<p>墨式燒烤（CMG 0.49%）剛剛經歷了一場大洗牌。長期擔任首席執行官（CEO）的 Brian Niccol 剛剛宣佈意外離職加入星巴克。自 2018 年加入以來，Niccol 在 Chipotle 實現了一次重大轉變，使股價上漲了 800%，成為世界上表現最好的股票之一。</p>
<p>離開一家公司，尤其是去競爭對手，總會讓投資者感到不安。因此，看到 Chipotle 股票在這一消息公佈後下跌並不奇怪。事實上，自 6 月份最近的股票分拆以來，股價已經下跌了 25%。這並不是 Chipotle 近 10 年來最糟糕的回落，但卻是其中一個最顯著的。以下是我對 Brian Niccol 時代接下來可能發生的預測。</p>
<h2>令人驚訝的 CEO 離職</h2>
<p>8 月 13 日，星巴克宣佈立即任命 Brian Niccol 為其首席執行官，這令人震驚。有兩個原因讓人大吃一驚。首先，星巴克此前並未告知投資者他們正在尋找新的首席執行官。其次，在公佈此消息時，Chipotle 的估值與星巴克相似，市值範圍在 750 億至 1000 億美元之間。與咖啡巨頭相比，Chipotle 有更清晰的門店擴張路徑，並在過去幾年表現比咖啡巨頭更出色。</p>
<p>那麼，Niccol 為什麼會離開去星巴克呢？我們可能永遠不會知道真實細節，但看起來 Niccol 可能認為 Chipotle 現在處於一個很好的位置，正在尋找他的下一個重大項目。自 2018 年加入 Chipotle 以來，他在餐廳遭遇可怕的食源性疾病爆發後，糾正了局面。</p>
<p>自他接管以來，該股票為投資者帶來了超過 800% 的回報，超過了同一時期星巴克的回報。Niccol 可能看到了改進星巴克業務的更多方式，並對他建立的文化感到滿意。或者，這可能只是為了金錢。</p>
<p>無論如何，這不應被視為對 Chipotle 業務的打擊。事實上，相反。自 Niccol 接管以來，Chipotle 的業務在過去幾年中蓬勃發展，自 Niccol 接管以來，每年都實現了正增長，甚至在 COVID-19 大流行期間也是如此。這就是為什麼該股票的市盈率（P/E）超過 50。投資者對 Chipotle 的未來充滿樂觀。</p>
<h2>新 CEO 的聘任是一項重要決定</h2>
<p>新 CEO 的聘任將是 Chipotle 投資者的重要時刻。管理變動總是伴隨着不確定性，尤其是對於像餐廳這樣的敏感運營。新領導者不會像 2018 年的 Niccol 那樣處境艱難，因為 Chipotle 的業務目前正處於全面發展之中，而 Niccol 則不得不在食物中毒事件後重建品牌。事實上，最大的風險是新 CEO 改變 Chipotle 的戰略並使情況變得更糟。你可能會説要毀掉它的墨西哥捲餅和碗的配方是不可能的，但你會驚訝於管理層多麼經常會損害一家曾經受人喜愛的企業。</p>
<p>我們以前看到過很多次。星巴克在過去多次在長期首席執行官 Howard Schultz 離開公司時陷入困境。即使在餐飲行業之外，迪士尼也經歷過一段時間內管理層不一致，這損害了運營。新 CEO 沒有保證會打破 Chipotle 的勢頭。但也沒有保證他們會成功。與 Niccol 不同，投資者對他是一位強大的領導者有很高的確定性，今天存在不確定性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png"/></p>
<p>CMG 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts。</p>
<h2>股票的下一步是什麼？</h2>
<p>Chipotle 和其新 CEO 有三種可能的結果。要麼他們改善，保持，或損害 Chipotle 的餐廳運營。考慮到 Brian Niccol 可能是整個餐飲行業最好的領導者，我對新 CEO 能夠從這裏有意義地改善 Chipotle 的業務表示懷疑。它可以繼續增加運營的餐廳數量（上季末為 3,530 家），但在優化餐廳業務方面，公司已經耗盡了在黃金地段開設新餐廳的可能性。這歸根結底是一個簡單的模式。</p>
<p>因此，Chipotle 將在新 CEO 的領導下保持其出色表現或變得更糟。然而，即使 Chipotle 保持其卓越表現，我認為投資者應對該股保持謹慎。它的市盈率為 53，是標準普爾 500 指數平均水平的兩倍左右。</p>
<p>假設銷售額和淨利潤在未來五年增長 100%（過去五年增長速度相同），很難爭辯説這支股票值得擁有。假設利潤率保持穩定，這隻會將 Chipotle 的市盈率降至 26.5，這在未來五年的基礎上並不便宜。</p>
<p>綜合考慮，Chipotle 股票似乎正在定價大量增長和對未來幾年的高期望，無論新 CEO 是誰。儘管其過去表現強勁，但這表明投資者應遠離購買 Chipotle 股票。暫時將其列入觀察名單。</p>

墨式燒烤

<p>Chipotle 的股價在首席執行官 Brian Niccol 意外離職並加盟星巴克後下跌了 25%。自 2018 年以來，Niccol 為公司帶來了 800% 的回報，但他的離職引發了投資者的擔憂。新 CEO 的表現至關重要，因為管理層變動可能會給運營帶來不確定性。Chipotle 的表現可能出現三種潛在結果：改善、維持或下降。鑑於其高達 53 的市盈率，即使公司保持強勁的業績紀錄，投資者也應謹慎行事</p>

<p>A big shake-up just hit <strong>Chipotle Mexican Grill</strong>(CMG 0.49%). Longtime chief executive officer (CEO) Brian Niccol just announced a surprising departure to <strong>Starbucks</strong>. Niccol has been instrumental in delivering a turnaround for Chipotle after its foodborne illness outbreaks, leading the stock to 800% returns since joining in 2018, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the world over that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨式燒烤（CMG 0.49%）剛剛經歷了一場大洗牌。長期擔任首席執行官（CEO）的 Brian Niccol 剛剛宣佈意外離職加入星巴克。自 2018 年加入以來，Niccol 在 Chipotle 實現了一次重大轉變，使股價上漲了 800%，成為世界上表現最好的股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Leaving a company -- especially for a competitor -- will always upset investors. It is no surprise, then, to see Chipotle stock falling on this news. In fact, the stock has taken a 25% dive since its recent stock split in June. This is not the worst drawdown ever for Chipotle, but one of the most significant in the last 10 years. Here's my prediction for what comes next with the Brian Niccol era over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>離開一家公司，尤其是去競爭對手，總會讓投資者感到不安。因此，看到 Chipotle 股票在這一消息公佈後下跌並不奇怪。事實上，自 6 月份最近的股票分拆以來，股價已經下跌了 25%。這並不是 Chipotle 近 10 年來最糟糕的回落，但卻是其中一個最顯著的。以下是我對 Brian Niccol 時代接下來可能發生的預測。</p>
</div><h2>A surprising CEO exit</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>令人驚訝的 CEO 離職</h2>
</div><p>On Aug. 13, Starbucks announced it had hired Brian Niccol away from Chipotle as its CEO, effective immediately. This was a shocker for two reasons. First, Starbucks had not previously told investors it was looking for a new CEO. Second, Chipotle's valuation was similar to that of Starbucks at the time of the announcement, with a market cap range of $75 billion to $100 billion. It also has a clearer path to store expansion and has put up much better performance over the last few years compared to the coffee giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8 月 13 日，星巴克宣佈立即任命 Brian Niccol 為其首席執行官，這令人震驚。有兩個原因讓人大吃一驚。首先，星巴克此前並未告知投資者他們正在尋找新的首席執行官。其次，在公佈此消息時，Chipotle 的估值與星巴克相似，市值範圍在 750 億至 1000 億美元之間。與咖啡巨頭相比，Chipotle 有更清晰的門店擴張路徑，並在過去幾年表現比咖啡巨頭更出色。</p>
</div><p>So why did Niccol leave for Starbucks? We may never know the real details, but it seems like Niccol may have thought Chipotle was in a great place and was now looking for his next big project. After Niccol arrived at Chipotle in 2018, he righted the ship after the terrible foodborne illness outbreaks at its restaurants.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，Niccol 為什麼會離開去星巴克呢？我們可能永遠不會知道真實細節，但看起來 Niccol 可能認為 Chipotle 現在處於一個很好的位置，正在尋找他的下一個重大項目。自 2018 年加入 Chipotle 以來，他在餐廳遭遇可怕的食源性疾病爆發後，糾正了局面。</p>
</div><p>The stock has returned over 800% for investors since he had taken over the reins, crushing Starbucks' returns over that same time period. Niccol may see more ways to improve the Starbucks business and feels comfortable with the culture he has built. Or, it might just be the money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自他接管以來，該股票為投資者帶來了超過 800% 的回報，超過了同一時期星巴克的回報。Niccol 可能看到了改進星巴克業務的更多方式，並對他建立的文化感到滿意。或者，這可能只是為了金錢。</p>
</div><p>Either way, this shouldn't be taken as a knock on Chipotle's business. In fact, it says the opposite. Chipotle's business has thrived over the past few years, posting positive same-store sales growth every year since Niccol took over, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is why the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) above 50. Investors are optimistic about the future for Chipotle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，這不應被視為對 Chipotle 業務的打擊。事實上，相反。自 Niccol 接管以來，Chipotle 的業務在過去幾年中蓬勃發展，自 Niccol 接管以來，每年都實現了正增長，甚至在 COVID-19 大流行期間也是如此。這就是為什麼該股票的市盈率（P/E）超過 50。投資者對 Chipotle 的未來充滿樂觀。</p>
</div><h2>The new CEO hire is a vital decision</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>新 CEO 的聘任是一項重要決定</h2>
</div><p>The new CEO hire will be a big moment for Chipotle investors. Management changes always come with uncertainty, especially with delicate operations such as restaurants. The new leader won't be in as difficult as a spot as Niccol in 2018, with Chipotle's business firing on all cylinders at the moment while Niccol had to rebuild the brand after the food poisonings. In fact, the biggest risk is that the new CEO changes up Chipotle's strategy and makes things worse. You might say it is impossible to mess up its burrito and Mexican bowl formula, but you'd be surprised how often management can impair a once-loved business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新 CEO 的聘任將是 Chipotle 投資者的重要時刻。管理變動總是伴隨着不確定性，尤其是對於像餐廳這樣的敏感運營。新領導者不會像 2018 年的 Niccol 那樣處境艱難，因為 Chipotle 的業務目前正處於全面發展之中，而 Niccol 則不得不在食物中毒事件後重建品牌。事實上，最大的風險是新 CEO 改變 Chipotle 的戰略並使情況變得更糟。你可能會説要毀掉它的墨西哥捲餅和碗的配方是不可能的，但你會驚訝於管理層多麼經常會損害一家曾經受人喜愛的企業。</p>
</div><p>We've seen it happen many times before. Starbucks has struggled multiple times in the past when longtime CEO Howard Schultz left the company. Even outside the restaurant industry, <strong>Disney</strong> has gone through bouts of inconsistent managers that have hampered operations. There's no guarantee the new CEO will break Chipotle's momentum. But there's no guarantee they will succeed, either. There is uncertainty today as opposed to with Niccol, who investors had high certainty was a strong leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們以前看到過很多次。星巴克在過去多次在長期首席執行官 Howard Schultz 離開公司時陷入困境。即使在餐飲行業之外，迪士尼也經歷過一段時間內管理層不一致，這損害了運營。新 CEO 沒有保證會打破 Chipotle 的勢頭。但也沒有保證他們會成功。與 Niccol 不同，投資者對他是一位強大的領導者有很高的確定性，今天存在不確定性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b1f2a98421bc263a483411374cc1bd83.png"/></p>
<p>CMG Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMG 營收（TTM）數據來源：YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>What comes next for the stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票的下一步是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>There are three possible outcomes for Chipotle and its new CEO. Either they improve, maintain, or impair Chipotle's restaurant operations. Given that Brian Niccol might be the best leader in the entire restaurant industry, I have doubts a new CEO can meaningfully improve Chipotle's business can from here. It can keep growing the number of restaurants in operation (3,530 at the end of last quarter) for a long while, but there is only so much you can do to optimize the restaurant business, especially if the company has exhausted its possibilities of opening new restaurants in prime locations. It is a simple model at the end of the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chipotle 和其新 CEO 有三種可能的結果。要麼他們改善，保持，或損害 Chipotle 的餐廳運營。考慮到 Brian Niccol 可能是整個餐飲行業最好的領導者，我對新 CEO 能夠從這裏有意義地改善 Chipotle 的業務表示懷疑。它可以繼續增加運營的餐廳數量（上季末為 3,530 家），但在優化餐廳業務方面，公司已經耗盡了在黃金地段開設新餐廳的可能性。這歸根結底是一個簡單的模式。</p>
</div><p>So, Chipotle will either maintain its stellar performance or get worse under the new CEO. However, even if Chipotle maintains its excellence, I think investors should be cautious about the stock. It trades at a P/E of 53, which is around double the <strong>S&amp;P</strong> <strong>500</strong> index average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Chipotle 將在新 CEO 的領導下保持其出色表現或變得更糟。然而，即使 Chipotle 保持其卓越表現，我認為投資者應對該股保持謹慎。它的市盈率為 53，是標準普爾 500 指數平均水平的兩倍左右。</p>
</div><p>Assuming sales and net profit grow by 100% over the next five years (the former grew at the same pace over the last five years), it's hard to argue the stock is worth owning. Assuming consistent profit margins, that would only bring down Chipotle's P/E to 26.5, which is not cheap on a five-year forward basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假設銷售額和淨利潤在未來五年增長 100%（過去五年增長速度相同），很難爭辯説這支股票值得擁有。假設利潤率保持穩定，這隻會將 Chipotle 的市盈率降至 26.5，這在未來五年的基礎上並不便宜。</p>
</div><p>Add it altogether, and it looks like Chipotle stock is pricing in a ton of growth and high expectations for the next few years, no matter who the CEO would be. Despite its strong historical performance, this indicates investors should stay away from buying Chipotle stock. Keep this one on the watch list for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合考慮，Chipotle 股票似乎正在定價大量增長和對未來幾年的高期望，無論新 CEO 是誰。儘管其過去表現強勁，但這表明投資者應遠離購買 Chipotle 股票。暫時將其列入觀察名單。</p>
</div>

墨式燒烤在失去 CEO 後股價下跌 25%：我對未來走勢的預測