<p>氫燃料開發商 <strong>普拉格能源</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) 的股票一直是一次坎坷的旅程。但自 2021 年初以來，這次旅程一直在持續走低。當時，股價曾高達每股 70 美元。而今，股價已跌至 3 美元以下。</p>
<p>華爾街一直在錯誤地預測股價的走勢。在 2021 年，就在股價暴跌之前，將近十家公司對該股票給予了買入評級。</p>
<p>自那些高點以來，華爾街的預期已大幅下調，但平均目標價仍保持在每股近 5 美元，是當前股價的 <strong>兩倍</strong> 多。分析師們最終可能會説對嗎？現在是押注普拉格能源的時候了嗎？答案可能會讓你感到意外。(紐約證券交易所: GS)</p>
<h2>這就是華爾街無法預測普拉格能源的原因</h2>
<p>華爾街難以準確預測普拉格能源股票走勢的最大原因之一是，其現金流拐點可能要等數年，甚至幾十年才會到來。<strong>高盛</strong> 分析師特別指出了該公司遙遠的現金流預測。根據這些分析師的説法，普拉格能源的股權期限為 25.8 年。這意味着公司預期現金流的加權平均期約為 26 年。需要注意的是，類似期限的債券被視為_非常_長期。</p>
<p>因為華爾街通常使用貼現現金流模型來估值一家公司，他們必須估計然後將預期現金流貼現回現值。現金流越遙遠，就越容易受到假設變化的影響。</p>
<p>除非監管政策出現突然變化，氫燃料電池需求可能要到 2030 年至早才會達到最大拐點。正如全球諮詢公司麥肯錫最近得出的結論，“全球清潔氫需求預計到 2050 年將大幅增長，但需要基礎設施規模擴大和技術進步來滿足預期需求。” 這些基礎設施缺口需要多年時間來解決。在那之前，普拉格能源可能會花費數十億美元進行資本支出，儘管經營業務虧損。例如，在過去一年中，該公司每個季度花費 1 億至 2 億美元建設新工廠和其他為增長所需的基礎設施。然而，在此期間，淨虧損總額超過 10 億美元，超過了公司今天的市值的一半。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼多年來華爾街對普拉格能源一直判斷錯誤的原因。分析師們被要求預測遙遠的現金流。隨着虧損加劇、競爭加劇和利率上升，這些預期現金流被推遲到更遙遠的未來，對股價產生了巨大的負面影響。</p>
<h2>普拉格能源股票真的能漲 130% 嗎？</h2>
<p>現在有一個重要的問題需要問：這一次會有所不同嗎？普拉格能源股票目前的平均一年目標價為 4.91 美元。這比當前股價高出約 130%。但重要的是要知道，預測之間存在很大的差異。例如，一個目標價接近每股 19 美元，而另一些則低至每股 1.52 美元。</p>
<p>普拉格能源股票真的能漲 130% 嗎？這令人懷疑。導致公司股價在近年暴跌的所有壓力至今仍然存在。事實上，它們可能比以往任何時候都更強大。儘管新的法規和激勵措施對氫需求增長更加有利，但很明顯，潛在的轉變仍需要數十年的時間。要推廣清潔氫燃料的經濟學和基礎設施仍未就位。與此同時，普拉格能源的財務資源持續減少。去年，該公司的審計師發佈了一份關於瀕臨破產的通知，表明如果不採取果斷措施，就會面臨破產。普拉格能源通過大規模稀釋股東來解決這些問題，這是它在最近幾個季度繼續做的事情。</p>
<p>普拉格能源目前處於一個進退兩難的境地。其持續的虧損迫使其不斷向債務和股本市場融資。然而，正面現金流仍需數年時間。這限制了其投資於新創新的能力，使競爭對手得以開發更新、更便宜、更高效的解決方案。明智的投資者現在應該暫時觀望。</p>

普拉格能源

<p>華爾街一直在錯誤判斷普拉格能源的股票，自 2021 年以來股價一直下跌。導致這種情況的因素包括延遲的現金流預測和持續虧損中的大量資本支出。分析師預測股價可能會上漲 130％，但預測存在較大差異，持續的財務挑戰使前景仍然存疑。普拉格能源過度依賴外部融資和負面現金流限制了創新，使投資者保持謹慎。總體而言，普拉格能源面臨着重大障礙，可能阻礙其股票價值的潛在上漲</p>

<p>The stock of hydrogen fuel developer <strong>Plug Power</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) has been a bumpy ride. But since the start of 2021, that ride has been consistently lower. Back then, the stock was valued as high as $70 per share. Today, the share price is below $3.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>氫燃料開發商 <strong>普拉格能源</strong>(PLUG 3.77%) 的股票一直是一次坎坷的旅程。但自 2021 年初以來，這次旅程一直在持續走低。當時，股價曾高達每股 70 美元。而今，股價已跌至 3 美元以下。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street has been consistently wrong about where the stock price is headed next. In 2021, right before shares collapsed, nearly a dozen firms had a buy rating on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街一直在錯誤地預測股價的走勢。在 2021 年，就在股價暴跌之前，將近十家公司對該股票給予了買入評級。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street expectations have come down sharply since those highs, but the average price target remains at nearly $5 per share -- more than <em>double</em> the current share price. Could analysts finally be right? Is now the time to bet big on Plug Power? The answer might surprise you. (NYSE: GS)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那些高點以來，華爾街的預期已大幅下調，但平均目標價仍保持在每股近 5 美元，是當前股價的 <strong>兩倍</strong> 多。分析師們最終可能會説對嗎？現在是押注普拉格能源的時候了嗎？答案可能會讓你感到意外。(紐約證券交易所: GS)</p>
</div><h2>This is why Wall Street can't predict Plug</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這就是華爾街無法預測普拉格能源的原因</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest reasons why Wall Street has struggled to accurately predict the direction of Plug Power stock is that its cash flow inflection point could be years, if not decades, into the future. <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> analysts have specifically called the company out for its distant cash flow projections. According to those analysts, Plug Power has an equity duration of 25.8 years. That means that the weighted average of the company's expected cash flows is around 26 years. Take note that a bond of similar duration would be considered <em>very</em> long-term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街難以準確預測普拉格能源股票走勢的最大原因之一是，其現金流拐點可能要等數年，甚至幾十年才會到來。<strong>高盛</strong> 分析師特別指出了該公司遙遠的現金流預測。根據這些分析師的説法，普拉格能源的股權期限為 25.8 年。這意味着公司預期現金流的加權平均期約為 26 年。需要注意的是，類似期限的債券被視為_非常_長期。</p>
</div><p>Because Wall Street often uses a discounted cash flow model to value a company, they must estimate and then discount projected cash flows back to the present. The more distant a cash flow is, the more sensitive it is to changes in assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因為華爾街通常使用貼現現金流模型來估值一家公司，他們必須估計然後將預期現金流貼現回現值。現金流越遙遠，就越容易受到假設變化的影響。</p>
</div><p>Barring a sudden change in regulatory policy, it's likely that hydrogen fuel cell demand won't reach its biggest inflection point until 2030 at the earliest. As global consultancy McKinsey recently concluded, &#34;Global clean hydrogen demand is projected to grow significantly to 2050, but infrastructure scale-up and technology advancements are needed to meet projected demand.&#34; These infrastructure gaps will take many years to resolve. Until then, Plug Power will likely be spending billions in capital expenditures despite operating a money-losing business. Over the last year, for example, the company has spent between $100 million and $200 million per quarter building new plants and other infrastructure required for growth. Yet over that time period, net losses totaled well over $1 billion -- more than half of the company's entire market cap today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非監管政策出現突然變化，氫燃料電池需求可能要到 2030 年至早才會達到最大拐點。正如全球諮詢公司麥肯錫最近得出的結論，“全球清潔氫需求預計到 2050 年將大幅增長，但需要基礎設施規模擴大和技術進步來滿足預期需求。” 這些基礎設施缺口需要多年時間來解決。在那之前，普拉格能源可能會花費數十億美元進行資本支出，儘管經營業務虧損。例如，在過去一年中，該公司每個季度花費 1 億至 2 億美元建設新工廠和其他為增長所需的基礎設施。然而，在此期間，淨虧損總額超過 10 億美元，超過了公司今天的市值的一半。</p>
</div><p>This all adds up to why Wall Street has been so wrong about Plug Power over the years. Analysts were required to project cash flows that were far into the future. With mounting losses, increased competition, and higher interest rates, these projected cash flows have been pushed out even further into the future, having an outsized negative effect on the share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼多年來華爾街對普拉格能源一直判斷錯誤的原因。分析師們被要求預測遙遠的現金流。隨着虧損加劇、競爭加劇和利率上升，這些預期現金流被推遲到更遙遠的未來，對股價產生了巨大的負面影響。</p>
</div><h2>Can Plug Power stock really rise by 130%?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>普拉格能源股票真的能漲 130% 嗎？</h2>
</div><p>There's one important question to ask right now: Is this time different? The average one-year price target for Plug Power stock right now is $4.91. That's around 130% higher than the current stock price. But it's important to know that there's a huge variance between predictions. One price target, for instance, is nearly $19 per share, while others are as low as $1.52 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在有一個重要的問題需要問：這一次會有所不同嗎？普拉格能源股票目前的平均一年目標價為 4.91 美元。這比當前股價高出約 130%。但重要的是要知道，預測之間存在很大的差異。例如，一個目標價接近每股 19 美元，而另一些則低至每股 1.52 美元。</p>
</div><p>Can Plug Power stock actually rise by 130%? It's doubtful. All of the pressures that led to the company's share price collapse in recent years persist to this day. In fact, they may be stronger than ever before. While new regulations and incentives are growing more accommodating for hydrogen demand growth, it's clear that a potential transition would still take decades. The economics and infrastructure to scale clear hydrogen fuel simply aren't in place yet. Meanwhile, Plug Power's financial resources continue to dwindle. Last year, the company's auditors issued a going concern notice, indicating that insolvency was imminent if drastic measures weren't taken. Plug Power addressed those concerns by massively diluting shareholders, something it continued to do in recent quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普拉格能源股票真的能漲 130% 嗎？這令人懷疑。導致公司股價在近年暴跌的所有壓力至今仍然存在。事實上，它們可能比以往任何時候都更強大。儘管新的法規和激勵措施對氫需求增長更加有利，但很明顯，潛在的轉變仍需要數十年的時間。要推廣清潔氫燃料的經濟學和基礎設施仍未就位。與此同時，普拉格能源的財務資源持續減少。去年，該公司的審計師發佈了一份關於瀕臨破產的通知，表明如果不採取果斷措施，就會面臨破產。普拉格能源通過大規模稀釋股東來解決這些問題，這是它在最近幾個季度繼續做的事情。</p>
</div><p>Plug Power is simply between a rock and a hard place right now. Its persistent losses force it to continually tap the debt and equity markets. Yet positive cash flows remain many years away. This limits its ability to invest in new innovation, allowing competitors to develop newer, cheaper, more efficient solutions. Wise investors should stick to the sidelines for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>普拉格能源目前處於一個進退兩難的境地。其持續的虧損迫使其不斷向債務和股本市場融資。然而，正面現金流仍需數年時間。這限制了其投資於新創新的能力，使競爭對手得以開發更新、更便宜、更高效的解決方案。明智的投資者現在應該暫時觀望。</p>
</div>

華爾街對普拉格能源的判斷出錯了。以下是原因