to be quite as resilient as thought. The fad begins to fade and so, too, does Wall Street's love for the stock. Suddenly a company that was expected to grow to the sky isn't doing so well, perhaps it even starts losing money...and more money. Investors begin to flee in fear, pushing the stock down further and further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後競爭對手開始推出仿製產品。需求並沒有像想象的那樣強勁。熱潮開始消退，華爾街對該股的熱愛也隨之消退。突然間，一個本應朝着天空飛速增長的公司表現不佳，甚至開始虧損...而且虧損越來越多。投資者開始恐慌性拋售，將股價不斷推低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/09285200fd94481a47f15422c173a41b.png"/></p>
<p>PTON data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PTON 數據來源：YCharts</p>
</div><p>Look at the chart for Peloton above and you can easily see the broad story outlined in the price movements. Peloton's version of the story is unique to Peloton, but the general theme is the same as it was for, say, SodaStream not too long ago (SodaStream ended up selling itself to <strong>PepsiCo</strong>). The question today, however, is whether or not there is really turnaround potential from here for Peloton.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看一下上面 Peloton 的圖表，你可以很容易地看出價格波動中概述的故事。Peloton 的故事版本對 Peloton 來説是獨特的，但總體主題與不久前的 SodaStream（SodaStream 最終被 <strong>百事公司</strong> 收購）相同。然而，今天的問題是，Peloton 是否真的有扭轉潛力。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton is rudderless</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 沒有舵手</h2>
</div><p>The last big push for Peloton was to shift its business model from making connected exercise equipment to selling an exercise subscription service. Subscriptions tend to be fairly high-margin offerings because you create content once and then sell it over and over again. The idea behind this shift, given that subscriptions were a key part of the connected equipment story, was reasonable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 最後一次重大推動是將其業務模式從製造聯網健身設備轉變為銷售健身訂閲服務。訂閲服務往往是高毛利的產品，因為你只需創造內容一次，然後一遍又一遍地銷售。考慮到訂閲是聯網設備故事的關鍵部分，這種轉變的想法是合理的。</p>
</div><p>However, it simply didn't work out as well as hoped. In the fiscal third quarter of 2024, the number of paid app subscriptions fell 21% year over year. The number of subscriptions related to the company's exercise equipment was much stronger; it was flat. Still, neither of those numbers represents a particularly good outcome, and the CEO that orchestrated the subscription idea stepped down the same day that fiscal third quarter 2024 earnings were released.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，事實並不如人意。在 2024 財年第三季度，付費應用訂閲數量同比下降了 21%。與公司健身設備相關的訂閲數量要強得多；保持不變。然而，這兩個數字都不代表一個特別好的結果，策劃訂閲理念的首席執行官在 2024 財年第三季度財報發佈當天辭職。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, Peloton has made some important moves since that point, including refinancing debt that was set to mature soon. But that required the company to go from debt with a zero coupon, sold when the Peloton fad was in full swing, to debt with actual costs associated with it. To put a number on that, Peloton paid off $800 million of zero-coupon convertible debt and took on $350 million of convertible debt with a 5.5% interest rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，自那時以來，Peloton 已經做出了一些重要舉措，包括重新融資即將到期的債務。但這要求公司從零息債務轉向實際帶有成本的債務。具體而言，Peloton 償還了 8 億美元的零息可轉換債務，併發行了 3.5 億美元的帶有 5.5% 利率的可轉換債務。</p>
</div><p>While Peloton needed to push out its debt maturities and find a way to reduce overall leverage (the convertible issuance was part of a larger restructuring), going from zero interest costs to 5.5%, even on a smaller balance, will just make it harder for the company to become profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然 Peloton 需要推遲債務到期日並找到一種方式來減少總體槓桿（可轉債發行是一項更大的重組的一部分），但即使在較小的餘額上，從零利息成本到 5.5%，這將使公司更難實現盈利。</p>
</div><p>But there's a longer-term problem here that still hasn't been addressed. Given the departure of the CEO, likely because the subscription idea didn't work out, what's Peloton's business model? Until there's a new leader in place, the company is really operating without a plan. There's no way to assess Peloton's turnaround potential if there's no plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這裏仍然存在一個長期問題尚未解決。鑑於首席執行官的離職，很可能是因為訂閲理念行不通，Peloton 的商業模式是什麼？在有新領導者到位之前，公司實際上是在沒有計劃的情況下運作。如果沒有計劃，就無法評估 Peloton 的扭轉潛力。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton's next earnings reports could be ugly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 接下來的財報可能會很糟糕</h2>
</div><p>Peloton is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Aug. 22. Maybe it will announce a new CEO at that point, maybe not. But the company's financial results are unlikely to be good either way since its big subscription push has fallen flat. And whenever a new CEO comes in, hopefully sooner rather than later, investors need to be prepared for a direction shift that will take time to gain traction. It might even take a little while for a new CEO to come up with a plan, since they'll probably be new to the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 定於 2024 財年第四季度財報發佈日期為 8 月 22 日。也許公司會在那時宣佈新的首席執行官，也可能不會。但無論如何，由於其大規模訂閲推動效果不佳，公司的財務業績都不太可能好。而無論新首席執行官何時上任，投資者都需要為需要時間才能獲得成效的方向轉變做好準備。甚至可能需要一段時間，新首席執行官才能提出一個計劃，因為他們可能對公司還很陌生。</p>
</div><p>That likely means more bad news from earnings over the next couple of quarters, at the very least. And it also means there's no way for investors to really tell if there's legitimate turnaround potential that could turn Peloton into a millionaire maker. Sure, if the stock got back to its previous highs the turnaround appeal would be massive. But at this point, most investors should avoid the stock because there's no clear path toward such an outcome today. The risk/reward balance remains tilted in the wrong direction for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很可能意味着在接下來的幾個季度，至少會有更多的財報壞消息。這也意味着投資者無法真正判斷 Peloton 是否有合法的扭轉潛力，可以讓 Peloton 成為百萬富翁製造者。當然，如果股價回到先前的高點，扭轉吸引力將是巨大的。但目前，大多數投資者應該避開這隻股票，因為今天沒有明確的路徑朝着這樣的結果。風險/回報平衡目前仍傾向於錯誤的方向。</p>
</div>

Peloton 能幫助你成為百萬富翁嗎？