<p><strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>（KHC 1.10%）自從九年前由卡夫和亨氏合併而成以來一直是令人失望的投資。合併後的公司股價於 2015 年 7 月 6 日開盤價為 48.55 美元，但現在交易價格略低於 36 美元。</p>
<p>卡夫亨氏最初被認為是一家穩定的藍籌消費類股票，但在 2019 年以 150 億美元計提其頂級品牌減值、削減股息以及披露與其會計實踐相關的 SEC 調查後，震動了投資者。其當時的首席執行官伯納多·伊斯在做出這些公告幾個月後辭職。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>伊斯的繼任者米格爾·帕特里西奧引導公司度過挑戰，直到去年辭職並將掌舵交給卡洛斯·阿布拉姆斯 - 裏韋拉。在這兩位首席執行官的領導下，卡夫亨氏的股價穩定並上漲約 14%。儘管仍遠低於首次上市價格，但我認為出於五個簡單原因，值得購買。</p>
<h2>1. 卡夫亨氏克服了以往的問題</h2>
<p>帕特里西奧接任時，卡夫亨氏的許多品牌陷入困境。消費者開始偏愛更健康的食品，大型連鎖超市也逐漸成為擁有自有品牌的強大競爭對手。卡夫亨氏的管理層過於專注於削減成本和回購股份以提高每股收益（EPS），而非簡化其產品組合、更新產品，並推出新的營銷活動以抵禦這些威脅。</p>
<p>但在帕特里西奧的領導下，卡夫亨氏剝離了較弱的品牌以籌集現金，收購了增長更快的品牌，並通過推出新產品和營銷活動為經典品牌注入新活力。這些策略使其在 2020 年和 2021 年有望實現增長，因為新冠疫情驅使更多人囤積包裝食品。它還通過逐漸提高價格來抵消 2022 年和 2023 年的通貨膨脹壓力。</p>
<h2>2. 其營收增長已穩定</h2>
<p>在過去五年中，卡夫亨氏的淨銷售增長（包括剝離、收購和貨幣波動）波動較大。然而，在過去四年中，隨着其重新組織品牌組合，其有機銷售保持為正。</p>
<p>指標 |</p>
<p>2019 年 |</p>
<p>2020 年 |</p>
<p>2021 年 |</p>
<p>2022 年 |</p>
<p>2023 年 |
|</p>
<p>有機銷售增長 |</p>
<p>預計今年其有機銷售將下降 0% 至 2%，因為在其國際發達市場中提價空間有限。這種壓力抵消了其在北美和國際新興市場成功提價的成果。</p>
<p>這種放緩可能看起來像一個警示信號，但隨着通貨膨脹最終消退，其增長應會再次加速。它還一直在擴大其面向外出用餐市場的產品範圍，為餐廳和企業推出新產品，更新舊品牌，並考慮剝離奧斯卡·梅耶以進一步簡化其有機增長。目前，分析師預計其淨銷售將從 2023 年到 2026 年以 1% 的緩慢但穩定的複合年增長率增長。</p>
<h2>3. 卡夫亨氏的毛利率和營運利潤率正在上升</h2>
<p>卡夫亨氏的毛利率和營運利潤率在 2022 年受通貨膨脹的影響而受到擠壓，但這兩個指標在過去 18 個月中顯著擴大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png"/></p>
<p>來源：YCharts。</p>
<p>公司預計，2024 年其調整後毛利率將擴大 75 至 125 個基點，其調整後營運利潤率將提高 1 至 3 個百分點。它還預計其調整後每股收益將增長 1% 至 3%，達到 3.01 至 3.07 美元。分析師預計其報告的每股收益將從 2023 年到 2026 年以 13% 的複合年增長率增加。</p>
<h2>4. 卡夫亨氏估值低，股息率高</h2>
<p>以 35 美元的價格，卡夫亨氏股票交易僅為今年盈利中點的 12 倍。相比之下，其行業同行 <strong>通用磨坊</strong> 和 <strong>蒙德利茲</strong> 的前瞻性盈利分別為 16 倍和 21 倍。最近同意被馬氏收購的 <strong>凱拉諾娃</strong> 的前瞻性盈利為 22 倍。這種低估值，加上其高達 4.5% 的前瞻性股息率，應該限制卡夫亨氏的下行潛力。</p>
<h2>5. 沃倫·巴菲特仍持有該股</h2>
<p>最後但並非最不重要的是，沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾 - 哈撒韋</strong> -- 與卡夫合併亨氏的合作方 -- 仍持有公司已發行股份的 26.9%。這一價值 115 億美元的股份佔伯克希爾投資組合的 3.7%，並未在最近出售幾家知名公司股票時減持或清倉。</p>
<p>巴菲特決定繼續持有卡夫亨氏表明其業務並未走下坡路。它肯定不會立即起飛，但應該是一個不錯的地方來安置您的資金，並在宏觀風險消退之前收取一些可觀的股息。因此，如果您正在尋找一個作為避風港投資的優質藍籌股，卡夫亨氏符合許多正確選擇的條件。</p>

卡夫亨氏

<p>卡夫亨氏（KHC）股票自 2015 年合併以來面臨挑戰，包括重大減記和領導層變動。然而，在新管理團隊的領導下，該公司改善了其品牌組合，並實現了正面的有機銷售增長。投資的關鍵原因包括穩定的營收增長、增長的利潤率、低估值（市盈率為 12 倍）以及高達 4.5% 的股息收益率。此外，沃倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司持有該公司的重要股份，進一步證實了其復甦和增長潛力</p>

<p><strong>Kraft Heinz</strong>(KHC 1.10%) has been a disappointing investment ever since it was created from the merger between Kraft and Heinz nine years ago. The combined company's shares opened at $48.55 on July 6, 2015, but they now trade just below $36.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>（KHC 1.10%）自從九年前由卡夫和亨氏合併而成以來一直是令人失望的投資。合併後的公司股價於 2015 年 7 月 6 日開盤價為 48.55 美元，但現在交易價格略低於 36 美元。</p>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz was initially considered a stable blue chip consumer staples stock, but it rattled its investors in 2019 with a $15 billion writedown on its top brands, a dividend cut, and the disclosure of an SEC probe related to its accounting practices. Its then-CEO Bernardo Hees stepped down a few months after making those announcements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏最初被認為是一家穩定的藍籌消費類股票，但在 2019 年以 150 億美元計提其頂級品牌減值、削減股息以及披露與其會計實踐相關的 SEC 調查後，震動了投資者。其當時的首席執行官伯納多·伊斯在做出這些公告幾個月後辭職。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy83ODgwMDUvYm93bC1vZi1tYWNhcm9uaS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F788005%2Fbowl-of-macaroni.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Hees' successor, Miguel Patricio, guided the company through challenges until he stepped down and handed the reins over to Carlos Abrams-Rivera last year. Under those two CEOs, Kraft Heinz's stock has stabilized and risen about 14%. It's still well below its debut price, but I believe it's worth buying for five simple reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊斯的繼任者米格爾·帕特里西奧引導公司度過挑戰，直到去年辭職並將掌舵交給卡洛斯·阿布拉姆斯 - 裏韋拉。在這兩位首席執行官的領導下，卡夫亨氏的股價穩定並上漲約 14%。儘管仍遠低於首次上市價格，但我認為出於五個簡單原因，值得購買。</p>
</div><h2>1. Kraft Heinz overcame its previous problems</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 卡夫亨氏克服了以往的問題</h2>
</div><p>Many of Kraft Heinz's brands were struggling when Patricio took the helm. Consumers were gravitating toward healthier foods, and big grocery chains were evolving into tough competitors with their own private-label brands. Instead of streamlining its portfolio, refreshing its products, and launching new marketing campaigns to fend off those threats, Kraft Heinz's management focused too much on cutting costs and buying back its shares to boost its earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>帕特里西奧接任時，卡夫亨氏的許多品牌陷入困境。消費者開始偏愛更健康的食品，大型連鎖超市也逐漸成為擁有自有品牌的強大競爭對手。卡夫亨氏的管理層過於專注於削減成本和回購股份以提高每股收益（EPS），而非簡化其產品組合、更新產品，並推出新的營銷活動以抵禦這些威脅。</p>
</div><p>But under Patricio, Kraft Heinz divested its weaker brands to raise cash, acquired higher-growth brands, and refreshed its classic brands with new products and marketing campaigns. Those strategies put it in a good position to grow in 2020 and 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic drove more people to stock up on packaged foods. It also countered the inflationary headwinds in 2022 and 2023 by gradually raising its prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在帕特里西奧的領導下，卡夫亨氏剝離了較弱的品牌以籌集現金，收購了增長更快的品牌，並通過推出新產品和營銷活動為經典品牌注入新活力。這些策略使其在 2020 年和 2021 年有望實現增長，因為新冠疫情驅使更多人囤積包裝食品。它還通過逐漸提高價格來抵消 2022 年和 2023 年的通貨膨脹壓力。</p>
</div><h2>2. Its top-line growth has stabilized</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 其營收增長已穩定</h2>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's net sales growth -- which includes its divestments, acquisitions, and currency fluctuations -- was lumpy over the past five years. However, its organic sales stayed positive over the past four years as it reorganized its brand portfolio.</p>
<p>|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，卡夫亨氏的淨銷售增長（包括剝離、收購和貨幣波動）波動較大。然而，在過去四年中，隨着其重新組織品牌組合，其有機銷售保持為正。</p>
</div><p>Metric |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指標 |</p>
</div><p>2019 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2019 年 |</p>
</div><p>2020 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2020 年 |</p>
</div><p>2021 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2021 年 |</p>
</div><p>2022 |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2022 年 |</p>
</div><p>2023 |
|</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年 |
|</p>
</div><p>Organic sales growth |</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有機銷售增長 |</p>
</div><p>(1.7%) |</p>
<p>6.5% |</p>
<p>1.8% |</p>
<p>9.8% |</p>
<p>3.4% |
|</p>
<p>Net sales growth |</p>
<p>(4.9%) |</p>
<p>4.8% |</p>
<p>(0.5%) |</p>
<p>1.7% |</p>
<p>0.6% |</p>
<p>Data source: Kraft Heinz.</p>
<p>It expects its organic sales to dip 0% to 2% this year as it runs out of room to raise its prices in its international developed markets. That pressure is offsetting its successful price hikes in North America and its international emerging markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計今年其有機銷售將下降 0% 至 2%，因為在其國際發達市場中提價空間有限。這種壓力抵消了其在北美和國際新興市場成功提價的成果。</p>
</div><p>That slowdown might seem like a red flag, but its growth should accelerate again as inflation finally subsides. It's also been expanding its away-from-home segment with new products for restaurants and businesses, refreshing its older brands with new products, and mulling a divestment of Oscar Mayer to further streamline its organic growth. For now, analysts expect its net sales to grow at a slow but steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% from 2023 to 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種放緩可能看起來像一個警示信號，但隨着通貨膨脹最終消退，其增長應會再次加速。它還一直在擴大其面向外出用餐市場的產品範圍，為餐廳和企業推出新產品，更新舊品牌，並考慮剝離奧斯卡·梅耶以進一步簡化其有機增長。目前，分析師預計其淨銷售將從 2023 年到 2026 年以 1% 的緩慢但穩定的複合年增長率增長。</p>
</div><h2>3. Kraft Heinz's gross and operating margins are rising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 卡夫亨氏的毛利率和營運利潤率正在上升</h2>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's gross and operating margins were both compressed by inflation in 2022, but both metrics have expanded significantly over the past 18 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏的毛利率和營運利潤率在 2022 年受通貨膨脹的影響而受到擠壓，但這兩個指標在過去 18 個月中顯著擴大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8a7d65ce4eb3ba1aea79d634e3a0471e.png"/></p>
<p>Source: YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>For 2024, the company expects its adjusted gross margin to expand 75 to 125 basis points, and for its adjusted operating margin to rise by one to three percentage points. It also expects its adjusted EPS to grow 1% to 3% to $3.01 to $3.07 per share. Analysts expect its reported EPS to increase at a CAGR of 13% from 2023 to 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司預計，2024 年其調整後毛利率將擴大 75 至 125 個基點，其調整後營運利潤率將提高 1 至 3 個百分點。它還預計其調整後每股收益將增長 1% 至 3%，達到 3.01 至 3.07 美元。分析師預計其報告的每股收益將從 2023 年到 2026 年以 13% 的複合年增長率增加。</p>
</div><h2>4. Kraft Heinz has a low valuation and a high dividend yield</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 卡夫亨氏估值低，股息率高</h2>
</div><p>At $35, Kraft Heinz stock trades at just 12 times the midpoint of this year's earnings. In comparison, its industry peers <strong>General Mills</strong> and <strong>Mondelez</strong> trade at 16 and 21 times forward earnings, respectively. <strong>Kellanova</strong>, which recently agreed to be acquired by Mars, trades at 22 times forward earnings. That low valuation, along with its high forward dividend yield of 4.5%, should limit Kraft Heinz's downside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 35 美元的價格，卡夫亨氏股票交易僅為今年盈利中點的 12 倍。相比之下，其行業同行 <strong>通用磨坊</strong> 和 <strong>蒙德利茲</strong> 的前瞻性盈利分別為 16 倍和 21 倍。最近同意被馬氏收購的 <strong>凱拉諾娃</strong> 的前瞻性盈利為 22 倍。這種低估值，加上其高達 4.5% 的前瞻性股息率，應該限制卡夫亨氏的下行潛力。</p>
</div><h2>5. Warren Buffett still owns this stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 沃倫·巴菲特仍持有該股</h2>
</div><p>Last but not least, Warren Buffett's <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> -- which co-orchestrated Kraft's merger with Heinz -- continues to hold 26.9% of the company's outstanding shares. That $11.5 billion stake accounts for 3.7% of Berkshire's portfolio, and it wasn't trimmed or liquidated in its recent sales of several high-profile stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後但並非最不重要的是，沃倫·巴菲特的 <strong>伯克希爾 - 哈撒韋</strong> -- 與卡夫合併亨氏的合作方 -- 仍持有公司已發行股份的 26.9%。這一價值 115 億美元的股份佔伯克希爾投資組合的 3.7%，並未在最近出售幾家知名公司股票時減持或清倉。</p>
</div><p>Buffett's decision to stick with Kraft Heinz suggests its business isn't headed off a cliff. It certainly won't blast off anytime soon, but it should be a good place to park your cash and collect some decent dividends until the macro headwinds subside. So if you're looking for a good blue chip stock to buy as a safe haven play right now, Kraft Heinz checks a lot of the right boxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特決定繼續持有卡夫亨氏表明其業務並未走下坡路。它肯定不會立即起飛，但應該是一個不錯的地方來安置您的資金，並在宏觀風險消退之前收取一些可觀的股息。因此，如果您正在尋找一個作為避風港投資的優質藍籌股，卡夫亨氏符合許多正確選擇的條件。</p>
</div>

5 個理由讓你毫不猶豫地購買卡夫亨氏股票