<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg"/></p>
<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股價在高度備受爭議的公司發佈了適度的業績，並將重心轉向盈利而非過去的增長後，表現強勁。股價上漲並升至重要的$5 阻力點，為自 3 月 14 日以來的最高點。從今年最低點起漲幅超過 71%。</p>
<h2>Peloton 持續扭轉局面</h2>
<p>Peloton Interactive 在過去五年經歷了一段艱難時期。隨着在 Covid 封鎖期間對其硬件和軟件的需求激增，其股價最初飆升至 2021 年的歷史高點$170。在股價最高時，其市值飆升至超過 530 億美元。</p>
<p>疫情對該公司來説是苦樂參半的，因為其營收飆升至 40 多億美元。然而，問題在於公司生產了更多的自行車和跑步機，期望需求會永遠保持高位。結果，其庫存從 2020 年的 2.44 億美元增至 2022 年的超過 11 億美元。</p>
<p>為了處理這些庫存，Peloton 調整了策略。公司不再僅在內部銷售產品，還將其添加到亞馬遜等其他主流購物平台上。</p>
<p>這一轉變對公司影響不大，因為其年營收從 2021 年的 40 億美元的峯值下降至 2022 年的 35 億美元，2023 年的 28 億美元，以及上一個財年的 27 億美元。</p>
<p>公司也成為了現金焚燒機，其淨虧損在 2022 年達到 28 億美元的峯值，隨後分別縮減至 12 億美元和 5.51 億美元。</p>
<h2>最新財報</h2>
<p>Peloton 股價飆升的主要催化劑是其最近的財務業績，顯示公司取得了一些適度進展，儘管起點較低。</p>
<p>會員數量同比下降 2% 至 640 萬，訂閲者數量下降 1% 至 280 萬。付費應用訂閲結束下降了 26%。</p>
<p>儘管公司對低流失率感到高興，但我認為用户趨勢並不樂觀，因為公司未像以往那樣增加會員。此外，我懷疑由於健身行業的一般趨勢，流失率將隨時間增加。大多數人最初訂閲健身解決方案，然後在途中放棄。</p>
<p>業績顯示，公司上一季度總營收為 6.43 億美元，略高於一年前的 6.42 億美元。這一營收主要來自其訂閲服務，帶來了超過 4.31 億美元的收入，而其聯網健身產品下降了 4% 至 2.12 億美元。</p>
<p>訂閲業務的毛利率為 68.2%，這是一個不錯的數字，因為像 Netflix 的毛利率為 43.84%，Spotify 為 27.54%，紐約時報為 48%，Zoom Video 為 76%。</p>
<p>高毛利率意味着 Peloton Interactive 未來有擴大利潤率的空間。其淨虧損從 2.4 億美元改善至 3040 萬美元，公司的自由現金流增至 2600 萬美元。</p>
<p>Peloton 預計其付費訂閲將增至 298 萬，年營收將達到 27 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 將為 350 萬美元。分析師預計其營收將達到 26.1 億美元。</p>
<p>然而，我認為改善指標一個季度並不能反映公司的整體情況，因為其業務仍面臨挑戰。競爭仍然是一個大問題，而其硬件銷售在未來增長空間有限。</p>
<p>因此，我認為我們需要更多季度的營收增長和會員增長來證明公司股價的飆升。</p>
<h2>Peloton 股價分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>日線圖顯示了為什麼 PTON 股價在過去幾天內飆升，正如我在 7 月預測的那樣。公司在 2.83 美元形成了雙底模式後躍升。現在已經突破了第一個頸線位 4 美元和第二個頸線位 4.78 美元，即 5 月 14 日的最高點。</p>
<p>Peloton 還突破了 200 日指數移動平均線（EMA），這意味着多頭控制局面。因此，短期內，Peloton 可能上漲至下一個關鍵阻力點 7.23 美元。</p>
<p>然而，從長期來看，Peloton 股價存在下跌風險，因為投資者等待更多關於其業務復甦的明確信息。</p>
<p>本文首發於 Invezz，原文鏈接：My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what?</p>

PTON

<p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股票從今年最低點起已經上漲超過 71%，主要是因為公司將重心轉向盈利。儘管面臨重大挑戰和會員數量下降的壓力，最近的財務結果顯示出輕微的收入增長歸因於其訂閲服務。未來前景仍然謹慎，硬件銷售和競爭對增長造成壓力可能存在潛在風險。短期勢頭看起來積極，股票表現呈現出看漲的模式，但需要長期復甦的明確跡象來證明最近股價的激增</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/peloton-taps-amazon-to-boost-us-sales.jpg"/></p>
<p>Peloton Interactive (PTON) stock price is firing on all cylinders after the highly-embattled company published modest results and pivoted towards profitability instead of growth as it did in the past. It made an up-gap and rose to the important resistance point at $5, its highest swing since March 14. It has risen by over 71% from its lowest point this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton Interactive（PTON）股價在高度備受爭議的公司發佈了適度的業績，並將重心轉向盈利而非過去的增長後，表現強勁。股價上漲並升至重要的$5 阻力點，為自 3 月 14 日以來的最高點。從今年最低點起漲幅超過 71%。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton’s turnaround continues</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 持續扭轉局面</h2>
</div><p>Peloton Interactive has gone through a rough patch in the past five years. Its stock initially surged to a record high of $170 in 2021 as demand for its hardware and software surged during the Covid lockdowns. At its peak, its market cap surged to over $53 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton Interactive 在過去五年經歷了一段艱難時期。隨着在 Covid 封鎖期間對其硬件和軟件的需求激增，其股價最初飆升至 2021 年的歷史高點$170。在股價最高時，其市值飆升至超過 530 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The pandemic was a bittersweet for the company as its revenue surged to over $4 billion. However, the implication was that the company manufactured more bikes and treadmills expecting that demand would remain high forever. As a result, its inventory rose from $244 million in 2020 to over $1.1 billion in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疫情對該公司來説是苦樂參半的，因為其營收飆升至 40 多億美元。然而，問題在於公司生產了更多的自行車和跑步機，期望需求會永遠保持高位。結果，其庫存從 2020 年的 2.44 億美元增至 2022 年的超過 11 億美元。</p>
</div><p>To deal with that inventory, Peloton shifted gears and changed its strategy. Instead of selling its products just in-house, it added them in other mainstream shopping platforms like Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了處理這些庫存，Peloton 調整了策略。公司不再僅在內部銷售產品，還將其添加到亞馬遜等其他主流購物平台上。</p>
</div><p>This transition has not had a major impact on the company as its annual revenue dropped from a peak of $4 billion in 2021 to $3.5 billion in 2022, $2.8 billion in 2023, and $2.7 billion in the last financial year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一轉變對公司影響不大，因為其年營收從 2021 年的 40 億美元的峯值下降至 2022 年的 35 億美元，2023 年的 28 億美元，以及上一個財年的 27 億美元。</p>
</div><p>It has also become a cash incinerator, with its net loss peaking at $2.8 billion in 2022. It then narrowed to $1.2 billion and $551 million in the next two financial years, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司也成為了現金焚燒機，其淨虧損在 2022 年達到 28 億美元的峯值，隨後分別縮減至 12 億美元和 5.51 億美元。</p>
</div><h2>Latest earnings report</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最新財報</h2>
</div><p>The main catalyst for the Peloton stock price surge was its recent financial results, which showed that the company made some modest progress, albeit from a low base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 股價飆升的主要催化劑是其最近的財務業績，顯示公司取得了一些適度進展，儘管起點較低。</p>
</div><p>The number of members dropped by 2% YoY to 6.4 million while the number of subscribers fell by 1% to 2.8 million. Ending paid app subscriptions fell by 26%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>會員數量同比下降 2% 至 640 萬，訂閲者數量下降 1% 至 280 萬。付費應用訂閲結束下降了 26%。</p>
</div><p>While the company hailed the low churn, I believe that the user trends are not good since the company is not adding members as it did before. Also, I suspect that churn will increase over time because of the general trends in the fitness industry. Ideally, most people subscribe to fitness solutions and then give up along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管公司對低流失率感到高興，但我認為用户趨勢並不樂觀，因為公司未像以往那樣增加會員。此外，我懷疑由於健身行業的一般趨勢，流失率將隨時間增加。大多數人最初訂閲健身解決方案，然後在途中放棄。</p>
</div><p>The results showed that its total revenue stood at $643 million in the last quarter, up slightly from the $642 million it made a year earlier. This revenue was mostly because of its subscriptions, which brought in over $431 million while its connected fitness products dropped by 4% to $212 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>業績顯示，公司上一季度總營收為 6.43 億美元，略高於一年前的 6.42 億美元。這一營收主要來自其訂閲服務，帶來了超過 4.31 億美元的收入，而其聯網健身產品下降了 4% 至 2.12 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The subscription business had a gross margin of 68.2%, which is a good one since a company like Netflix has a margin of 43.84% while Spotify has 27.54%. The New York Times has a margin of 48% while Zoom Video has 76%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>訂閲業務的毛利率為 68.2%，這是一個不錯的數字，因為像 Netflix 的毛利率為 43.84%，Spotify 為 27.54%，紐約時報為 48%，Zoom Video 為 76%。</p>
</div><p>The high gross margin figure means that Peloton Interactive has room to expand its profit margin in the future. Its net loss improved from $240 million to $30.4 million while the company’s free cash flow rose to $26 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高毛利率意味着 Peloton Interactive 未來有擴大利潤率的空間。其淨虧損從 2.4 億美元改善至 3040 萬美元，公司的自由現金流增至 2600 萬美元。</p>
</div><p>Peloton expects that its paid subscriptions will move to 2.98 million while its annual revenue will be $2.7 billion and its adjusted EBITDA will be $3.5 million. Analysts see its revenue coming in at $2.61 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 預計其付費訂閲將增至 298 萬，年營收將達到 27 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 將為 350 萬美元。分析師預計其營收將達到 26.1 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Still, I believe that one quarter of improved metrics does not reflect the company’s bigger picture as its business continues to face challenges. Competition is still a big issue while its hardware sales have little room to grow in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為改善指標一個季度並不能反映公司的整體情況，因為其業務仍面臨挑戰。競爭仍然是一個大問題，而其硬件銷售在未來增長空間有限。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, I believe that we need some more quarters of growing revenues and memberships to justify the company’s stock surge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我認為我們需要更多季度的營收增長和會員增長來證明公司股價的飆升。</p>
</div><h2>Peloton stock price analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Peloton 股價分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Peloton-stock-1024x568.png"/></p>
<p>The daily chart shows why the PTON share price has surged in the past few days, as I predicted in July. Its jump happened after the company formed a double-bottom pattern at $2.83. It has now moved above the first neckline at $4 and the second one at $4.78, its highest point on May 14.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示了為什麼 PTON 股價在過去幾天內飆升，正如我在 7 月預測的那樣。公司在 2.83 美元形成了雙底模式後躍升。現在已經突破了第一個頸線位 4 美元和第二個頸線位 4.78 美元，即 5 月 14 日的最高點。</p>
</div><p>Peloton has also jumped above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), meaning that bulls are in control. Therefore, in the short-term, Peloton could rise to the next pivotal resistance point at $7.23.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Peloton 還突破了 200 日指數移動平均線（EMA），這意味着多頭控制局面。因此，短期內，Peloton 可能上漲至下一個關鍵阻力點 7.23 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, in the long-term, there is a risk that the Peloton share price will drop as investors wait for more clarity about its business recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，從長期來看，Peloton 股價存在下跌風險，因為投資者等待更多關於其業務復甦的明確信息。</p>
</div><p>The post My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首發於 Invezz，原文鏈接：My Peloton stock price forecast was accurate: now what?</p>
</div>

我對 Peloton 股票價格的預測是準確的：接下來該怎麼辦？